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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Underwhelmed But Unhysterical

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The vortex of Solo box office disappointment is hard to escape. Many of the theories being floated are surely true… but not in all-caps. As with so much these days, every fact is an excuse to spin one’s broader, and often irrelevant belief into a bigger picture.

My sense is that theatrical is not only healthy, but an increasingly critical piece of the financial puzzle for studios as we move into a post-theatrical world of endless content available on demand at all times for relatively small amounts of money via subscription (which will just be an expansive version of cable when we look back at it in 2030.)

Others—most media—are committed to the theatrical sky falling because of the tyranny of The New. So take it all in with thought and perspective.

I was right there at the beginning, going at the inevitability of Disney screwing up the Star Wars brand with too many films and not enough invention. So I should be celebrating the non-$100m opening. I am still vocal about the mistake they made firing Lord & Miller. I should be jumping on Solo’s grave. But I am not doing either. Because doing so is stupid and thoughtless.

Deadpool 2 is over $200m domestic in 10 days and about 15% behind the original phenom. Boo-hoo. They will only make a fortune instead of a fortune and a bit. Losers!

Maybe the media was too busy celebrating Netflix being overvalued to the point of insanity, carrying hhree years worth of gross earnings in debt, but still positioned by Wall Street to be the AOL of the era.

And again… I love Netflix. They are very, very smart. The value is glorious. They have been a force that benefits consumers from the start, whatever the actual disposition of Netflix. But the stock valuation is insane. And that is dangerous because at some point, it will cost a lot of jobs, likely starting with Fox.

Happy Memorial Day!

96 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Underwhelmed But Unhysterical”

  1. JS Partisan says:

    This is so damn sad, in box office movie terms.

  2. movieman says:

    Kind of remarkable that “Solo” probably won’t hit $200-million domestically.
    I don’t think anyone (esp. Disney execs) saw that coming.
    Maybe an Xmas (2018) release would have made more business sense?

  3. Amblinman says:

    Maybe people just don’t give a shit about a Han Solo movie starring a guy who looks and sounds nothing like Han Solo? Also, maybe it being the start of a series in which we already know the fate of the main character isn’t a huge draw? Was anyone really desperate to see how Han Solo became Han Solo? He was supposed to be enigmatic.

    And Glover is talented af but young Billy Dee Williams? C’mon.

  4. Dr Wally Rises says:

    I dunno. To me Solo plays more as a Summer movie in tone and pacing, like a Fast and the Furious heist flick in Star Wars clothing (that’s not intended as a criticism by the way). And it’ll hit $200 million domestic at least, the prognosis isn’t that bad. There’s nothing much new for the family audience until Incredibles three weeks from now, and weekdays tend.to be pretty strong throughout June.

    A little bit of perspective here before things get too hysterical. Solo is no different to, say Pirates 4&5, The Matrix Revolutions, Back to the Future 3, Jurassic Park 3, Transfomers 5 or whatever. There have now been more Star Wars movies in the past three years than there were in the preceding thirty. Tiredness in franchises does happen,it’s inevitable if not expected. And Solo is a better movie than any of those movies except for Back to the Future Part 3. No one can be thrilled with this opening, but it’s not the end of the world or this iteration of the franchise.

  5. Monco says:

    But Pirates is savaged mericilessly for underperforming. And Marvel can release 3 movies a year and get C level characters to 700 million. No this is fan disintertest in what Disney has made of this franchise. If you ruin the base storyline and destroy 40 years of history this is what you get. Episode IX is going to underperform as well.

  6. GdB says:

    That’s some excellent passive aggressive digs at us fans that didn’t respond to Solo for all the right reasons as stupid and thoughtless while admitting we’re right. Thanks?

    Exactly, Monco. Well said.

    ETA: I’m feeling some creeping frustration as most outlets are trying to blame this on SW fatigue and ignore that this is a very real backlash to TLJ and how they handled Luke and all the plot holes in that narrative.

    It’s not SW fatigue, it’s Star Wars mismanagement. Making origin stories about characters no one wanted after unceremoniously killing that beloved character like a bitch in his first cinematic appearance in 30yrs.

    To do that, and then go forward with this film with a give no fucks attitude about reverance for the material is how this opening came about. It has nothing to do with 5months in between.

    If that were the case, then the serials from the 30’s and 40’s these are based on, would’ve caused fatigue back in the day too, no?

    (Also note, nothing is being shouted in “all caps”. We’re all having a reasoned discussion here)

  7. JS Partisan says:

    Episode IX will not open as big as Frozen 2. It’s. Not. Gonna. Happen.

  8. Bulldog68 says:

    Unfortunately Solo seems like a movie of the week in the Star Wars universe. People are interested, but not to the level that lives up to the SW blockbuster stratosphere. It really does come across as just a Monet grab with nothing at stake. We know Han, Chewbacca and Lando live on, so what’s the point. Maybe Christmas would’ve been better.

  9. Geoff says:

    Yeah one moral of the story is that when you have over a year of negative stories coming out about your movie regarding reshoots and new directors taking over….and a large percentage of fans were VERY displeased with the previous installment……then it’s going to be VERY difficult to get any headway towards opening well or getting a fair shot from audiences and/or critics. Now which film am I talking about…..Justice League OR Solo?? :) Yeah both….franchising and/or building “shared” universes isn’t easy folks! And none of the folks behind these films (Snyder, Kennedy, Howard, Whedon, Tsujihara) are BAD people who should be lynched as a result either.

  10. movieman says:

    I feel bad for Alden Ehrenreich.
    He can’t seem to cut a break.
    Picked one of the few YA franchise-hopefuls (the perfectly decent “Beautiful Creatures”) that bombed.
    His shoulda-been star-making turns in “Tetro” and “Hail, Caesar” were largely unseen.
    And now he headlines the first “SW” entry to under-perform.
    Hope his career can withstand the slings and arrows being hurled his way. The complaint that he doesn’t look “enough” like a young Harrison Ford is patently absurd.
    Would those bitchers-and-moaners have preferred the dude who played the young Ford in “Age of Adaline”? He looked a LOT like the twenty-something Ford. Of course, I have no idea whether he can even act (don’t even remember if he had any dialogue: definitely don’t remember his name). But acting chops are apparently less important than a plasticine Madame Tousse replicant to some people.
    On the bright side: Armie Hammer didn’t get blackballed from the industry after “The Lone Ranger” tanked. Hopefully Ehrenreich will bounce back, too.

