The Gurus o’ Gold On Key Categories

The Gurus let go of multiple outliers and one-vote-wonders for Best Picture this go-round. 

Strong sentiment for Bohemian Rhapsody elevates Rami Malek’s profile.

Actresses off the Guru radar include Felicity Jones, Natalie Portman and Saoirse Ronan.

As with the Academy, the Guru screenplay predictions hold surprises, including BlacKkKlansman leading adapted and Roma sandwiched by leader The Favourite and a maybe not-so-surprising showing for First Reformed, for yet-to-be-nominated writer-director Paul Schrader.

Rank Last Chart Best Pic Post-Thanksgiving AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 A Star Is Born
1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 12 117
2 2 Roma
3 2 2 3 2 1 5 1 2 4 2 4 12 101
4 4 The Favourite
4 3 3 5 3 3 2 4 5 6 6 6 12 82
3 7 BlacKkKlansman
6 4 5 1 5 6 4 6 6 3 4 2 12 80
6 3 Green Book
2 6 4 3 4 9 6 3 3 5 5 5 12 77
5 5 Black Panther
7 5 8 7 6 4 3 5 4 2 3 3 12 75
7 6 If Beale Street Could Talk
8 7 7 6 8 5 8 8 7 10 7 9 12 42
8 8 Vice
5 8 6 9 7 7 7 10 7 8 10 36
9 10 Mary Poppins Returns
10 9 9 8 9 7 9 12 9 8 10 11 21
9 First Man
10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 11
10 Bohemian Rhapsody
9 10 9 9 7 5 11
First Reformed
10 9 10 3 4
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
8 11 2 3
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondNathanielRSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Regina King
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 12 76
2 4 Amy Adams
Vice
3 2 3 1 4 3 3 2 1 3 4 2 12 65
3 5 Rachel Weisz
The Favourite
1 4 1 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 4 12 62
4 3 Emma Stone
The Favourite
2 3 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 4 2 3 12 58
5 2 Claire Foy
First Man
5 5 6 5 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 11 32
Michelle Yeoh
Crazy Rich Asians
6 5 7 7 7 6 6 10
Margot Robbie
Mary Queen of Scots
7 7 5 7 7 6 6 9
Emily Blunt
A Quiet Place
5 6 6 7 7 5 9
Nicole Kidman
Boy Erased
7 7 6 6 6 5 8
One Vote Wonders
Elizabeth Debicki
Widows
6 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondNathanielRSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Lady Gaga
A Star Is Born
1 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 12 77
2 2 Olivia Colman
The Favourite
3 1 2 1 2 4 2 3 1 3 3 4 12 67
3 4 Glenn Close
The Wife
5 5 3 3 5 3 1 3 1 4 2 11 53
4 3 Melissa McCarthy
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4 3 4 5 1 4 5 4 5 2 3 11 48
5 Emily Blunt
Mary Poppins Returns
2 5 3 4 5 6 7 4 6 4 5 7 12 38
5 Yalitza Aparicio
Roma
7 7 6 2 5 5 5 6 8 21
Toni Collette
Hereditary
6 6 7 7 7 5 7
Nicole Kidman
Destroyer
7 6 6 3 5
Julia Roberts
Ben is Back
7 5 2 4
Viola Davis
Widows
7 6 2 3
Elsie Fisher
Eighth Grade
6 7 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Rosamund Pike
A Private War
6 1 2
Joanna Kulig
Cold War
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Mahershala Ali
Green Book
1 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 12 77
2 3 Richard E. Grant
Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
4 2 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 12 73
3 2 Sam Elliot
A Star is Born
2 3 3 3 2 5 2 2 4 2 3 3 12 62
4 Adam Driver
BlacKKKlansman
3 6 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 6 5 11 39
5 4 Timothée Chalamet
Beautiful Boy
6 4 5 4 4 4 6 3 6 4 4 11 38
Sam Rockwell
Vice
5 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 7 7 10 20
5 Michael B. Jordan
Black Panther
7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 5 6 11 18

