Box Office Archive for July, 2007

Stat O' The Day

For those of you wondering…
Ove the first 90 days of Summer, 2007 is once again the Best Summer Ever
2007 – $2.87b
2006

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Sunday Estimates by Klady – July 27

The Simpsons reminds us, yet again, at how silly it is for all of us/any of us to be throwing around OPT (Other People

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Friday Estimates by Klady… Simpsonize

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Box Office Hell – 7/27

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(Updated @ 2:19p to include late, post-east coast matinee, post-BO Hell posting entries by La Fnke.)

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Sunday Estimates by Klady

The most predictable number this weekend was Chuck & Larry. It

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Friday Estimates by Klady

Sorry this took so long to post today

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Box Office Hell – 7/20/07

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Late Night At The Movies

It felt like good news for Hairspray at the Arclight in Hollywood on Thursday night. The 12:01am show in The Dome had about 500 people, about 90% of whom appeared to be under 30. That is the core audience if Hairspray is to be a hit, with due respect to the much-smirked about gay musical loving crowd.
On the other hand, I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry was only about 15% full.
Of course, Los Angeles tends to be a horrible indicator and it is likely that the Sandler film will be #1 for the weekend, ahead of Hairspray. But still

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Weekend Estimates by Klady

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Friday Estimates by Klady

The box office story of Summer

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Box Office Hell – Friday The 13th

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(Updated, Fri 1:50… to include EW’s #s)

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Klady's Sunday Estimates – 7/8/7

So Transformers made it to their $150 million six day, now the third biggest opening of the summer and the second best July 4 opening ever, after Spider-Man 2. $300 million domestic is now likely inevitable… as suggested by the same history that suggested that Transformers would have a hard time pulling off the 150/6.
Ratatouille is pulling up to Cars, now just $4m behind after starting $13 million behind. Could The Rat catch up and surpass the autos next weekend? Perhaps.
For a movie written off, $17 million in six for License To Wed is not so horrible. A lot of people would have assumed $30 million was out of range for this title.
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Friday Estimates by Klady – 7/7/7

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A Little Perspective To Chew On

Again… I don’t know what will happen in the next four days… and neither does anyone else.
Transformers has had a great start. Roughly a Top 20 all-time start so far.
But do keep in mind that the unique numbers have more than a little to do with the uniqueness of the opening schedule. Just last summer, The Omen had The Biggest Tuesday Opening Ever. What we will know on Saturday (and a bit when the Thursday numbers land) is whether Transformers has shot its wad or if it has more in the tank.
Theories about how this effects Harry Potter or vice versa are all well and good, but all theory. The closest thing to a real test of what might happen is Shrek 3 to Pirates 3. But even then, you are looking at huge 3-day vs huge 3-day. Here, Potter is a 5-day and Transformers first weekend a 6. I think we can safely assume now that the Autobots will not have a 55% or greater second weekend drop as so much of the intensity of the opening will have been siphoned off in the first three days. But the second week drop could be very, very high. Still, apples and oranges. It’s good for Paramount because they can spin every which way if it is not all as positive as it feels today. Azkaban had $116m in six with a straight Friday opening two summers ago, third best of the series. So with a Wed opening, could it be significantly bigger? We’ll see.
Here is a list of the top six-day openings, according to Box Office Mojo. I have added short night early openings (including 8p and 10p shows in various cases) so that we can be completely fair to Transformers. My sense is and has been that the answer is about the end of the first weekend, not the day count. $15 million on Thursday and $60 for the weekend would put the film at roughly $140 million and in the top ten of openings and still, fourth best this summer. Better than that is… well, duh… better than that. Spider-Man 2, which has been the best 4th of July opening is still $115 million away from Transformers‘ 6-day with 4 days to go. But if all four days are as good as Transformers best day to date, it can best the record.
1 Pirates of the Caribbean 2 $183,661,469 $423,315,812 F, 7/7/06
2 Star Wars: Episode III $182,710,218 $380,270,577 Th, 5/19/05
3 Spider-Man 2 $180,072,888 $373,585,825 W, 6/30/04
4 Spider-Man 3 $176,161,954 $333,969,352 F, 5/4/07
5 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 $167,236,619 $298,013,394 F, 5/25/07
6 The Matrix Reloaded $151,919,513 $281,576,461 Th, 5/15/03
7 Shrek the Third $144,478,827 $314,858,394 F, 5/18/07
8 Spider-Man $144,156,124 $403,706,375 F, 5/3/02
9 Shrek 2 $140,495,380 $441,226,247 W, 5/19/04
10 The Lord of the Rings 3 $137,663,742 $377,027,325 W, 12/17/03
11 X-Men 3 $135,955,809 $234,362,462 F, 5/26/06
12 The Passion of the Christ $135,317,847 $370,274,604 W, 2/25/04
13 Harry Potter 4 $133,873,907 $290,013,036 F, 11/18/05

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Transformer Weekend

Obviously, $36.3m in a day and a half is very strong… as always, we will have no idea what it all adds up to until it actually starts adding up. Could be War of the Worlds… could be Spider-Man 2… could, in theory, be the biggest July 4 movie ever.
20% of the films that opened bigger never got to $250m, including 300, X2, and The Da Vinci Code, none of which hit $220m domestic. If Transformers turned out to be 300, X2, or X3 worldwide, Paramount would be in a fight to make money with the film… a lot depending on how much they get from Hasbro’s sales.
On the other hand, if Don Murphy turned out to be right and the film becomes the 26th film in history to make $300 domestic in real dollars, it is likely to crack $650 million worldwide, as there are no examples in the last 20 years of a film not hitting that 650 after doing 300 at home.

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Box Office

Quote Unquotesee all »

“I’ve been pleasantly surprised by how many recappers, while clearly over their heads, are baseline sympathetic to finding themselves routinely unmoored, even if that means repeating over and over that this is closer to “avant-garde art” than  normal TV to meet the word count. My feed was busy connecting the dots to Peter Tscherkassky (gas station), Tony Conrad (the giant staring at feedback of what we’ve just seen), Pat O’Neill (bombs away) et al., and this is all apposite — visual and conceptual thinking along possibly inadvertent parallel lines. If recappers can’t find those exact reference points to latch onto, that speaks less to willful ignorance than to how unfortunately severed experimental film is from nearly all mainstream discussions of film because it’s generally hard to see outside of privileged contexts (fests, academia, the secret knowledge of a self-preserving circle working with a very finite set of resources and publicity access to the larger world); resources/capital/access/etc. So I won’t assign demerits for willful incuriosity, even if some recappers are reduced, in some unpleasantly condescending/bluffing cases, to dismissing this as a “student film” — because presumably experimentation is something the seasoned artist gets out of their system in maturity, following the George Lucas Model of graduating from Bruce Conner visuals to Lawrence Kasdan’s screenwriting.”
~ Vadim Rizov Goes For It, A Bit

“On the first ‘Twin Peaks,’ doing TV was like going from a mansion to a hut. But the arthouses are gone now, so cable television is a godsend — they’re the new art houses. You’ve got tons of freedom to do the work you want to do on TV, but there is a restriction in terms of picture and sound. The range of television is restricted. It’s hard for the power and the glory to come through. In other words, you can have things in a theater much louder and also much quieter. With TV, the quieter things have to be louder and the louder things have to be quieter, so you have less dynamics. The picture quality — it’s fine if you have a giant television with a good speaker system, but a lot of people will watch this on their laptops or whatever, so the picture and the sound are going to suffer big time. Optimally, people should be watching TV in a dark room with no disturbances and with as big and good a picture as possible and with as great sound as possible.”
~ David Lynch