  11. Night Owl says:

    movieman I cannot imagine anyone would make the cast wear this. Obviously their days in Star Wars are done (probably without the bonuses and/or residuals they might have seen), and let’s not forget the coming onslaught of jokes on poor Emilie Clarke being a movie franchise killer (to be clear I’m not a fan, but neither were her fault) -but this is a failure at the higher levels. This has been in development from the beginning of the Disney era, and they allowed a budget of $250 million or whatever for a little heist movie?!?! That’s where the real story is. Alden has some friends, he will work. Just maybe not at the level he might have. Hell, Armie Hamer ended up a more interesting actor for it.

    I take none of the strange pleasure in this I’ve seen going around. I’m honestly stunned. I said somewhere a few months ago that people needed to check their expectations as this was not going to come near Rogue One’s $billion dollar plus for many reasons, but would still be a solid hit (I figured $700 million). I was wrong, I was so wrong. Domestic is weak but international is an absolute disaster. Period. If they want those overseas dollars they need to rethink this Boba Fett/Kenobi plan. Right. Now.

  12. Hcat says:

    Yeah, Book Club. Sixty domestic on a ten million budget all on star power. This is what Paramount should have been chasing for years.

  13. JS Partisan says:

    Solo isn’t a movie of the week. It’s the most Star Wars film they’ve ever made, and it gets the beating stick for a myriad of reasons. It is what it is, but treating it like a money grab… Ignores everything Doaney has done with Star Wars is a money grab. They had a shot, then pissed it away. Now? They have to rebuild.

    That aside. Welcome back, Geoff. No. This isn’t about them being bad people, but bad creatives and managers. It shouldn’t be personal, but totally business. Business wise? Oofah.

  14. GdB says:

    I think that there was a really really simple fix that would’ve/could’ve
    made this movie work:

    Lucasfilm could have/should have made the exact same movie but made Han 15yrs old the whole way throughout like a Shonen anime hero and then not only could we believe him aging into Ford to go with it, but seeing the character do such hardcore adult shit at a young age would only emulate why he’s special enough to keep up with the Skywalkers. Establish that he’s lived on his own in the Falcon since 15 with Chewie. Tell young Han stories but don’t go YA with them, go Shonen/Seinen anime style with him.

    That would’ve worked for anyone that felt Ford’s performance is sancrosanct and brought more seats to opening weekend.

  15. leahnz says:

    “has been in development from the beginning of the Disney era, and they allowed a budget of $250 million”

    please let this be hyperbole, holy shitballs
    (what is the est. budge for ‘solo’, i can’t seem to find it, too hush-hush because of all the production fuckarow? i’m not relishing a BO failure cuz i feel sorry for all the people who put their blood sweat and tears into trying to make a good movie but please, please, please let this tanking be a death knell for these ‘origin prequels’ — porigins? — because, is nothing sacred? we knew everything we needed to know about han via the snippets in the narrative arc that developed his character as a scoundrel pirate, and sometimes things like the kessel run are simply best left to the wonders of imagination ffs — OR, what they should have done if they absolutely could not refrain from porigins is: rather than try to cram in every little wink and nod to what we know about han’s character into one movie, they could adapt one of brian daley’s fast and nasty solo books into a clean, well-told self-contained story, modestly budgeted, and then if it did well at the BO there’s a trove of quite good stories there to adapt as a fun han serial if the appetite from the public is there)

  16. Night Owl says:

    leahnz, I hear you but believe it or not $250 million is the number going around. Both Variety and Exhibitor Relations put it there…before marketing costs. David on his twitter suggests $3-325 million. Long story short, first theatrical Star Wars money loser in….ever? That Clone Wars cartoon likely lost money, but it was cheap.

    I’d love to know what the actual green light budget was. How much of this is reshoots?…and while we are at it…what the hell were they thinking?

  17. Geoff says:

    Well thank you JS, I have just been insanely busy lately – haven’t even seen a new movie since The Death of Stalin amount a month and a half ago, it was great by the way.

    Yeah I was just referring to the nasty things I have heard folks say about Tsujihara the past few months and Kennedy. I’m not even sure how much of this was really Kennedy’s fault….yeah maybe she wanted to double-down on nostalgia but sorry, look up at her bosses over the past several years: they’ve tried to force-feed prequels to the Wizard of Oz, Sleeping Beauty, and Monsters Inc. She’s just been following company policy.

    I’m still gonna see Solo – I’m not gonna lie, the marketing has made it look WAY more appealing to me personally than any of the recent Star Wars movies as it looks like a fun space adventure….not some mystery box homework assignment that will only be fully understood by reading prequel novelizations and a series of tweets from the director after having viewed it at least at least four times.

    But I don’t think Kennedy should be fired, I just think they need to SLOW shit down…..Star Wars movies are NOT supposed to come out every year, they should be EVENTS like James Bond movies still try to be. There’s no valid reasoning for them to push Episode IX out next year….not when The Last Jedi and Solo are still fresh in people’s heads, give the fans some time to actually…..MISS these films again!

    Beyond that and I know that some EU fans might disagree, but the material was NEVER there to make this into a “shared universe” putting out one to two new entries every year. It’s not like Marvel or DC where you have six or seven decades of well-established characters and stories to pull from….and it’s not like Game of Thrones or Lord of the Rings where you have thousands of pages of independently authored DENSE mythology to pull from….at the end of the day, you basically have nine movies, 3 or 4 seasons of TV, and an “outline” mysteriously written by George Lucas 45 years ago that nobody has really seen except him.

    You could say the expanded universe but there’s a REASON that Disney tried to disassociate themselves from most of that in 2013….most of it was NOT good, most of it was glorified fan-fiction besides the Timothy Zahn stuff. There’s just not enough there to even attempt what Marvel has done or what DC has been trying to do – you don’t have a large stable of characters like Flash, Namor, Blade, Lobo, Captain Marvel, or Martian Manhunter resting in your back-pocket to pull out that fans could go ape-shit for if done right on some future date….you have Thrawn and maybe Mara Jade, that’s about it.

    They should release one every two to three years and keep it to that – the whole side story thing every other year was never going to work, not on the scale these films are expected to be. Not when you have to spend over $300 million on a supposed street-level young Solo origin story. Figure out what you want to do with Rey, Finn, Poe, and Kylo FIRST….fix the saga and go from there, take it one film at a time.

  18. Arisp says:

    KK is toast.

  19. GdB says:

    Well said, Geoff.

    That was always my initial trepidation to Disney buying the IP. That they would milk it to death so that it wasn’t special anymore.

    I did expect it to take a lot longer though. Wow!

