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BYO Most Unlikely Oscar Upset Prediction

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51 Responses to “BYO Most Unlikely Oscar Upset Prediction”

  1. Greg says:

    Dianne Warren wins best song.

  2. movieman says:

    A win for one of the “Roma” actresses?

  3. Buddy says:

    A Star Is Born wins Best Picture

  4. YancySkancy says:

    Not sure if it would be an upset exactly, but Spike Lee getting a career award over Cuaron.

  5. Christian says:

    Some company other than Pixar wins Best Animated Short.

  6. Hcat says:

    That the show is entertaining.

    Christian, isn’t Spidey a lock at this point? That is one pick I am very confident on.

  7. Bob Burns says:

    Yalitza Aparicio, Roma, dancing in the streets.

    NY Times Opinion page, an article on Netflix and internationalism. Before reading this, Roma felt like a one off, a beautiful oddity.

  8. Sideshow Bill says:

    I think the academy is so in the bag for Pixar that it’s almost a given, even though Spidey was eons better. Frankenweenie and Mr. Fox also should have Oscars.

  9. palmtree says:

    LOL Christian said Best Animated SHORT for Pixar.

    I think, and hope, that Spidey will win animated feature.

  10. movieman says:

    “That the show is entertaining.”

    That would be the biggest surprise of the evening for sure, Hcat.

  11. Hcat says:

    What am I, supposed to read the entire statement and craft an accurate response? Its the internet.

    But thanks for pointing that out palmtree.

  12. Bulldog68 says:

    I think there will be no bigger gravity defying feat than the collective jaws dropping en masse if after the sentence is said “The Oscar for Best Picture goes to…….Black Panther.”

  13. Christian says:

    Yeah, I was thinking of “Bao” in the Best Animated Short category. Seems to be the favorite to win. As with most Pixar shorts, I liked it, maybe even more than a couple of other nominated-in-recent-years Pixar shorts. I just get tired of them being the presumptive winner – even if, if memory serves, Pixar doesn’t ultimately win Best Animated Short (though it usually does, right?).

  14. palmtree says:

    Bulldog, that’s why I think as much as we think people are done with the Oscars, that it actually will do okay. People want to see what happens. The possibility is just too amazing.

  15. BO Sock Puppet says:

    Foreign Pic: Roma
    Screenplay: Schrader
    Supp Actor: Ali
    Supp Actress: Adams
    Actor: Malek
    Actress: Close
    Director: Lee
    Pic: Green Book

  16. movieman says:

    I predict that Rami Malek will have an even less illustrious post-Oscar career than Adrien Brody, Roberto Benigni or Jean Dujardin.

  17. Bulldog68 says:

    Disagree on Rami Malek, Movieman. Malek has been a constant Emmy fave for his Mr Robot turn. And most who didn’t like Bohemian Rhapsody have still felt his performance was worthy of consideration. And I think no other actor had generated the level of nausea that Roberto has generated.

  18. Js partisan says:

    Yeah. Rami Malek is an awesome actor. Watch fucking Mr. Robot, or any other time he pops up in things. Seriously. He’s a talent, and Adrian Brody assaulted someone getting an Oscar. He gets what he gets.

  19. movieman says:

    Nah, definitely not a fan.

    I find Malek fairly off-putting, and wasn’t impressed by his (soon-to-be) Oscar-winning performance which struck me as karaoke mimicry.
    My favorite performance in the movie (which, full disclosure, I loathed: ranked #5 on my 2018 10-worst list) was turned in by Mike Myers.

  20. Bulldog68 says:

    It always amazes me how two people can watch the same film and come away with diametrically opposite opinions. I thought Malek was great in the role and elevated a paint by numbers script with his performance. If his portrayal didn’t work, the film wouldn’t have clicked with audiences.

    BR has also primed the audiences for Rocketman, which after watching the second trailer I was quite surprised to hear them say that Taron Egerton is doing all the singing, so no karaoke performances here. That’s tremendously brave and I’m stoked to see how that pans out and if Oscar comes calling for another music icon portrayal again.. He hasn’t really impressed me as an actor but musicals seem to be making $200m at the box office now.

  21. YancySkancy says:

    “Malek has been a constant Emmy fave for his Mr Robot turn.”

    Actually, he’s only been nominated once for Mr. Robot, for season one, though he did win it. Reminds me of Michael Chiklis winning for the first season of The Shield but not rating even a nomination for the subsequent six seasons.

  22. Bulldog68 says:

    I stand corrected Yancy. He has 2 Globe noms as well.

  23. Night Owl says:

    “He has 2 Globe noms as well”

    Ah, so he kisses ass well? He may do fine.

    All joking aside I liked Malek fine before this Oscar campaign; now I can’t stand the sight of him. If he doesn’t do much after this I’d feel no loss. Rational? Maybe not, but it’s not the first time Oscar campaigning nonsense has turned me off. He will likely work, but he’s an odd looking fellow, so it will be interesting to see where Hollywood sticks him.

