Box Office Archive for October, 2006

Sunday Estimates by Klady

Not much more to say about Saw III

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Friday Estimates

Saw III is off to a faster start that either of the first two films, sight unseen. Basically, on this series, Lionsgate does what is otherwise the skill set of Screen Gems or Dimension. Solid, simple, sell to one audience and one audience only.
The Prestige has a shot at $45 million or $50 million, which is no disaster, but no thrill either. Look for foreign to be stronger. And Flags of Our Fathers may not get to $30 million, which is an indicator of audience word-of-mouth, regardless of whether some major critics have embraced the film.
As we work through the awards season, critics are far overvalued as are groups like HFPA. The former only makes major waves when throwing a light as a group on a specific film or performance. The latter is in the game of guessing what the Academy voters will think. Neither answers the specific question… what will 6000 middle-aged and elderly Academy voters love?
That is why Babel is not nearly as muscular a player as some would have you believe and Flags is in trouble. It is also why Munich got nominated last year, in spite of scathing attacks from some angry critics. (That one should also remind us that if our sense of the whys changes depending on how we personally feel about a film, we will endup being wrong more often than not.) Reverse Analysis is significant, in that an understanding of history does matter. But as a predictor, it is pretty iffy.
And the danger of being perceived as underperforming at the box office is the good reason why smaller quality films wait for December. If a film like The Hours goes out in December in limited release and doesn’t soar, it is seen as needing space. If a Ron Howard film opens in summer and doesn’t hit $100 million, it is seen as a failure. And The Academy does not, with a few exceptions, vote to nominate failures.
Open Season will quietly become Sony Animation

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Another Travel Day…

Here is some box office…
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And 20 Weeks, 18 Weeks To Go
Can you smell it? Come on, take a good, deep whiff

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Klady's Weekend Estimates

I don

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Friday Estimates By Klady

Movie | Friday | Screens | % Chg | Cume
The Prestige | 5.1 | 2281 | New | 5.1
The Departed | 4.2 | 3005 | -26% | 67.7
Flags of our Fathers | 3.4 | 1876 | New | 3.4
The Grudge 2 | 2.7 | 3214 | -73% | 26.4
Flicka | 2.1 | 3379 | New | 2.4
Open Season | 2.4 | 2877 | -23% | 61.6
Man of the Year | 2.1 | 2522 | -48% | 17.6
Marie Antoinette | 1.9 | 859 | New | 1.9
Texas Chainsaw Mass | 1.2 | 2569 | -59% | 33.4
Nightmare Before X /3D | 1.1 | 168 | New | 1.1
Also Debuting
Don | 0.22 | 113
Running with Scissors | 67,000 | 8
Jaan-E-Mann | 28,500 | 40
Sleeping Dogs Lie | 3,000 | 6
51 Birch Street | 2,800 | 2 –
Jonestown | 2,650 | 1

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Taking On False Prophets In The Hot Button

No one has looked over this Hot Button column, so I am afraid there will be some typos that I missed, but I am here on the island and felt it was worth pushing this out… not only so you could have something to discuss, but because this scam needs some calling out…
The Hot Button, Oct 18

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Sunday Estimates by Klady

What else is there to say?
The Grudge 2 suffered mightily as the weekend progressed. Everything else was kind of as expected from the Friday numbers.
The Queen continues to impress, though it is worth pointing out that The Illusionist, which has been a bit of a surprise hit, did nearly the same number on 51 screens on its opening weekend ($927,956 on 51 screens) and Little Miss Sunshine did a little bit better ($1.48m on 58 screens) in its second weekend. Will that put The Queen at a between-the-two $45 million domestic? Miramax sure hopes so!
Deliver Us From Evil is getting a lot of well-deserved attention from the media, but in its first weekend, it did not translate to much box office. It

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Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/14

Looks like The Grudge 2 will be off about a third from The Grudge, which seems like a victory to me, given that it looks like an even crappier film than the original remake. Even with that drop, it will become (for now) a Top 20 opening in this year, like to come out around the same place as Underworld: Evolution, both in opening ($26.9m) and final number ($62).
The Departed will be close to $55 million after two weekends and will probably be behind both Flags of Our Fathers and The Prestige next weekend. But WB would be well advised to invest in a second wind campaign the week after, finding itself in position to get 3 more strong weeks out of November before Bond. (The most dangerous film for The Departed is, oddly, Borat, though it may not hit the adults squarely for its first few weeks.)
The opening of Man of the Year may seem disappointing, but it will probably be bigger than any two weekends for Wag The Dog, back in 1997. Wag was a truly great film and I haven