    So we got 1 more Skywalker film about to go into Production; 2 more side movies centered on characters no one is clamoring for. A live action TV series from GoT guys, a live action series from Jon Favreau and a new animated series from Dave Filoni (which I’m psyched on the mentioned anime style of animation, I was hoping for a show that continued with the remaining Rebels characters. I assume they will pop up in this new show, but I want more than guest appearances with them)

    That is a lot of SW that is going to tank unless IX or another story retcons what they did to Luke. Check the comments on Indiewire and other places. These numbers are not about this movie almost at all.

    These numbers are a reckoning from fans over TLJ and being told we’re salty bigots because a small group of assholes keep shouting “SJW” enough to keep Disney in denial the same way Republicans are about Trump until hopefully the Nov election. Now the numbers are in and there’s no more denial. Or is there?

    Go ahead and make those Boba Fett and Obi Wan movies, space them out a year or two apart, and pretend this is all franchise fatigue and that you’ll get better numbers. I’ll wait.

  20. leahnz says:

    thx night owl, i’m gobsmacked by those figures

  21. Geoff says:

    There’s no way that Solo cost less than $300 million – whatever that $250 million figure being put out is, it’s the official figure NOT including 70% to 80% of reshoots….this is kind of unprecedented but World War Z went about by at least a third just for re-shooting the final act so yeah they’re looking around $325 million at minimum and they might not even get to $400 million worldwide. If your worldwide number barely exceeds your production budget on this scale, that puts this film in pretty rarified territory…Green Lantern, The Lone Ranger, Jupiter Ascending, and John Carter…

    How ironic that John Carter flopping was probably THE biggest driver for why Disney made this purchase and six years later, they found a way to release a Star Wars film that could end up losing as much money as John Carter.

  22. PJ says:

    This is the exact moment where hysterics are needed. They won’t turn a profit on this. It opened everywhere and only made 65M overseas. It’s dead, Jim. It will gross under 100M for the 4 days, worse than Justice League. And since we are the interconnected universe of franchises, this is going to hurt the next big star wars chapter whatever. All the belittling of those who had critiques for the earlier films is coming home to roost. No, it’s not online trolls spamming rotten tomatoes, it’s not upset fanboys that their beloved luke is gone, it’s not any other excuse we heard the last couple years. It’s is quite plainly the milquetoast factory filmmaking of disney run amok.

  23. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff, you nailed it with that John Carter reference. They really did it. They really came full circle, but this was always going to happen. They were too cocky, and too demeaning. Look at their Comic con footage. Where they all but told the Chinese audience and a lot of fans,”Prequels suck! Practical FX! Wooooooooooo!” Two billion gives you a reason to be cocky, but they were totally like a football team that gave up the lead. They did this, by trusting the 2nd string to hold the lead. Which we all know didn’t happen.

    I can just go on, but they succeeded in my eyes, with creating new characters. Where they failed is wasting them in stupid stories. They failed them, by not telling a familial story. Star Wars is about family. It’s not about the universe being small. It’s just about this family. Disney, ripped that out of the story, and thought giving us a hero without a last name was some profound statement. If anyone can be the hero, then why the fuck am I supposed to care about any of these characters?

    I can go on and on with how Disney has fumbled this property, and it’s all just such dumb shit. Such utterly dumb shit. KK should resign Tuesday, but these arrogant motherfuckers simply do not get they can fuck up like Warners, and they just did. They failed even worse.

  24. Joe Straatmann says:

    There’s a very simple answer here from a person who is not going to see it unless someone swings by with free tickets: They didn’t sell it very well. I don’t remember any moments from the trailer, any lines, any scenes where I came out wanting to see it. After the all caps EVENT movie Infinity Wars and Event movie Deadpool 2, Solo felt like an undercard. I get X-Men Apocalypse vibes from it that they just expected everyone to watch it and put the advertising on auto-pilot. They even came out two days apart in their respective years. The Star Wars label bumps the grosses up some tens of millions of dollars, though.

    For the record, Solo is probably decent enough like I thought Apocalypse was decent enough even as a slapped-together, rushed loaf of an X-Men movie (Though the recent revelations about Bryan Singer has pretty much soured me on one of my favorite, “I just want something to pop in and enjoy” franchises). It’s just not high on my priorities right now and nothing I’ve seen aside from Donald Glover ups it on my priorities.

  25. That Guy says:

    “Hey Kathleen Kennedy come here for a minute”

    “Yes, Bob?”

    “Listen, we’re going to have to let you go.”

    “W-what?!”

    “Well, even though you had the highest grossing film of the year three years in a row from 2015-17, a pretty impressive feat for a producer, your fourth time out lost a bunch of money.”

    “Well, that doesn’t make sense but I guess I understand. Who are you replacing me with?”

    “We’ve got this guy who did an okay job running a cartoon show for us.”

    “What.”

    “Yeah we really liked his work on that cartoon show so we decided to bypass the entire Hollywood movie establishment and give him a few hundred mil to throw around every year.”

    “Are you sure that’s wise?”

    “Yeah, we ran the numbers and even though you’ve generated $4bil in gross profits over three movies, that couple hundred mil you lost on SOLO just sticks in my craw. Plus a lot of angry Luke fans online are demanding it.”

    -excerpts from fantasy land

  26. GdB says:

    Yeah, because a guy who knows how to tell better stories on a limited cartoon budget than these new films would just go ca-raaaazy overboard because he only has worked on a TV show. No way he would know how to communicate or talk with a supervising Producer whose done budgets at that level. (rolls eyes)

    Hey That Guy,

    Genndy Tartikosvky and Geoff Johns are laughing at you right now.

  27. Pete B. says:

    Maybe they’re laughing with him? Cause that was some funny shit. Tip o’ the hat to That Guy.

  28. GdB says:

    Of course you would say that Pete. You’re still salty I pulled my degree out on you because you judged a book by its cover and thought you could get away with playing the film snob who can condescend the SW movie Geek because he loves SW. So that said Geek had to do something he’s never done in his life. Pull out his degree on a film snob and shut the film snob’s verbal condescension down by proving that Geek was scholastically more qualified than you by the very best to know what they are speaking of. In the critical studies program no less. It’s akin to the bully getting punched back and they just can’t get over it.

    Sigh, it never would’ve happened Pete if you were being a reasonable adult; having an open conversation, rather than trying to be a high culture film snob thinking they can condescend someone on cinema because they love SW, seemingly because you think SW is low culture. You got your card pulled. Get over it. xox

  29. Dr Wally Rises says:

    That Guy, you brought the noise there. Great post.

