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Friday Estimates by InDoryBrexit Day Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-06-25 at 9.28.40 AM

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Weekend Estimates by Klady Intelligence

Weekend Estimates 2016-06-19 at 10.07.13 AM

Sensational Finding Dory launch. Animation record. Fourth best opening for Disney in the last 14 months. One of five grossing over $100 million in that same period. And according to this estimate, it is Disney’s best non-Star Wars, non-Marvel opening.

Pixar’s only $100m+ openings? Sequels. Guess Michael Eisner was right. But he wasn’t able to make the relationship work with Lasseter, but Iger was, so Iger gets credit and Eisner gets unfairly dismissed. All a matter of perspective.

Central Intelligence is Kevin Hart’s second $35m (rounded) opening this year. And really, when you take Dwayne Johnson out of the F&F franchise and a lot of other elements he is dropped into (giant effects in San Andreas, theLasseter franchise, being a supporting actor), this is really his best opening. So, really, a bigger event for Dwayne than for Kevin. Of course, Kevin can’t lead a CGI movie that will gross megabucks internationally. But maybe this is a crossover event for both actors, even if the numbers aren’t Ride Along or San Andreas big.

Warcraft‘s $340 million overseas is keeping the media from kicking Universal over crap US numbers. X-Men: Apocalypse gets a similar safety net with $364m to date internationally.

The Lobster is up to $6.7m domestic. This makes it the #3 film to be on fewer than 1000 screens in 2016 tod ate, behind Love & Friendship (Amazon & Roadside) and The Perfect Match (a Lionsgate “urban” comedy that failed to take off). A24 should get more accolades for this success, taking the Cannes film from another distributor only days before a failed attempt at a domestic release, then going with it just a few months later with little support from its cast (Colin Farrell did a bit).

In fact, looking at the under-1000s, the thing I see all over is a lack of support from talent that cost these releases dearly in a low-margin release environment. Susan Sarandon and JK Simmons for The Meddler and Michael Moore for his Where To Invade Next, are really the only fully-committed talent – aside from some photos and a couple late-night talk shows – amongst the top 25 films in this category. To be fair, many of these films are not celebrity talent-driven. But the ones that are… could their (small) numbers be doubled by the talent giving the distributors a couple more days of time to make the case? I think so.

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Friday Estimates by Just Keep Swimming Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-06-18 at 8.32.30 AM

Pixar’s best launch with Finding Dory.

And I have bad news for Disney bashers. I expect that Disney will have a word-of-mouth hit in The BFG, in spite of weak tracking, and a significant surprise hit in Pete’s Dragon, which defines “low key” in terms of big summer profile. BFG is, by a margin, the best of the current Disney run of big-footprint family films. And I suspect that Elliot (the dragon) will also deliver on quality, given the trailer and David Lowery. So even if neither delivers Marvel-like numbers, quality helps extend the remarkable run for Disney.

The question on Dory isn’t whether it will pass Toy Story 3‘s $110m Pixar record, but whether it will pass Disney’s best non-Marvel, non-Star Wars opening ($135.6m), Pirates 2. It could be close.

Central Intelligence didn’t get to Ride Along‘s $14.4m opening day, But it is a tick up from this year’s hit Kevin Hart team-up, Ride Along 2. Kevin Hart is legit, but he does live in 1990s Denzel world. He is guaranteed, but he has a ceiling. This will be his eighth $20m+ opening in four years. That is major. But as with many funny people – and to be honest, black performers – he is not as big overseas and though he and Ice Cube brought in $154m worldwide for Ride Along, Hart can reasonably be projected to be a likely $90m – $110m worldwide grosser every time. That ain’t nothing. But it’s a different equation than, say, Eddie Murphy, who was a consistent $200m+ worldwide player in the 80s and early 90s. Denzel has broken that barrier internationally in recent years. Perhaps Hart will over time.

Not a pretty Friday for holds this week. The exception is Alice Through The Looking Glass, which fell into second-run houses four weekends in, suggesting a film people (especially families) wanted to see, but were not compelled to pay full fare.

I have said this a million times, but third-run theatrical at discounted prices across the board should be part of the MPAA strategy for keeping theatrical healthy. There are a lot of people who would come out to see a film 3 or 4 or 5 weeks into a run for the cost of a VOD buy, but who aren’t going to buy VOD. Going out for movies is an important part of the experience for a lot of people who can’t afford the highest priced tickets, especially in urban centers. With DVD as less of a reason to avoid second run – which the industry really crushed in the 90s – the weeks between first run and post-theatrical can be milked for what I guess could be as much as 4x what it generates now. This used to be a very big business.

