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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by An Avenger In Every Pot Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-04-29 at 11.15.19 AM

Nice opening. Klady still has Avengers a million behind Force Awakens. Mojo is pushing a flat $250 million.

All of this is marketing now.

The worldwide number is more impressive, up $90 million from the previous leader, with China kicking in the next couple weekends.

Boo-birds will find another way to say that this is not good for the theatrical box office. Too concentrated or whatever excrement they can pull out. Zzzzzz

What can I tell people who don’t want to hear? There will be six $100 million openings before July. The record for a full year is eight. And then, there will be a massive wave of “middle class” openings between $50-$80 million with Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscraper, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, Mission: Impossible: Fallout, and two possible cartoon openings getting to $50m+ with Hotel Transylvania 3 and Teen Titans Go To The Movies.

But that doesn’t include al the programmers than will open between $20-$50 million: Life of The Party, Book Club, Action Point, Ocean’s 8 (which could blow up even larger), The First Purge, Equalizer 2, The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians.

That’s 19 solid-to-sensational openings in three months, playing to all fields… but wah wah wah, no one wants to go to the movie theater anymore. Someone forgot to tell movie lovers. And this is just the domestic box office. There is a momentary downside to this. No film without an Avenger on more than 40 screens did more than $5,000 per screen for the weekend. And only three did more than $3,000 with any screen count.

Nice number for Disobedience on 5five managing $47K per. Those are well-attended screenings. Will be interesting to learn how many Orthodox Jews attended.

A Quiet Place, the opposite of Infinity War, crosses $150 million on Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be Paramount’s first $150 million domestic movie in the last 21 months, the first $150 million original in 29 months, and one of only eight $150m domestic grossers for the studio in the last five years (five of those being franchise sequels).

And Black Panther dropped only 10%, as Disney tries (likely in vain) to get the film to $700m domestic and to pass Star Wars: The Last Jedi on worldwide gross (that happens this coming week).

88 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by An Avenger In Every Pot Klady”

  1. palmtree says:

    Haha…$247.6m is just barely under the opening record set by TFA. It feels like Klady is playing the Price is Right, especially because $250m is the number everyone else is peddling. Can’t wait to see what the actuals come out to and whether JS is right or merely almost right.

  2. JSPartisan says:

    Palm, that projection seems low. 65 to 70 seems like a more realistIic drop off then 61.6, but we shall.see. MCN putting it 3.4m below, when everyone else is right at 250, is rather funny.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    An amazing expected domestic debut, but a truly jaw-dropping overseas debut. If they’d gone day-and-date with China, we’d be staring at a $750M worldwide rollout.

    Does it catch BLACK PANTHER domestically though (does it matter:no)? Here’s the multipliers for all MCU movies….it’s interesting to note that a non-origin story has never done better than a 2.7 :

    Guardians 3.5
    Black Panther 3.4-3.5
    Iron Man 3.2
    Ant-Man 3.2
    Avengers 3.0
    Spiderman 2.9
    Cap: Winter Soldier 2.7
    Thor 2.7
    Doctor Strange 2.7
    Guardians Volume 2 2.7
    Cap: First Avenger 2.7
    Thor: Ragnarok 2.6
    Incredible Hulk 2.5
    Iron Man 2 2.4
    Thor: Dark World 2.4
    Iron Man 3 2.4
    Avengers: Ultron 2.4
    Captain America: Civil War 2.3

    *If it behaves like CIVIL WAR and ULTRON it will hit $600 million, which would be, ridiculously looked at as some kind of disappointment.

    *If it acts like an average Marvel movie and hits the high-water mark for an MCU sequel it will end at $675 million.

    *If it behaves like the first AVENGERS it would challenge AVATAR for #2 all-time

    *If it mimicks BLACK PANTHER and GOTG1 at the high-end of MCU releases, it would do $875 million.

    *And for giggles, if it somehow were to imitate WONDER WOMAN, the leggiest superhero on the planet, it would hit the coveted $1 billion mark.

    Personally, I’ll go with a 2.8 multiplier, a new high for an MCU sequel which would place it in a virtual tossup with PANTHER in cume for #3 all-time. And $2 billion worldwide, in a race with FORCE AWAKENS for #3 all-time.

  4. Hcat says:

    And to agree with everything but one thing that David wrote above and only post on what I disagree with.

    Mamma Mia opening to more than 25 mill is BONKERS!!!!

  5. JSPartisan says:

    Mamma Mia, is getting close to 50. How close depends on marketing, but people love the original movie. They love the hell out of it, so Dave isn’t that far fetched.

  6. palmtree says:

    Solid work, ET. My vote is for a 3.0 multiplier.

