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Weekend Estimates by Klady: Origin of Evil

weekend estimate oct 23 2016

The newcomers land in the same order as they did Friday, Madea leading, but there are some “funny” estimates for the 3-day, which may shift when Sunday numbers are counted. The only change in order might be Ouija 2, which could fall behind The Accountant for #4. Also accelerating, after an excellent four-screen launch on Friday, is Moonlight, with an estimate that is even more stellar than expected, leading the exclusives by a distance.

BooMadea’s estimate seems a mill or two high… but still #1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back gives an honest estimate, which could actually go up a little, a 51% improvement on the first in the series. Ouija: Origin of Evil also estimates high, fighting off The Accountant for the #3 spot. Ouija 2 may well fall to #4 tomorrow, but will still likely be equally profitable or more profitable than the Affleck thriller. Keeping Up With The Joneses couldn’t keep up with six other movies and is better than that, but probably not good enough to get a word-of-mouth surge that would alter its trajectory. A trio – aside from the Wonder Woman to come – of actors who are well-liked, but don’t  to inspire people to buy tickets.

Suicide Squad is holding to hit $325m domestic… which made me look at the year and the massive disparity between the top 8 titles so far and the rest. Jason Bourne is the #9 movie of the domestic year to date and it is almost exactly HALF the box office of #8, Suicide Squad.

The are NO titles between $175 million and $320 million. NONE. That hasn’t happened in the domestic box office since 1988, when Rainman was the #1 movie of the year with just under $175 million. Almost 30 years and a whole different box office universe, pre-DVD.

The disparity is not evident at the international box office, though there is a near-$200 million hole in the worldwide box office between $553 million for The Mermaid and Suicide Squad‘s $744 million. The worldwide target for “the big movies” (budgeted over $175 million) to be safely into profit is…. perhaps not coincidentally… $600 million.

I’m not saying that all the bigger budget films that don’t do $600 million are money losers. There are many variables in budgets and in post-theatrical revenues. $500 million is the edge of danger (though there could still be black ink, in reality, if not on the studio books). And not every $600 million grosser will be profitable… but the vast majority will.

I don’t know exactly what this means or the root causes. Each film is its own universe. One can hardly say that Jason Bourne‘s $401 million worldwide makes it a “have not.”

For all the complaining in the media, there are only five bigger budget money losers this year so far: The Huntsman: Winter’s War, The BFG, Alice Through The Looking Glass, Star Trek Beyond, and Independence Day: Resurgence. Others that seemed like big trouble were saved internationally (from Warcraft to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows). And Ben Hur wasn’t that expensive (but it will lose money).

And unlike the constant refrain in much of the media, caused by the very same media’s misreporting of the industry, there were about 20 movies released by studios this year that were just around or over $150 million in production costs. That is a quarter of the releases. And I am not including Dependents (Searchlight/Focus/SPC) or any of the indies. Just major studios, where I include Tri-Star, Screen Gems, and New Line.

The BIG movies with the BIG budgets and the BIG grosses or the DISAPPOINTING grosses are like a shiny object to press. And while 20 such movies is a lot and a higher percentage than in the past, the illusion that this is all that major studios now do is false.

And I hate to break it to the media (wait, that’s me), but The Secret Life of Pets and Deadpool, both massive hits, may stink of IP, but were relatively cheap. They lead 21 $75-million-or-less homegrown studio releases that have grossed over $100 million worldwide.

Did I mention that Moonlight had a great 4-screen opening? It did.

Also a strong start for The Handmaiden on 4… but not close to Moonlight.

I suspect that 90%+ of audience members going to either film will come out buzzing with movie joy.

And the superstunt for the election is Michael Moore in Trumpland, a spoken-word concert event by Moore talking to, as I gather, a crowd of Ohio Trump supporters. $20,850 per on two screens before its immediate iTunes bow.


Friday Estimates by Boo Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-10-22 at 12.39.35 PM

Not an interesting weekend, all things considered. Lots of soft franchise openings and a failed launch of what could have become a comedy franchise.

Madea is back to her traditional level of business. A little behind, but the details of opening don’t seem to matter to the final domestic number with this franchise. But look for a $53m – $65m gross total, which is what Madea does (with only one outlier… Madea Goes To Jail). Madea has never once done more than $1.3m internationally.

