Box Office Archive for September, 2007

Klady's Sunday Estimate – Sept 30



Klady's Friday Estimates

If you are looking for history this weekend, the last weekend of September will find you The Rock in The Rundown ($18.5m start) and Disney releasing The Guardian ($18m start) . Or perhaps you like Remember The Titans ($20.9m) and Open Season ($23.6m) and The Corpse Bride ($19.1m).
Actually, last year it was Open Season vs The Guardian


Box Office Hell – Sept 28

(updated Fri night with EW and BO Prophets)


Sunday Estimates by Klady

First note, A Correction – Len Klady’s Friday Estimates had The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford at 15 screens when today, he is at the 5 that has been reported elsewhere. Our apologies to our readers.
And then…
Nothing a whole lot else to talk about.
The big exclusive openings of Into The Wild and Jesse James are very nice


Friday Estimate by Klady

As is so often the case, both tracking and box office weight guessers underestimate the junk and overestimate the quality stuff. If there is anything consistent about tracking and its misuse, it is this.
Look for the Resident Evil sequel to open a bit better than the last sequel, assuring


Box Office Hell



Sunday Estimates by Klady – Sept 16



Klady's Friday Estimates – Sept 14

This will be Jodie Foster’s weakest mainstream opening of the last decade aside from 1999’s Anna & The King, which opened the week before Christmas, which is traditionally a grower slot, not a show-er slot. The question over at Warners will be whether they played this one right. The film is not actually “Death Wish With A Chick.” It is more complex than that. But how to sell more complex? More importantly, how do you sell to women, for whom Foster is an embodiment of power? Power is great, but do they really want to see her shoot bullets? After all, she is a strong woman in previous films who doesn’t end up firing the gun. Interesting.
Meanwhile, what is The Weinstein Co getting out of Mr. Woodcock? Damned near the same thing they got out of School For Scoundrels. Even The Bad News Bears didn’t open much better. Clearly there is an audience who wants to see Billy Bob Thornton hit people in the balls… but it is a specific and limited group. The difference with Bad Santa? It turned out to be a really good film. But at the start… similar numbers.
I guess someone knew Dragon Wars was opening… not me.
As for Across The Universe and Eastern Promises, you’re going to have to find more than 250 people per screening on fewer than 25 screens each to impress me that you have anything other than high profile talent that people have some interest in seeing.
The Taymor/Beatles film has some good ammunition in the Fab Four and the thumbed Ebert, who raved the film. I expect to see a lot of towns like Toronto, where the critic at one paper gave an absolute rave and the other nearly threatened to burn down the cinema. Sony has a challenge on its hands and whether the movie is actually good or bad (it’s both, actually) has little to do with it. Is there an audience that will pay to see a really complex, beautiful, star-free (domestically, at least… the stars of significance are mostly European) film… will the teen girls show up… or are they just going to wait for that DVD? I don’t get the feeling that this is MTV’s movie of the season… but then again, I have been in a country where MuchMusic dominates MTV for the last couple of weeks.
In the Valley of Elah is the sad story of the weekend, drawing fewer than 100 people per screening of the film on Friday. It is a film for adults, who are notoriously slow to get to the theater, so it will do a little better as the weekend progresses and perhaps over its run. But the must-see is dusty. Crash, by the way, opened on 1864 screens back in 2005. So comparisons are impossible.
I bow to the holding power of The Bourne Ultimatum.
And the quick death of Shoot ‘Em Up once again proves one of my favorite theories… The Geek 8. Unfortunately, this time it was The Geek 5.7. However, the film’s marketing never found a single reason for a woman or non-geek adult to show up for the film. And unless you are happy grossing under $20 million, you HAVE to find another segment, no matter how strong you feel in the geek universe. (I’d be curious to hear from AICNers about why they think that even the geeks didn’t show up in full force for this one.)


Box Office Hell – Sept 14



Sunday Estimates by Klady – Sept 9



Friday Estimates by Klady – 9/7



Monday Estimates by Klady



Friday Estimates by Klady – 8/31

Halloween is doing well, though it is a little behind industry expectations based on tracking this last week (except at the studio advising one drudgey blogger what to think). As of Wednesday, the buzz around town was of a $30 million 3-day and a $37 million 4-day. Given that horror films often lead off strong on Friday and drop on Saturday, as date night overwhelms boys night out, the numbers should be more like $26m/$31m. But still… excellent for a film that was mostly written off earlier this summer. I would imagine that this remake of a classic will turn out have had a much higher interest from young women than would seem fitting for a Rob Zombie film.
Balls of Fury will open to an “a least it opened to something” number, but no surprise power play there. And Death Sentence is about… anyone… anyone? Hard to find an audience without really selling the movie. And though I haven’t seen the film, my understanding is that a lot of people think it deserved better.
And yes, for those who seem to think that my earlier comments were equal to a nuclear disaster of some kind, it is clear that The Bourne Ultimatum, which continues to hold remarkably well, is going to hit $200 million, getting to about $198 million by Monday night.


Box Office

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“The thought is interrupted by an odd interlude. We are speaking in the side room of Casita, a swish and fairly busy Italian bistro in Aoyama – a district of Tokyo usually so replete with celebrities that they spark minimal fuss. Kojima’s fame, however, exceeds normal limits and adoring staff have worked out who their guest is. He stops mid-sentence and points up towards the speakers, delighted. The soft jazz that had been playing discreetly across the restaurant’s dark, hardwood interior has suddenly been replaced with the theme music from some of Kojima’s hit games. Harry Gregson-Williams’ music is sublime in its context but ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’ is not, Kojima acknowledges, terribly restauranty. He pauses, adjusting a pair of large, blue-framed glasses of his own design, and returns to the way in which games have not only influenced films, but have also changed the way in which people watch them. “There are stories being told [in cinema] that my generation may find surprising but which the gamer generation doesn’t find weird at all,” he says.
~ Hideo Kojima

“They’re still talking about the ‘cathedral of cinema,’ the ‘communal experience,’ blah blah. The experiences I’ve had recently in the theatre have not been good. There’s commercials, noise, cellphones. I was watching Colette at the Varsity, and halfway through red flashes came up at the bottom of the frame. A woman came out and said, ‘We’re going to have to reboot, so take fifteen minutes and come back.’ Then they rebooted it from the beginning, and she had to ask the audience to tell her how far to go. You tell me, is that a great experience? I generally don’t watch movies in a cinema at all. Netflix is the future. It’s the present. But the whole paradigm of a series, binge-watching, it’s quite different. My first reaction is that it’s more novelistic, because if you have an eight-hour season, you can get into complex, intricate things. You can let it breathe and the audience expectations are such that they will let you, where before they wouldn’t have the patience. I think only the surface has been touched with experimenting with that.”
~ David Cronenberg