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Weekend Estimates by Shut Down Len

Weekend Estimates 2018-01-21 at 11.55.43 AM

12 Strong opens to $100k more than 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi.

Den of Thieves is STX’s #4 opener of their brief all-time, behind the 2 Bad Moms and Valerian… and comps a little behind last year’s January entry, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage and right on top of 2015’s Jack Reacher: Shadow Recruit. In all of these cases, domestic ends up somewhere between $45 million and $55 million.

Unless Paddington 2 finds a second wind, Insidious 2 or next weekend’s Maze Runner 3 will be the top January release of this year… either way, considerably behind top January movies of the last two years and right around the 2015 topper, Taken 3. January and October remain the only months of the year never to have had a $100 million opening.

For clarity’s sake, there has never even been a $45 million January opening, unless you include expansions of December openings, like American Sniper. The Insidious 4 opening is on the low end of the top group for the month… but January should not be an indicator of the year.

The Post is doing… okay. War Horse is a hard comp because it opened over Christmas, but expect their domestic grosses to be similar – around $80m – unless The Post wins Oscar Best Picture in an upset.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is up amongst Lord of the Rings domestic numbers and chasing Pirates 5 and Wonder Woman worldwide. Now, managing the franchise, which is quite pliable compared to most, is the greatest challenge. Repeating the same, only bigger, could mean just one more film with big earning power. heir best bet would be keeping this cast, but changing the “real life” players that are controlling each character “in the game.” The goal is to make it feel the same, but to mine the character surprises that made this one work, pretty much none of which were based on cool CGI.

The Greatest Showman should push La La Land from its place on the all-time domestic grossing musicals chart. This has to be heartening for the already primed Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again. Musicals get slapped… The Greatest Showman won’t come close to a Best Picture nomination… but they can be a surprisingly strong revenue play, even when live-action.

Is $40m domestic for The Commuter a win or a loss? International will tell. Run All Night did $45 million overseas to make it a moneymaker. This one could end up cracking $100m worldwide. Oy.

Forever My Girl is right on the edge of being better off with theatrical than not.

Hostiles was the top per-screen movie for those making over $150k on the weekend… but still, it was only $360k with that $7,370 per-screen on 49. Entertainment Studios has worked hard to make this happen and I am impressed by that effort, especially versu my reserved expectations… but they were too late and not deep-pocketed enough to get into the awards game the film deserves.

Aside from The Post, the highest domestic gross for a Best Picture candidate was Phantom Thread, expanding, with $3.4m and a $3,750 per-screen.

BP candidates 2018-01-21 at 12.54.25 PM

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Friday Estimates by Shut Down Pussy Hat Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-01-20 at 11.12.07 AM

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Minefield of Sunlight: Part 1 – Follow The Money

In the context of show business, if real change is the goal when victims decide to strip away the silence that allows bad actions in the industry, they need also to be willing to expose themselves, not just the alleged victimizers.

I understand the idea that a victim should not be forced to do anything, lest they be victimized again. And when individuals – especially those without significant public profile – expose abuse, this is certainly the right standard. But if the goal is to reshape the world (or at least one industry) rather than to primarily deal with the rights and needs of individuals, the standards change.

The accepted resolution of the All The Money In The World incident did not end up with a public rebuke of Michelle Williams’’ agent, Mark Wahlberg’s agent, or their shared agency, WME. Why? Because they maintained the privacy of all by paying cash to a good cause.

But even that well-intentioned act is an act against progress.

Despite headlines, the real assault was in the details, not the broader idea of pay inequality. Who knew what and when? Did Ms Williams and/or her representative know the circumstances as they played out? What role did budget have in the choice to go ahead with the reshoot and would the effort continued had the re-shoot budget expanded by a couple million dollars more? What was Sony’s position on the added spending and how much of it was out of the company’s pocket? And most dramatically, did Mark Wahlberg and/or his rep indeed threaten to hold up the re-shoot over money regardless of his participation as an actor?

Only with the answers to all of these questions, and more, can the public – and any movement – assess the degree of bad behavior involved.

There is no reason that this won’t all happen again. Today.