  7. Glamourboy says:

    I think Mamma Mia could go either way at this point…the recent exhibitor’s convention in Vegas voted it as one of the summer films they were least excited about, blaming the mediocre trailer and the lack of Meryl Streep in the cast. Cher’s last movie (Burlesque) was a big flop so I don’t think she adds to much to the equation. I’m going with a 30mil opening.

  8. Greg says:

    Isn’t the fact that Infinity War is closer to three hours than two and therefore is missing a screening each day more important?

  9. Hcat says:

    It’s playing on so many screens at each theater I doubt it’s missing any revenue

  10. Poet says:

    This isn’t a unique social phenomenon like Black Panther, so I’d say a low multiplier of 2.5.

    But then again, this summer movie season looks really awful, so maybe the public will have to keep going back to Avengers?

  11. Michael Bergeron says:

    you can’t knock success … that being said at the afternoon press screening last tues I had gotten up at 5 am and by the time the film was unwinding I nodded out for a brief time . … in other words I totally do not remember seeing Del Toro in the film … holy shit what else did I miss??

  12. Night Owl says:

    Del Toro had about 30 seconds of screen time doing the similar quasi Roger Rabbit nonsense he did in Last Jedi. Stop putting him in these genre movies, he’s awful in them.

    Between inflation, front loading, and ticket prices rising it’s gotten to the point where a $250 million opening is no stunner. It’s not even interesting. I just thought…yeah I figured. The opening weekend record was broken twice in 2015, lasted 3 years after Force Awakens, will probably last one year until Avengers 4 and then maybe 2-3 years after that (Episode 9 won’t break it). The final number will always be the only one worth looking at unless you’re the PR flack awaiting your bonus.

  13. JSPartisan says:

    That’s some sheer shittiness, Night Owl. Let’s just remember, that no Marvel Studios film was supposed to be in Star Wars rarified neighborhood. That’s the same thing that happened with Jurassic World beating Avengers record. Seriously. You shtting on it. Does not change one bit, that this wasn’t supposed to happen. Few people saw this coming, but good on you for being ahead of the curve.

  14. brack says:

    Given it’s still April, with no 2nd weekend holiday bounce or anything, IW opening looks even more impressive.

  15. movieman says:

    Glamour- Streep’s in the “Mamma” sequel.
    Not that that’s much of a selling point for me these days.
    Nor is the fact that I hated the original, lol.
    Lily James is the only reason I’m not entirely dreading it….and the camp value of Cher (playing Streep’s mother), of course.

  16. palmtree says:

    $250m isn’t a stunner? In what world? Justice League also benefited from “inflation, front loading, and ticket prices rising” and yet couldn’t even muster $250m over its entire run.

    Also, it may not be $250m. Mojo just updated the estimate to $258m. JS is looking good right now.

  17. JSPartisan says:

    I was off by only 1.8m! Seriously. No one saw it breaking the record on Saturday morning! The box office numbers above, are off by 11 million! That’s how interesting and weird this has been. Where someone like Ray, didn’t see Infinity War making more than a record, that a lot of people saw standing due to the “importance” of the movie that made it.

  18. Sideshow Bill says:

    I haven’t seen INFINITY WAR yet and won’t until Sunday. Too busy. But I’m very excited and just have to avoid spoiler for 6 more days. The people who poo poo and try to lessen what these films and series have accomplished are silly. Movies has always been business first, art second. If you get good art out of something that makes money then it’s a minor miracle.Everyone is welcome to their opinion and taste but I’d argue that MCU has produced 3-4 truly great films. BLACK PANTHER, THOR RAGNAROK, CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER and may the first AVENGERS. IRON MAN 2 is the only real clunker for me. I even like THE INCREDIBLE HULK though it’s not top tier and it wastes Edward Norton.

    Anyway….I did watch GHOST STORIES on demand Saturday night and it’s one of IFC Midnight’s better offerings in a while. It’s a scary and genuinely compelling little puzzle box. My girlfriend literally screamed out loud three times but she’s an easy mark, to be honest. It earns it’s jump scares, has great performances (Martin Freeman just gets better and better) and leaves you with things to think about. I’d love to see the stage play it was based on.

  19. Bulldog says:

    Breaking the box office record isn’t a stunner? That’s a good one.

    Nothing is “supposed” to be the biggest. And when there is no pent up demand for Marvel movies and instead it’s the direct opposite where you’re getting one basically every other weekend now, breaking records is a feat. This nothing-to-see-here attitude is ridiculous.

