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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates: Mission Succeeds But Doesn’t Blow Up, Titans Go Boom Boom

Weekend Estimates 2018-07-29 at 12.03.02 PM

A solid Mission: Impossible opening for Mission: Impossible.

You can’t complain about it. It’s the best in the series. But you can’t crow about it either. It’s the #7 opening of the summer (if you include Avengers, which I do).

It will gross between $195m and $210 million domestic and between $375m and $500 million internationally, a worldwide box office range of $570 million to $710 million.

Four of Cruise’s Top 5 worldwide grossers are M:I movies. This will push #5 down to #6. Could he his 3rd best ever. Could be his best. We’ll know in time and it won’t be because of domestic box office.

There is something nice about consistency. And this is one of the most consistent franchises in the world. In a way, it is a bit like Bond, pre-2012. Consistent growth for a mature franchise, not nothing shocking. Then BOOM, Skyfall almost doubles Quantum of Solace, which was the #2 all-time Bond grosser when it was released. The franchise goes from $500 million something a movie to over $1 billion. SPECTRE fell back a bit, but only to $880 million, which is still a giant leap in the franchise’s history.

I think that people expected this Mission to somehow be Skyfall. McQuarrie did a great job with the last M:I film (his first) and this was the payoff.

But… it’s not. Still right in the pocket.

I thought that Tom Cruise, while in amazing shape, looked every minute his 50seomthing years. It’s one of the things I liked about the film. But maybe we have to come to grips with movie stars, sans CG-driven ideas, being capped at $500 million international, a number Cruise has never broken.

Even Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle, which did almost a billion worldwide, was just barely past $500 million international… and aside from F&F, it was his biggest international movie by over $230 million.

I have been writing for years that the people who rage on about the CG and Franchise of it all have a flaw in their thinking… that the giant numbers are replacing “better” work, and in this case, the power of movie stars. My position is that big CG filmmaking has created a new space for the film industry and that comedies, dramas, movie stars, etc – our beloved elements of the past – are still there and thriving in many cases. They are just overshadowed by the big movies in a media culture that is primarily interested in drawing the most attention possible, not telling a well-rounded story.

The measures of the movie world have changed dramatically. Screaming into the ether about how cruel the world is that has brought unto us the billion dollar gross is just willfully missing the facts.

51 Responses to “Weekend Estimates: Mission Succeeds But Doesn’t Blow Up, Titans Go Boom Boom”

  1. movieman says:

    That’s a horrible figure for the expansion of the Van Sant.
    And it looks as though “Blindspotting” will peter out even faster than “Sorry to Bother You” and “Leave No Trace.”
    Sad.
    On the bright side of the indie-scape, “Eighth Grade” and “Three Identical Strangers” continue to do nicely, and “Neighbor?” crossed the $20-million mark.

  2. Hcat says:

    After the ecstatic reviews it seemed inevitable that MI would pass Skyscraper, but to do it in theee days? Curious to see the demographic breakdown and wonder what type of legs this has. It needs a 3.5 multiplier to reach Solo, but if this is going to the older audience….we don’t always make out opening day( I have to wait until next weekend myself).

  3. Christian says:

    “Detective Dee” continues to be referred to on these charts as “Doctor Dee,” which has me wondering, Why not just go with “Rick Dees?”

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    A milestone of note: after trailing DreamWorks Animation for 12 years, Pixar has re-taken the lead this weekend in terms of total studio gross, something it surrendered around the time of MADAGASCAR 1/OVER THE HEDGE. Not sure whether to blame Dreamworks for blowing a gasket in terms of too much product making the studio fizzle out or to point to Pixar’s pivot to more sequels. It is worth noting Pixar’s output hasn’t changed much, while Dreamworks’ has cratered.

    I think it’s a bit funny looking back a decade to Pixar’s golden age (Ratatouille – Toy Story 3) and complaining on this blog about the fact Dreamworks was just cleaning Pixar’s clock in terms of overall box office. Now, Pixar is king again, and maybe sold its soul…. but its films remain better than any large animation shingle.