Not literally, obviously. There will be no more reshoots caused by the exposure of sexual abusers on this film. But deals are made every day. The entire range of negotiations and results will continue to take place. Some actors will be paid more than actresses, and it will be entirely reasonable, based on status. And there will be other cases in which the spread is greater than reasonable, mostly out of habit… mostly the habits of agents who live within the structure of history. There will also be, to be fair, women who get paid more than men based on status. And there will be cases when the pay imbalance would seem wrong to some eyes if it were to be made public and less so to other. (This will be much, much more rare than the male-over-female example.)

It is possible that the reason why the All The Money situation wasn’t more publicly addressed is that Michelle Williams didn’t want her overall salary exposed, whatever its relation to Wahlberg’s. And perhaps she loves her agent and doesn’t want to fire him. More questions.

When Jennifer Lawrence’s financial back end on American Hustle became public, there was complaining… but not a firing of the agent that made that deal.

I have nothing against anyone’s agent. But complaining about the broad issue does not make change. Specifics need to be offered. Sacrifices need to be made. And when one of the 10 most powerful actors in Hollywood (Ms. Lawrence) complains publicly, but does nothing but get overpaid on her next movie with the studio as a way to make up for past history, nothing changes, aside from her bank account… and her agent’s bank account, who made the bad deal in the first place.

The “lesson learned” lie is one of Hollywood’s favorites. The only lesson here, as with so many pay-offs over the last decades, is that the rich can buy their way out of public trouble.

We must all be willing to be (figuratively) naked if we want our positions to be grounded in reality as well as a new degree of equality when we go back to our individual journeys.

Somehow, we must find a way to protect ourselves and those around us from giving in to the comfort of shifting our collective focus back onto the very real challenges of the work. Time’s Up is building a legal defense fund. (I’ve donated. I hope you have or will.) This is part of the very complicated work of creating a safe space for victims to speak out without fear of being victimized yet again by the financial power of those who have already victimized them. Studios, unions, guilds, and all industry companies need new rules that create safe space for complaints and investigations.

At the same time, the legitimate questions about salary inequality must be addressed head-on.

An actor friend has told me and others the story of one of their female friends of a high status in show biz who was paid a small fraction of her male counterpart’s salary, doing similar work on the same film. This is obviously wrong. But the anonymous story isn’t enough to make change. And I know that the person I know would never expose someone else without their approval. But I am sorry… you want to shake it up? Make it real. Real names. Real numbers. Real change.

I suggest an experiment. Let’s expose the top acting salaries in major studio movies that have big enough budgets to be relevant to the studio conversation for a few months. Here are the upcoming movies I suggest…

Maze Runner 3
50 Shades Freed
Black Panther
Annihilation
Game Night
Red Sparrow
Tomb Raider
Blockers
A Quiet Place
Avengers: Infinity War
Deadpool 2
Life of the Party

That’s about 30 – 40 salaries of interest to look at, a big enough, complicated enough set of films and salaries to start to get some sense of what the reality is. The deals are already long made, so there is little chance of the deals being done to placate the politics or the public.

Is it fair to ask this randomly picked actors/actresses to expose their personal business dealings? No. But would it help start a fact-based discussion? Absolutely.

Real names. Real numbers. Real change.

If you want a revolution…. even if you want slightly better than incremental change… caution will not do the job.

It’s all hard. Yet it’s all a lot simpler than it feels like it is.

There is only one standard in a moral revolution… truth. Unvarnished… unprotected… unsympathetic… uncontrolled… truth. When we start telling that on a broader context, real progress will be made.

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Weekend Estimates by Many LOLs Klady

Weeeknd Estimates 2018-01-14 at 10.01.53 AM
Jumanji continues to hold like a champ. The Post has a solid expansion. The Commuter goes on the list of “maybe that thing is over” Liam Neeson movies, which is usually followed by a bigger hit, so go light on the RIPs. The Greatest Showman will pass $100 million domestic next weekend. The Last Jedi didn’t get to $600 million this weekend. (Get out those violins.) Next weekend. Paddington 2 didn’t accelerate as you would expect a family film to accelerate, but word of mouth is good, so keep an eye out. And Proud Mary is a disastrous non-action movie that was sold as an action movie in light of Atomic Blonde, then couldn’t quite get to what it really is after AB underperformed expectations. It probably wouldn’t have done any better being sold as a Gloria-like drama with a touch of action. Phantom Thread is the only $10k+ per-screen film of the weekend.