    Sure the final number is what you will look at as well, but he Opening Weekend number is a testament to the Marketing Dept and the must-see-now environment that they will able to tap into. Whether it’s A Quiet Place, Black Panther, or Avengers, or heck even Suicide Squad, it should be acknowledged.

    And I hope that all that talk about Superhero movie fatigue is now dead.

  20. Hcat says:

    It ended at two and a half times its Friday number, if you want to call that a win…….

    Yes of course this is a momentous number, no amount of inflation or front loading talk is going to diminish this. If anything its a remarkable feat of crowd control.

    psssst JS, Avatar did a solid three times Friday.

  21. Dr Wally Rises says:

    “There will be six $100 million openings before July. The record for a full year is eight.”

    Two so far this year, so I’d be interested to know what you consider one of the other four to be. Yes, Deadpool, Solo and Jurassic World are lock $100 million openers. I’m assuming that the other one that you mean is Incredibles 2? If so then I don’t think that’s a slam dunk at all. Pixar’s record weekend is $135 million for Finding Dory, a franchise that’s much more popular than The Incredibles. Monsters University may be a more apposite comparison, and I’d argue that even that franchise and it’s characters are more popular overall. MU opened at $82 million. If anything I think that Incredibles 2 might be the best movie of the Summer but a relative box office fizzle along the lines of the Cars sequels. Of course if you had another movie in mind as one of the six then apologies.

  22. BO Sock Puppet says:

    $275-300m, now that would’ve been impressive. A few mil, on the high side, of 250 (allegedly), essentially a tie with TFA. I think, it’s disappointing, and a real shame, Fiege couldn’t hit one farther, out of the park.

  23. Hcat says:

    Dr. Wally,

    To be honest I don’t see where we get two more July and beyond. Ant-Man wont get enough of a boost and I don’t see much on the horizon after that will claim 100 mil weekends. The year could conceivably end with only 5 crossing that threshold.

  24. Night Owl says:

    Well apparently I should offer my psychic services for pay to distributors because no, $250 million (now plus) didn’t surprise me in the least. Pre-2012 a $200 million opening weekend seemed impossible. Since then we’ve had SIX of them. A few more years and the “truly huge” openings will all be in the $250 million range. Frankly I would have been stunned if it had “only” opened in Jurassic World territory.

    These type of openings are products of great marketing and convincing the public something is an “event” you MUST see opening weekend. The build up was massive, the marketing was terrific, the buzz was non-stop. The signs were all there. So, no, I’m not stunned. Sorry if that’s traumatizing to anyone.

    You say no Marvel studios movie was supposed to be in Star Wars rarified neighbourhood JS? Says who? Are we talking adjusted? I mean, I agree that domestically that’s mostly true with new Star Wars (where 99% of all of Marvel’s movies are beaten by Rogue One’s domestic take, let alone the main saga) and will remain true against most Marvel stand alones. But world wide they’re pretty comparable, with the edge to Marvel in several territories. The culmination of a ten year genre saga with INSANE goodwill and popularity was always going to be a worthy challenger. And given that love or hate Last Jedi it ended with a whimper, I won’t be the least bit stunned if Episode 9 comes in below Infinity War and/or Avengers 4. Marvel has moved into the neighbourhood.

  25. lockedcut says:

    actuals came in at 257 million, looks like Klady was off by ten million.

  26. Hcat says:

    or 3.89% off while tickets where still being sold for another 8 hours.

    He is obviously DEEP STATE and should be hung rather than trusted.

  27. JSPartisan says:

    Night owl, in terms of opening weekends? Marvel Studios is not supposed to be on the same level as Star Wars. That’s obviously different now, but go back a month. Several people, who get paid for box office prognostication. Stated multiple times, that Infinity War wouldn’t break this record, and they continued into Saturday.

    I’m not shocked. I’ve been going on about this for months, but the people who actually get money for it? Didn’t see it coming, because TFA was supposed to be a once in a lifetime, ideliable moment. A moment, that the 19th movie from a recent franchise was supposed to never touch.

    And Ant-Man is wonderful, so the sequel should be a nice six to seven hundred million dollar bonus for Marvel Studios!

  28. palmtree says:

    Hcat, about that whole three times Friday business…

    Saying that Avatar did three times Friday and Avengers didn’t is a bit apples to oranges.

    Avatar had midnight screenings of $3.5m, only 5% of the whole opening weekend.

    Avengers IW had Thursday night screenings (no longer just midnight) of $39m, which is 15% of the total opening weekend.

    And since Thursday gets added to the Friday total, the Friday percentage of Avengers IW’s weekend total is being heavily inflated. What used to be only midnight showings are now expanded to almost half a day of Thursday screenings and thus more frontloading.

