Gurus Predict, Post-Guilds: Director, Production Design, Film Editing, Animated Feature; As Well As Doc Feature, Cinematography, Costume Design, SFX and of course, BEST PICTURE

We lead with Best Cinematography, with the Gurus’ prediction for most likely and second most likely right there in black-and-white.

Best Picture shows only a little light between its one and two as well, with Roma still favored over the unexpectedly strong Green Book.

While not a true toss-up, the Gurus find Spike Lee rising as their universal second choice for likely directorial glory.

Battles royal The Favourite and Black Panther vie to be seen for production design.

The Gurus also sense that the guilds awards strength for the massive hit Bohemian Rhapsody could push the “Bo Rhaps” to an editing win, substantially ahead of The Favourite.

Foreign-language estimate of Oscar voter sentiment also doubles up with the monochrome, with Roma and Cold War.

For documentary feature, the prediction is sentiment toward the ailing Supreme Court associate justice and RBG, with Free Solo climbing right behind.

No hawing, only hemming, with The Favourite for costume design.

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Cold War
Łukasz Żal
3 3 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 2 3 2 12 41
3 The Favourite
Robbie Ryan
2 2 3 4 4 2 4 2 4 3 2 3 12 37
4 A Star Is Born
Matthew Libatiqe
5 4 4 3 2 4 5 3 3 5 4 4 12 26
5 Never Look Away
Caleb Deschanel
4 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 12 16
Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Roma
1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 11 83
2 2 Green Book
4 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 11 79
3 3 BlacKkKlansman
5 6 3 4 4 3 3 3 7 5 3 11 53
4 4 The Favourite
2 4 4 3 5 5 8 5 3 6 6 11 48
6 5 Black Panther
8 3 5 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 11 48
5 6 A Star Is Born
6 5 6 7 3 6 5 6 6 2 5 11 42
7 7 Bohemian Rhapsody
3 7 7 6 8 8 6 7 5 7 8 11 27
8 8 Vice
7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 11 14
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 12 45
3 Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
5 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 12 33
4 Pawel Pawlikowski
Cold War
3 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 12 22
5 Adam McKay
Vice
2 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 5 4 12 20
Rank Last Chart Production Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Favourite
1 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 12 55
2 Black Panther
3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 12 51
3 Roma
2 3 3 5 5 3 4 3 5 4 3 4 12 28
4 Mary Poppins Returns
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 3 3 5 5 12 26
5 First Man
5 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 12 20
Rank Last Chart Film Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Bohemian Rhapsody
4 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 5 1 1 1 12 49
2 The Favourite
2 3 2 1 4 1 4 4 4 2 2 5 12 38
4 BlacKkKlansman
3 5 5 3 3 5 2 2 2 3 4 2 12 33
3 Vice
1 2 4 5 2 4 5 5 1 5 3 3 12 32
5 Green Book
5 4 3 4 5 3 3 1 3 4 5 4 12 28
Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Roma
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 59
2 Cold War
1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 12 49
3 Shoplifters
3 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 5 3 3 12 30
4 Capernaum
5 3 5 3 5 4 5 4 4 3 5 4 12 22
5 Never Look Away
4 5 4 5 3 5 3 5 5 4 4 5 12 20
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
2 Free Solo
1 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 12 51
1 RBG
2 4 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 12 50
3 Minding the Gap
3 1 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 3 1 3 12 39
4 Hale County This Morning, This Evening
4 5 4 3 4 4 4 2 4 5 4 4 12 25
5 Of Fathers & Sons
5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 12 15
Rank Last Chart Costume Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Favourite
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 12 56
2 Black Panther
3 4 2 4 2 2 1 1 4 4 1 1 12 43
3 Mary Poppins Returns
4 2 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 12 35
4 Mary Queen of Scots
2 3 4 3 4 3 5 4 2 2 3 4 12 33
5 Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 12 13
Rank Last Chart Visual Effects AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Avengers: Infinity War
1 2 2 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 12 52
2 First Man
2 4 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 4 12 46
3 Ready Player One
3 1 4 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 5 12 40
4 Solo: A Star Wars Story
4 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 2 12 24
5 Christopher Robin
5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 12 18
Rank Last Chart Best Makeup AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Vice
1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 12 33
2 Mary Queen of Scots
2 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 12 21
3 Border
3 3 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 12 18
Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 60
2 Incredibles 2
2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 12 46
3 Isle of Dogs
3 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 12 37
4 Mirai
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 3 12 19
5 Ralph Breaks The Internet
5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 5 5 12 19

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter; Facebook
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

4 Responses to “Gurus Predict, Post-Guilds: Director, Production Design, Film Editing, Animated Feature; As Well As Doc Feature, Cinematography, Costume Design, SFX and of course, BEST PICTURE”

  1. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Ack. So the Marvel film that will win an Oscar is Avengers, not Black Panther.

  2. Bob Burns says:

    Watching The Favorite, one would never guess that Queen Anne, the Churchills and Godolphin had the political gravity needed to lead Britain through a long, difficult world war (called the actual first world war by Winston Churchill). Sarah Churchill and Anne were heroines, giants of history, but they are here reduced to little more than buffoons in a broadly acted British pantomime show. This in the era of Me Too?

  3. bradley laing says:

    —Do the Gurus O’ Gold know if “Free Solo” winning the Oscar will increase its box office sales, or not?

  4. Ray Pride says:

    After 20 weeks, it’s made just under $16 million. The IMAX and other large-screen re-releases have done very well.

    That’s the seventeenth-highest grossing documentary, according to Boxofficemojo.

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