    The MI:6 weekend is a bit better than the number. The holds this weekend were pretty much the worst of the summer, I suspect because people on the East Coast realized there is an outdoors to explore for the first time since early July.

  5. Stella's Boy says:

    I am fairly indifferent about the M:I series. They haven’t made much of an impression on me and I can barely remember any of them. Hoffman in III and a few nifty set pieces, but that’s about it. When the rapturous reviews started coming in for Fallout, I figured it had more to do with critics being pleased to see a decent action movie than anything else. A friend really wanted to see it though so I tagged along. Needless to say, I am very glad I did. Damn it is a fun movie. Sure the villain’s nefarious plot is rather ho-hum and
    (SPOILERS!!!)
    Cavill’s real identity is obvious from the start, but it starts strong and only gets better. From start to finish, the helicopter chase is one of the best sequences I’ve seen in ages. Worth the price of admission on its own. I was ready to stand and cheer. It’s incredible. And really all the action is very well-staged. That chase through the window and on top of the building. Good stuff. What a treat to have a movie truly excite you and wow you. Cruise might be a nutjob but he’s still got it. I got my money’s worth and then some. Really pleasantly surprised. Happy it’s doing well.

  6. Cg says:

    With all the work Marvel’s done in recent movies to show off its de-aging CGI, I have to wonder who’ll be the first movie stsr to use it to five himself a digital facelift for an entire film. Nothing too drastic, just looking, say, 45 instead of 53.

  7. Mike says:

    They already do. It’s in a lot of stars’ contracts that there will be a set amount for digital “touch-up” of the stars’ appearance.

  8. amblinman says:

    SPOILER FOR MI: FALLOUT….

    Movie was really good. I dunno if it’s worth all the hype but whatever. Anyway, one fairly big flaw for me was the fact that the villain suuuuuuuuuucked. MI villains have never been that great, with the last couple of films devolving into these vaguely European dudes who all have beards. So how do they change it up this time? With Henry Cavill, who is so bland and charisma-free in his role I almost wondered if it was actually Sam Worthington with Cavil’s face CGI’d in along with his dumb mustache.

    Speaking of that mustache: Memo to Hollywood in 2018: you DO NOT need to have an actor grow a mustache so audiences are clued into the fact that he’s the villain. It was already obvious Cavil was the secret big bad from the trailers, guys.

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    -Potential Fallout Spoilers

    I agree regarding MI: Fallout’s villain amblinman, both in obviousness and lameness and mustache. It’s representative of a larger problem. By and large villains in blockbusters are pretty damn weak. I imagine the one in Skyscraper is as well. And The Equalizer 2. And so on. Could be wrong as I haven’t seen Skyscraper or E2, but nothing I’ve read has indicated either has a particularly memorable villain.

  10. amblinman says:

    I can vouch that EQ 2’s villain sucked donkey balls. You’re right about villains in general.

  11. movieman says:

    Hard to create a truly deplorable villain onscreen these days when we’re gaping at the biggest villain of them all in the White House 24/7.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    This isn’t new though. I remember bitching & moaning about villains in the early 2000s. I think XXX, of all movies, set me off. Marton Csokas was a terrible villain and I recall ranted about it back then. Something about missing truly deplorable villains and villains you loved to hate and loved to watch die. I can appreciate Trump not helping matters.

  13. Dr Wally Rises says:

    I dunno. Just this year Thanos and Killmonger were pretty great villains. Recently? Wallace in Blade Runner was effective if a little underused. Kylo is a wannabe but that’s kind of the point of the character. Fassbender’s David was a great character irrespective of what you think of the movies. Vulture in Homecoming was cool. Krennic in Rogue One was cool. In fact, Mendelsohn might be the new Gary Oldman in that regard.

  14. Stella's Boy says:

    Killmonger is a pretty good villain, that’s true. Haven’t seen Rogue One or Infinity War so can’t comment on their villains. Wallace didn’t do all that much for me. Vulture is pretty boring and I’d argue more representative of the problem with lackluster villains. That with one exception your list is comic book and Star Wars movies is greatly depressing, too.

