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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by JW2,2

Weekend Estimates 2018-07-01 at 11.38.52 AM

86 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by JW2,2”

  1. Jspartisan says:

    So we were zipping along as a blog… Finally. Thanks for stopping that, Dace \ (•◡•) /! I kid, but we are still here. Please. People. Post. I’m hoping you’re all on vacation.

    So… Universal really fumbled SDM pt 2, that’s aka Fallen Kingdom. It’s going to make 1.1bn, but they should have pushed it more. Those movies are obviously big events, and Universal seemingly have no idea how to make their event movies seem like events.

    I will state this: Episode IX will be lucky to make Fallen Kingdom money. I’m sure that will be spun as a win (after Solo), but Star Wars will be lucky to stay on pace with the Jurassic World movies.

    The Incredibles 2 isn’t doing great abroad. While Ant-Man and the Wasp is apparently not opening all that high. Which I doubt, but it’s another fun mid Summer movie season. Wooooooooooo!

  2. Geoff says:

    Yeah I hope this blog keeps going though I know I could participate more myself.

    I don’t know if Universal really fumbled Jurassic Kingdom or whatever it’s called….they SOLD Pratt, they sold the dinosaurs, what else were they going to sell?

    And even though Solo tanked WAY hard than I could have predicted, I can’t see Episode IX falling THAT far, I just can’t….there’s still a baseline for these movies and you know that the mass entertainment media is going to rally behind this movie – they’ll have JJ out in force, Ridley out in force, I would be highly shocked if they can’t finagle Lucas and Hamill to do more press this time around…and they’ll have special advance “fan screenings” – Disney/Lucasfilm was just here three years ago with the year-long hype for The Force Awakens when they had to push HARD against perceptions and they don’t fuck around! 😉 I don’t see it going much higher than The Last Jedi but who knows?

    Incredibles 2 is doing fine, it will just clear a billion and I HAD assumed until recently that Ant-Man & the Wasp was a surefire billion dollar grosser as well.

    Nice to see Ocean’s 8 hanging in there – I liked it, didn’t love it. Also finally saw ‘Infinity War last week and JS, you’ll be surprised to know that it was better than I expected – WAY better than ‘Civil War at the very least. Did I buy into the emotion of the ending? Not really but I would be lying if I didn’t find every single scene entertaining – I wish they had gotten better directors than the Russos to try to pull this thing together as visually and pacing-wise, it was barely competent. But…..it was never dull, I’ll give it that.

  3. Glamourboy says:

    I’m curious..there were a load of films playing at my local arthouse that I had never heard of…An Ideal Home, Hearts Beat Loud, Boundaries…..they all seem like nice movies….but how do these movies get made? Week after week there are new indie films that open and make $20,000….or $40,000 a week and struggle to stay on their screens….and you know that their budgets must have been high enough that they will never recoup. Plus, the films that get into these theaters are the lucky ones…there’s plenty that never even get a small theatrical. How does the current indie film market work?

  4. Glamourboy says:

    Also, would Book Club be considered a ‘win’ at 65 million?

  5. Chucky says:

    Book Club underperformed because of the dumbed-down-for-Murica marketing. Boundaries tanked for the same reason. Hearts Beat Loud was one-and-done in Greater New York megaplexes.

    The box office top 10 may include a documentary and a Bollywood title, but that doesn’t mean the industry is in rude health.

  6. movieman says:

    At an estimated $10-million budget, “Book Club” has to be considered a win for Paramount w/ a $65-million-plus domestic gross.
    Not a “Quiet Place” win, but a win nonetheless.

  7. Stella's Boy says:

    Isn’t JW2 performing more like the first one was expected to? I thought JW did way better than anyone was predicting. Sometimes I feel so lost when it comes to assessing what’s a good opening vs. solid but disappointing vs. disappointing vs. weak.

    Rich people fund a lot of indies don’t they? And many of them do well on VOD right? And there’s still the cache of getting into festivals. Plus many of them are pretty cheap to make relatively speaking. For example Hearts Beat Loud cost $2 million.

  8. Stella's Boy says:

    Book Club seems like successful counter-programming. One box office prognosticator (The Numbers) estimated its box office potential to be $30 million total. More than doubling that is pretty damn good. Breaking In also seems like a quiet success at more than $46 million against a $6 million budget.