    So if Avatar had had a comparable number of Thursday showings before its opening Friday, it also would not have done three times that Friday, making this metric unfair.

    But I’d imagine studios are much happier having a bigger Thursday night and a bigger weekend overall than merely having a better Friday-to-weekend ratio.

  29. EtGuild2 says:

    DP, BLACK PANTHER topped LAST JEDI this weekend. They just didn’t update international numbers till today. Only $8 million to go to catch DEATHLY HALLOWS. Seems like a foregone conclusion.

    Also, glad to see Mojo added a QUIET PLACE vs GET OUT head-to-head. Catching GO still isn’t a foregone conclusion as it averaged -28% drops from weekends 5-10 and it shaved off over a quarter of QUIET PLACE’s lead in a single week.

  30. Glamourboy says:

    Movieman, apparently Streep is not in much of the movie…she’s not in the trailers and it seems that some part of the story is in flashback and her character is played by someone else….and in the present day of the story (SPOILER ALERT)…apparently her character dies. Check out this chart that shows the reactions from exhibitors to the summer movies and you can find Mamma Mia 2 in the bottom 4.

  31. Glamourboy says:

    Actually, that chart isn’t just for summer movies but all the upcoming movies that had presentations

  32. EtGuild2 says:

    I’ve gotten an interesting reaction from black female friends upon informing them that Zoe Saldana, because of this movie, won’t just be the top grossing actress of color ever, but the second highest grossing actress ever, with a clear path to a practically untoppable #1 assuming the AVATAR sequels finally drop.

    I then make clear that that the franchise era of repeat supporting players has made these stats more meaningless than they ever were before, but as Saldana is not particularly well-liked within the black community (see: Nina, and the fact she’s typically cast as the only black woman in mainstream Hollywood fare), it’s still a strange thing to note and I feel that she deserves some kind of recognition for crashing the party.

  33. movieman says:

    Glamour- Lily James plays a younger version of Streep’s character. But I know that I saw Streep in the trailer so she’s definitely in the movie. (She’s listed third on IMDB’s cast scroll.)
    Can’t blame exhibitors for being blasé about a 10-year-later sequel to a terrible (if inexplicably popular) movie.
    But considering how well another meh musical did this past Xmas, I wouldn’t bet against “Mamma 2″ vastly exceeding b.o. projections.

    Speaking of (infinitely more promising) musicals, I spoke w/ a WB rep who saw a rough cut of the Bradley/GaGa “Star is Born” late last year (!) and said that it was fantastic. She told me the release delay was to fine tune the hype-buzz/awards machine.

  34. Hcat says:

    but the original Mamma was based on a beloved musical, this one just reeks of cash in, and I would think, and I can’t believe I am writing this based on how much I hated the original, this audience might be a little more discerning. It Pacific Rim for a different demo.

    Palm tree the 2.5 post was in jest there is no way this is a disappointment but you made strong points regardless. It’s a shame that for all the box office that Zoe has pulled only maybe 15 percent of it was with her natural skin color.

  35. Night Owl says:

    ETGuild2, I agree it really is a meaningless stat given that concept is king. I too hadn’t realized Zoe Saldana was so disliked by many but then again, I never gave her much thought. The truth is every single one of her big movies would have made the same money if someone else had played her role. Not just in her case, with many of the stars who are named in that “top grossing” group. Scarlett Johannsessn is going to be in that group for actresses but again, means nothing to her actual impact when 99% of that is Marvel. Does anyone honestly think Avengers would have failed if Emily Blunt had played Widow? Top total box office these days has very little to do with being an opener movie star.

  36. Non-Revisionist says:

    That Variety article doesn’t appear to be based on actual responses from exhibitors who were at CinemaCon–or, if it is, it doesn’t reflect what I heard from a number of exhibitors and other attendees. People loved the Mamma Mia piece, and went crazy when Cher came out.

  37. spassky says:

    “or 3.89% off while tickets where still being sold for another 8 hours.

    He is obviously DEEP STATE and should be hung rather than trusted.”

    @HCAT: That is the most I have laughed on this blog.

  38. leahnz says:

    gotta say, it’s freaky that in the weekend you turn up at the main commercial cineplex in the city and look at the board, out of the 10 theatres available, every session, every hour, every show is avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers, avengers down the board…. (in all but #8 — the tiniest shithouse one at the back — still showing ‘quiet place’ in the afternoon and not even listed) what shall we see, peeps, maybe ‘the avengers’? i mean these massive totals aren’t really a shock when you’ve got the corner on the market, there’s not really any choice, it’s engineered by the bean- counters and they’re doing a bang-up job

  39. JSPartisan says:

    But that in no way represents reality. The main reason why this level of money is available, is there are these 10 to 20 screen theaters. Where they are not showing Avengers on every screen. Marvel Studios didn’t even pull that shit Star Wars did with the Imax screens.