Jack Reacher also returned this weekend, though the Paramount ads were so dark and off-center that I wasn’t quite sure who they were after. The teen boy hard-R audience, perhaps? In any case, they kicked the original opening’s ass by 74%, which is impressive. Still, the domestic launch looks to be around $25 million, which is good, but hardly breathtaking. The expectation, no doubt, is that most of the revenue will be international. And if international also reflects the level of domestic uptick, this movie would do $350 million-plus… which would make it a hot, rising franchise produced at a pretty reasonable budget.

Ouija: Origin of Evil appears to spell “mediocre,” but with cheap production, it’s hard to lose on these bets, Even falling well off the original (original knock-off of a board game, that is), this seems destined to be profitable, if not a new house in London for anyone.

What happened to Keeping Up With The Joneses? Nothing. They just didn’t sell the thing effectively. The movie was better than the ads… which is not a good thing. There is something missing from the formula to keep it from being the comedy Mr & Mrs Smith (perhaps movie stars?), but it’s not lacking entertainment value. If they had sold the third act turn, instead of the jokes that tested biggest, perhaps they would have been better off on opening weekend.

The arthouse is back to life. Moonlight is killing it for A24 with $32,500 per screen on Friday and over $60k per screen for the weekend. The Handmaiden did $4750 per screen on four and will be over $10k for the weekend. And Trumpland, the last-minute Michael Moore concert film (now available on iTunes) did a handsome $5,300 per on two on Friday.


Friday Box Office Estimates



Just Not Funny Anymore

(With apologies to those who read me only for movies… don’t read this piece if you don’t want to discuss politics.)

About half an hour ago, I met up with a friend, his 6-year-old daughter, my 6-year-old son, and my wife. Within 10 minutes, he had left in a hurry because I was “too aggressive” after he started, “But Hillary…”ing me after we initially were agreeing about Trump.

With that, I realized I have no room for equivocation anymore. And it has nothing to do with me loving Hillary or disregarding her many problems from decades past and even her run as Secretary of State.

When we agree that Donald Trump is highly likely of being a serial sexual predator, I am done. “But she” is no longer a conversation I am willing to have.

If WikiLeaks were to come up with an e-mail, hacked or not, that believably asserted that she had committed a real crime (not lying, not being overly artful in posturing, not using the wrong e-mail server for 40 e-mails in four years, etc), then I would be willing to engage a conversation that in some way suggests an equality of flaws between her and Trump.

But until then, no.

My friend posited, “Who is worse? An enabler or the person who does bad?”

Really? Is that a serious question?

I have many issues with enablers… but the person who does the damage of their own accord is worse, unless they were somehow hypnotized or drugged or forced into their behavior by said enabler.

Not just “worse.” That is too gentle a phrasing. An enabler can be a victim his or her self. They can be managing a bad situation as best they can. Really, it is often very hard not to enable someone you love when they are doing bad things. Leaving them to their sickness can feel like you are contributing to making it worse. It’s a horrible place to be. Yes, some enablers get off on their enabling. But I believe that most are just trying to find a way to make it all stop.

The person acting out is most likely a victim as well. Few people who are abusive didn’t learn to be that way other than being themselves abused.

It occurred to me that if Donald Trump had Nate Parker’s history, I would be more forgiving. At least Nate Parker went through the process of litigation and had to face his accuser and the law. The flaws in that system are a different discussion, but I don’t believe in throwing rocks at people who have been acquitted. It is fundamental to our justice system that we accept outcomes, even if we believe them to be incorrect or misguided.

In the case of Donald Trump, it is not clear that he has raped anyone. His first wife accused him of marital rape and later withdrew the claim. He is accused of sex with a 13-year-old in connection with Jeffrey Epstein (with whom Bill Clinton is also connected), but the case was already dismissed in one court and the issue is too blurred to be held with a clear presumption of truth (which doesn’t mean it didn’t happen).

The truth is, I don’t think Trump is capable of rape. I believe that he gets off on the idea that women adore and want him and that having to forcibly penetrate a woman would leave him flaccid. But that’s just my take.

But everything else… it all fits like a glove. The more he talks, the more it fits.

