MCN Originals

Friday Box Office Estimates

Justice League has a better Friday/Thursday Night than Wonder Woman, but is estimated by some to open to less than Wonder Woman over the 3-day. Is WB convincing box office writers to underestimate the weekend now so that a still-soft $105 million opening for the film will seem like a win tomorrow? Probably. Meanwhile, Lionsgate is looking at its best non-Power Rangers opening in over a year, opening Wonder to $9.6 million on Friday with a good chance of gaining strength over the weekend with an appeal to younger audiences and women. Lady Bird expands nicely, as does Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Season of a Different Color

I don’t know if this will be an #OscarSoWhite year. But even if Denzel Washington and Octavia Spencer are nominated, it will be the same way as two seasons ago… and likely, two seasons into the future.

The problem is not how many nominations people of color get from The Academy. The problem is that we have such a small group of “movies of color” for Academy members to consider.

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The DVD Wrapup: Wind River, Unlocked, In This Corner of the World, Funeral Parade of Roses, Zoology, Romero Redux, Indiscretion and more

What makes Wind River compelling is how Sheridan integrates it into the depiction of life above the tree line both for humans and animals.

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The Weekend Report

Thor: Ragnarok rocked and yokked to the top once more with an estimated $57.3 million. A pair of new national releases started out well: Daddy’s Home 2 took with $29.7 million while the remake of Murder on the Orient Express came into the station with $28.3 million.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

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The Gronvall Report: “Planet of the Apes” Costar Terry Notary Takes Center Stage in “The Square”

“They were real art-world people: donors, billionaire donors, owners of galleries, and famous photographers, and some singers, too. He didn’t tell me any of that. Only on the last day did he say, ‘Do you know who you’ve been throwing water on? A billionaire donor; she’s actually the biggest donor in Sweden.'”

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Gurus o’ Gold: Pick The Winners Way Too Early

As The Gurus get into the weekly habit of prognosticating again, there was no messing around. Who is going to win? The Gurus, who are insightful, but not fools, didn’t vote for any of the movies or performances that haven’t yet been shown widely (that changes over Thanksgiving). For a “wide open season,” there are a bunch of categories that seem surprisingly close to settled in the minds of The Gurus.

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The DVD Wrapup: King George, Cars 3, Overdrive, Afterimage, Glass Castle, Whisky Galore, The Journey, Into the Night, Sissi, Stay Hungry and more

Even if Olive Films weren’t presenting its Blu-ray release of The Madness of King George as a cautionary tale, it would be difficult for any American – Republicans included – not to draw parallels to our current political predicament.

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The Weekend Report

Marvel Studios has its best off-summer opening by a large margin with Thor: Ragnarok. When everyone is following their zig, they zag. (Universal should partner on a Hulk movie. There is too much money in play not to consider it.) A Bad Moms Christmas made a number of mistakes on its way to theaters (including opening an adult Christmas movie on November 3), but $21.5m at the end of opening weekend is only a little off the original, which did five times its opening. Lady Bird delivered the biggest per-screen opening of 2017, just shy of $100k. One of the three or four likely Best Picture nominees at this late date, it delivered appropriately.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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The DVD Wrapup and Gift Guide I: Fellini, Ernie Kovacs, Green Acres, Carol Burnett, Person-to-Person and more

It’s difficult to imagine discovering a movie by Federico Fellini that lovers of foreign films haven’t seen at least once. In the case of Arrow Academy’s “The Voice of the Moon: Special Edition” Blu-ray, “discovery” might not be the right term. The Maestro’s final feature has been sitting around in plain sight for more than a quarter-century, just waiting for some distributor to give it a whirl. Better late than never.

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20 Weeks To Oscar: The Known Unknown

I see no rhyme nor reason to hang onto trying to figure out which of this group will be The Ones. I think I can guess 6 with pretty high assurance. But others would intensely disagree. It gets more complicated because many people will get excited about more than 10 of these titles. And there aren’t enough slots.