    Kathleen Kennedy is one of the most successful producers in movie history (ask yourself why so many of Spielberg’s greatest triumphs have come under her watch). Dave Filoni is a TV animation guy whose only credited movie crashed and burned (although The Clone Wars movie was only ever intended as a loss leader for the Hasbro toy line in all fairness). Filoni’s biggest claim to the Lucasfilm throne seems to be based on the fact that he presents himself to fans very much as One Of Us rather than having any established Bona Fides as a deliverer of successful movies.

    To put this in perspective re: Solo, the absolute worst opening weekend numbers that Star Wars has ever had is still better than the best opening a James Bond film has ever had (bar the brilliantly marketed 50th Anniversary entry Skyfall). Still better than the biggest opening weekend that Star Trek has ever had (okay, Solo’s first three days are almost exactly the same as Into Darkness if you want.to split hairs). Still better than the biggest opening weekend a Mission Impossible or Bourne movie has ever had. Point being, the Lucasfilm sky isn’t falling and most movie franchises wouldn’t turn up noses at these kind of numbers.

    And just how important are the movies to Disney anyhow? I still maintain that the Lucasfilm purchase was driven mainly by the theme park arms race rather than anything else, motivated in turn by Universal getting the rights to Harry Potter attractions. A steady pipeline of product from Abrams / Johnson / B&W / Favreau is there above all to drive foot traffic to Galaxy’s Edge. Thirty million visitors across both coasts with in the first year of operation. So let’s say, for instance, Episode 9 grosses ‘only’ $450 million instead of $700 million. They’ll make that up at the snack bar alone in Galaxy’s Edge.

  30. leahnz says:

    re the rather flat and hook-less marketing for ‘solo’ mentioned by a few above that probably hurt it:
    while i wouldn’t place the blame for the opening weekend fizzler on alden ehrenreich’s feet by any stretch, this is where anthony ingruber (of whom someone – i think it was pete b – posted a youtube vid here during a previous discussion of ingruber v alden, who is miscast, with ingruber doing what can only be described as a freakishly canny han solo impression) may have actually made a difference in getting bums in seats, initially at least (and really, how great of a thespian does the person who plays a young han solo really need to be? it’s all about the roguish charisma and physical presence, which ingruber has) — because the general movie-going public doesn’t give a rat’s ass about all this snarky shit people are squabbling over in this thread, they’ve seen the star wars movies and know harrison ford as han solo and then there’s a movie trailer where wow there’s this young guy who looks and sounds remarkably like han solo and think, hey this looks worth checking out for the novelty factor alone, it’s a point of interest, a hook to draw people in who are not hard-core star wars pedants but just casual fans that the movie is lacking

  31. EtGuild2 says:

    If Disney had decided to make four consecutive snoozefests (aside from the last 20 minutes of ROGUE ONE which they tweaked after realizing they may have to deal with comatose moviegoers) by going safe with TLJ would this have done better? Sure, but godamn those trailers were awful.

    I’m personally thrilled that we have a breather now with only one traditonal superhero movie (ANT MAN) till October, no Star Wars for awhile and *gasp* only one live-action sequel in the next month! It’ll be fascinating to see if the gravy train continues this year or not.

  32. movieman says:

    Definitely off topic, but did anyone else watch FX’s recently-concluded “Trust”?
    Thought it was flat-out terrific, and at least 10 X better than “All the Money in the World.”
    One of my favorite things about it was how Donald Sutherland’s performance as J.P. Getty reminded me of his Casanova from the 1977 Fellini movie. (Speaking of under-sung masterpieces!)

  33. EtGuild2 says:

    $2 billion now looks very likely for IW. It’s now #2 overseas all-time if you exclude the TITANIC 3D re-release. Honestly, this number makes AVATAR’s accomplishment look even more ridiculous, and untouchable for another few years. How the hell did that movie make $2 billion overseas almost a decade ago? The numbers it put up in Europe may never be seen again.

  34. Pete B says:

    GdB, this is why Brack & I think you and JS are the same person cause you’re both so damn sensitive. “Pulled your degree” out on me? What does that even mean? I had to read your post twice and both times I come away with… WTF? I really have no idea what you’re talking about.

    And me, a film snob? I think you got the wrong guy as I’m the person who loves Summer films and dreads the Fall dramas. Not sure why you’re screeching about being a SW geek. I’m the one that said I liked both TFA & TLJ, and they’re both SW movies.

  35. Pete B says:

    Leah, yeah I posted the Ingruber vid, but only after you mentioned him. So give yourself the pat on the back. I’d never heard of him before your post, and had to Google him. But he’s scary good.

    For the curious:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bba_wPdLxp4

  36. Stella's Boy says:

    I have been watching Trust movieman but I have yet to watch last night’s finale. I’ve really enjoyed it. Sutherland is fantastic and it’s something I knew nothing about. Another quality FX program.

    I enjoy these squabbles as someone who has no skin in the game and no side. Nerd fight.

  37. movieman says:

    The finale lived up to the previous nine episodes, SB. Completely satisfying.
    I was afraid that the quality would decline after the early Danny Boyle-directed eps, but that never happened.

    And as good as Christopher Plummer was in “All the Money…,” Sutherland’s Getty surpassed him. Of course, he had richer material to work with.

  38. Stella's Boy says:

    That’s good to know. It’s been a treat to watch Sutherland in such a juicy role, and I’ve really enjoyed the work Fraser and Swank have done as well. Very good show.

  39. leahnz says:

    yes after version 1.1 of this conversation and watching that youtube there’s vid of some of ingruber’s other impressions as well, he’s clearly a bit of a natural at vocal impersonations (who made the decision to cast alden e, i must admit i’m curios cuz i think they fucked up royally)

    speaking of playing a young Harrison ford, a funny ford anecdote:
    i have a very old video clip stored on hard-drive from the ’88 set of IJ and the last crusade (i’m pretty sure it’s no longer on youtube, culled in one of the great copyright purges) where R phoenix and H ford and S spielberg are all on set and River is rehearsing for a scene using the bullwhip, and the interviewer or camera operator (not sure) comes up to ford and spielberg, who are looking on, and asks harrison why river was cast to play him as young indy, and ford says something like “i know river from when he played my son in ‘the mosquito coast’ and he’s the one actor who really resembles a younger me”, and it’s like crikey get thee to an optometrist mr ford cuz man, river doesn’t look a thing like you (though he pulls off young indy brilliantly with an intuitive flourish of ford-esque mannerisms, facial expressions and voice cadence).
    the moral of the story: i think ford may be partially blind, might explain all the glaucoma meds haha

  40. JS Partisan says:

    Ethan, that Avatar number, is about as real as Westworld, but price gouging was real with that movie. Rather people want to remember it… Or not.

