By Ray Pride Pride@moviecitynews.com

The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1

The Gurus make their final estimations of the field as seen by the Academy… no huge surprises, but Vice tumbled to the bottom almost all categories, with a few stray hopes for an editing nod. Free Solo blowed up real good; sentiment toward RBG rises.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 12 92
2 2 Green Book
2 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 12 86
4 5 The Favourite
3 2 4 5 3 3 5 7 5 5 4 5 12 57
3 4 Black Panther
8 8 3 4 5 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 12 56
5 3 BlacKkKlansman
4 5 6 3 4 5 4 5 4 4 6 4 12 54
6 7 Bohemian Rhapsody
7 3 5 6 6 8 6 4 6 6 5 6 12 40
7 6 A Star Is Born
5 6 7 7 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 7 12 32
8 8 Vice
6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 16

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 51
3 3 Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
4 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 13 35
4 4 Pawel Pawlikowski
Cold War
5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 4 5 3 13 24
5 5 Adam McKay
Vice
3 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 The Favourite
1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13 60
2 2 Green Book
2 5 2 5 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 13 50
3 4 First Reformed
4 3 4 2 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 13 32
4 5 Vice
5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 13 22
5 3 Roma
3 1 23 3 3 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 13 11

Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 BlacKkKlansman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 3 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 4 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 13 47
3 2 If Beale Street Could Talk
3 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 13 42
4 4 A Star is Born
4 3 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 13 26
5 5 The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Incredibles 2
2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 48
3 3 Isle of Dogs
3 2 3 2 2 2 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 13 40
4 5 Ralph Breaks The Internet
5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 3 4 13 24
5 4 Mirai
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Cold War
Łukasz Żal
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 12 46
3 The Favourite
Robbie Ryan
2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 12 35
4 A Star Is Born
Matthew Libatiqe
4 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 12 22
5 Never Look Away
Caleb Deschanel
5 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 4 12 17

Rank Last Chart Film Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bohemian Rhapsody
2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 12 52
4 3 Vice
1 1 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 5 12 47
3 4 BlacKkKlansman
5 5 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 12 31
2 2 The Favourite
3 4 3 3 2 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 12 28
5 5 Green Book
4 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 5 4 12 20

Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Free Solo
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 13 60
2 1 RBG
2 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 13 55
3 3 Minding the Gap
3 2 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 13 38
4 4 Hale County This Morning, This Evening
4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 13 28
5 5 Of Fathers & Sons
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 13 14

Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 2 Cold War
1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 53
3 3 Shoplifters
3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 5 13 29
4 4 Capernaum
5 3 3 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 4 5 4 13 26
5 5 Never Look Away
4 5 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 13 23

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitterFacebook
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

 

3 Responses to “The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1”

  1. YancySkancy says:

    So two Gurus think Green Book is the least likely nominee to win in the Best Original Screenplay category? That almost seems objectively wrong.

  2. Ray Pride says:

    Mileage appears to vary.

  3. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I’m guessing they think the controversy about it is more damning than it really is. I’ll groan if it wins.

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“With any character, the way I think about it is, you have the role on the page, you have the vision of the director and you have your life experience… I thought it was one of the foundations of the role for John Wick. I love his grief. For the character and in life, it’s about the love of the person you’re grieving for, and any time you can keep company with that fire, it is warm. I absolutely relate to that, and I don’t think you ever work through it. Grief and loss, those are things that don’t ever go away. They stay with you.”
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“I was checking through stuff the other day for technical reasons. I came across The Duellists on Netflix and I was absolutely stunned to see that it was exquisitely graded. So, while I rarely look up my old stuff, I stopped to give it ten minutes. Bugger me, I was there for two hours. I was really fucking pleased with what it was and how the engine still worked within the equation and that engine was the insanity and stupidity of war. War between two men, in that case, who fight on thought they both eventually can’t remember the reason why. It was great, yeah. The great thing about these platforms now is that, one way or another, they’ll seek out and then put out the best possible form and the long form. Frequently, films get cut down because of that curse in which the studio felt or feels that they have to preview. And there’s nothing worse than a preview to diminish the original intent.Oh, yeah, how about every fucking time? And I’ve stewed about films later even more because when you tell the same joke 20 times the joke’s no longer funny. When you tell a bad joke once or twice? It’s fine. But come on, now. Here’s the key on the way I feel when I approach the movie: I try to keep myself as withdrawn from the project as possible once I’ve filmed it. And – this is all key on this – then getting a really excellent editor so I never have to sit in on editing. What happens if you sit in is you become stale and every passage or joke, metaphorically speaking, gets more and more tired. You start cutting it all back because of fatigue. So what you have to do is keep your distance and therefore, in a funny kind of way, you, as the director, should be the preview and that’s it.”
~ Sir Ridley Scott