It makes sense that the only woman who accuses him of assaulting her near a bedroom with the intent of bedding her on the spot is the only person he knew well enough to engage with in an actual social interaction. All eight other accusers accuse him of hit-and-run assaults, presumably with the wished-for outcome being a full-on sexual encounter.

And look at this grid of pictures of the women accusing him…


Back in the Lewinsky days, a friend said that the minute he saw Lewinsky, he knew it was true because she was so Bill Clinton’s sexual type. He was right.

So look at the grid. Obviously there are variations on looks, but there is only one woman here who doesn’t fit in the looks department… and that’s dark, dark haired, eyebrow-y Cassandra Searles, a Miss USA contestant.

I had thought he was doing this somewhat randomly… but this makes it clear that he has a type. Noses. The shape of the face. Look at all the dimples and face creases. Not identical twins, obviously. But even the women with darker hair fit his very specific profile. And look at what isn’t there… any non-white Northern European ethnicity.

You know who also fits this grid visually?

trump mom

Trump’s mom.

Put a pair of glasses on her and you couldn’t tell her apart from Jessica Leeds.

This is what I would call strong circumstantial evidence. But I don’t need to rely on that to make the case against Trump today. His own words, the many accusations, and logic suggest that Donald Trump is a sexual predator.

If you chose not to believe it, we can have that argument. But if you do believe it, there is no excuse to have any further discussion.

The idea that America would knowingly elect a sexual predator for any reason, short of his opponent being arguably guilty of a similar level of criminality, would create a crisis not only in America, but across the globe.

And if both candidates of major parties were literally – not hyperbolically – guilty of criminal acts against Americans, then we should be having a revolution, because it is unthinkable.

But that is not where we are. You can hate Hillary Clinton all day and twice on Sunday but she’s not out there putting hands on people’s genitals who don’t consent and feeling she can get away with it because she is powerful. She has been investigated endlessly (which makes her suspicious), but no one has ever caught her doing anything illegal. That’s just facts.

By the way, this is why Monica Lewinsky is not part of the Trump spin… because though there was a power inequity (which I still have a major issue with), it was consensual. And Trump is desperate to make the case that his nonconsensual acts were less bad or equally bad to Bill Clinton’s. Of course, there is a big distinction, as the Bill Clinton accusations being discussed now involve one case of no sexual contact and two in which there seems to have been actual intercourse, not seemingly random acts of casually-made abuse.

Paula Jones, if you believe her, was never touched by Clinton. He allegedly propositioned her and showed her his penis. If that is true, it remains disgusting. But it is not assault. And remember, she says this happened before he was in office, then filed a suit while he was in office and preparing to run for reelection.

Clinton had sex with Kathleen Willey, but Linda Tripp, amongst others, said it was consensual and Ken Starr found that her testimony that it was forced was untrue. (Also worth noting: this accusation was made while Clinton was in office.)

The only other accusation was Juanita Broaddrick, who testified under oath to Paula Jones’ legal team, that she had not been raped by Bill Clinton, but later flipped her position under the increased influence of right=wingers in her life and in response to Clinton’s presidential run.

Whatever you think of Bill Clinton, these situations are apples and oranges.

If Bill Clinton were – in magicland – running for The Presidency today and Broaddrick (the only sexual allegation involving any physical contact) turned up in the months between the convention and the election and she had not previously been deposed saying Clinton had not raped her, I would be saying the same thing about Clinton that I am saying today about Trump.

But the fact is, none of these three women were accusing Bill Clinton of anything before he became President. This doesn’t make them liars. But it does make the circumstances very different.

Democrats and Republicans who voted for Clinton did not vote for someone, or elect a President, who was under a legitimate, albeit not-yet-litigated cloud of criminal sexual misconduct.

The only woman on the grid above who had any kind of consensual sexual relationship with Donald Trump was his first wife. She used the word “rape” in her book, which she has since edited out.

Personally, I don’t care about what Donald Trump did in his sex life over his 70 years. Cheat? So what? Sleep with hundreds of women? I don’t care.

Intentionally Walking into young women’s dressing rooms when they are naked?

Not okay.

Saying he feels free to touch or kiss women without consent with impunity because he is rich and/or famous?


Touching any woman on her genitals or breasts or putting his hand up their skirt?


Mocking the women, particularly about their looks?

Beneath contempt.