    Pete, you referring to me, or anyone here, as sensitive is damn funny. Again. If you can’t tell the difference between Gdb and I, then you really need to up perception by three whole points!

    That guy, and they should still hire a fan. Kevin Feige is a fan, and all of these other failed franchises are run by non fans. People who try to pervert these franchises into what they want, and not what a large swarth of people want. These are also executives, who ignore like this blog likes to do, that fandom has evolved to a point where it cannot be ignored. You have to throw people bones to get them into the theater.

    Finally. Wally, Star Wars is dealing with Marvel Studios, and guess what? Marvel Studios has surpassed them. That’s a problem for a property, that was supposed to be the Golden Goose. And Rogue One finished behind Civil War in 2016.

  41. spassky says:

    That Ingruber guy is so uncharming. He comes off as some kid playing pokemon go alone in a bathroom between classes. that video is seriously embarrassing.

    They just needed to cast someone who doesn’t come off as a little boy. Which Eihrenreich stinks of. He’s all of 5’5″, voice like a spayed wombat, and has his little tough boy stare right off a wheaties cereal box. Make for kids, or don’t — just spare us these pretty ectomorphic nothings straight out of a sideplot of josh and drake.

    I hate to just sound like a high school bully, but these actors are just so unCOOL.

  42. Pete B says:

    spassky, is this any better?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwLv993khfI

    The guy has the mannerisms & the voice down. He doesn’t have to be Gary Oldman earning an Oscar as Winston Churchill. He just has to have the swagger of guy from long long ago in a galaxy far far away…

  43. movieman says:

    That’s the “Age of Adaline” Harrison Ford lookalike I was talking about, Pete!
    Guess he did have some dialogue (in that film) after all. (Did Ford dub him, though?)
    It’s a very good movie btw w/ a terrific Ford performance, and strong work by Blake Lively and Ellen Burstyn, too.

  44. Pete B says:

    Movieman, I thought that they had CGI’d Harrison Ford into looking younger until I saw that other Ingruber vid.

    Never did get to see AoA in the theater, but I’ll look it up now, thanks.

  45. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS, any evidence of Western European price gouging for AVATAR? If there was gouging, it was the fact there were a limited number of 3D theatres overseas then, which makes sense. Regardless, it’s stunning IW didn’t even come close in a much larger overseas market.

    Speaking of IW’s grosses, domestically anyone who thinks it won’t be #4 all-time ahead of the TITANIC cume is tripping. It could match ULTRON dollar for dollar and almost catch it and it outran ULTRON by 50% in the comparable weekend this weekend. $675 million is still the target.

    Hasn’t been mentioned much at all here, but the fact Gabrielle Union led a film to a $45 million gross at age 46 (despite the fact she looks 33) makes me sad that she never got a shot as a commercial lead, and she’s more known for hip-hop song name drops. She was born too early.

  46. spassky says:

    Ingruber looks like some dude who listens to Yes and shit his pants in 10th grade basketball practice. No swagger. Sidetalking. no charm.

    LFL should have just cast The Rock and said screw it.

  47. BO Sock Puppet says:

    For what’s been spent on the movie, they could’ve de-aged Ford.

  48. Geoff says:

    Dr Wally, comparing any Star Wars movie to James Bond just helps illustrate my point above: ION has kept that franchise going for 50 plus years because they ADAPT with the times and take their time between movies…..at least they’ve done so since the ’80’s with the glaring exception of Quantum of Solace.

    You wanna brag about Solo out-opening Bond movies??? Fine but Solo cost around $100 million MORE to make than either of the past two Bond films and will be lucky to clear $400 million worldwide at this point….whereas Skyfall made $1.1 billion and SPECTRE (even though nobody really liked it) made almost $900 million worldwide. And beyond that, when ION decides to hire a director….that director generally will stay on the film even through the final edit, the latter of which has only happened 50% of the time with Lucasfilm since being bought by Disney.

    And I’m not going to hold up the Bond series as perfection because it isn’t: half of the films have been mediocre at best. But….Die Another Day was the highest grossing film in the franchise to date but the fans were not having it – the film wasn’t terrible but it was the first Bond film to over-use CGI 25 years after you had stunt-men risking their lives to parachute with the Union Jack flag. The fans hated the direction the franchise was going in and ION listened…..four years later, back-to-basics reboot with Casino Royale and the highest grossing film in the franchise to date. Six years later, they listened AGAIN after the middling response that Quantum of Solace received despite making about as much as Casino Royale….and they TOOK THEIR TIME by releasing Skyfall four years later with record grosses for the franchise worldwide and the THIRD highest even adjusted for inflation…and multiple Oscar nominations. And sadly, the Star Wars franchise hasn’t even released a movie rivaling the quality of Skyfall or Casino Royale in 38 years…….

    I don’t think she deserves to be fired but Kathleen Kennedy needs to stop looking at this as a race, probably Alan Horn too….

  49. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Leah, that clip of Spielberg, Ford and Phoenix is on the Indiana Jones Blu Ray I think. Phoenix…..such a tragic waste.

    Thanks Geoff, I appreciate that. Point still stands – that when Star Wars stumbles that’s still like Christmas for pretty much everyone else. Skyfall being better than everything Star Wars post-1980? If that’s what you think then fair enough. But I’ll raise you that Solo is still a much better movie than Bond’s low water-marks over the years (Man with the Golden Gun, Moonraker, Quantum of Solace, Diamonds are Forever, all but the first Brosnan).

    Perspective, that’s all.

  50. Geoff says:

    And watch….everything I said above falls apart when Danny Boyle walks off of the next Bond movie. 😛

    But until then….WOW how fucking perfect, I cannot be more excited for Boyle to direct Bond….it’s almost TOO perfect!

  51. movieman says:

    Yeah; that was my first thought, too, when I saw “A of A,” Pete.
    I couldn’t believe they were able to find somebody who looked so much like a young H. Ford. He was so spookily uncanny I assumed he had to be CGI, not human.

    Completely unrelated to anything discussed on this thread (and I’m not even sure why I thought of them at all), but the ABSOLUTE WORST movies I’ve seen so far this millennium not directed by Dinesh D’Souza are “Turn of Faith” (2002) and “Shooting Vegetarians” (2005).
    Pretty sure that neither has received a home video release (or even cable exposure).
    Avoid them at all costs. (Considering their deserved obscurity, that should be relatively easy to do, lol.)

  52. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Boyle and Bond is going to be interesting to say the least. If all goes well, then he could make the best Bond ever. But that’s a man-sized ‘If’. Don’t forget that he once said he would never go near a big budget franchise after his experience on what became Alien Resurrection.