  9. hcat says:

    Saw Fallen Kingdom, was quite impressed even though the whole kid thing seemed out of place, and the end of course felt a little odd. Like if in Old Yeller they didn’t have the heart to shoot the dog and then he takes out the mother.

    Book Club is a big win, will clean up on video as well and will play around the clock on Lifetime two summers from now.

    Star Wars will continue to shrink. I see some parallels to the Fifty Shades of Grey films (and not just in the amount of in theater masturbation that occurs). The first one sells a massive amount of tickets based on fan base anticipation and non fan curiosity, and then interest fades when it is not the biggest topic of media conversation.

    Curious where Ant-Man lands, there is a hundred million dollar gap between Solo and Deadpool, the gulf between hit and blockbuster, and that seems to be real estate that Ant Man, MI, and Skyscraper are aiming for. Not sure if they can generate the enthusiasm to get there.

  10. BO Sock Puppet says:

    Excellent hold for SOLO. $210m seems within reach.

  11. hcat says:

    “Breaking In also seems like a quiet success at more than $46 million against a $6 million budget.”

    Universal has had a few of those this year, Truth or Dare, Blockers, Breaking in, Insidious, all inexpensive but strong performers. They only thing they might have lost money on this calendar year was Pacific Rim and I think that was fully paid for by the Legendary side.

    Now I don’t know all the intricacies of the math and am skeptical about reported budgets but from what I can tell, all the studios appear to be in the black so far this year. Paramount took two shots to the groin with Annihilation and Action Park but Quiet Place more than made up for their shortfalls. Peter Rabbit more than covered for Proud Mary and Superfly for Sony, and Warners has stayed above water even if Rampage and Ready Player One didn’t explode like they had hoped.

    As for Hearts Beat Loud, I have been hearing about this for the past month, feel good indie for the NPR crowd. Even if it didn’t do well in theaters (and its performing fine), it will grab some VOD cash since it has decent reviews and a recognizable face on the poster. It is also released by Gunpowder and Sky which is owned by Otter which is owned by ATT. So there is a decent amount of cash from new tiny studios trolling around the bottom ranks looking for films to breakout or build a catalog of. As long as they are not bleeding millions annually there is an opportunity to secure content and build a brand. A24’s success could not be unnoticed, I am sure there are plenty of wannabe moguls that want to build the next model of that.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    Good point those four grossed over $210 million domestically and only cost $40 million combined. Not too shabby.

    Boxoffice.com predicts a $70-$90 million opening for Ant-Man & Wasp. That would be a nice bump up from the first one.

  13. Night Owl says:

    I always figured the Jurassic series would follow the Transformers path: increasingly involved and silly “mythology”, followed by diminishing domestic returns buoyed by international love of empty spectacle, until international gets bored of the empty spectacle too and they reboot again.

    I was in the Episode 9 camp will see a “last movie” increase, but the more I think about it I expect a drop. No not a bomb, a drop. For one, Asia (with the exception of Japan) is done with Star Wars. Also all the “last” movies in a series I can think of that went up in gross followed a cliffhanger or hook in that the story was truly ending (Return of the King, Deathly Hallows 2, Revenge of the Sith, etc.). Last Jedi’s ending just kind of…sits there. It feels like an attempt to start a new series, not push forward a trilogy. What am I supposed to be anticipating? A plucky group of rebels fights a battle against the Emp..err..First Order and their dark lord with the help of one lone Jedi? I, ummm, already saw that movie.

    So after Ridley’s slip that she’s done after Episode 9 (which I assume means the others are too) do they admit that and try for a “final journey” hook? JJ “SECRETS!!!” Abrams would hate that.

  14. Bulldog68 says:

    JS, Pixar moves roll out slowly internationally so Incredibles still has lots of markets to open in.

  15. palmtree says:

    Ocean’s 8 is having a great hold. Would love to see it eclipse Ready Player One as WB’s highest grosser thus far this year.

    JW2 was a terribly stupid movie, but it had so many fun money-shot type moments that it at least provides what you expect from a summer movie, and Chris Pratt reasonably carries it. It just had so much more potential than to be Dinosaur Transformers.