There is nothing about Trump’s behavior or words, in the past or today – literally, today – that is exculpatory or suggests that any of the accusations are anything less than legitimate. He is still abusing these women. And he is abusing us all.

Put ten women in front of me who have stories that fit together, who look alike in many ways, and who are clearly not reading from the same hymnal, and you are going to be very hard-pressed to get me to doubt them, or any one of them, really.

Trump is right about one thing. If this is a conspiracy and they have all been put up to this, it is the greatest conspiracy ever. Because it all fits (and doesn’t fit) absolutely perfectly.

And never in the history of the world have there been less reputable, less believable “eyewitnesses” than the ones being rolled out by Trump as “evidence.”

Of course, most people believe he did this. Even those who still support him.

And that is why I have no sense of humor left. Because there are people comfortable looking away from their belief that they are electing a serial sexual predator. Can’t hide behind God or taxes on that one, folks.

If you vote for Trump under these circumstances, knowing in your heart that he did these deeds, you are no different than church officials rotating priests they knew to be sexual predators to new parishes to escape arrest.

Trump is 70 now. But would you leave him alone with your precocious 15-year-old daughter? Would you be comfortable with your 22-year-old niece going to his bungalow at the Beverly Hills Hotel to “talk business” over dinner?

This is a teachable moment. But only if we all open our eyes and stop living in a past where we remember America as great, but in which child molestation, rape, backroom abortion, overt racism, anti-Semitism, and so on were below the radar but widely accepted as the norm.

We are now talking, without irony, about electing a man who we know, in our hearts, is a sexual predator. There is no statute of limitations on that being okay. It is not okay. It will never be okay. And if he is elected, unless completely cleared by some act of God, it will give America deep emotional distress… unspoken guilt… knowing that we did this to ourselves. Even if he isn’t the worst president ever and all of his threats are hollow. It’s not about the sex acts… it’s about the emotion that comes with them. We will mourn what we thought America was.

I can’t smile and laugh about what a jackass this man is anymore.

But if you can, you might want to stay clear of me for the next few weeks.


Weekend Estimates by Klady: What Now?

Weekend Estimates 2016-10-16 at 10.08.19 AM

The Accountant opens to almost the exact same amount as The Girl On The Train last week… which means whatever you think it means. Not disastrous… not cause for celebration. Only three films open to $7500 per-screen overall, none on more than five screens. The strongest of those was Certain Women by Kelly Reichardt, her career-best opening.

The most interesting thing about this weekend is that it may be pretty much the same again next weekend. There are FOUR wide openings next weekend. Three are sequels or franchise extensions. All four could come up short of $20 million openings. Though the last Madea movie was the first to open under $25 million (with $16m), with this group it has to be the favorite to “win” the weekend.

The first Jack Reacher opened to $16m. Ouija opened to $19.9m and in the pre-Halloween slot, people could be in the mood to have it open at #1 next weekend.

The wild card is the comedy, Keeping Up With The Joneses, which looks like a lot of fun… but has leads who don’t really open movies. So if it’s great (seeing it later this week), it could leg it out… but hard time opening over $15m even in this crowd.

But… The Accountant is not a great opening. The Girl on The Train was not a great opening. Sully and The Magnificent Seven are looking a lot better this month than they did last month.

The box office will turn back up the week after as Inferno is likely to have a $40m plus opening going into a massive November.

It’s silly, mostly, to try to get macro answers out of micro evidence. This has not been a bad year at the box office. But it is fair to say that there has not been much excitement from the distributors themselves about the product in the last two months. And this is somewhat a result of the bifurcation of the product between huge and small, as well as the lean towards foreign box office for some product.

For instance… Miss Peregrine is about to pass $200 million worldwide, doing double overseas what it did here. Fox clearly saw that coming. Likewise for Universal and Bridget Jones’ Baby, which is over $165m worldwide, $23m of which is domestic. How much heat came off the pitches in the U.S., anticipating foreign to be the driving successes?

Was Warner Bros obsessed with getting The Accountant to blow up when their cash cow, Fantastic Beasts, is a month away?

I’m not saying they weren’t trying. I’m not saying they didn’t spend. I’m not saying they didn’t care.

But there is magic in selling, just as there is in making movies. From where I sit, you can see the energy flowing or not. You can feel whether a movie feels like life & death to a team or is just another piece of product.

