By Ray Pride Pride@moviecitynews.com

The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1

The Gurus make their final estimations of the field as seen by the Academy… no huge surprises, but Vice tumbled to the bottom almost all categories, with a few stray hopes for an editing nod. Free Solo blowed up real good; sentiment toward RBG rises.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 12 92
2 2 Green Book
2 4 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 12 86
4 5 The Favourite
3 2 4 5 3 3 5 7 5 5 4 5 12 57
3 4 Black Panther
8 8 3 4 5 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 12 56
5 3 BlacKkKlansman
4 5 6 3 4 5 4 5 4 4 6 4 12 54
6 7 Bohemian Rhapsody
7 3 5 6 6 8 6 4 6 6 5 6 12 40
7 6 A Star Is Born
5 6 7 7 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 7 12 32
8 8 Vice
6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 16

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 51
3 3 Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
4 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 13 35
4 4 Pawel Pawlikowski
Cold War
5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 4 5 3 13 24
5 5 Adam McKay
Vice
3 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 The Favourite
1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13 60
2 2 Green Book
2 5 2 5 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 13 50
3 4 First Reformed
4 3 4 2 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 13 32
4 5 Vice
5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 13 22
5 3 Roma
3 1 23 3 3 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 13 11

Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 BlacKkKlansman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 3 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 4 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 13 47
3 2 If Beale Street Could Talk
3 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 13 42
4 4 A Star is Born
4 3 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 13 26
5 5 The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Incredibles 2
2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 48
3 3 Isle of Dogs
3 2 3 2 2 2 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 13 40
4 5 Ralph Breaks The Internet
5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 3 4 13 24
5 4 Mirai
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 13 20

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Cold War
Łukasz Żal
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 12 46
3 The Favourite
Robbie Ryan
2 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 12 35
4 A Star Is Born
Matthew Libatiqe
4 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 12 22
5 Never Look Away
Caleb Deschanel
5 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 4 12 17

Rank Last Chart Film Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bohemian Rhapsody
2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 12 52
4 3 Vice
1 1 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 5 12 47
3 4 BlacKkKlansman
5 5 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 12 31
2 2 The Favourite
3 4 3 3 2 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 12 28
5 5 Green Book
4 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 5 4 12 20

Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Free Solo
1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 13 60
2 1 RBG
2 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 13 55
3 3 Minding the Gap
3 2 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 13 38
4 4 Hale County This Morning, This Evening
4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 13 28
5 5 Of Fathers & Sons
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 13 14

Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 2 Cold War
1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 53
3 3 Shoplifters
3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 5 13 29
4 4 Capernaum
5 3 3 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 4 5 4 13 26
5 5 Never Look Away
4 5 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 13 23

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitterFacebook
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

 

3 Responses to “The Gurus o’ Gold Oscar Blowout – Part 1”

  1. YancySkancy says:

    So two Gurus think Green Book is the least likely nominee to win in the Best Original Screenplay category? That almost seems objectively wrong.

  2. Ray Pride says:

    Mileage appears to vary.

  3. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I’m guessing they think the controversy about it is more damning than it really is. I’ll groan if it wins.

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