  16. movieman says:

    NEON desperately wants to be the next A24.
    They’ve released some interesting films, but nothing has quite broken out yet.
    Of course, A24 wasn’t “A24″ until…”The Witch”? “Moonlight”?

  17. hcat says:

    I would be shocked if Incredibles does not cross the billion dollar mark WW. It should inch past the Fish to be #1 across the board for Pixar.

  18. Joshua K. says:

    @Chucky: What’s this about Book Club’s marketing being dumbed down for “Murica”? It’s an American movie; Paramount didn’t have any pre-existing marketing materials from other countries that it had to redo for the USA.

  19. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Internationally, Fallen Kingdom is running closer to Jurassic World than Lost World did to the original. Domestically,it looks to finish slightly further away to J-World than Lost World did to J-Park. So on the whole, it’s on par at least. Basically it’s this year’s Fate of the Furious.

    Anyway, since this is a de facto BYOB, who else is in the mood for a 2018 Top Ten so far at the halfway point? I’d go:

    1. A Quiet Place
    2. Hereditary
    3. Solo
    4. Isle of Dogs
    5. Black Panther
    6. The Mercy
    7. Game Night
    8. Ready Player One
    9. Kodachrome
    10. Incredibles 2

  20. hcat says:

    looks like someone hasn’t seen Paddington yet……

  21. YancySkancy says:

    No new content on the home page for a couple of days; not a good sign, I reckon.

  22. Triple Option says:

    Does anyone really believe Book Club was made for $10M?

  23. Stella's Boy says:

    Yes I believe it: https://www.glamour.com/story/book-club-movie

    I noticed that too Yancy. Very unfortunate.

  24. Stella's Boy says:

    I’ve seen many mid-year best-of lists, which just reminds me of how many of this year’s movies I haven’t seen. The list of what I haven’t seen is much longer (First Reformed, Hereditary, The Death of Stalin, Revenge, Unsane, Gemini, The Rider, Tully, RBG, Game Night, Incredibles 2, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, Leave No Trace, and more). Sigh. Anyway, in no order:

    1. Annihilation
    2. You Were Never Really Here
    3. Upgrade
    4. Den of Thieves
    5. Black Panther
    6. Paddington 2
    7. The Ritual
    8. The Endless
    9. Mohawk
    10. Pyewacket

    Most overrated: A Quiet Place

  25. Bulldog68 says:

    What I slow moviegoing year for me. Can’t do a top 19 because I’ve seen only two 2018 movies thus far. Sigh. Remove all the external drama from Solo and it was fun taken on its own. Deadpool was the biggest laugh, Panther was just gloriously beautiful fun that felt unlike anything else that came before it. Didn’t see A Quiet Place yet.

  26. GdB says:

    What sucks is MCN has been updated in days either. I was hoping it was just THB shutting down, but it seems to be the whole operation. I hope I’m wrong on that.

  27. palmtree says:

    I too haven’t seen a ton of movies this year, but the two so far that are essential viewing, that have stayed with me long afterwards, and that are important for our particular moment are:

    Won’t You Be My Neighbor
    Black Panther

  28. YancySkancy says:

    GdB: MCN homepage is what I was referring to.

    I can’t make a list either. Like Bulldog, I’ve seen exactly two 2018 films in theaters: Black Panther and Deadpool 2. I did like the rom-com Set It Up on Netflix, and The Tale on HBO is strong stuff.

  29. GdB says:

    Yancy: Read you.

    Wally: You put Solo higher than BP? Wow. Maybe I do have to see it.

    Solo may be good fun on its own, but I sincerely ask without seeing it. Does it raise the culutural capital of the character from Ford’s presence or diminsih it? Basically what the subtext I keep hearing is, Solo is a great space heist movie, or a great sci-fi/space fantasy film if it wasn’t Star Wars.

    But does that movie really elevate one of the greatest cinematic heroes ever created? JS, I know you’re gonna weigh in, but I think its safe to say we all know you’re going to say yes. And while I normally have your take on SW, I’m not sure I can agree with the notion that this movie elevates the character’s cultutural capital and not diminish it.