And no matter how great the passion, marketing teams sometimes fail. And surprisingly often, when they throw the movie like they can’t wait to get away from it, they have hits. To say it is an inexact science would be to understate the issue.

But these people – who are quite brilliant about many things – are just people. Like anyone, they are distracted by the circumstances around each and every movie they have to sell. So when the field tilts this way or that, they adjust. It’s just human nature.

And this weekend? It was okay. Decent openings. Decent holds. Just nothing to write home about.

The last time the top movie of the week did over $10,000 per screen was… Suicide Squad‘s second weekend. There were three weekends of this kind all summer. This is the 10th straight weekend without a $10k per screen film on top. Do I think about per-screen for wide release movies a lot? No. But does it show a lack of enthusiasm for 2.5 months? Yeah.


Friday Estimates By The Accountant Klady

Screen Shot 2016-10-15 at 2.06.12 PM


First Blush Review: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (spoiler-free)

It is too easy – lazy even – to dismiss Ang Lee’s latest out of hand. It is not your standard issue failure.

All the actors do well with what they are asked to do, especially Kristen Stewart (I’d have liked to have seen the movie about that character) and newcomer Joe Alwyn, who is really asked to carry the whole movie.

I can’t really blame the screenplay because it’s secondary to the visual event.

But the look eats the movie whole. And keep in mind that I have been completely open to digital filmmaking from the start.

Ang Lee said something before the film that turned out to be significant. He talked about the increased frame rate and how faces really tell stories… so (I extrapolated), this new format would let him leave more to faces.

In one scene, particularly, he changes styles to test this idea in a very tight close-up of Steve Martin’s head. And my interest was stirred.

But most of the movie feels like it was shot with the visual style we are used to from Mr. Lee, but with giant technical hurdles added.

Essentially, he made the absolute cutting edge version of a “Playhouse 90″ episode with some extra bells and whistles, and color.

There were some great Playhouse 90 episodes, made by some great directors. And I will return to Billy Lynn with no expectations of the new format and try to see it that simply.

Did it look beautiful in many ways? Yes. Big colors are stunning in this format. The film’s ingenue, Makenzie Leigh, wore a top with the center cut out and her breasts glued in to the premiere. Her faux Dallas Cowboy cheerlanders outfit, in this format, popped a million times harder with its vivid colors and show little, tease everything style.

Every time it felt like Lee was about to bust out a visual extravaganza… he just didn’t. Clearly a choice. Very Ang Lee. It it felt like a 2 hour tease.

I would be happy to see some serious directors try this format and find a unique language for it. Including Ang Lee. It’s like he was trying so hard to manage the new format that he wasn’t fully inspired to take advantage of the new format.

As for awards, except for tech awards, forget it. None of the supporting players have enough to do and the lead, however handsome, is at the start of a career, not at a pinnacle.

There’s no reason that someone couldn’t make a great film that feel like video/TV I. The future. But if the format is important to that greatness it will be be ause rhe filmmaker found a new language for film. Steven Spielberg didn’t find one. Peter Jackson didn’t find one. Ang Lee hasn’t found one.


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BYOB 101016

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Weekend Estimates by Hurricane Len

Weekend Estimates 2016-10-09 at 9.40.37 AM

The Girl on The Train underperforms its opening day, likely a reflection of weather on the east coast. Miss Peregrine and Deepwater Horizon hold well in light of same. The other two openings, Birth of a Nation and Middle School barely land. Neither will generate $3500 per screen despite relatively small screen count for wide releases.

Before we get all hysterical about the box office (AGAIN!!!), this opening for The Girl on The Train is disappointing, especially vs the Friday number. But the only film that opened better in October 2015 was The Martian. It would have been the #3 opening of October 2014. And there is still a legit shot at this film getting to $100 million domestic.

On the other hand…  a crap run of movies lately.

The Birth of a Nation comes to market hobbled. Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life is marketed off a book series, but the title unavoidably creates a tiny, tiny niche.

Going back a week, Fox treated Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children like a stepchild instead of like a big Tim Burton event and Deepwater Horizon, which performed within expectations, never seemed to push for anyone who wasn’t in the well-defined blue collar and military niche for that kind of film (see: Peter Berg, lately) to see the film.