  15. Joe Straatmann says:

    Lane was kind of a crappy villain from the get-go, though. In Rogue Nation, he was just a guy with a creepy voice who I have no idea why so many people would follow. Tom Clancy in his infamous Sum of All Fears commentary said it’s not wise to kill a member of your group in front of others because it creates trust issues. It feels like all Lane does is create trust issues from the moment he kills an innocent IMF employee in front of Hunt trying to “recruit” him.

    Not that it was the thing that really did it in for me on Rogue Nation. Rogue Nation kind of felt like The Living Daylights where I didn’t really have any big problems with it, but it didn’t really impress me, either. There’s the car sequence which was nice, and the water heist, but the rest fades rather quickly.

    Fallout had the missing pieces Rogue Nation was missing, I found. The action was ratcheted up, the intensity was continuous, and they took the weaker elements and put them in play in a much larger canvas so to soften the focus on them. I still love Ghost Protocol’s sense of adventure and ability to make character out of even little things like a malfunctioning glove, but this is still exceptionally solid.

    The weird thing is I couldn’t shake the feeling that 25% of Fallout was re-shot or edited out as a good amount of obvious things from the first trailer were missing (How do you just excise the ntire sequence that acted cliffhanger moment before you reveal the title in the trailer?). Also, did I miss something or-

    (SLIGHT SPOILER)

    How did the villains get the plutonium? I thought the entire first half of the movie was trying to make a deal for the plutonium to get it from an independent broker instead of the bad guys, but the deal goes belly-up after they reveal who Lark really is to everyone. But after that action sequence, suddenly the bad guys have the plutonium. I’m sure the woman’s security would’ve been easily handled by the Apostles, but I don’t remember any dialogue about that. The movie goes from, “We HAVE to keep from the plutonium at any cost” to, “Well, they have it. What can we do to stop it?” incredibly quickly.

  16. Hcat says:

    The independent broker sequence where they acquire the plutonium from an old man in a delorian from a mall parking lot was cut for time and tone.

  17. Triple Option says:

    Killmonger had the cause and the ‘tude to make for a lasting impression villain but my quasi-complaint was that he lacked the larger than life theatrics other films in that realm have had. Although, I did wrestle with that internally. If he’s kinda whacko and/or flamboyant over the top would his message and goal get sorta lost?

  18. Hcat says:

    Killmonger was perfect as is. It led gravitas to the film which would have been weakened if he was too mustache twirly. He works so well because in other circumstances he could have been a legit hero. The fact that he had a point and his turn to villainy was a direct result of the kings actions. He was a monster of their own creation.

    Criticism #4375 of BVS was how over the top Luther was.

  19. Pete B says:

    Still rather have an over the top Luther to the crappy CGI villain of Steppenwolf. WTF was that?
    {Criticism #10089453 of Justice League}

    And with 4.1% GDP and the lowest unemployment rate in years, maybe it takes a villain to get shit done?

  20. Greg says:

    yeah Pete, Trump is responsible for those numbers. Whatever.

  21. leahnz says:

    somehow it never ceases to be horrifying when people show you who they really are

  22. palmtree says:

    Obama achieved a 4% GDP number four times, including one time going up to 5%. I’m sure Republicans were congratulating Obama on that back then. *eye roll*

    Also, the falling unemployment rate began with Obama.

    45 isn’t getting shit done. He’s just really good at taking credit for shit he didn’t do.

  23. Glamourboy says:

    What the hell are they thinking at Moviepass…..not allowing their viewers to see blockbusters….what will they get to see? I’m sad that its going down…I’ve seen so many more films than would be able to see. It’s a sad time with this board going down, Moviepass, and also a film I am working on is in trouble. Seems that everything is sinking.