    The upset I would love? Willem Dafoe. Out of left field like the nomination and loooooooooong overdue. It would be the best shocker.

  24. JS Partisan says:

    Oh. I can totally see Dafoe winning, because it just seems plausible.

  25. movieman says:

    …or Paul Schrader winning for “First Reformed.”
    Talk about overdue!

  26. Bulldog68 says:

    2 wins for Panther already. Could make for an interesting night.

  27. Bob Burns says:

    way better without 20 minutes of a stand-up comic ridiculing Hollywood. stand-up comedy is on TV everywhere anyway. this thing should be a box of marvels and love.

  28. Sideshow Bill says:

    I also find Malek off-putting and his performance amounted to nothing more than a wig, an accent and false teeth. I’m tired of this garbage movie and of best Actor always just being given to “guy who played person from real life.” Eddie Redmayne was the worst. Original characters are harder to do and get shafted. ETHAN HAWKE GODDAMNIT!!

    But whatever. The slog is over for another year.

  29. Hcat says:

    Wasn’t thrilled about who they went to (though yippee for Colman), but for the ceremony itself that was pretty harmless. Certainly more limber than anytime in recent memory. Song presentations were well done, they didnt have a singer step all over the in Memorium. They jokes weren’t great but there were a lot fewer groaners this year. Not a bad watch.

    Though am I crazy in thinking that Queen is a B level band? Their music is fun and they certainly have talent, but I never thought they were in the same Stones-Bowie-Beatles-Dylan-Prince stratosphere that this movie and the awards season narrative tries to place them It feels like the Doors all over again.

  30. JS Partisan says:

    HC, Queen is one of the most important rock bands, or bands in general, in the history of music. They are without a doubt on that level, because their music is fucking fantastic. Yes. Once Freddie gets sick. The music became even more theatrical, and less rock. This doesn’t change, that the world is INHERENTLY LESS without the music of Queen. Musically? Lyrically? There are few on the level of Queen, and that few? The fucking Beatles, and David fucking Bowie.

  31. Hcat says:

    Finally watched Star is Born over the weekend, liked it quite a bit, but laughed out loud when Jon Peters name came up as a producer. Has anyone made more money with not actually being involved in projects?

    JS, thanks for the reply, I always thought of them as a few notches above the Who, maybe even with Pink Floyd. Someone who was massive for a time but would fade farther from relevance each year. I was taken by surprise by how well Rhapsody did, not just here but worldwide, and didn’t know if it was the strength of the movie or the strength of the music.

  32. Sideshow Bill says:

    I agree with JS on Queen. And that is EXACTLY WHY they and Freddie deserved a better movie.

    Queen fucking stomps. The movie is a dumpster fire.

  33. palmtree says:

    Even if all they had created was the song Bohemian Rhapsody, Queen would still be one of the greatest bands ever. It’s epic in all the ways most bands only aspired to be. But then of course they could also write ditties and hooks with the best of them as well. And then Freddie was just an otherworldly level of talent and charisma. I mean, when Bowie duets with Freddie on Under Pressure, does anyone think Freddie seems somehow lesser than? Sorry, but HELL NO.

  34. amblinman says:

    “There are few on the level of Queen, and that few? The fucking Beatles, and David fucking Bowie.”

    Queen doesn’t have a fraction of the catalogue of either.

    And the movie was pure garbage.

  35. Sideshow Bill says:

    Yea, I wouldn’t put Queen with The Beatles, or The Kinks, who were, pound for pound, better than The Beatles.

    That’s right.

    But Freddy was one of the great front men ever. He was no Joey Ramone, though. But who is?

  36. Js partisan says:

    One more time…. THE MOVIE WAS ABOUT STREAMING MUSIC, AND IT SUCCEEDED. It’s awful, but it was just a way to idolize the other members of the band, and make sure more people keep playing it. Also, they put out a lot of records, and they are all pretty good until the last one.

    Second, the Kinks can’t hold Queen or The Beatles jock, but they are definitely a top ten all time band.

  37. Sideshow Bill says:

    The Kinks were better.

    That’s it.

  38. Sideshow Bill says:

    Praising BR in anyway, especially as just a cynical vehicle to sell music, is beneath you JS.

    I really can’t remember another film I’ve felt so openly hostile towards. I have good friends who think it’s brilliant and I can’t look them in the eye. I feel like I don’t know these people. If you are so suggestive that great music convinces you a shit movie is a golden egg well, then, I’m punting. Enjoy your crap

  39. Pete B. says:

    Took the wife to see Bohemian Rhapsody as she was curious, and I’ve got to say it was more palatable the 2nd time around. I wasn’t focused on the songs being out of order and the blatant lying. As the opening lyrics to the title song ask: “Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?” Its definitely the latter.

    And Queen’s first four albums are untouchable. 5 & 6 are pretty great too. The one thing the movie got right was that Hot Space was their worst.

  40. amblinman says:


    I don’t think anyone is disputing that Rhapsody is a cynical marketing ploy and not a legitimate movie. Why are you yelling?