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The Weekend Report

There was no puzzling as the debut of Jigsaw ascended to the top of the weekend with an estimated $16.2 million. Two other films bowed nationally to dismal results in a depressed marketplace. Thank You for Your Service — a story of returning soldiers from Iraq — opened to $3.7 million while the Coens-penned comedy Suburbicon fled with $2.8 million.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

There are a lot of reasons why the Saw franchise didn’t resurrect itself this weekend. For one, its fanbase is out of college now, it’s been seven years since the last film, and maybe not quite ready for nostalgia. For another, the potential audience that might have been drawn in now may not be clear on what the marketing was selling, aside from cool, fast-cut shots of mayhem. Meanwhile, the other two releases (Thank You For Your Service, Suburbicon) felt – much as the films last week did – like their distributors were slow-playing them. One can’t tell from Los Angeles how U was selling their film to military families and the red states, but it didn’t connect there either. Suburbicon got slaughtered in Toronto and served up this weekend.

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The DVD Wrapup: Inconvenient Sequel, Good Catholic, Midwife, Old Dark House, Dawn of Dead, and more

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power delivers a wide-ranging, visually appealing exploration of where, exactly, the planet is now. Gore serves as a scientist, preacher and tour guide through everything from increasingly dramatic weather patterns – even before the current rash of hurricanes, fires and floods — to the changing attitudes among world leaders and the value of photographing the Earth from space. As such, Sequel delivers a slightly more positive and optimistic message.

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Gurus o’ Gold: Early Line

The Gurus are back a week early this year, launching with Best Picture, Acting categories and Director. If this early look matched nominations exactly (which, of course, it won’t), the only nominated actor of color would be Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water, and Get Out would get a Best Picture nod. Also of note, a big showing from Call Me By Your Name, as well as a female directing nominee.

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The Weekend Report

Amid more tricks than treats the debut of Boo 2! A Madea Halloween emerged as box office leader with an estimated $21.6 million. Four other national releases struggled and sputtered for attention. Audiences were cool to Geostorm’s global warming maelstrom which grossed $13.3 million and were frigid to based-on-fact Only the Brave about doomed firefighters that opened to $5.9 million. It didn’t help that the director of The Snowman — based on the Jo Nesbø bestseller — disowned the film, which sank with $3.4 million. The faithful departed from Same Kind of Different from Me, with had a $2.6 million box office.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The only movie with a shot at $20 million is Boo 2! A Madea Halloween while four other wide releases crash and burn. All kinds of excuses are flying, but the basics are: the marketing didn’t inspire. Another classic… titles that don’t mean anything. If you asked someone who doesn’t watch trailers what Geostorm, Only The Brave, and The Snowman were about based on those titles, no one would come close. People do know what to expect from Madea, though it doesn’t look like this Halloween comedy will come close to matching the first Boo.The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Wonderstruck, and Jane will all open with over $10k per screen in exclusives.

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The DVD Wrapup: Lady Macbeth, Girls Trip, Moka, Chicago, American Gods and more

s as if a sympathetic visitor had left a copy of Gustave Flaubert’s recently published “Madame Bovary” within her reach, hoping it would spark Katherine’s desire for something more substantial than practicing her needlepoint and making sure the surfaces are being dusted. When their relationship becomes the subject of village gossip, Katherine concocts plans that would leave her the true head of the estate. Viewers may not be able to precisely identify the peril that looms just over the horizon, but we know it can’t possibly bode well for the weak-willed Sebastian. In an interesting decision, Oldroyd and screenwriter Alice Birch elected to make three key characters of African descent. The story practically ignores their race, leaving the audience to make of the casting what it will.

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The Weekend Report

The confluence of a Friday the 13th debut and the upcoming All Hallows Eve celebrations propelled Happy Death Day to the top of weekend viewing with an estimated $26.5 million. The session’s other wide release, actioner The Foreigner, slotted third with $12.8 million.

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MCN Originals

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Justice League 38.8 4051 New 38.8
Wonder 9.6 3096 New 9.6
Thor: Ragnarok 5.8 4080 -68% 231.4
Murder on the Orient Express 4.1 3354 -62% 42
Daddy's Home 2 3.9 3575 -64% 39.7
The Star 2.8 2837 New 2.8
A Bad Moms Christmas 2.3 2948 -44% 46.3
Lady Bird 0.7 238 83% 2.9
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 0.3 53 215% 0.75
Jigsaw 0.3 1201 -72% 35.7
Also Debuting
Theeran Adhigaaram Ondru 75,300 93
Tumhari Sulu 53,000 62
Roman J. Israel, Esq. 22,800 4
Verna 12,400 23
The Ghost Bride 11,300 39
Prematho Mee Karthik 7,100 24
The Breadwinner 4,400 3
On the Beach at Night Alone 3,350 2
The Crime of Monsieur Lange (reissue) 2,400 1
Mudbound 1,850 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4