  24. brack says:

    Fallout is easily my second favorite movie of the summer after Infinity War. This series keeps bringing it. Now I’m playing catch up. Saw Jurassic World 2, and while not great, was pretty entertaining and I see where David is coming from with liking it. I’m ditching MoviePass in favor of AMC’s program since most of what I see is Dolby Cinema releases and I go to the movies every couple of weeks, but will probably go more because prefer premium screens since my home theater system is a more enjoyable experience than standard screenings.

  25. Amblinman says:

    I’d like to say I’m sad that MoviePass is dying but was there another outcome expected? It is one of the dumbest business models I’ve ever seen.

  26. Hcat says:

    MoviePass was like a bank giving away 20% interest on CDs. “Wow Look At How Much Business We Are Doing!”

    Pete, That GDP will be as fleeting as MoviePass, I have read numerous places that the GDP was goosed by anticipation of tariffs, countries stocking up on goods before the trade unpleasantries. We will see if it is at all sustainable though I haven’t read anything citing any economist thinking this is a good way to go ahead. Add to that the deficient funded tax cut that certainly isn’t trickling down (I know, what?, shocking), and his complete failures in foreign policy and the environment, plus his empowering of the worst aspects of the American Character, the only thing he is getting done is an unraveling of almost every structure that is designed to keep us safe, healthy and free.

    It makes sense in that since every Republican is a some different form of an old Burt Reynolds villain (Pence is sooooo Carney from Dixie Dancekings) that they would elect Buford T. Justice to lead them.

  27. Dr Wally Rises says:

    “It’s a sad time with this board going down, Moviepass, and also a film I am working on is in trouble. Seems that everything is sinking.”

    I’m sorry to hear about your own project man. As someone who aspires to be able to create their own material and live from it, anyone who has the stones to get out there and make their own creative stuff is my hero. Hope things turn around for you.

  28. BO Sock Puppet says:

    Government numbers regarding employment and other economic indicators are far less accurate than BO reporting. In other words, they are made up out of whole cloth. Trump’s are particularly egregious in their obvious falsity.

  29. Bulldog68 says:

    Wasn’t these economic numbers the same data Trump was saying was a lie under Obama? I don’t recall reading that he overhauled the department so that now that same data is being viewed as the Holy Grail.

    Hopefully Trump provides the “amazing” evidence his investigators found in Hawaii about Obama’s fake birth certificate. Or the video proof that hundreds of Muslims were dancing in the streets on 9/11. Or his tax returns he promised he’d reveal after he was elected, or the proof that he actually won the popular vote because millions voted illegally for Hillary, or the proof that his inauguration crowd was biggest in history, or that he understands that stealth planes are not actually invisible, or that the pussy grabbing tape was altered, and basically any of the thousands of lies that he tells like other people breathe air.

  30. movieman says:

    Finally got the chance to see “Eighth Grade” today.
    Fantastic zeitgeist film: it feels so real that at times you’d swear you were watching a documentary. It’s a movie that does just about everything right.
    This year’s “Ladybird”?

    Thought “Christopher Robin” was lovely and gentle w/ incredible CGI A.A. Milne characters: it’s a major comeback for Marc Forster.
    But I wonder if it’s maybe too sweet and too gentle for today’s ADD kids who prefer the fast and furious tempo of “Incredibles 2″ and “Hotel Transylvania 3″ (not to mention any iteration of “Fast and the Furious”).
    Guess we’ll find out this weekend.

  31. Glamourboy says:

    Thanks Dr. Wally Rises. I’ve mostly been a screenwriter but had a chance to step up to co-producing a project–it was finished, which was a minor miracle, but the movie keeps having set backs–problems with the distributor and investors and law suits–I really do wonder if that is the case with many films or just this one. I am trying to figure out what the mistakes were and how to do better on my own, next time. I’ve taken producing workshops but they in no way prepared me for the realities of a problem film.

  32. Sideshow Bill says:

    On the plus side I saw both MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT and FIRST REFORMED today. They both rocked my world, in different ways. Both are wonderful. Ethan Hawke…it’s time.

  33. Amblinman says:

    Venom. Woof.

  34. Pete B. says:

    ^ Actually Trailer #3 was kinda fun. Maybe it’s just Hardy’s delivery, but “I have a parasite” is my favorite line of the year so far.

