By Ray Pride Pride@moviecitynews.com

The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1

The Gurus make their final estimations of the field as seen by the Academy… no huge surprises, but Vice tumbled to the bottom almost all categories, with a few stray hopes for an editing nod. Free Solo blowed up real good; sentiment toward RBG rises.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 12 92
2 2 Green Book
2 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 12 86
4 5 The Favourite
3 2 4 5 3 3 5 7 5 5 4 5 12 57
3 4 Black Panther
8 8 3 4 5 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 12 56
5 3 BlacKkKlansman
4 5 6 3 4 5 4 5 4 4 6 4 12 54
6 7 Bohemian Rhapsody
7 3 5 6 6 8 6 4 6 6 5 6 12 40
7 6 A Star Is Born
5 6 7 7 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 7 12 32
8 8 Vice
6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 16

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 51
3 3 Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
4 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 13 35
4 4 Pawel Pawlikowski
Cold War
5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 4 5 3 13 24
5 5 Adam McKay
Vice
3 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 The Favourite
1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13 60
2 2 Green Book
2 5 2 5 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 13 50
3 4 First Reformed
4 3 4 2 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 13 32
4 5 Vice
5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 13 22
5 3 Roma
3 1 23 3 3 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 13 11

Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 BlacKkKlansman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 3 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 4 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 13 47
3 2 If Beale Street Could Talk
3 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 13 42
4 4 A Star is Born
4 3 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 13 26
5 5 The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Incredibles 2
2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 48
3 3 Isle of Dogs
3 2 3 2 2 2 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 13 40
4 5 Ralph Breaks The Internet
5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 3 4 13 24
5 4 Mirai
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Cold War
Łukasz Żal
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 12 46
3 The Favourite
Robbie Ryan
2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 12 35
4 A Star Is Born
Matthew Libatiqe
4 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 12 22
5 Never Look Away
Caleb Deschanel
5 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 4 12 17

Rank Last Chart Film Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bohemian Rhapsody
2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 12 52
4 3 Vice
1 1 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 5 12 47
3 4 BlacKkKlansman
5 5 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 12 31
2 2 The Favourite
3 4 3 3 2 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 12 28
5 5 Green Book
4 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 5 4 12 20

Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Free Solo
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 13 60
2 1 RBG
2 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 13 55
3 3 Minding the Gap
3 2 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 13 38
4 4 Hale County This Morning, This Evening
4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 13 28
5 5 Of Fathers & Sons
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 13 14

Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 2 Cold War
1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 53
3 3 Shoplifters
3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 5 13 29
4 4 Capernaum
5 3 3 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 4 5 4 13 26
5 5 Never Look Away
4 5 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 13 23

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitterFacebook
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

 

3 Responses to “The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1”

  1. YancySkancy says:

    So two Gurus think Green Book is the least likely nominee to win in the Best Original Screenplay category? That almost seems objectively wrong.

  2. Ray Pride says:

    Mileage appears to vary.

  3. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I’m guessing they think the controversy about it is more damning than it really is. I’ll groan if it wins.

Quote Unquotesee all »

“I remember very much the iconography and the images and the statues in church were very emotional for me. Just the power of that, and even still — just seeing prayer card, what that image can evoke. I have a lot of friends that are involved in the esoteric, and I know some girls in New York that are also into the supernatural. I don’t feel that I have that gift. But I am leaning towards mysticism… Maybe men are more practical, maybe they don’t give into that as much… And then also, they don’t convene in the same way that women do. But I don’t know, I am not a man, I don’t want to speak for men. For me, I tend to gravitate towards people who are open to those kinds of things. And the idea for my film, White Echo, I guess stemmed from that — I find that the girls in New York are more credible. What is it about the way that they communicate their ideas with the supernatural that I find more credible? And that is where it began. All the characters are also based on friends of mine. I worked with Refinery29 on that film, and found that they really invest in you which is so rare in this industry.”
Chloë Sevigny

“The word I have fallen in love with lately is ‘Hellenic.’ Greek in its mythology. So while everyone is skewing towards the YouTube generation, here we are making two-and-a-half-hour movies and trying to buck the system. It’s become clear to me that we are never going to be a perfect fit with Hollywood; we will always be the renegade Texans running around trying to stir the pot. Really it’s not provocation for the sake of being provocative, but trying to make something that people fall in love with and has staying power. I think people are going to remember Dragged Across Concrete and these other movies decades from now. I do not believe that they will remember some of the stuff that big Hollywood has put out in the last couple of years. You’ve got to look at the independent space to find the movies that have been really special recently. Even though I don’t share the same world-view as some of my colleagues, I certainly respect the hell out of their movies which are way more fascinating than the stuff coming out of the studio system.”
~ Dallas Sonnier