  30. Monco says:

    For me the only two movies that have left any sort of impression on me this year are Isle of Dogs and Annihilation. But it has also been a relatively slow year for me as well. A Quiet Place being most overrated was a great call Stella. Hereditary is a close second. Considering how bad of a summer it has been I’d pay a lot to be able to see You Were Never Really Here in a theater right now. I missed it during its run and it is a great regret.

  31. Pete B says:

    Solo was the movie I’ve enjoyed most so far this summer. Having said that, the worst part of Solo is Alden Ehrenreich. It’s not that he gives a bad performance, he’s just NOT Han Solo. Someone on another site said he’s Jack Burton from Big Trouble in Little China, and that description fits. So as for the “cultural capital”? I can’t say he improved it as he just isn’t Han.

  32. Stella's Boy says:

    Game Night would probably crack my top 10 at this point. Stellar cast, lots of solid laughs, very easy to watch. McAdams is just a delight, and what great roles for Landry and Coach Taylor. Red Sparrow is pretty awful. Way too long and dull. Great cast but shitty movie. Hurricane Heist is dumb fun. Good summer viewing. Lots of Redbox in the last week.

  33. movieman says:

    Can we talk guilty pleasures?
    I concur w/ SB about “Hurricane Heist.” Totally indefensible, but yes, “dumb fun.”
    And two “Christian” movies I can’t believe I enjoyed since I’m a heathen Libtard: “Forever My Girl” and “I Can Only Imagine.”
    Plus, the benignly idiotic “Super Troopers 2″ and surprisingly effective “Strangers Prey at Night.”
    Most underrated?
    Aardman’s “Early Man,” “How to Talk to Girls at Parties” and “Den of Thieves.”
    The worst? Easy.
    “Pacific Rim Uprising,” “Midnight Sun,” “Fifty Shades Freed” and “A Wrinkle in Time.”

  34. hcat says:

    Enjoyed Sparrow a little more than you did, but still not in the like column. You could see the movie Lawrence wanted to make but just couldn’t put the pieces together. The same thing happened with Water for Elephants, pretty to look at and he knows how to frame a shot but just can’t get an emotional undercurrent going to create the melodramatic tension he is aiming for.

    And I will join in the chorus in singing Black Panthers praises. I have never been that impressed with Marvels output, even Guardians and Ragnarok left me cold. But Panther deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the greats like Raiders and Casino Royale. I will have to see it a few more times but personally it will probably slip past Open Range to take the title of best movie Disney ever made.

    Movieman, am almost willing to check out Forever My Girl just because Rothe was a hell of a lot of fun in Happy Death Day. Is she given even a tenth of an opportunity to shine in Girl?

  35. Stella's Boy says:

    I am also a big fan of Strangers: Prey at Night. I prefer it to the original, which is just France’s Them but not nearly as good. The sequel is highly effective. It creeped me out. The pool scene is a highlight. Den of Thieves is so much better than it has any right to be. Great Heat ripoff. Sparrow has a few good moments and the cast keeps it watchable, but yeah it does not come together. And the midsection had me checking my watch.

  36. movieman says:

    Rothe is lovely in “Girl,” Hcat.
    I didn’t even recognize her from “Happy Death Day” while watching it.
    She evinces a nice range which bodes well for her future.

    Agree (again) w/ SB; this time about “Strangers Prey.”
    The pool scene is a minor classic. And for a movie shot almost entirely at, duh, night it never suffers from digital-murk like so many movies today. The images remain clear and crisp throughout.

  37. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’ve seen a decent amount of movies this year. Still some holes to fill. FIRST REFORMED being the biggest. Odd, because I’m an atheist but I fin faith and explorations of faith extremely compelling, and sometimes very moving. Plus, it’s Paul Schrader.

    ANNIHILATION
    HEREDITARY
    YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE
    THE ENDLESS
    ISLE OF DOGS
    DEADPOOL 2
    BLACK PANTHER
    AVENGER INFINITY WAR
    READY PLAYER ONE
    A QUIET PLACE.

    I’ve also seen SOLO and RAMPAGE and both were surprisingly enjoyable though slight.

    STRANGER 2 was OK. I remember being meh about it but maybe I should watch it again. Pool scene was great.

    INSIDIOUS 4 I saw but didn’t care for.