  53. movieman says:

    My pick for the “best Bond ever” remains Sam Mendes’ “Skyfall” (w/ Mendes’ “Spectre” a close second).
    They’re gonna be tough to beat.

  54. Geoff says:

    I know Dr. Wally – he has steered away from franchises for a long time but this is BOND and I get the sense in light of the Olympics-Daniel Craig stunt he directed back in 2012, he would not just be a gun for a hire for Broccoli/Wilson…..it’s a great match that I’m of course trepidatious about but it’s hard to not be excited at least early on. And Skyfall would also be my personal favorite/best Bond film…SPECTRE isn’t even close unfortunately.

    Long-time Bond fan, below would be my Top Five (subject to change):

    1. Skyfall
    2. You Only Live Twice
    3. Goldfinger
    4. Casino Royale
    5. The Spy Who Loved Me

  55. Geoff says:

    And JS, quit trying to diminish the success of Avatar man – yes it benefited from strong exchange rates in ’09 and yes it also benefited from 3D pricing (though EVERY blockbuster since 2010 has now benefited from that thank you) but the film was an unqualified MASSIVE success without any asterisks.

    And yeah, hey props to Infinity War for doing way more than I expected – I was thinking The Last Jedi/Age of Ultron numbers which aren’t exactly bad in and of themself – but let’s not act like China didn’t punch up those numbers too: they tied in their brand new online ticketing app to the opening of IW and nobody is actually sure of EXACT box office (they reported online sales before counting actual dollars) though I have little doubt it was huge. IW like most Marvel films….and anything starring Vin Diesel….and anything from Illumination Entertainment….and anything video game-based like Ready Player One or Warcraft…..have ALL had their worldwide numbers inflated by wonky grosses in the Chinese market over the past six or seven years. Comparing overseas grosses PRE vs. POST 2013 are very different because of that China explosion….so if anything you need to include an asterisk for that too.

    Just for perspective: Avatar made $2.03 billion overseas with $204 million coming from China vs. Infinity War which has made $1.28 billion overseas with $301 million from China – that’s 10% (Avatar) from China vs. 24% (IW) from China, BIG difference.

    That said Marvel Studios is as about teflon as they get right now – there is NOTHING they could do to piss off their fanbase short of having Bucky molest Peter Parker….so moving forward, EVERY MCU film is guaranteed $1 billion it’s not even a question! Ant-Man & Wasp: $1.1 billion, Captain Marvel: $1.5 billion, and Infinity War 2: $2.1 billion there ya go! $1 billion is the floor moving forward…..

  56. movieman says:

    You know what one of my favorite Bonds is?
    I know that it’s heretical in some quarters because it’s not a Broccoli Bond, but I really love Irvin Kershner’s “Never Say Never Again.”
    At the time, Kershner was the best director (not counting John Huston’s contribution to the 1967–also “unofficial Bond”–“Casino Royale”) to tackle a 007 movie. And would remain so until Mendes.
    Michael Apted was probably the most interesting director to try their hand at Bond between Kershner and Mendes. Too bad his entry–“The World is Not Enough”–was as middling/unmemorable as any John Glen entry.

  57. movieman says:
  58. leahnz says:

    “Leah, that clip of Spielberg, Ford and Phoenix is on the Indiana Jones Blu Ray I think. Phoenix…..such a tragic waste.”

    yes that’s the one – though i’m fairly certain the clip on the Blu is from that same rehearsal with a few words passed between ford and spielberg while they are watching but it’s not the same bit where he’s asked about why River was cast (but i could be wrong, i have that blue but haven’t watched it in donkeys, i’ll check out the extras again, if it is that same clip then hoorah; i remember a big deal was made online at the time that the clip was a rare out-take, never to be seen again once it was disappeared, but maybe that was just silliness).
    yep river was the shit, gone but not forgotten

    ETA pretty sure that is ingruber’s voice in ‘age of adeline’, i mean you can slag him off and think he’s a massive dork as a person and all but he is just a young guy sitting in his dags in his room doing video impersonations, once he’s on a proper set such as in AofA he’s obviously a bit more polished and professional and sure as shit would have been a better choice for solo than alden, who looks and sounds nothing like han solo, but whatever i don’t really give a damn, the whole porigins thing is fucked up

  59. Chucky says:

    Solo has crashed on takeoff and it’s sent shockwaves through the larger culture — even the BBC is reporting on it. Maybe Hollywood should realize there are just too many goddamn comic book and superhero movies!

    Besides, not everybody is a dumb fanboy with mommy’s plastic. There’s anecdotal evidence that Solo is playing to lots of empty seats in small towns.

  60. Hcat says:

    But Chucks none of the Solo ads mentioned the academy awards, how could it of failed?

  61. Hcat says:

    I hope this leads to a lot of “I heard Solo’s no good let’s see the boat movie instead” conversations next weekend, cause that Woodley is a damn star.

  62. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff? No. Again. It’s about remaining, and something that big. Something that level of epic. Should have stuck the landing, and where is it? It’s fishy, because Titanic is 20 plus years old, and still has influence. The biggest film of all time? Bupkis. Absolute bupkis. So… I can find it hokey. The same way Wired magazine wrote about Avatar’s hokiness.

    Outside of that? You stated the MSCU peaked four years ago. How’d that level of.wrong treating you? The ceiling for MSCU movies, is around 800m. I can see Wasp and Ant-Man and Captain Marvel getting there, but they are going to have to sell both films better than they are selling Wasp and Ant-Man right now. Wasp and Ant-Man need a THIS IS WHAT’S HAPPENING trailer, and Captain Marvel needs to show a lot of personality. Also, it needs a trailer in July, due it’s nutty release date.

    Oh yeah. Solo is an epic bomb, but Star Wars will be fine in like five to ten years. Let people forget, then come back with something different. I’m not sure Disney wants to do this, but they need to do this.

    HC… A star with a lot of self inflicted baggage, but that movie could be really interesting. Seeing as how it’s treating what happened.

  63. palmtree says:

    Anyone else think they missed the boat by not making the Lando movie? Donald Glover was the only part of the trailer that felt genuinely exciting.

  64. Geoff says:

    JS, I mea culpa’ed several months ago about being wrong about the MCU peaking and you responded – don’t be a MCU-Dude-Bro and gloat about it. 😉

  65. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff, I will tease you about this…. At my own discretion :D. We all know, that DC fans are the dude Bros. IT’S JUST SO DARK!

  66. Hcat says:

    JS, I’m not aware of any baggage, is there people magazine level drama that I am not aware of?

