..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

March 13, 2003

Why "Nicole Vs. Renee" Matters
by David Poland

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The Oscar Strategy Du Jour seems to be Miramax's positioning of Renee Zellweger as the only actress who is in serious competition with Nicole Kidman for the Best Actress.

Why does it matter? Why now?

Ms. Zellweger did win the SAG Award this weekend, which turned out to be the harbinger of an Oscar win last year as Halle Berry upset Ms. Kidman at both ceremonies. But more pointedly, classic political campaign strategy demands that as dominant candidates emerge, the leaders try to bring the potential voters for secondary candidates into the fold with the "don't waste your vote" strategy.

"Don't Waste Your Vote" appeals, subtely, to the Diane Lane, Julianne Moore and Salma Hayek voters to revel in the acomplishment of "just being nominated" and to get behind a winner. The drawback is that some Oscar watchers are already hypothesizing that Kidman and Zellweger could end up cancelling one another out and that Lane or Moore could sneak in the back door (with all due respect to their excellent performances).

Other key strategy points in the personal races include:

* The Daniel Day Lewis vs. Jack Nicholson battle asserted itself without any studio effort at all.
* Miramax's effort to position Martin Scorsese as the only director worth voting for - "come be part of the love fest" - may have left him as the presumed frontrunner for a little too long.
*The same "too long the leader" problem may have undercut Charlie Kaufman, who was the presumed lock for Adapted Screenplay for Adaptation.
* Catherine Zeta Jones' strategy of chasing the Best Actress slot at the Golden Globes instead of Best Supporting Actress, which people have felt backfired, may be coming back around to help her to win an Oscar as an obvious choice turned into an underdog.
*Christopher Walken, the only Best Supporting Actor nominee who actually seemed to be campaigning agressively, may be paid back for his effort, after upsetting long-standing presumed winner Chris Cooper at the SAG Awards.