And as much as kids love talking animals… in 2016, they also know that storks don’t bring babies.

Sully, a good movie, is hitting its weight. And so is The Magnificent Seven… a not very good movie.

But as always, what the market needs is simple… movies that make people think they want to see them. Good or bad. Genre or not. Awards-y or not.

The job of making it happen is hard. But the principle is simple. And it’s only partially on the movies themselves. Box office success happens at all levels of quality. Opening is opening, not a quality referendum.

Do people want to see The Accountant? The marketing is being tuned to what WB thinks people will want, not what the movie is. That is the way it works.

Of course, WB has Fantastic Beasts coming and a 2017 with seven event movies on the schedule. And they will ride Sully into award season with great intensity. So things are shifting over in Burbank.

Anyway… another crap weekend at the indies. The big hits are a Chinese actioner, Operation Mekong, and the (3rd, 4th, 5th) theatrical re-release of The Battle of Algiers, newly restored!

Zeitgeist and The Orchard also cracked the $5,000 per screen mark on single screens, though… though… this is a tough business. See both films (Blue Jay and Theo Who Lived) on VOD.


Friday Estimates by Girl Talk On The Bus Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-10-08 at 9.01.53 AM


Weekend Estimates by Deeply Peculiar Klady

Weekend Estimates 2016-10-02 at 9.44.49 AM
Three new 3000+ screen releases arrive to tepid audience interest. The best performer of the trio was the latest Tim Burton, at the bottom of his list of 2000+ screen non-animated openers. An action-drama about the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster just hit the $20 million bar. And a long-shelved release from the attempting-to-come-back Relativity barely registers.

Not a ton more to say about this weekend.

I don’t recall the last time three 3000+ screen movies opened on one weekend, I am a fan of two of the directors, and I didn’t see any of them before release. It’s a bad idea to personalize these things to come up with a general idea of how studios feel about their releases, but the studios for both of the higher grossers in the group have been all over me about other movies they are soon to release… and crickets on these two.

I’m not sure there was any more money than this in Deepwater Horizon. It’s not a religious or military play. And how many people really want to relive that moment?

Miss Peregrine? I loved their outdoor/wild-posting campaign. But the ad campaign felt like, “Here’s the premise… we don’t want to tell you anything remotely substantive about the story.” I don’t want whole stories in ads, but is it a coming of age? Are they under attack? Where is this film headed? No idea. I love Tim Burton and this still never became a priority for me, a primed, ready audience member.

Masterminds? Didn’t look good 18 months ago. Still looks dumb. But Ryan Kavanaugh has tweeted his way to me not really wanting to ever support a Relativity movie ever again. So, no big whoop. He has made a ton of schlock. A couple okay genre pictures. But as the face of the company, he seems invested in letting as many people as possible know that he is not only an extremist, but that has contempt for his potential audience.

Bleecker Street has another very good movie but that is is also a hard sell in Denial. It might have been easier if they had done more than dropped it at Toronto and walked away. They have a small problem in that its star is prepping for a tough stage show in NY and doesn’t have loose time. So you move the date. Still, solid numbers on five screens with a solid reach-out to the Jewish community. This is a timely movie, which happens to have the Jewish holocaust as its background.

Also opening with strong numbers on limited screens (four) is Andrea Arnold’s American Honey, an A24 special. Arnold is one of our great filmmakers who is extremely camera-shy.

Music Box’s A Man Called Ove, a movie I love and think audiences will adore, opened slowly. Music Box has overcome their small marketing budgets with slow, steady growth before. I still think this one could get nominated (and potentially win) the Oscar for Foreign Language. But it needs to be seen.


Friday Estimates By Peculiar Klady

Friday Estimates  2016-10-01 at 9.25.31 AM

The month of epic mediocrity continues!!!

But everything is relative. Deepwater Horizon could be the highest grosser for Lionsgate year-to-date by the end of October ($66.3m is the target). The film opened with the same vibe as a major studio movie (and more like a studio spend than is often the case from Lionsgate), but if it was a WB film, a (hopeful) $70m domestic gross would be seen as disappointing. But as Lionsgate, this feels like a strong number.