Tickled opening strong… in the way a two-screen opening can be strong… $10k per. There are many people excited about this doc. But it’s been three years since Magnolia managed a theatrical with over $1.4 million in theatrical… and even a million has been rare for the VOD-driven distributor.

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Weekend Estimates by 2 Turntables & A Videogame Klady

Weekend Estimates 2016-06-12 at 11.15.13 AM

Sorry. Got nothing. Waiting for actual news from Orlando, as opposed to the relentless, endless speculation that is currently flooding our media.

Bless the lost souls of innocents in Orlando.

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Friday Estimates by OK Klady

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My computer has been having a dramatic few days. So doing this on an iPhone. Apologies.

The drop-off on The Conjuring 2 is marginal. The fantasy of a sequel jump is over, but even if the film comes up $20m short of the original, a happy situation for everyone involved.

Likewise, a 16% drop-off on Now You See Me Again isn’t a Great Depression. Nor is it going to get congratulatory cars delivered on Monday. This sequel clearly is designed to push to Episode 3… and that may be I jeopardy now… unless they already shot a bunch of it. There were stories about development, but did they shoot some of 3 on 2? Don’t know. No evidence they did. But I wonder…

More to come…

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Weekend Estimates by Never Trust A Turtle Under 36 Klady

Weekend Estimates 2016-06-05 at 12.16.13 PM

Modern movie journalists aren’t happy unless they have some great overreaching theory to expound upon, showing they anticipate the future. Few do. Not because they aren’t smart, but because they think in too short a window.

The current rage: “The Mega-Movie Sky Is Falling!!!”

There are absurd analyses that studios will re-think the business model because of flops like Alice 2, Turtles 2, and X-Men 8. But this analysis only holds up for about three weeks. For the first time in movie history, there are four films as of June 1 that have grossed over $850 million worldwide. This doesn’t include the near-$800 million Star Wars 7 brought in during this calendar year.

People forget that there was only one comic book movie last year that did over $550 million-plus in 2015 (Avengers 2) the entire year. This year, we already have three and a fourth that is going to get there (X8).

There is a glut. And it is going to get worse. And the cycle for comic book films will faces a day of reckoning. Yes, yes, yes.

But in reality, X-Men: Days of Future Past (which did $748m worldwide) is the anomaly of the X-Men franchise, not the standard. X-Men Apocalypse is right in line with the franchise, the #5 amongst the eight films after 10 days and destined to be #2 behind only DoFP (less than $57m from that status as of this writing).

Batman v Superman is not a great success for WB or as the fuel for enormous DC franchise success. But it is the #8 grossing comic book movie in history, a group led by 4 Iron Man-led movies, followed by Nolan Batman films 2 & 3, Spidey 3, and BvS. So in terms of reasonable expectations, BvS is a flop only in comparison to two Nolan films. Marvel caught lightning in a bottle with Downey as Iron Man and has never made a $850m ww grosser in which he does not star.

Point is… movie journalists wildly overstate the significance of outliers, successes or failures. There is a hard reality in producing movies that cost $200m-plus and another $150m to market worldwide. The lowest gross – as it reflects on the full revenue stream – to break even on these movies is in the mid-400 millions. But every movie doesn’t need to do a billion dollars either.

Another detail… the top four movies of 2016 so far have a China asterisk of between $25 million and $60 million in studio returns that will not be coming back to the studio because China returns less (about half) of the ticket sales than other international markets.

I know… details are boring. Chicken Little is better over coffee.

All that said… this weekend sucked. With cause.

No one expected Michael Bay’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot to do almost $200m domestic and almost $500m worldwide. The number this weekend, in the much more aggressively dated release for the sequel, is about where people expected the first film to be. Why would Paramount double-down and shove an August film into June? Because they have three movies dated in late July-early August. Not really a big enough to success to believe it needed an upgrade on the schedule. If a 2nd film did $600m worldwide, then it could get ambitious. But best laid plans…

This is similar to the story of Alice 2, which was a surprise monster hit from the previous movie regime (Dick Cook/Oren Aviv) a few months after “off with their heads!” A spring surprise… where movies and their marketing have time to breathe… shoved into the fiery cauldron of May without the benefit of pent-up demand for classic characters and with a lot of satisfied customers for Zootopia and The Jungle Book, which live in some of the same emotional movie space.