    Seeing THE PURGE tonight because I’m a sucker for that series.

  38. movieman says:

    I adore “Isle of Dogs” and everything/anything Wes Anderson, but I think my personal favorite(s) of the year so far are two boy-and-his-horse movies: “The Rider” and “Lean on Pete.”
    Both are masterpieces of empathy and deserved to find much larger audiences.

    “Pete” hits home video next week; “The Rider” on August 7th.

  39. Glamourboy says:

    Feeling very sad to click onto this site again today and find the front page exactly the same. Does anyone know what is going to happen? Are we just going to click onto here and find a 404 at some point? If so I am going to miss it, and you all very much.

  40. Stella's Boy says:

    I second your concern and sentiment Glamourboy.

  41. Sideshow Bill says:

    Same here. I like this forum. Maybe we should create a MCN memorial forum that we can post in. Or move on with our lives. But I’m not good at that.

  42. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS, not to beat a dead horse, but INCREDIBLES 2 is running about $100 million ahead of FINDING DORY worldwide with a very, very similar release pattern, which means $1.1 billion is very much in play. That would put it at #3 among animated releases worldwide (#1 domestic is guaranteed), behind only FROZEN and, frustratingly, MINIONS. Catching MINIONS (and Captain America: Civil War among Superhero movies) might still be in the cards as well.

  43. Hcat says:

    Does Leydon’s blog support comments? In case of fire or flood or disconnection should we regroup there? I really don’t want to venture (shudder) elsewhere.

  44. Sideshow Bill says:

    Wow. It’s as subtle as 50 bricks through 50 windows but THE FIRST PURGE is fucking awesome. Mixing it up with with an almost all Black cast, some blaxploitation tropes and actually addressing some ideas, at least enough to set things up, made for a rousing action movie. I left the theater wanting to go punch Nazis and KKK members. I was pumped. The violence, especially early on, had more weight to it. The last half-hour was as much fun as I’ve had in a theater in months.

    Also, saw the HALLOWEEN trailer on the big screen for the first time. It played great. People were clapping. I trust DGG to deliver this fucker.

  45. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’d support Joe Leydon’s forum if he has one. I had never thought of that.

  46. Glamourboy says:

    Sideshow Bill: I’ve never seen a Purge movie and I’m not really into films that are very violent. That being said, with MoviePass I could see it without spending any money….do you need to know the story of the first films….and if you are not into senseless violence, should you stay away?

  47. Glamourboy says:

    Speaking of Elsewhere….just wondering, how did JW ever survive that whole debacle of asking a director for nude photos of an actress from the set of his movie? Wouldn’t he be tarred and feathered in today’s climate?

    https://deadline.com/2007/09/creepiest-email-from-a-blogger-to-hollywood-3216/

  48. JS Partisan says:

    Oh. It shows how quick things changed, because that would be a shit storm today.

    Ethan and BD, I know, but China. Could be proven wrong, but the Incredibles 2 feels like a Star Wars movie to me. Big regionally, but sorta okay internationally. Again, I’ll admit to being completely wrong. If the time comes.

    Geoff, they can do all they want to save Star Wars. It’s not opening bigger than Frozen 2, and I feel it will be lucky to make 1.1 billion. The holidays will help, but LFL and Disney have done a great job of destroying the audience. It’s the height of irony, that the first line of the sequels is, “This will start to make things right.” Little did they know.

    FINALLY AND IN CAPS SO IT IS SEEN. THE BLOG SHOULD BE FINE, BECAUSE IT’S NOT HOSTED (Hopefully) ON MCN SERVERS. There may be a fee for the URL, but that could be a part of WordPress or whatever. I hope it doesn’t disappear, but who knows? Happy Fourth, everybody!

    I forgot to respond to GdB. No, that’s Luke Skywalker, and they already fucked that shit up ʘ‿ʘ! The thing about Solo is… It feels like George, and that’s probably thanks to the Kasdans. It’s the most Star Wars movie produced, by the haters running LFL. It’s just that fun and entertaining, that it sucks it had to come so soon after the TLJ shit show.