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Box Office Hell – Friday The 13th

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Sunday Estimates by Klady

Weekend (estimates) October 6 – 8, 2006
Title | Distributor | Gross (average) | % change | Theaters | Cume

The Departed | WB | 26.5 (8,790) | new | 3017 | 26.5
Texas Chainsaw: The Beginning | New Line | 19.1 (6,780) | new | 2820 | 19.1
Open Season | Sony | 15.9 (4,140) | -33% | 3833 | 44
Employee of the Month | Lions Gate | 11.7 (4,550) | new | 2579 | 11.7
The Guardian | BV | 9.7 (3,000) | -46% | 3241 | 32.5
Jackass: Number Two | Par | 6.4 (2,120) | -56% | 3007 | 62.7
School for Scoundrels | MGM | 3.5 (1,170) | -59% | 3007 | 14.1
The Gridiron Gang | Sony | 2.4 (1,060) | -48% | 2228 | 36.7
Fearless | Focus | 2.3 (1,400) | -55% | 1617 | 21.7
The Illusionist | YF/FS/Odeon | 1.8 (1,600) | -33% | 1149 | 34.1
Little Miss Sunshine | Fox Searchlight | 1.3 (1,540) | -36% | 824 | 55
Trailer Park Boys | Alliance | 1.2 (6,680) | new | 181 | 1.2
Flyboys | MGM | 1.1 (730) | -55% | 1471 | 11.9
Facing the Giants | IDP | 1.0 (2,250) | -27% | 435 | 2.7
The Science of Sleep | WIP/Seville | .74 (3,290) | -34% | 225 | 2.8
The Black Dahlia | Uni | .56 (600) | -74% | 931 | 22
Also debuting/expanding
The Queen | Miramax | .39 (35,270) | 132% | 11 | 0.62
The Last King of Scotland | Fox Searchlight | .29 (9,770) | 105% | 30 | 0.53
Love’s Abiding Joy | Bigger Pics | .13 (720) | new | 185 | 0.13
Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker | Alliance | .10 (900) | new | 115 | 0.1
Little Children | New Line | .10 (20,640) | new | 5 | 0.1
ShortBus | Thinkfilm | 77,300 (19,330) | new | 4 | 0.08
Not a lot more to say.

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Klady's Friday Estimates – 10/7

The Departed opened on more than 1000 screens more than any Scorsese movie has opened on before. (Bringing Out The Dead, 1936 screens) It

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Box Office Hell – 10/6

bohell1006.jpg

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Sunday Estimates by Klady

It

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Box Office

Quote Unquotesee all »

“The thought is interrupted by an odd interlude. We are speaking in the side room of Casita, a swish and fairly busy Italian bistro in Aoyama – a district of Tokyo usually so replete with celebrities that they spark minimal fuss. Kojima’s fame, however, exceeds normal limits and adoring staff have worked out who their guest is. He stops mid-sentence and points up towards the speakers, delighted. The soft jazz that had been playing discreetly across the restaurant’s dark, hardwood interior has suddenly been replaced with the theme music from some of Kojima’s hit games. Harry Gregson-Williams’ music is sublime in its context but ‘Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots’ is not, Kojima acknowledges, terribly restauranty. He pauses, adjusting a pair of large, blue-framed glasses of his own design, and returns to the way in which games have not only influenced films, but have also changed the way in which people watch them. “There are stories being told [in cinema] that my generation may find surprising but which the gamer generation doesn’t find weird at all,” he says.
~ Hideo Kojima

“They’re still talking about the ‘cathedral of cinema,’ the ‘communal experience,’ blah blah. The experiences I’ve had recently in the theatre have not been good. There’s commercials, noise, cellphones. I was watching Colette at the Varsity, and halfway through red flashes came up at the bottom of the frame. A woman came out and said, ‘We’re going to have to reboot, so take fifteen minutes and come back.’ Then they rebooted it from the beginning, and she had to ask the audience to tell her how far to go. You tell me, is that a great experience? I generally don’t watch movies in a cinema at all. Netflix is the future. It’s the present. But the whole paradigm of a series, binge-watching, it’s quite different. My first reaction is that it’s more novelistic, because if you have an eight-hour season, you can get into complex, intricate things. You can let it breathe and the audience expectations are such that they will let you, where before they wouldn’t have the patience. I think only the surface has been touched with experimenting with that.”
~ David Cronenberg