And as long as I am making excuses for franchises, was there someone at Fox who actually believed that Jennifer Lawrence in blue paint as Mystique was the same as Jennifer Lawrence in The Hunger Games and she could carry X-Men: Apocalypse by herself, in terms of box office power? Huge misstep by the studio. And Marvel, by the way, deciding to completely wimp out and (SPOILER) not kill anyone in Cap v Irony Man, speaks to this very issue. Marvel is going to milk the original, established talent at any cost for as long as these actors can walk and have their wrinkles erased digitally. Downey doing Iron Man 4 is the end of integrity… sure… but they aren’t handing the keys to their empire over to Taron Egerton, hoping the suit and some jokes will make people forget Downey.

Warner Bros, which has a lot of talent that has opened a lot of hit movies for a lot of years, is in trouble. They can’t deliver the basics right now. They have had just two $20m openers amongst seven 2016 releases so far. One was BvS. The other was just barely over $20m… Barbershop 3, which had the weakest launch of the three films, though all were very close, meaning there is a locked-in audience. $18m for Me Before You isn’t a disaster. No Games of Thrones star has shown they can open a movie, so this is reasonable. But WB needs some wins. The group needs its swagger back. Three of their next five movies will open pretty well, I suspect. But that barely brings them to par, unless there are some shocking breakouts. I am honestly rooting for them now. You hate to see a company of this size and history flail like this, as it has now for a couple of years.

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping reminds us how Andy Samberg opens. Fetch isn’t going to happen. Hopefully, it was really cheap and the money can be made up in post-theatrical. The marketing budget was tiny, it seems, so there is that.

The arthouse scene was also weak, with a couple one-screen wonders passing $10k per, but… not really much happening… sadly.

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Friday Estimates by Is It Still Summer? Klady

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Weekend Estimates by Is That All There Is? Klady

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Friday Estimates by Memorial Day-Blase Klady

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Well… it’s not a happy weekend in Movieland. The new X-Men is off almost 30% from last time… Alice 2 is off more than 75% (though in many ways, this is the better of two not-great movies)… Nothing but The Jungle Book is holding well, not even a terrific movie like The Nice Guys which didn’t have much to hold…

If we were basing it only on domestic box office, these two $200m+ budget films would be on their way to eight-figure writedowns (or more). But international could save one or both that ignominy.

But for everyone assuming that mega-budget movies were a monolith from which there is no escape… think again.

This brings the count (not including kids’ animation) to two hits, three misses, and Deadpool for the year, with five more to come this summer. And next year, investments already made, offers the chance for even more potential carnage.

Marvel is still doing great. Wouldn’t bet against Star Wars. There will be other “can’t-miss” franchise films. But as the standard by which the industry operates, we are a few more bloody noses away from a lot more caution about mega-movies.

Things change.

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Weekend Estimates by Klady Guys 2: Angry Birds Rising

Weekend Estimates 2016-05-22 at 9.26.53 AM

No significant variations from the Friday estimates. Angry Birds rule the roost. Neighbors 2 opens to about 45% of the original. And The Nice Guys finish last amongst the newcomers. Strong per-screen numbers in limited/exclusive runs by The Lobster, Love & Friendship, Weiner, Maggie’s Plan and Ma Ma.

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Friday Estimates by Klady: Bird Wars

Friday Estimates 2016-05-21 at 10.17.19 AM

The first summer weekend loaded with multiple movies is going to disappoint. It’s not a disaster, but it’s not a thriller.

The Angry Birds Movie will open as the #2 franchise for Sony Animation, between Cloudy and Transylvania. But not a big step closer to DreamWorks or any step at all towards Disney or Pixar. This movie will be a success. But there is a difference between succeeding and finding a spot at the cash trough.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising is a tough beat. $8.7m opening day vs a $19.6m open just 2 years ago. What went wrong? I don’t think it was the movie. If you really liked the first one, you can be expected to like this sequel. Of course, opening weekend is about marketing. My take is that Universal didn’t sell the kink of the film. Broad strokes (no pun intended) only. You have a strong “girl power” theme in the film with the Moretz character leading the charge to change the way women are treated in Greek life. Not in the ads… not an appeal to women. (The first film also had an unsold feminist streak.) Then you have Zac Efron pushing back against type as he sees his value drop in the world in his post-frat life. Not in the marketing mix.

Now… Universal may well have tested these ideas and has them rejected or test less well than the pitch for the first film, which they kinda stuck to closely. So instead of a trio of diverse young women pushing back against the objectification culture of frats by starting their own in their own way, we get bikinied-boob-car-wash.

