Roma

Gurus o’ Gold Speak Best Picture, Foreign Language, Doc Feature

A Star is Born, Roma, Green Book and The Favourite and Black Panther sentiment shifts slightly but are still neck-and-neck favourites. Extra love for Mary Poppins Returns as screenings accelerate, and First Reformed after nods from the New York Film Critics Circle.

First consideration of best foreign language pictures lead off with Roma, Cold War and the festival-lauded Shoplifters, Capernaum and Burning.

Best documentary candidates lead with box-office champs Won’t You Be My Neighbor? ($22.6 million), RBG ($14 million), Free Solo ($9.8 million), Three Identical Strangers ($12.3 million) and Hulu-premiered Minding the Gap.

Pictures dropping off the radar for the moment: The Front Runner, The Mule and Boy Erased.

Rank Last Chart Best Pic Post-Thanksgiving AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 A Star Is Born
1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 4 2 1 12 137
2 2 Roma
3 3 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 2 12 129
3 3 Green Book
2 2 3 1 3 5 2 3 3 3 1 5 12 123
4 4 The Favourite
4 4 4 8 4 3 5 4 5 5 6 7 12 97
5 5 Black Panther
7 5 6 12 6 4 4 7 6 1 5 10 12 83
6 6 If Beale Street Could Talk
10 7 6 5 6 6 6 4 8 7 4 11 74
7 8 BlacKkKlansman
6 6 11 5 7 8 7 8 8 6 8 8 12 68
8 7 Vice
5 8 5 4 8 5 10 4 8 55
9 9 First Man
8 9 12 7 9 10 9 7 9 6 10 44
10 Mary Poppins Returns
7 10 9 9 11 9 7 12 8 30
10 10 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9 10 8 10 12 11 10 11 12 11 10 26
First Reformed
9 12 11 3 4 17
Eighth Grade
11 8 11 9 4 13
On the Basis of Sex
10 7 2 9
A Quiet Place
10 12 9 3 8
Widows
11 12 12 3 4
The Mule
0 0
The Front Runner
0 0
Boy Erased
0 0
One Vote Wonders
The Hate U Give
9 1 4
RBG
10 1 3
Bohemian Rhapsody
10 1 3
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
10 1 3
Cold War
11 1 2
Creed II
11 1 2
The Rider
12 1 1
Crazy Rich Asians
12 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Roma
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 83
2 Cold War
2 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 65
3 Shoplifters
3 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 5 10 44
4 Capernaum
5 3 5 5 5 4 5 3 3 4 4 11 42
5 Burning
3 2 4 4 3 6 4 6 6 3 10 39
Girl
4 6 5 4 7 5 14
Border
4 7 7 7 7 7 6 9
Never Look Away
7 7 5 5 7 5 9
Sunset
6 5 2 5
One Vote Wonders
I Am Not a Witch
5 1 3
Birds Of Passage
6 1 2
Wild Pear Tree
6 1 2
The Guilty
6 1 2
10 Days Before The Wedding
6 1 2
Ayka
7 1 1
Supa Moda
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Won't You Be My Neighbor
1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 74
2 RBG
6 2 2 4 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 11 59
3 Free Solo
3 5 3 1 3 5 3 3 6 4 10 44
4 Three Identical Strangers
2 3 4 2 5 6 5 3 4 9 38
5 Minding the Gap
5 4 5 2 4 4 4 5 3 9 36
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
6 6 5 6 5 6 6 14
Quincy
6 3 6 5 4 12
Dark Money
4 3 7 3 10
Crime + Punishment
7 4 2 5
Shirkers
7 7 6 3 4
Science Fair
7 5 2 4
Of Fathers and Sons
7 7 7 3 3
One Vote Wonders
Amazing Grace
6 1 2
United Skates
7 1 1
Whitney
7 1 1
Fahrenheit 11/9
7 1 1

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

 

 

 

3 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold Speak Best Picture, Foreign Language, Doc Feature”

  1. John E says:

    Have people seen Welcome to Marwen yet? Just seems like it’d be Oscar catnip. Unless it’s an ambitious misfire like Downsizing.

    First Man left me cold. Technical awards, yes, but that’s it.

  2. Sam E says:

    @John E. It’s not just about the films themselves though. A lot of the time late in the year releases choose not send screeners to awards organization which pretty much by default puts them out of competition. As I understand it awards campaigns are actually quite expensive so there’s pro and cons of putting a film in contention.

  3. Bradley Laing says:

    —do any of the “Gurus O’ Gold” know if winning a Best Documentary Academy Award got more people to buy, rent, or watch in a theater, the doc “Icarus?” it was about sports doping by the Russian Federation government.

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