    And this Solo thing is an easy fix, they just need to add a bumper to the beginning and end of an animated intergalactic postman reading kids letters like “when did you meet Chewbacca? How did you get the Falcon? Why are you called Han?” If they are going to create Rankin/bass level bullshit they just need to blatantly acknowledge it so it goes down better. They could get Tony Bennet to do the voice.

  67. Bulldog says:

    JS sometimes you really nail it and other times you just lose me “Ethan, that Avatar number, is about as real as Westworld, but price gouging was real with that movie. Rather people want to remember it… Or not.”

    Unless you can provide proof, quit posting your opinion as fact. There are tons of other movies I think “deserve” to be #1 at the box office. When you post stuff like this you sound someone saying Obama placed a spy in the Trump administration or millions of illegals voted for Hillary.

  68. JS Partisan says:

    Bulldog, go back to Summer 2010, because I’m sure that I posted that Wired article when it came out. Thanks to Avengers, Black Panther, and TFA beating Avatar’s domestic records, or challenging them. It’s damn near impossible to find it, but it’s here in the blog. I posted it, and many of you dismissed it, even if it was written by a mathematician.

    Also. I don’t have to do anything that you want me to do, you’re not a boss in here, and when you pull that shit. It’s only a reminder that everyone can have an opinion but me.

    Did you read the post though? That’s a sound argument, because how does Avatar do this almost ten years ago. While actually profound and popular franchise do not even sniff it? Again. If it were so large, mattered so much, then where is it’s longevity?

    I can feel something is hokey, Bd. I can even post about it, because it’s my opinion… Which you once again do not like me having 😀

    HC, she apparently gets eye rolls for being an enviromentalist and what not. It’s weird, but she’s awesome.

  69. Stella's Boy says:

    I couldn’t find anything in Wired, but I did find this, from January 2010: http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/540426-should-avatars-box-office-numbers-have-an-asterisk-next-them

    Is that sort of what you’re getting at JS?

  70. JS Partisan says:

    SB, it was similar, but it was a guy who did a deep dive about ticket pricing, and how a lot of 3d movies in 2010 got a bump from the price gouging. None of those to the level of Avatar.

    Again. It’s no big deal, but it’s hokey. Really. Really. Hokey. Look at what Avengers and TFA have to do for Two billion, how Titanic still has resonance, and you’re telling me the movie with zero cultural impact bested them on an even field? It’s hokey, and hinky.

    This is also internationally. Why? TFA shows it was plausible for Avatar to do what it did domestically, but the international numbers are where it’s like, “Really?”

  71. hcat says:

    “because how does Avatar do this almost ten years ago. While actually profound and popular franchise do not even sniff it? ”

    I would imagine it was because it sold more tickets.

    As for the longevity or legacy or whatever you want to call it, its legacy is that it made more real dollars than any other movie had or since. Its appeal probably diminished greatly once it hit home video since it would not be as awe inspiring visually when its not thirty feet tall. Its certainly pales in comparison to some of the directors other works etc. It is not difficult to see this as being a big flash in the pan, a must see at the time but not holding up in the long haul. Hell you could make the same argument about Burton’s Batman and Phantom Menace. How did they reach those heights when they are certainly not seen as touchstones anymore.

    And I would add Force Awakens to that list, pent up demand and nostalgia fueled a domestic record that will not be broken for some time, but it won’t live on in the audiences hearts and be constantly found by later generations like say Grease.

  72. Pete B says:

    Avatar had to be seen in theater. You couldn’t replicate the magic with a home viewing. That movie set the bar for 3D, and it hasn’t been touched. Was it the best movie ever? Hell no. It’s not even Cameron’s best film. But it’s hard to disagree that the visuals were jaw dropping.

  73. JS Partisan says:

    HC, but the he tickets weren’t the same price, and did you miss part of the reason people hated TLJ? TFA was just damaged beyond repair, and it’s sequel limits it’s posterity… Not the film itself.

    The visuals make for a fun amusement park ride. That’s about it.

  74. Doug R says:

    *”From December 1939 to July 1940, the film played only advance-ticket road show engagements at a limited number of theaters at prices upwards of $1—more than double the price of a regular first-run feature—with MGM collecting an unprecedented 70 percent of the box office receipts (as opposed to the typical 30–35 percent of the period). After reaching saturation as a roadshow, MGM revised its terms to a 50 percent cut and halved the prices, before it finally entered general release in 1941 at “popular” prices.”

    *Looks like Gone With The Wind needs an asterisk too

  75. palmtree says:

    The whole asterisk thing makes no sense, because ticket prices do change year to year so somehow we’re going to weigh that against every film that contends for box office champ? Are we going to keep track of second-run theatre prices too? It’s impossible.

    And if Cameron found a way to charge more and people bought it, well then that’s another win in his column. We still have 3D movies today just because of him. So how’s that for legacy?

    The only asterisk I want is the one that refers to re-releases of films, which can bolster the original total to make it seem bigger artificially than it was. I really dislike that Mojo includes the re-releases in those totals, even if they put an asterisk there.

  76. Bulldog68 says:

    Well Mojo is listing it’s lifetime gross so it depends on what you think is more important, lifetime or initial gross.

    Also JS, like many other conspiracy theories, do you realize how much people around the globe would have to be “in on it” to accomplish what yo are alluding to. C’mon man. Avatar did $760m domestically. The avg price of movie tickets in 2009 was $7.50. Lets say we use an average of $10 to account for the people who didn’t see it in 3D, that still comes out to 76 million people. Avengers 1 made $623, and also had a fair amount of 3D. Even with the same $10 average that’s 14 million people less. That’s a lot of cheddar.

    I get it. You hate that what to you seems like Ferngully 2 sat atop the box office for so long and still does internationally. It also doesn’t help that Cameron shouldn’t be dissing superhero movies. That’s poor form and a bit of a douche move. Everyone is working to provide entertainment. Leave the criticism to the critics and fans and don’t disparage your work kin. It’s possible to like both Sarah Connor and Wonder Woman without making it into a competition.

    Get over it JS.

  77. hcat says:

    In the all time lists Mojo goes with the cumulative, but if you look up by studio they separate out the rereleases, which gives it a little better perspective.

    Unrelated I would like to ask unpassionately what counts as a flop nowadays. Solo should make the same domestically as Fate of the Furious and while that might fall into the category of ‘saved by international’ or ‘soft’ no one was pointing it out as a outright disaster. Regardless of the budget Justice League sold a lot of tickets and was in the top ten for the year, is this a flop because they expected to make more? Solo opening to $165 million is hardly a case of global indifference and given that most sequels have been having a rough time of it lately (just last year Furious, Despicable, Justice League, Cars, Pirates, Kingsman, Transformers, Grey, Pitch Perfect, Apes and Aliens, Home Daddy’s and Bad Mommy’s all off domestically from previous installment but all but a few leaving theaters in the black). So while it didn’t perform to expectations and might not meet its budget in theatrical, it is still being seen at a high rate. Basically that Solo falls into the Waterworld category not The Postman.