  35. JS Partisan says:

    The Hot Blog is super fun these days, when I CAN’T EVEN GET THE DAMN THING TO LOAD! THAT’S FUN! YAY!

    1) Orange is a treasonous ass clown, and guess what? The defecit has blown up thanks to him. It’s what the repcons always do when they are in power, so the next time they run their fucking mouths about, “FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY.” A random democrat, needs to step to a podium and say, “What the fuck are you on about? You fiscally irresponsible, asshole.”

    2) Having a kid does kill seeing all the movies, but I am shocked so many of the “FILM TWITTER” folks had moviepass. Seeing movies for free wasn’t enough? YOU NEEDED MORE OF A BARGAIN? Shame. Shame. That’s the future of the movie biz in some shape or form, but moviepass just failed to grasp they needed to WORK WITH THE THEATRES.

    3) Venom is like Aquaman. You’re not going to get MSCU levels of quality, because that’s seemingly not what those movies are. They are very 90s or 80s inspired films, and people complaining about them are missing the point. They are what they are. There’s no more polish. There’s just Amber Heard’s CGI enhanced red hair, and Tom Hardy speaking like a baby.

    4)The James Gunn shit is such hard garbage, but this is what happens to a company. When old men how powerful positions, can’t google something being resolved in 2012, and think they are more important than Kevin Feige. Iger over paid for FOX, put the wrong person in charge of LFL, and let a serial molester run his animation division. Yet… he can’t rehire Gunn? Really?

  36. Sideshow Bill says:

    I think VENOM looks fun. Hardy is always entertaining. I’d be really surprised if it’s just not a fun time. AQUAMAN, I’m not so sure. At worst it looks charmingly goofy. I’m not sure Wan has the light touch to make it work. But the goofiness kinda has me. I’ll see it unless it’s completely awful.

  37. amblinman says:

    What is the point I’m missing about Venom? It looks like a shitty movie based on a shitty character whose entire existence – a Spidey evil doppleganger – won’t even be touched on in the movie because there’s no Spider-Man.

    Aquaman actually looks fun to me, and like an actual movie. Venom looks like a crappy 90’s superhero movie, like Spawn.

    Gee, two shitty Todd Mcfarlane characters that will make shitty movies characters.

  38. palmtree says:

    I guess I have more faith in Wan. I’m not a horror fan, but I do know that horror directors end up with the chops to tackle other genres including action which Wan did successfully in Furious 7, still the highest grossing entry in the series by a big margin.

    Of course, you could say Furious 7 was a hit because of the outpouring for Paul Walker’s death, but the way Wan handled it was sensitive and touching, again pretty remarkable considering the genre it’s coming from.

  39. Sideshow Bill says:

    I forgot Wan did F&F. I’m not a fan of those movies at all but I guess you have to have a sense of fun to pull them off.

  40. GdB says:

    I finally caught Avengers at home. I always meant to catch it in theater and am bummed it never happened now that I’ve seen it. I read through the spoiler thread that was on here when it opened. I was suprised to see some say the Russo’s or movie had no real style visually. And it made me wonder, is that being based on how they’re moving the camera and blocking the scene? Because in terms of Mise en scene or just going by what’s in the frame at any given time that film has style in spades.

    I think the film deserves a lot of credit for just starting the plot expecting the audience to know the previous film history and there was not one moment that was a flashback/catch up.

    While watching it, I couldn’t help but think of the Gunn debacle. I maintain no matter how well executed this franchise is, if Disney doesn’t rehire Gunn and the Geeks see them capitulate to bigots, they can expect an even bigger boycott of GoG 3 than they got for Solo.

    And the Geeks don’t forget. The whole franchise/IP will have a tarnish that will be improbably hard to remove if they don’t rehire Gunn.

    I know as much as I liked IW, I’m ready to never see a Marvel movie again in the theaters and wait for cable. If they make it exclusive to their streaming site, oh well. I’ve got the comics. I don’t give $$ to companies that fire good people to capitulate to bigots.