  41. Hcat says:

    Curious how many other artists could be plausibly given the ‘Yesterday’ treatment. Could a film be made about the only person to remember the Kinks songs being heralded as the greatest songwriter ever? Queen? Lou Reed?

    I could see it working with Wonder and perhaps the Stones, Bowie and Elton, not sure if I could see it with say Springsteen or U2.

    And last week or so I was complaining about all the films I want to see this summer all coming out on the same day and you guys were right, the Mangold moved to November.

  42. Pete B. says:

    The thing with ‘Yesterday’ is that it would have to be songs that are so prevalent, you know the words even if you’re not a fan of the artist.

    Maybe Elton, Michael Jackson, and Neil Diamond (who wrote songs for alot of folks including The Monkees – RIP Peter Tork).

  43. Hcat says:

    Would have never thought of Diamond but quite a good choice. Which leads me to mentally review my Aunt’s vinyl collection and wonder where the Mamma Mia-ish John Denver Jukebox Musical is. That would do like 50 million in Japan alone!

  44. palmtree says:

    Denver would kill in China. He was like the only Western singer whose music was allowed in the country in the 70s for some reason.

  45. Hcat says:

    c’mon Cadavra, you’re in the industry, make that happen, probably pay for a new house or nest egg for retirement to EP Annie’s Song. It was around the time of Denver’s death (it would make me feel ancient to know how long ago that was) that a quote of his came out where he said “I know people use me as a punchline sometimes, but if you go to any Karoke bar in the world, or any corner of a world with a jukebox that has up to four English songs, I guarantee you that I am there.” (heavily paraphrased by memory)

    Pete B mentioned the Monkees, and I have been waiting decades for that to get an updated movie version. You would think it writes itself, set it in the sixties, make it a silly beach movie like the television show was, toss in their greatest hits, bake for 87 minutes.

    And not for nothing but I hear the Go-Gos stage play is phenomenal. They can keep these up for years, and I for one would look forward to that than the inevitable Blue Beatle adaptation.

    Sorry for rambling more than usual but I am beyond tense and retreating to movies is calming when you have two people who might not have qualified for high school diplomas without their family connections negotiating a nuclear treaty, while two of the most unstable nuclear powers are mortaring civilians and shooting down planes in disputed territory. Meanwhile further testimony on Trump’s unfitness for office is coming today and will likely bounce off the atmosphere since his party has weaponized stupid and they can’t stray from the party line no matter how nonsensical it gets.

    And if the press gets bad enough, Venezuala is sitting there to provide the Wag the Dog scenario.

    So every once in awhile today I will be thinking of musicals.

  46. Js partisan says:

    Bill, it’s a shit movie. I’m just stating, that there’s no reason to get indignant over it, because it’s a shit movie. No one is going to remember it by the end of this year. Let alone for the years to come, it’s a shit movie, that was made to get streams,and it worked. Good show to them, but fuck them.

    And why is Queen better? Freddie beats Ray. It’s that simple, but the Kinks are an all top-10 band. They really are.

  47. YancySkancy says:

    Freddie beats Ray? Not on my planet. I like Queen, but I wouldn’t rank them on the same tier with Beatles, Stones, Who, Kinks.

  48. Christian says:

    Guys, you’re not gonna believe this, but Pixar won Best Animated Short.

    It’s true.

  49. Pete B. says:

    I know some folks here get annoyed when Star Wars gets brought up, but have you seen the “Star Wars Always” trailer that Topher Grace helped put together? WOW! It brought a tear to my wife’s eye and I had to drag her to the theater for SW films. Good stuff!

  50. Hcat says:

    It was good indeed, it actually lead me to watch Last Jedi again on Netflix this week. Might give Rogue Squadron another peek soon as well.

    Anyone who was discouraged with Malek’s Oscar win can take Solace in the fact that they will get to see him be smacked around by Daniel Craig in Smasherfist or whatever nonsense title they are currently calling the new Bond.

    And those of you hoping for an Alita sequel, China is doing well and it should make double its budget worldwide in the next few weeks, Japan will be the deciding market. At this point it makes the same economic sense as continuing Edge of Tomorrow or Pacific Rim franchises.

  51. Js partisan says:

    Topher Grace needs to crawl back in his hole, and fuck right off. Nothing is more grotesque to me, as a fan of Star Wars, than this shit sitcoms actor thinking he has the chops to meddle with Star Wars. He’s a fucking hack, but I’m sure fucking LFL will give him a job. He is a white male after all, and only white males can make Star Wars movies… apparently.

    Freddie wouldn’t be cut from American tv like Ray was during the Olympics. Again, the Kinks are top 15, Ray is definitely top ten, but Freddie Mercury was and is, a seismic fucking event of singing and performing and writing, that has never been replicated in close to five decades. This is just another thing, that I find you all wrong about, so good job :D!

    Oh yeah. If China is our sworn economic enemy all of a sudden, then basing domestic filming decisions on China… is going to continue be weird. Until someone else is running the show.

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It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
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~ David Simon