Meanwhile, Fox didn’t seem fully committed to much of an opening for Miss Peregrine, their first Tim Burton movie in 15 years. And the opening, while not a disaster, is mediocre as Burton visual extravaganzas go. They’d have to be happy with Dark Shadows number about now. But remember… DS did almost &250m worldwide and Peregrine seems to be the kind of movie that could hit internationally… a quirky X-Men (on which Fox doesn’t share the IP).

Masterminds’ second release effort is as mediocre as the original push seemed likely to be. The opening, even with all that comedy star power, should land dead smack on the middle of the list of 34 Relativity openings. After 17 months in the distribution business, they’re 0 for 2. The future is a curiosity.

Sully passes $100m today. Solid. International has been ok and they are holding the film for the post-Thanksgiving period in some key US-friendly markets. $200m worldwide is a realistic possibility.

Denial and American Honey are the limiteds that will crack the $10k per screen barrier this weekend. Both worth your time and then some…


Categorizing The 2016 Box Office (To-Date)

The annual whining about the end of theatrical is in full force… and as wrong as ever. Ironically, the biggest threat to theatrical box office is currently the Murdoch brothers, who have expressed an interest in pushing the day-n-date issue yet again. (So far, every experiment has failed miserably.) The big studio fantasy about collapsing the windows and coming out ahead is, in my opinion, simply wrong because it is not a math equation… it is the nature of how content is consumed. Theatrical is the only significant differentiator even now… and it’s only going to become more so.

But that is not the point of this piece.

In looking at the numbers for the Top 50 films of the year worldwide to date, I noticed that they fall pretty nearly into seven categories.

1. Animated Movies – $4.31b
2. Comic Book Movies – $4.08b
3. Sequels – $3.25b
4. Reboots – $2.17b
5. Originals (even if sourced) – $1.88b
6. Foreign-driven – $1.42b
7. Horror/Extreme Thriller – $381.6m

I am making category judgements here. Zootopia, for instance, is an original AND animated. Same with Deadpool. The Jungle Book is kinda animated, kinda rebooted, etc. But I don’t think there will be a lot of serious arguments with my classifications.

The biggest challenge to classify is Warcraft, which is not a comic book, is not animated, is a domestic movie though it did just under 90% of its business overseas. I put it in with the originals… Because, really, it is. It is the biggest budget in the group and the highest grosser as well, even though it couldn’t get to $50m domestic. Still, an oddball.

Comic Book Movies are the top per-title draw, with just over $800m per on only five titles. But, as you know, they are also (with rare exceptions) the most expensive movies being made.

There wer eight animated releases going into this weekend. The top 5 average $750 million per film, which is competitive with and more profitable than the Comic Book category.

These two businesses are separate from the rest of the industry. They, with just 13 titles, represent almost half the revenue of the industry.

But that leaves about $9 billion on the ticket sales table for every other niche. This is not table scraps. This is not a starvation diet. Would most intelligent adults be happier if the revenue ratio leaned more towards originals and indie and quality in general? Sure. But let’s not go insane with the pitchforks and torches.

Of course, a look at the 11 originals that made the Top 50 (to date) is not going to encourage critical minds. Only Sully, The BFG, Central Intelligence, and (just barely) Bad Moms are “fresh” at Rotten Tomatoes.

Four of six of the reboot group were rated “fresh.” Only three of the 12 sequels were “fresh,” (Neighbors 2 only by the skin of its teeth). Comic book movies? Two of five were “fresh.”

Underrepresented in my list of the Top 50 worldwide is the Horror/Extreme Thriller group. Those films don’t generate the $90 million that would get it to the bottom of this group. But they are profitable a great deal of the time.

I was particularly impressed about how much money there is in films that don’t hit in the U. S. 99.4% of the grosses for those five films were  from outside the U.S. And the 5 films averaged $283 million in gross. That outdoes sequels, originals, and horror on average. It is worth noting that two of those five are sequels and one is from the Asian Spielberg (or Disney if you prefer), Stephen Chow.

For the “Woe is We”ers, if you look at the 11 originals, you’ll find that three come from independents and three more from lower-budget WB arm New Line. So the argument that studios are out of the original non-comic/non-animation business is buoyed. On the other hand, if you look back at 2000, when X-Men was the only big comic book movie, there were still only 14 originals (as I have classified them today) and four of those were from non-majors.