  78. palmtree says:

    Fate of the Furious wasn’t soft. It was on par with all the other Furious movies save for the outlier that was 7, which had Paul Walker’s memorial as a driver of sales. And maybe more importantly, Fate’s opening was up there as well. Hell, it’s outgrossing Solo at this point.

    Lifetime gross….*shudders*….

  79. hcat says:

    Solo is behind Fate by about 4 million at the same point. You were right about 7 being the outlier, for some reason I thought 6 was significantly higher as well but I was mistaken.

    But that does go to my question, if Solo does roughly the same foot traffic, and seen by approx. the same amount as eyeballs as Fate how is Solo a flop but Fate not even soft. I had the same question last summer, The Mummy was rightly ridiculed but did nearly identical numbers to Edge of Tomorrow on a lower budget. Isn’t that interpretation simply based on expectations? Shouldn’t flop be an objective distinction? And if so what would the lines be?

  80. palmtree says:

    Cleopatra was the highest grossing movie of its year and is still considered one of the biggest flops in history. It’s not objective. It has to be based on expectations and budget.

    Also keep in mind, F7 and F8 were both $1 billion plus grossers worldwide. So domestic is hardly the best metric to use for its importance. Will Solo get to $1 billion?

  81. JS Partisan says:

    BD, what are you fucking on about? It’s not a fucking conspiracy theory. It’s fucking math. Ticket prices were incredibly inflated, but let’s just ignore there were multiple Clash of the Titans movies! Get over it. I sure as shit won’t bring it up again without getting your Navi ass in twist!

    Solo will be lucky to get get Ant-Man money.

  82. Triple Option says:

    I’m not feeling this Ant-Man Wasp thing. At least not by the trailer I just saw before Solo. I’m sure they’re gonna drag in at least two more characters to broaden the appeal but not expecting legs or wings for that matter. We’ll see, maybe the next one will blow me away.

  83. movieman says:

    Weird that STX would date their new Berg/Wahlberg movie the week after “MI” since it looks like “MI” by a different name.
    And there are four other wide releases dated for August 3rd as well.
    Sounds like “Mile 22″ needs to be moved to fall.

    Does anyone really think “The Hustle” is opening June 29th?
    No trailer or even one-sheet online yet.

  84. Bulldog says:

    JS, if it’s the fucking math then show your math, otherwise take your ball and go home. Also, bringing up Clash of the Titans proves my point. Lots of 3D extravaganzas opened after Avatar, and no doubt the ticket prices inflated the box office, but for every Alice in Wonderland there was a Saw 3D.

  85. hcat says:

    “Cleopatra was the highest grossing movie of its year and is still considered one of the biggest flops in history. It’s not objective. It has to be based on expectations and budget. ”

    That’s exactly what I’m talking about. There is no doubt that it lost money upon release because of its notorious production but at the time it would have been one of the top five highest grossing films in history. If terms are not objective, aren’t they largely meaningless?

  86. hcat says:

    When I see the Ant-man Trailer and he is towering over the boat, I can’t help but think of Animal’s big scene in the Muppet Movie.

    Maybe push the Wahlberg back a week or so, whatever date Hitman’s Bodyguard was able to hold court last year. They maybe wanted to make sure they weren’t going head to head with their own Happytime Murders, and while I try to present myself as an intelligent adult, the silly string scene in the trailer made me laugh out loud. But lets not move anything else out of summer, we already lost Battle Angel and Predator, summer seems a little slimmer than past years.

  87. JS Partisan says:

    BD, pffft. I don’t care. Just stop dictating shit at me.

    Battle Angel is the quietest moving movie ever. That’s a terrible release date though. It doesn’t scream , “Xmas,”but they want to milk as much from it as possible.

    The Predator looks terrible, but I’m seeing it. Outside of that? Summer will probably have a lot of fun smaller films, like that film starring Ron Offerman.

  88. Amblinman says:

    Hey box office geniuses:

    Can one of you explain to me why Christopher Robin coming out in August instead of the holidays? Latter too crowded?

  89. JS Partisan says:

    Mary Poppins. Disney wants a clear path, at Christmas for Mary Poppins. They should hold it for February, but I guess the hope is people find it. Which they will… On the Disney Streaming service.

  90. Amblinman says:

    Thanks, JS. It annoys me. The trailer screams Christmas wreaths, not air conditioning.

    Assholes.

  91. Hcat says:

    Because you don’t enter a dog in a horse race?

    Besides Poppins Disney is selling Ralph II and a very expensive Nutcracker in the same season. While there is no family comp after hotel trans.

  92. palmtree says:

    Hcat, the terms, even if not objective, are not meaningless. Cleopatra put Fox at risk of bankruptcy. They had to sell off a bunch of stuff including their backlot, and it basically was the death knell for big budget historical epics in the entire industry.

    I understand the desire for objective stats. I wondered that myself regarding the per screen average stat, which gets reported but doesn’t actually serve objectivity because a movie can be on multiple screens in a single theater. So why report it as if it meant something?

    But I feel like in the realm of hit versus flop, we know what the expectation are from its budget, its historical precedents, its various barometers (social media, Fandango sales, etc.), and of course now whether it belongs to a big cinematic universe-style franchise. So given all those reference points of triangulation, if a movie falls way short of those expectations, we can safely call it a flop. Context is key.

  93. Bulldog68 says:

    JS, so I assume you did not find the math. :-)

  94. JS Partisan says:

    BD. You’re being rude, so I don’t care to joust. I have my opinion, and it apparently is really hurtful to your fandom… Of one.

    And Solo shouldn’t be seen as a flop, but they reshot an entire movie. Should that matter? No, but it does. Star Wars is just in a weird place, because the MSCU exist. If the MSCU didn’t exist. TLJ wouldn’t have gone over like a wet fart. People wouldn’t have been used to an interconnected stortelling, and so on and so forth.

  95. Hcat says:

    I don’t see how Marvel’s existence affects Star Wars. TLJ’s problems, and people seem to disagree on what they are, were all self contained and would still be there no matter what else had been playing in the Marketplace.

  96. Chucky says:

    Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm Ltd. are both subsidiaries of the Walt Disney Co. High profits at low risk. Wall Street understands that even if fanboys don’t.

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