Oscar hopefuls in theaters 2018-01-14

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Friday Estimates by Still Jungle-y Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-01-13 at 11.28.45 AM

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BYOB DGA Nominations and more….

byobtruckin

Is it a race? Is it a race yet?

What’s up with Disney-Pixar’s Sameth moving to Paramount?

Hey, James Franco has a Critics Choice award!

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A Late (But BREAKING) Globes BYOB

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Weekend Estimates by Klady ’18

Weekend Estimates 2018-01-07 at 10.50.29 AM

East coast weather on Thursday and Friday seems reflected in the weekend estimates, most with significant bumps that aren’t the norm. That’s fine. But I suspect we will see significant variations in the “actuals” when they land on Monday.

The leap of Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle over Insidious: The Last Key in the top slot isn’t shocking, but the actual amounts projected are.  Jumanji is showing its strength is with young audiences and parents who feel safe taking kids to the film, which is, not coincidentally, the only kid-safe movie in the market aside from Wonder and Coco. Wonder represents the second year that Lionsgate has had a stand-alone original do over $125 million domestic: it and La La Land are the only such titles in the history of the distributor.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi will pass $600 million domestic next weekend, in 30 or 31 days. That’s five or six days faster than Jurassic World and more than two weeks faster than Avatar. Those committed to negativity against the film have only the singular success of The Force Awakens, which leveraged a decade of pent-up demand between Star Wars films, to downplay the success of this one. Of course, box office isn’t film criticism. But if you don’t like what Rian Johnson did with the franchise, you can’t claim that you have the zeitgeist on your side.

Both holiday musicals are holding well, even though neither is explosive. But The Greatest Showman is now headed to making the $100 million domestic list 13 deep.

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 12.09.56 PM

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Friday Estimates: Still Insidious

Friday Estimates 2018-01-06 at 11.42.15 AM

The most interesting thing about Insidious 4 is that a major (Universal) took over the franchise after it launched at a now-defunct indie, then went to Universal indie division Focus, and now lands at the big house. Part of this intrigue is a bigger story about Universal splitting product between itself and the Dependent. Earlier this year, U took over marketing on Atomic Blonde while the banner on the film stayed Focus.

Blum exploded at Paramount, with a marketing team that is no longer there. But this relationship with Universal has taken his company’s output to its great success. Last year, Blumhouse had its first $100 million domestic gross since 2011… two of them. So this kick-off to Blum 2018 is not as strong as Split. But for the fourth of a series to have a significant uptick is no small feat. Blum-U has two more releases scheduled for this year, one original and one sequel. Last year’s magic was for two originals. How this plays out this year, we shall see. But a solid start. (The story of Blumhouse’s Amityville release through Dimension got lost in October… 10 screens… oy.)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle appears headed to $300 million domestic, which is undeniably a hit. And Tom Rothman fights on. I find it unfortunate that the entire media focus of the media, regarding Sony, seems to be on Rothman. Like him or hate him, he is a known commodity and does what he has been doing for a very long time. He keeps things tight financially, so there is limited studio exposure and, indeed, often less upside than one would like with successes. He also interferes in the process. And of the film tops at the majors now, he is the only big screamer left.

When Rothman was handed TriStar, he became a loose spender. And it was a disaster for him and Lynton/Pascal, who allowed it. But he managed what he had – what he greenlit – this year very smartly. Ate it often. But only Disney and Warner Bros had any $300 million domestic grossers in 2017… except for Sony… which had two, not just the one with the assist from Warner Bros. The Sony hits are less impressive in the context of the other studios when you look at worldwide, but still puts Sony ahead of Fox and Paramount.

This is not an apologia for Rothman’s record. This studio won’t continue as is with them failing to make more from films like Roman J. Israel, Esq, The Dark Tower, Flatliners, Only The Brave, T2: Trainspotting, etc. There is a variety of quality level in this group, but the feeling is that the studio is giving up on these titles when they expect that they aren’t going to be big hits, instead of digging in and getting every dime they can. $40 million for Roman J, well below the Denzel norm, wouldn’t be a thrill… but would make a real difference to the bottom line of the company. This is how Rothman succeeded so long at Fox. Occasional huge hits, but not a lot of money losers in the line up amongst the middling hits.

And yes, Tom has a lot of enemies. Boring.