  41. JS Partisan says:

    GdB, I am right there with you. The nazis should never ever win, and it’s not like these assholes are even movie fans. They are just a bunch of insane people, who believe in crazy conspiracy theories, and Iger and Horn letting crazy people win is just bad form.

    The fact that Iger and Horn seemingly made this decision without contacting Feige is insane. It’s absolutely fucking insane. Feige is their best producer, their best studio head, and the man responsible for making Disney what it is right now than anyone else. It’s not Pixar. It’s not fucking Star Wars. It’s Marvel Studios, and this is how they repay him? Firing the guy, who Feige has stated is important to the next bunch of films is just… it’s dumb.

    If I were Feige, who should be able to start negotiating his next contract. I’d fucking leave, and go to Warners. If you aren’t even in on the call for your division, a call that leads to a decision that threatens your division, that’s carrying the entire fucking movie division. Well. You’re seen as an employee, and not as important as you should be.

    Feige got free of Ike, but he couldn’t get free of Old Alan and Conceited Bob.

  42. arisp says:

    ^^ Once a year you say something smart and articulate. Agree!

  43. JS Partisan says:

    Arisp, there’s no need to be a dick about it :P!

  44. Pete B says:

    I think Movie Pass is determined to piss off all its customer base. I can deal with increasing the membership fee. I can handle waiting to see “Premium Content” movies til later in their run. (No Fallout last weekend or Christopher Robin this weekend.) But now they’re limiting when you can see movies? WTF? Tried to go to an early 11am show and Movie Pass won’t let you see anything before 4pm. (Earliest available was 3:50pm.) That sucks. Especially for those of us who work 3rds. Stubs A-List is looking better & better.

  45. Bulldog68 says:

    Methinks some creative accounting is at work. BP’s daily number jumped by over 3000% overnight. Went from $400 to $12k. Not seeing that they added screens. $700m here we come.
    It’s actually funny what studios do to reach a milestone.

  46. Hcat says:

    Right? It all of a sudden had a per screen average higher than all the top ten save for Mission? They must have just attributed the Christopher Robin preview money toward Wakanda.

  47. palmtree says:

    Bragging rights are a helluva drug!

  48. movieman says:

    Reasons to be cheerful this weekend:

    Jesica Lange returns to “AHS” this season!
    There’s going to be a new season of “Fargo”…and Chris Rock is starring!
    Ava DuVernay is directing a Central Park Five miniseries! (Yeah, it’s for Netflix, but that’s still great news.)
    As if Carrie Coon starring in the new season of “The Sinner” wasn’t groovy enough, Coon’s hubby Tracy Letts costars!

  49. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s nice movieman.

    I just got out of Dinesh D’Souza’s DEATH OF A NATION, which valiantly attempts to be the most racist mainstream release since BIRTH OF A NATION (It falls short, but appears to be the most racist wide release since the Sixties) by equating chattel slavery with clean drinking water regulations, and human genocide with corporate tax rate structures. It’s been well received as a comparison of our best president, Donald Trump, with our 2nd best president, Abraham Lincoln. Highest CinemaScore of the week!

    I’m re-considering the Neil DeGrasse Tyson/Elon Musk belief that we’re all living in a weird computer simulation

  50. movieman says:

    You’re a stronger man than me, Ethan.

    I can’t even imagine how creepy it would be to sit in a theater populated by MAGA Deplorables that’s showing one of Dinesh D’Souza’s vile hate screeds.

    Full disclosure: I saw D’Souza’s previous “films” on DVD–thanks, Netflix–if only to help fill out my 10-worst list(s). Will surely do the same w/ “Nation” which I’m guessing will be out prior to the November elections.
    So happy to see it laying an egg at the b.o.

  51. Pete B says:

    “…by equating chattel slavery with clean drinking water regulations, and human genocide with corporate tax rate structures.”

    Maybe I dozed off during Death of a Nation, which is a distinct possibility, but I have no idea what you’re talking about here.

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