0 0
One Vote Wonders
Russell Hornsby
The Hate U Give
5 1 3
Steven Yeun
Burning
7 1 1
Bryan Tyree Henry
If Beale Street Could Talk
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bradley Cooper
A Star Is Born
3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 12 76
2 3 Christian Bale
Vice
4 3 4 2 3 1 2 2 4 2 3 2 12 64
3 4 Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody
1 1 3 3 4 3 5 4 3 4 2 1 12 62
4 2 Viggo Mortensen
Green Book
2 4 1 4 2 4 3 3 1 3 4 4 12 61
5 Ethan Hawke
First Reformed
5 6 5 5 5 7 5 5 5 5 10 27
Willem Dafoe
At Eternity's Gate
7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 10
5 Ryan Gosling
First Man
7 7 6 7 7 5 6
John David Washington
BlacKKKlansman
5 6 6 6 7 f 6 6 7 5 10 0
One Vote Wonders
Robert Redford
Old Man & The Gun
6 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 12 81
2 2 Bradley Cooper
A Star is Born
2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 12 69
3 4 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
3 2 3 1 3 4 3 2 3 2 3 2 12 65
4 3 Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
4 5 6 5 3 5 4 4 4 6 6 11 36
5 Peter Farrelly
Green Book
5 7 7 5 6 7 6 5 6 5 5 11 24
Adam McKay
Vice
4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 21
5 Barry Jenkins
If Beale Street Could Talk
6 7 7 6 7 4 5 4 8 18
Ryan Coogler
Black Panther
5 5 4 7 7 7 5 7 16
One Vote Wonders
Paul Schrader
First Reformed
4 1 4
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Marielle Heller
6 1 2
Damien Chazelle
First Man
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Favourite
2 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 12 76
2 Roma
1 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 2 5 5 2 12 60
3 First Reformed
5 2 1 1 5 2 5 3 4 3 4 4 12 57
4 Green Book
3 6 5 3 4 7 3 2 3 2 1 1 12 56
5 Vice
6 5 4 4 3 6 4 4 6 4 3 6 12 41
Eighth Grade
4 4 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 12 30
Sorry To Bother You
7 6 7 7 7 7 6 7
Private Life
7 4 2 5
A Quiet Place
7 7 7 7 4 4

0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 BlacKkKlansman
2 1 1 1 2 4 1 1 2 1 4 1 12 75
2 If Beale Street Could Talk
1 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 3 3 12 70
3 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 4 2 2 4 12 58
4 A Star Is Born
5 3 5 4 1 2 4 3 1 2 10 50
5 Black Panther
3 4 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 10 26
First Man
6 7 7 6 6 6 7 5 8 14
Crazy Rich Asians
5 7 5 5 5 5 13
The Death of Stalin
5 4 6 4 4 13
Leave No Trace
6 7 7 5 7 5 8
Wildlife
7 7 2 2
One Vote Wonders
The Hate U Give
5 1 3
Widows
6 1 2
The Front Runner
7 1 1

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

2 Responses to “The Gurus o’ Gold On Key Categories”

  1. Glamourboy says:

    You have Timothee Chalamet listed twice on the supp actor chart, with different numbers

    [Ed.: Thank you, fixed! Stragglers from prior chart.]

  2. bradley laing says:

    —I did post this on March 3, 2018. But did anyone find an “online” measuring device for if the Oscar show was cared about by people who used their telephones?

    —From what I have read online, I suspect that the television audience for the Oscars will not be as large as a lot of people, inside and outside of the film industry, want it to be.
    —But since the complaint I have heard is that everyone is watching their small screen telephones, should someone count the web-traffic of things related to the telecast?
    —Is there a measuring stick for “they care about the Oscars, they just don’t want to watch it on TV
    tonight”?

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