Also boring… people suggesting that Star Wars: The Last Jedi is a commercial problem. Some outlets made a big deal out of TLJ getting beaten on opening weekend in China. The Force Awakens did $124 million in China, which is the equivalent, financially, of $65m in any other market… or about 5% of the foreign gross. Not nothing. But not a key. The sixth biggest international market for the film.

Make no mistake. The Last Jedi is not doing the business that The Force Awakens did. The Empire Strikes Back was 27% off of Star Wars. Attack of the Clones was 35% off of The Phantom Menace. And TLJ will be somewhere around 35% off of Force Awakens.

The Greatest Showman is holding well. It will get closer to $100m domestic than I expected. The Annie reboot is in its sights.

Molly’s Game expands from 271 screens to 1608, pushing into the $6 million weekend business, heading to around $30 million domestic unless it has a surprisingly strong Oscar footprint.

Darkest Hour also expanded, from 943 screens to 1733. The expansion isn’t as showy at the box office as Molly’s Game, but the film has been in the market longer. No doubt, Focus is relying on a great big speech by Gary Oldman, assuming he wins at the Globes tomorrow… and then Oscar nods. If they miss Best Picture, which seems to be a possibility, the roll-out could stall completely.

Coco should get past $200 million domestic, but it hasn’t had the second wind that Moana did. It would help if Remember Me got some traction as a commercial hit, but it’s a straight ballad, not the power ballad of “Let It Go” or the pop fun of the Moana songs and that’s not helping. A duet by Justin Bieber and Selena Gomez on the Golden Globes would help.

More tomorrow…

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Scott Derrickson Says It’s The Golden Era For Superhero Genre

Read the full article »

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Weekend 4-Day Chart

Weekend 4 day 2018-01-01 at 12.57.18 PM

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Weekend Estimates by Baby New Klady

Weekend Estimates 2017-12-31 at 10.17.12 AM

Okay… nothing much changed since yesterday.

Star Wars is doing great by every standard other than Force Awakens and Jim Cameron. I believe that the complaining is marginal. 10% or less of the audience. They are loud and the media loves any story, however misshapen. The future of the franchise will probably be clearer after the next film, which will not be the end of any trilogy, for better or worse.

Jumanji may save Tom Rothman until summer. Of course, the entire studio could be sold by then.

Pitch Perfect 3 is not what Universal hoped… but is still likely to be quite profitable.

Fox marketing isn’t covering itself in glory on the Burbank Death March out the door. Neither film is a complete disaster. Neither film could be called a hit.

Molly’s Game has done fairly well in its opening week (opened on Christmas, last Monday) on 271 screens. Hard strategy to rely on awards making the movie more commercial.

Focus is playing the same game, even more so, with Phantom Thread, which is doing solid PTA-type business on 4 screens.

And then there is The Post, another film from Fox. Nine screens against a full national release campaign. The $60k per-screen is nice, but hardly breathtaking. It’s no unfair to compare the current part of this run to American Sniper… but regardless of how anyone feels about the film, I am not feeling like The Post is an American Sniper in the making. Or a Lincoln. There is definitely a mid-sized audience out there for this movie and they will show up when it goes wide. But if you ask me, they left $10m – $20m on the table by not going out the week before Christmas. The upside is that January is week on dramas. We’ll see.

Here is an awards chart…

BP hopefuls 2017-12-31 at 12.28.48 PM

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BYOB – Happy New Year

byob4thofjuly

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Friday Estimates by The End Is Nigh Klady

Friday Estimates 2017-12-30 at 10.51.00 AM

The massive success of The Last Jedi continues. It’s inarguable, unless you just like to argue. The film passes $500m domestic and $1 billion worldwide today, 16 days into its run. You can have story issues with the movie, but claiming audiences are bailing on it is simply false.

Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is working. It not a world-beater. It’s seems unlikely to pass $600 million worldwide, the low bar of success for mega-movies these days. But the 500s is a range that Sony has seen only three times in the past five years… for a Bond and two Spider-Man films. Sony was the only major that didn’t have any film that wasn’t part of an “established franchise” do over $500 million worldwide in this last half decade. No one else had fewer than two. Sony’s last $500m+ grosser that wasn’t part of a franchise was 2012, released in 2009. So however you feel about Tom Rothman, he’s broken a bad streak longer than his tenure. Credit is due.