  49. Bulldog says:

    That’s a pretty strong 39% spike in the daily numbers for JW. The largest in the top 10. Maybe bodes well for the weekend, even with Ant Man waiting in the wings. However the performance by The Incredibles is just well….incredible. It could possibly gross more than JW this weekend.

    All in all, looks like this will be a great weekend for admissions. Maybe Ant-Man might not go gonzo $150M opening, but 4 or 5 strong movies at the box office should provide something for everyone.

  50. Pete B says:

    Glamourboy, the Purge movies are mostly senseless violence. All you need to know going in is that for 12 hours on the day of the Purge all crime is legal.

    Never saw the 1st, so I can’t comment on it, but for me the series highpoint was #2 (Anarchy). #3 (Election Year) tied into the 2nd one with Frank Grillo’s continuing character, so you’d need to see those two in order.

    As for #4? I wish I could share Bill’s enthusiasm, but it did nothing for me. Pretty hamfisted. Still, you could see it without having seen the others if you’re curious. Since it’s a prequel, everything is new.

  51. Sideshow Bill says:

    Yea, FIRST PURGE pressed all the right buttons with me, for that kind of film. It drew me in and enjoyed it. Does that make it good or “awesome “ as I proclaimed. No. But series hits my exploitation G spot ( gross!)

  52. GdB says:

    So what’s a good movie aggregate site now that MCN is done? I really appreciated not having to go all over the web to find the latest.

    I still say there was an easy, easy fix for Solo making it a hit from the flop it is. Which is; make the exact same movie they made, but take a page from Shonen/Seinen anime and make Solo 15yrs old in the movie instead of 25. That way we can believe the character ages into Ford, and to see the high, adult level, stakes pulled off by a kid hustler would’ve just added to the character’s mystique and exemplified why he could keep up with the Jedi. Hire an 18yr old to play 15 so you can shoot full days and done.

    Easy, easy fix. Can’t believe no one thought of it.

  53. Bulldog68 says:

    A pre pubescent Darth Vader didn’t work out so well though. I would’ve kept Solo at Christmas. The train heist could’ve been the new Polar Express, SciFi edition. 6 months after Jedi was way too soon in my book.

  54. GdB says:

    But 15 isn’t prepubescent! That’s like right in the middle of puberty. Again, take a page from Shonen anime. Naruto (Shippuden), YuYu Hakashow, Ichigo from Bleach, Asta from Black Clover, I could go on and on. I’m talking right at the cusp of young adulthood. No other way is anyone going to buy that the recast Solo will age into Ford unless they give ample room to do it.

    Even everyone that’s liked Solo said Alden was the biggest incongruent factor in the piece, and no one is saying its due to his performance, but the dude just doesn’t have the “presence” of Ford. That X factor in a legit all time movie star that can’t be recast.

    The best analogy I read was that AE’s Solo is more like Jack Burton from Big Trouble in Little China than Ford’s Solo. Which sounds like an awesome SW movie if it wasn’t about one of cinema’s most beloved made for the screen characters.

  55. GdB says:

    Forgot to say;

    JS, I’m feeling you on the notion that Solo has the most feel of the OT of all the new Disney films. Something I know Howard was going for. And say what you want of him as a Director; but for someone that was going to, and intended to, do the filmmaking equivalent of doing a cover song from a popular band and imitiating it so well that it’s almost indistinguishable from the original band – I can think of no one better than Ron Howard to do it.

    That alone makes want to see it. If I don’t catch it in theaters I’m most likely going to buy it on home video for its 4K eye candy.

  56. GdB says:

    Bulldog, l do agree about a Christmas release. It would’ve been interesting. Plus, if it was released then and still did the same numbers then that it’s done now, there would be less doubt if those numbers are TLJ backlash or franchise fatigue.

    Great idea on the Sci-Fi polar express.

  57. Hcat says:

    The Purge was not great, But I have problems with Hawke. It ran out of steam and every time someone was about to be killed the assailant was immediately shot by someone offscreen. I feel like that happened like five times. But I would suggest the sequels, there is a lot going on besides the violence. They do not pull punches on the whole institutional white supremacy dialogue they are chasing which is suprising for a studio film.

    The Purges and Get Out are probably the most Gonzo films to carry the Universal logo since they stopped releasing Alex Cox’s stuff.

