Roma

Gurus O’ Gold On Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Actor

For mid-November, the Gurus update their predictions for Best Picture, and take a first look at best supporting actor and best actor. 

Rank Last Chart Best Picture - October AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondNathanielRStoneSneider Votes Total
1 1 A Star Is Born
2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 3 13 146
1 3 Green Book
1 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 13 146
3 2 Roma
3 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 13 137
4 5 The Favourite
4 4 4 6 8 4 7 4 4 6 5 7 7 13 99
5 6 Black Panther
8 7 6 4 11 6 5 6 9 8 4 9 4 13 82
6 7 If Beale Street Could Talk
5 8 8 4 5 8 7 8 5 8 8 5 12 77
7 8 BlacKKKlansman
9 5 5 11 6 9 9 5 5 9 6 4 12 73
8 4 First Man
6 9 9 9 5 8 10 8 7 7 10 5 12 63
9 9 Vice
10 7 10 7 7 12 9 6 4 11 10 6 12 57
10 Widows
12 6 10 12 9 12 4 10 11 10 7 11 8 13 47
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me?
7 10 11 5 10 11 11 10 11 12 6 11 39
Boy Erased
12 12 11 12 9 5 9
Mary Poppins Returns
9 10 12 3 8
The Front Runner
8 12 2 6
A Quiet Place
10 11 2 5
One Vote Wonders
On the Basis of Sex
6 1 7
First Reformed
7 1 6
The Mule
10 1 3
Hereditary
11 1 2
Eighth Grade
11 1 2
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
12 1 1
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
12 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Mahershala Ali
Green Book
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 13 89
2 Sam Elliot
A Star is Born
2 2 3 5 3 1 6 2 3 4 1 3 5 13 64
3 Richard E. Grant
Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 6 3 4 4 13 62
4 Timothée Chalamet
Beautiful Boy
3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 6 2 2 12 54
5 Michael B. Jordan
Black Panther
7 5 4 6 5 6 5 7 5 9 22
Adam Driver
BlacKKKlansman
3 7 2 5 6 3 6 22
Sam Rockwell
Vice
6 7 6 7 5 3 4 7 8 19
Steve Carell
Vice
6 5 7 7 4 7
Daniel Kalyuua
Widows
7 6 5 3 6
Russell Crowe
Boy Erased
7 6 7 3 4
One Vote Wonders
Steve Buscemi
The Death Of Stalin
5 1 3
Andrew Dice Clay
A Star Is Born
5 1 3
Robert Forster
What They Had
5 1 3
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Mary Poppins Returns
6 1 2
Nicholas Hoult
The Favourite
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerLafflyMoralesPattersonPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Bradley Cooper
A Star Is Born
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 13 85
2 Viggo Mortensen
Green Book
2 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 1 13 76
3 Christian Bale
Vice
7 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 2 3 12 56
4 Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody
4 1 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 10 46
5 Ryan Gosling
First Man
3 5 7 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 7 7 6 13 31
Willem Dafoe
At Eternity's Gate
6 5 6 7 5 4 7 5 4 9 23
Ethan Hawke
First Reformed
6 7 7 6 3 5 11
Hugh Jackman
The Front Runner
4 6 6 7 4 9
Robert Redford
The Old Man & The Gun
5 6 2 5
Clint Eastwood
The Mule
6 5 2 5
John David Washington
BlacKKKlansman
7 5 2 4
Steve Carell
Beautiful Boy
0 0
One Vote Wonders
Chadwick Boseman
Black Panther
5 1 3
Lucas Hedges
Ben is Back
6 1 2

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian)
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist
Peter HowellToronto Star
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Tomris Laffly: Freelance (RogerEbert.com, Time Out New York, Film Journal International)
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film Blog
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily
Jeff SneiderCollider

8 Responses to “Gurus O’ Gold On Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Actor”

  1. Hcat says:

    It seemed for awhile that Viggo had retreated to films so small and under the radar they wouldn’t be contenders for awards anymore. So glad he is back in the conversation in any way.

  2. Jerry says:

    It is nice to see Widows drop since the trailer made it look so lame. Unfortunately Green Book has risen and the trailer makes it look like a sappy piece of crap.

  3. Viggo Mortensen should get Best Actor for Green Book. Please Viggo is not a racist at all. He fights for human rights here in the USA and in other countries as well. He was simply explaining about a period on our history. Don’t make something out of nothing. To grow as a country we have to move on. He is not a racist he loves all people, that is who he is…

  4. A star is born, Bradley Cooper really bI Don’t think so.
    OMG! It is not very good

  5. movieman says:

    I think Gosling and “First Man”‘s nomination hopes were K.O.-ed after its meh b.o. performance.
    But I still think “The Mule” is a dark horse. Does anyone know whether WB has officially green lighted an awards campaign? Seems crazy that a movie whose trailer practically screams “Oscar-Clint” (e.g., “Million Dollar Baby,” “Unforgiven,” “Gran Torino,” “American Sniper,” etc.) wouldn’t be afforded a proper awards push. Especially considering Eastwood’s long, long history w/ WB (which produced many blockbusters and two–count ’em–BP wins).

  6. Bradley Laing says:

    —if my memory is right, in the past, only 19 animated theatrical release movies had been put in theaters. Because of that, Disney, which wanted five nominating slots instead of three nominating slots, gave a premier and one-screen movie run to a (i assumed) originally direct-to-video movie.

    first, are there enough animated films, I assume 20 or more, in theaters this year, already?

    Would the Academy Awards really go forward with only three “Best Animated Feature” slots?

    The animated film I want to know about is “Isle of Dogs.” Does anyone have any ideas about its likelyhood of a nomination?

  7. Bradley Laing says:

    —A website called “Nerdlist” shows only 15 animated theatrical release films in 2018.

    Does that mean only three “best animated feature” slots at the Academy Awards, or not?

  8. Bradley Laing says:

    —Carolyn Giardina at “The Hollywood Reporter” writes that there are 25 animated features, so that means five “Best Animated Feature” slots at the Oscars.

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