In some ways, this feels like the same misstep as Magic Mike XXL. It is not easy to look at a big hit and say, “The movie went a different direction… we should go there with the marketing too.” Much more the norm to stick with selling the same movie again with some added elements. If you, as a marketer, got this same result after changing up the marketing, no doubt that some bosses would then question your choice and say it was a mistake, where as rolling out the same campaign and the film dropping by more than half would surely seem to be the fault of whatever made the first movie blow up just falling out of the zeitgeist. I don’t think it would be true… but it is the safer play.

The Nice Guys is the heartbreaker of the weekend. WB went for it. All the way. More side marketing/publicity for this movie than you ever, ever see… maybe once every couple years, from the entire studio system. They threw everything and the kitchen sink at this one.

And to be fair, this one will do more business in the first 36 hours than Kiss Kiss Bang Bang did overall (a year ago). But… a $10m-ish opening weekend is not a great pay-off. As George S. Kaufman said, “Satire is what closes on Saturday night.” And really, this film is a 70s-style satire, in the spirit of Michael Ritchie, Altman, and Colin Higgins.

The Friday gross is just a bit lower than The Coens’ Hail, Caesar!, so they are in good company in their disappointment.

Honestly, as a film lover, it makes me angry at the audience. But it also makes me want to flip the bird at the “they could never make a film like this in 2016″ crowd too. They did make the film. A major released it. They released Hail, Caesar!. They released Money Monster and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which are imperfect films, but were not going to find a bigger audience either way.

Then you have a film like Where to Invade Next, which is, by far, Drafthouse’s biggest release…. by also, by far, Michael Moore’s lowest grosser with a release over 55 screens.

Very frustrating. But at the same time, it is too simplistic to simply blame comic book movies and studio greed for this. The studios are businesses and they do react to the market. And when films like The Good Guys, which got a hardworking release don’t take off at all, everyone notices. It’s easy to second guess the details of marketing campaigns for a lot of movies this year… but not this one. So…

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Weekend Estimates by Disney Hold Klady

Weekend Estimates2016-05-15 at 9.34.24 AM
What is remarkable about this weekend isn’t the grosses, but the Disney holds. 59% for Captain America: Civil War is exceptional. The Jungle Book dropping just 28% screams repeat viewing. And even Zootopia was off only 15%. On the arthouse side, The Lobster (from the hipsters at A24) and Love & Friendship (from that veteran distributor, Amazon Studios) were on four screens each and both managed over $30k per screen… not earth-shattering, but a solid sample for indie… now word of mouth…

CA:CW held, according to estimate, just 2% less than Deadpool, which was by all accounts loved by its audiences. The Jungle Book isn’t holding quite as well as Zootopia in Weekend 6, but still, that’s a comparison to one of the strongest surprise holders of recent years. By the way, Zootopia is now at $970 million worldwide. The downside, as though there is one for this kind of success, is that about a quarter of that gross is from China, cutting the rental dollars returned to Disney on that money at about 40% of what it gets from the rest of the world, making a $120 million return into just under $50 million. Maybe MPAA should hire Donald Trump to negotiate the exhibition agreement with China after he loses the run for the presidency.

In other news… Money Monster was a meh opener, but not a disaster in context. It is Jodie Foster’s first wide release movie as a director and did better per-screen than any of the other three films. It opened better than Clooney’s The American, which was considered a success (in part, because it was so unexpected). Another Clooney hit, Monuments Men, opened a bit better, but was an all-star romp. In other words, if this holds fairly well and does $50 million domestic… it will be fine. And it will be fascinating to see if it plays at all overseas.

For inexplicable reasons (taxes/avoiding obligations of the parent company?), small distributor, FilmDistrict, launched an arm called High-Top, which this weekend released its second horror film in two years (The Darkness) and… didn’t work out. The first film, The Green Inferno, had a lot of publicity from the media. Still only did only $7.2 million… so this is an improvement. Doesn’t feel like much of one.

On the indie side, it was all The Lobster and Love & Friendship. Big per-screen openings. And whatever these films do, it will be almost completely on marketing and word-of-mouth, as the talent hasn’t done a lot of promotion for either.

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Friday Estimates by Klady Monster

Friday Estimates 2016-05-14 at 9.11.04 AM

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BYOB

byobobamalincoln650

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Weekend Estimates by Disneyville Klady

Weekend Estimatest 2016-05-08 at 10.26.02 AM

The dichotomy of covering a movie like Captain America: Civil Wars is that it’s the #5 opening of all time… and the #4 opening of the last year, one of 8 $100m openings in the last 365 days (leaving out the 5/2 Avengers 2 opening).