  58. Noah Forrest says:

    this blog be OVA

  59. palmtree says:

    It’s ain’t over till it’s over.

    If we don’t see Friday numbers or weekend numbers…then we’ll know.

  60. palmtree says:

    Also, I don’t think people predicted this…but it seems Incredibles 2 will overtake Jurassic World this weekend. That’s pretty, well, incredible, and probably a testament to how crappy JW was.

  61. Bulldog68 says:

    Hey Palmtree, I predicted it on July 4th. Just scroll buddy. But I would disagree that it is due to a crappy JW, which is performing about as well as most predicted the first one would. JW will probably get to $400m domestic and $1.2b international, and without the benefit of 14 years of pent up nostalgia. That’s a win.

  62. palmtree says:

    BD, Congrats on the prediction! Even Mojo got this one wrong.

    But also, JW was spectacularly awful, and Incredibles 2 is darn good. Just look at the Rotten Tomatoes scores. Critics and audiences agree on both movies quite decisively.

    If JW were just a little bit more family friendly and less of a dumpster fire of incompetence, I think it’d be putting up stronger numbers, even against the mighty Incredibles.

  63. Glamourboy says:

    yep, no weekend numbers so the fat lady is singing…

    FWIW, I found Ant Man to be loads of fun…I only went to see it to escape the 107 degree heat…but the movie was terrific.

    I also saw the indie film, Ideal Home and Paul Rudd–he is a terrific actor when you give him something to do.

  64. movieman says:

    Am I the only one who doesn’t think “Incredibles 2″ is….well, all that?
    Yeah, it’s f-i-n-e, I suppose, but super hero (and ‘toon) overdose in the past 14 years definitely took their toll.
    With me anyway. And did it really need to be 118 minutes? I grew impatient around the 90-minute mark.
    I truly don’t get why it’s performing more like a James Cameron movie, (non”Solo”) “Star Wars” or top-tier Marvel than a pretty standard-issue Pixar sequel.

  65. Bulldog68 says:

    I really liked Incredibles 2 but my nitpick was what I thought was too easy a villain to defeat. And I wanted more Edna dahling.

  66. leahnz says:

    this ignominious end to the hotblog seems weirdly passive-aggressive…
    why not just hand the page over to a moderator who’ll continue to post, given the blog itself isn’t a money-spinner (is it?). the demise of the MCN main page – and the twitter feed, which was also cool to read – is depressing enough amongst so much bummerage

  67. Jspartisan says:

    Well. It’s still here, but we are community of almost 15 years. You don’t just flush us down the shitter. Seeing as Ray is probably looking for a new job. Give posting duties to Ethan, Palm, or even me. It’s just stupid to not let us keep going, and rude.

  68. Sideshow Bill says:

    My girlfriend dumped me in May. Now MCN is dumping me. WHY AM I SO UNDESIRABLE?

  69. Pete B says:

    As Bogie said “We’ll always have Paris.”
    Bill, we’ll always have The VVitch.

  70. palmtree says:

    movieman, I’m actually not a fan of either Incredibles 1 or 2. But I think their flaw is thematic in nature…execution-wise they are really good. I just don’t like the values that they stand for.

    JS, DP could throw us a bone for all the years we’ve spent here. But as long as we still have this thread, it still ain’t over…We’re like the string quartet on the Titanic, it’s an honor.

  71. Joshua K. says:

    Does anyone know of an alternative site to go to that will have the weekend box office updates like this one does?

  72. Glamourboy says:

    Usually summer movies, for me, are disposable and dumb…but this year they have been fun…still disposable fun..but at least well-made, mindless fun I don’t think The Incredibles is more than that. I enjoyed it while I was watching it but not I can’t, for the life of me, remember a moment of it.

  73. Jspartisan says:

    Movie, I agree in totality. Let’s Television Without Pity, this motherfucker. What does that mean? Having one thread with a ridiculous high post count. If it keeps this alive, then it keeps it alive.

    Also, I was going to slam Ant-Man and the Wasp’s opening, but the other three movies below it out grossed it. Which means, that there were only so many customers to go around. Now? A Marvel Studios movie needs positive word of mouth. It’s not like they need Ant-Man and the Wasp to make more than what? Six or Seven hundred million? It will be fine, like Kenny and Cody are fine.