Here’s the list. You can chew on it yourself for a while…

TOP 50 AS OF SEPT 2016


Weekend Estimates by September Over Yet? Klady

Weekeend Estimates 2016-09-25 at 11.06.40 AM

Nothing has changed. Storks claiming $21.4 million for the 3 day may be high… could be true… still not a hit in this genre. Sully holding well, but not exceptionally so. Bridget Jones’ Baby is ugly domestically… hoping it looks better by international norms. Snowden in hiding (which I find unfortunate). Blair Witch doing the same business the original should have (aka, almost none). Suicide Squad passes $320m domestic next weekend… $730m worldwide… Guardians of the Galaxy did $773m worldwide and was seen as the most explosive hit of the season… this is when media feelings really show up, when the history is written, not at the box office.

Disney fails to open Queen of Katwe. The film deserved better. It was never going to rock the box office, but it would have been better served by selling the movie that is there, not the movie Disney dreamed it could be (and clearly is not). This is the kind of movie that other distributors with the ability to go wide handle with white gloves. Disney’s white gloves only have four fingers.

And now that Katwe is release, there is exactly one non-big-Disney-brand movie on the company’s schedule between now and the end of 2018. (Someone noted this somewhere this week… in a comment, I think. Sorry to be cribbing.) And that sole film is a Disney Nature doc.

If Disney had laid off Queen of Katwe, The Light Between Oceans, Pete’s Dragon, McFarland USA, Million Dollar Arm, The Hundred Foot Journey, and more, they would have all done a lot better. Disney’s marketing department just isn’t exercising the muscle of releasing quality movies that are not franchise movies anymore.

When Alan Horn came to the studio, he assured producers that the studio was not getting out of the business of making “middle” movies. He may or may not have been lying. My guess is that he was given a few shots to make is work… and it never has paid off, so they have abandoned the category completely… which no other studio has done, no matter how the media obsesses on the idea that everyone has.

More of this to come in a separate piece.

Anyway… another meh Sunday.


Friday Estimates by The Magnificent Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-09-24 at 9.07.27 AM

Is this the moment where Tom Hanks and Denzel Washington officially become movie star equals? Or has it already happened? Or is Denzel ahead? Or do we credit Chris Pratt?

All moot, really. Denzel has a great September history. We are reminded that he can still open movies. We are reminded that $35m in September is not a surprise.

But mostly, we look at domestic on both of these movies and wonder whether either will play overseas. Genres and all.

Storks barely achieved lift-off. Not a complete car wreck, but under $20m for a major studio animated opening is not good. Is this a loss-leader for international like Ice Age ’16 (now over $400m ww)? Is this the canary in the coal mine for comic book extravaganzas? International often reflects the domestic trend, just a few years later (just as international often doesn’t come on-trend for a year or two).

Weak arthouse weekend. With a couple of niche exceptions, under $5k per screen.


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“Critics have said that I’ve made a career out of confounding expectations. Really? Because that’s all I do? That’s how I think about it. Confounding expectations. Like I stay up late at night thinking about how to do it. “What do you do for a living, man?” “Oh, I confound expectations.” You’re going to get a job, the man says, “What do you do?” “Oh, confound expectations. And the man says, “Well, we already have that spot filled. Call us back. Or don’t call us, we’ll call you.” Confounding expectations. I don’t even know what that means or who has time for it.”
~ Bob Dylan

“There was somebody from Creative Screenwriting Magazine who was here earlier, and she said ‘Have you got any advice for writers?’ and I said, ‘Yeah, write standing up’. Because this time around, I bought a cheap little stand off Amazon, and I wrote standing up, because it’s slightly uncomfortable – it’s not so uncomfortable that you can’t do it, it’s slightly uncomfortable. And it means you don’t end up going on the internet, basically, because you’re there to do a fucking job. So I’ll write for 25 minutes… then I’ll go and play on the PlayStation for a bit. And I do this all night. I go nocturnal. And then I go back and I’ll write a bit more, and then I go back to the PlayStation, and then I go back… And hopefully by then, I’ll lose track of time and then I’ll be writing for fucking ages, and then there’s a point where you get excited about it. So my advice for writers is always: write standing up, and get Scrivener, and write in 25 minute bursts, and get a PlayStation.”
~ Charlie Brooker

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