Did Universal know that Pitch Perfect was played out, leading it to shove it into Christmas, hoping the Sing audience might show up and that the intense viewing window would bump up the box office? Possibly. Or maybe we are just asking too much of the franchise. PP3 will pass the original’s total domestic box office before the weekend is over. It has no chance of getting close to PP2‘s $184 million domestic gross. But it is reasonable to question the idea that every film needs to become a franchise beyond a single sequel success. This is not the stock market. Films are not simple commodities. Easy to forget that, but it remains the simple truth.

The Greatest Showman is heading beyond the low-50s musical graveyard of Phantom of the Opera and Sweeney Todd. A little past Moulin Rouge. But not as big as one of the worst musical movies of all time, the Annie reboot, which was a crime against cinema AND musical theater, but still did $86m domestic. Showman is not in that category of bad. Not close. I dislike the film, but it is not an act of cruelty. Still, you can fool some of the people…

All The Money In The World opened Christmas Day and hasn’t hit $1k per screen on any day after that first day. My take is that the attention to the change in the Getty role distracted from the conversation about the movie to the degree that few people even seriously considered if they wanted to see the movie. Plummer is great, and if he gets nominated, will deserve it. But very few go see a movie to see a role change. And Sony didn’t do enough to change the conversation to the movie.

Like the movie, the campaign lacks a clock. The premise that the richest man in the world won’t pay a ransom didn’t click with wide swaths of audience. Didn’t that come up in testing? So what else is there? Well it’s not “Michelle Williams in Taken” either. Nor “Mark Wahlberg in Taken.” So what is it? It’s a kidnap victim passed around between criminals as a commodity. It’s Getty as Scrooge in the Christmas season. It’s five months of nothing happening. It’s The Ear. They did those billboards of The Ear, but they didn’t do a great job making the one thing people remember about the story the centerpiece of the marketing. The movie, which is sumptuous, has its own issues. But you have to find something to sell. And from my outside vantage, the marketing was as unfocused as the movie.

Darkest Hour and Downsizing are two very good,  or at least very interesting movies, if they aren’t your cup of tea, that are dying on the vine. A shame. There are clock movies this season that have no clock. Darkest Hour not only has a clock, but, by far, the most compelling clock. Not what they are selling… busy trying to make the Dunkirk association about now, which is death (that is, trying to ride the wake of another film that is not at all similar). And Downsizing is trying to sell the first third of the film that is physical comedy. The movie is better than that. And you are only seeing Oscar candidate Hong Chau in a few shots when she is, really, the female lead of the movie. Not an easy sell. But right now, it feels half-baked.

Not on this chart today are holding-tight holdovers The Post and Hostiles, on nine and five screens, respectively. The Spielberg is doing well on nine, but not expanding at Christmas was not a show of strength. Lincoln was Spielberg’s only other exclusive release film since Schindler’s List and it went wide after one week. Will there be Globes wins? Will it help?

And Hostiles just went for it too late in the game with too fresh a distributor. Really hard get… not getting it, it seems. Too bad. Strong movie. (And that outdoor looks like a History Channel series coming in January.)

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BLOOM
There cannot be a human being who has fewer thoughts on the whole question of word processing than I do. I’ve never even seen a word processor. I am hopelessly archaic. For me the typewriter hasn’t even been invented yet, so how can I speak to this matter? I protest! A man who has never learned to type is not going to be able to add anything to this debate. As far as I’m concerned, computers have as much to do with literature as space travel, perhaps much less. I can only write with a ballpoint pen, with a Rolling Writer, they’re called, a black Rolling Writer on a lined yellow legal pad on a certain kind of clipboard. And then someone else types it.

INTERVIEWER
And someone else edits?

BLOOM
No one edits. I edit. I refuse to be edited.

INTERVIEWER
Do you revise much?

BLOOM
Sometimes, but not often.
~ Harold Bloom

“So, what does it look like when he leaves the show? First, it looks like a ratings spike, and I had a nice chuckle about that. But the truth is, the ink wasn’t even dry on his exit papers before they rushed in a new guy. I was on vacation in Sicily, decompressing — it was a long working relationship and it was a tumultuous end and I needed a moment to just chill with some rosé — and they’re calling me, going, ‘What do you think of this guy?’ ‘What do you think of this guy?’ And they’re sending pictures. I was like, ‘Are you people fucking nuts? Why do you feel that you have to replace this person?’ I couldn’t believe how fast the studio and the network felt like they had to get a penis in there.”
Ellen Pompeo