History Lesson: Before 2005, there were two $100m openings in movie history. None before 2002. In 2005 & 2006, there were two each year. 2007, three. Back to two each in 2008 & 2009. Then, four in 2010 and 2012. Back to two in 2013 & 2014. Last year (2015)… SIX. This year? Four already.

Along with this movement, there was a movement to much more spending. $200 million – $300 million budgets have become the norm in this category. When films like Deadpool or Minions come along, they are the exception to the rule. This is also why Twilight and The Hunger Games were so valuable… because they could be done for much less than the CG events (although they also have a glass ceiling that doesn’t inhibit some of the other franchises).

I do not subscribe to the idea that these mega-movies replace space that would otherwise be used for smaller ($15m – $60m) films. I see them as a new category within the business. Two-thirds of studio releases are still in that “smaller” category. Disney is the only studio that is currently mega-movie dominant with its slate. And it’s going great right now. But look at the franchises they have… Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney Animation, and Disney Classics. Other studios can compete with Disney Classics and if Warner Bros could ever get out of its own way, DC could compete with Marvel. But there is no other Star Wars (we’ll see what Jim Cameron delivers with Avatar 2-5). Pixar is in a perfect position of having less pressure to deliver more than one film a year, which is how they built greatness. And Disney Animation, finally firing on all cylinders, has some competition in DreamWorks Animation, but also has the Pixar advantage of being able to stick to (or stop chasing more than) one film a year.

Keep in mind, the three outside franchises cost Disney about $13 billion. That is a huge investment, which has not been paid off in real dollars yet. But it’s going great. Comcast is the only other studio that has made a billion dollar-plus investment in its own growth. Paramount or Fox could have made the deal for Lucasfilm and it would have made sense, library-wise and moving forward. Didn’t. No one was really taking Marvel seriously when Disney made their deal.

Add to this the fact that Disney’s production group spends more than $2 billion a year on production. The norm used to be roughly half of that for an active studio. Very roughly estimated (and not accounting for financial partnerships), Fox and Warner Bros are each in for about $1.2 billion this year. Universal is just under $1 billion. Paramount is around $800 million. Sony is in for less than $700 million.

Picking winners is obviously important. And Disney has built a lot of can’t-miss into their system. But they have made the huge investments and taken the huge risks when no other studio has.

Finally, another big-picture point. Marketing costs have not subsided. The giant films with the giant budgets cost more to make than to sell, even with bigger spends. But a $10 million movie at a major costs – with a full wide release – as much to push out as a $50 million movie. (Genre is an exception, which is why you see so much of it and why Jason Blum is worth his weight in gold.)

Disney has nine franchise movies this year… and three “smaller” films. They already lost big money (relatively) on The Finest Hours. They have two more coming… both dumped into the “iffy zone” of September.

Disney can afford to get out of the middle movie business completely. The only reason for them to stay in is ego and self-amusement. No matter how successful by the standards of those films – and they have not been for years, even with some really good movies – they mean nothing to the bottom line of a company working with the investment numbers they are working with. On the other hand, they can’t be hurt much by these films either.

Everyone else though… they need to be in the same movie business that the industry has been seen the decline of DVD… with the occasional mega-movie landing. They really have no choice. Universal bought DWA and continues to try to figure out how to reboot their monster franchises. And they had success last year and will in the future. But things are not set up for that to be the whole pie. So calm down a little. The sky is still there.

As for the rest of the weekend… meh.

Marvel has the only wide opener. Jungle Book is holding well. The Huntsman is now a dead franchise. Etc.

On the other hand, the indie business, which has been whining a lot lately, has had a pretty good 2016 so far. Aside from the religious films (Miracles from Heaven leads all of them so far with $60 million), there are nine indies over $15 million so far. One is Divergent 3, which bombed domestically, one of five Lionsgate movies in this group. But STX, A24, OpenRoad and Bleecker Street all have solid successes. Neither IFC or Magnolia have had a $1m movie, much less a $15m one. They are in a third category now, thanks to short-window VOD. Searchlight and IFC are the per-screen limited release stars of the weekend. The question, as always, is what comes next.

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The whole world within reach.
~ Filmmaker Peter Hutton

“Though he was celebrated for “Dispatches,” enjoyed his fame for a time and was, Claudia Herr said, extremely proud of the book, he came to resent his celebrity, especially when reporters or television producers wanted him to relive his time in Vietnam. Among other things, a retrospective light shining on him struck him as disrespectful to the men he wrote about. He gave few interviews. In the last years of his life, he became a serious devotee of Buddhism and no longer wrote, his daughter said.”
~ Bruce Weber On Michael Herr

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