  74. palmtree says:

    First we had RBG, then Won’t You Be My Neighbor…now Whitney.

    With the upcoming Michael Moore film set to come out, this is banner year for documentaries.

  75. movieman says:

    “Whitney” didn’t open w/ the sort of #s that recent grass roots phenoms (e.g., “RBG” and Mr. Rogers) did.
    Maybe it doesn’t engender the same warm-and-fuzzy vibes that helped catapult those movies into #Resistance talismans.
    Or maybe it’s simply because Nick Broomfield’s 2017 Showtime Whitney Houston doc got there first?
    But, yep. This is turning into a super year for doc b.o. hits, Palm. Wonder if Oscar will penalize them for being commercially successful. It’s certainly happened before.
    Does anyone know how wide Annapurna is taking “Sorry To Bother You” next weekend? I love Lakeith Stanfield and am dying to see it.

  76. Hcat says:

    If we are talking Docs that Three Identical Strangers is doing great numbers as well, At this rate it should land in the neighborhood as the Rodgers doc (ba dum dum).

    And that Sorry to Bother you number is bonkers good. I was wondering what might be this years Little Miss Sunshine/Big Sick type indie Barnburner. This certainly came off blocks like a contender.

    And 8 pased 12 and 13 this weekend. I didn’t love it but thought it was good enough to warrent another go, that cast was a complete dream.

    And while Fallen Kingdom won’t match the first installment it will still land at Uni’s #2 domestic slot.

  77. Hcat says:

    And if this is truly the end, I would like to serenade David off

    Night time sharpens, heightens each sensation
    Darkness wakes and stirs imagination
    Silently the senses abandon their defenses
    Helpless to resist the notes I write
    For I compose the music of the night
    Slowly, gently night unfurls it’s splendor
    Grasp it, sense it, tremulous and tender
    Hearing is believing, music is deceiving
    Hard as lightening, soft as candlelight
    Dare you trust the music of the night??????

    (sorry couldn’t resist one last time for the road)

  78. Jspartisan says:

    Again. It’s just a word press blog, or whatever. It’s not really over. It’s just not getting updated again. Which sucks.

  79. palmtree says:

    We could just update this thread and write what DP would have written.

    “Antman opens to $76 million. And it’s doing just fine. Zzzzz. The sky isn’t falling. Theatrical isn’t dead.”

  80. Lynch Van Sant says:

    Does anyone know how wide Annapurna is taking “Sorry To Bother You” next weekend?

    600-800 screens, according to Box Office Mojo.

  81. movieman says:

    Yikes. That means it definitely won’t be opening anywhere near me, Van Sant.
    Heck, we didn’t even get “Neighbor?” yet, despite its near 900-screen count.

  82. palmtree says:

    I’m also hoping I get to see Blindspotting at my local multiplex. Mojo indicates it’s expanding in a few weeks.

  83. Bulldog68 says:

    Looks like JW eked out a narrow moral victory in the actuals and topped Incredibles. I still think north of $400m is in the cards.

  84. palmtree says:

    LOL…”moral victory.”

  85. Bulldog68 says:

    I guess that should be “morale victory.” Hehehe. Didn’t think anyone expected that Incredibles would be putting the stomp on the dinosaurs quite this much that it’s not even a race. Almost every forecast I’ve seen had JW winning the month. As it stands Incredibles could beat JW by almost $200m domestically when all is said and done.

    Interesting also that all the comedies this year are settling into that little mid range sweet spot Not break out hits, but not failures either. The biggest “disappointment” may be Life of the Party because of it’s star but otherwise, I honestly didn’t expect Tag to make it to $50m.

    I still look at that WW number for Solo in disbelief. I know its convention to say that overseas markets don’t care about Star Wars, but $170m is a rejection. When Pacific Rim, Tomb Raider, Maze Runner can do north of $200m, you’d think that anything related to Star Wars in a major way could sneeze it’s way to that. Shame.

  86. palmtree says:

    Solo may be doing badly, but it achieved its own morale victory too. It surpassed Empire’s original $209m gross, so now Solo is no longer the lowest grossing Star Wars live action entry.

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