    The reason why this happened, are fans. Fans who have been given films over ten years that payoff, and mean something to people. It’s not nefarious. It’s just doing the work, that makes people care… Rather you get it or not.

  40. leahnz says:

    i don’t really understand that first paragraph js — and tbh i don’t give a sparrow’s fart about the avengers infinity bore 1 (the contrived shitshow that was ‘civil war’ put the final nail in that coffin for me, and i haven’t seen ‘infinity’, i went to see ‘a quiet place’ with friends for my second watch instead; if i’m gonna part with my meticulously hoarded cash i’d rather support film-making that tries to expand and elevate the form) — but clearly it’s gonna be a long week if anyone dares to criticise the marvel

    ETA infinity bore (as expected) kicked ‘a quiet place’ off the titan XE screen at the same multiplex

  41. Hcat says:

    Not a big fan of Cooper but the early word on Star is Born has me very excited. Wish they kept it as a summer release, to both have something to watch and to give it and Bohemian Rhapsody a little breathing room from each other.

    Weird that I never thought of Star is Born as a perennial story that would be told again and again to new generations (like Kong, and apparently Planet of the Apes now), but that looks to be the case (if this connects can we expect another Love Affair or Anna and the King of Siam?).

    Curious what has been in development longer, Star or Don Quixote.

  42. JSPartisan says:

    Leah, there are multiplexes, they have a lot of screens, and so more than one movie can play in one multiplex. That’s not that confusing, but you seem to think a Quiet Places should still be on a Imax type Screen. The weekend that Infinity War comes out. That’s funny. But not as funny as your sentence about A Quiet Place elevating the form. Maybe movie one (nope, that’s Infinity War) but come back to me after A Quiet Plave Five.

  43. Hcat says:

    I think the issue is that the whole idea of a multiplex is to play more than two movies at a time. Putting aside the fact that not enough smaller films get a chance at a large audience, now the midlevels are being squeezed out for the weekend as well. Hopefully this is not a trend that will be chased with each large release taking half the screens in an attempt to not turn anyone away.

    I am curious about what Leah said about Place trying to elevate the form, when it hit big I finally got around to watching The Hollars and that was indie filmmaking 101 hitting every beat you expected right when you expected it. The cast elevated the material but can’t say that Krasinski held much promise as a filmmaker. So when he turned to horror I thought that might be a decent fit since it is a more forgiving genre for delivering what is expected. But is Place more than a well crafted creepy thriller (not that being that would be any type of criticism).

  44. Stella's Boy says:

    The multiplex I go to regularly has 12 screens. Only five movies are playing there right now. That is highly unusual and kind of a bummer. I think that’s what leah is getting at (though definitely not trying to put words in your mouth). Typically they have arthouse fare on a couple screens, or midlevel stuff, both (I saw Thoroughbreds there recently for example). But not right now. Of those five movies, some are sharing a screen with another movie. So Infinity War is on more than half the screens right now. I don’t mean this as criticism of Infinity War itself. I agree with hcat in that I hope it’s not a trend that happens every time there’s a large release.

  45. JSPartisan says:

    Every theater in my area are playing, bare minimum, nine movies and up. It apparently depends on where you live. I’m a regal town, so there you go.

  46. Hcat says:

    Looking at Mojo, the top twenty lost 8992 screens this weekend while only Avengers opened and Ramsey and for some reason Troopers added under a hundred. This leaves about 4381 additional screens Infinity took up real estate on. It will be interesting to see if some of these films reexpand next weekend (or even today) or if they just take the hit.

  47. palmtree says:

    No other major film opened this past weekend in an effort to avoid the Avengers and give it a wide berth. They did that because they knew demand for this movie would be high. And it is. So yeah, it’s on a lot of screens.

    If demand wasn’t high, it wouldn’t matter how many screens you put it in; all of them would be empty.

  48. Ray Pride says:

    The more screens it’s on on opening weekend, the higher the percentage of gross against the Disney-stiff guarantee.

  49. palmtree says:

    More theaters doesn’t automatically equal more demand. Despicable Me 3 opened in even more theaters yet only received a $15,993 per theater average.

    Regardless of Disney’s crazy exhibition terms, the fact remains that Avengers had a $57,599 per theater average. It’s a number that rivals a lot of big independent limited releases.

    Yes, I understand theater count doesn’t equal screen count. But even if it took filling up 10 screens at a multiplex to get to that number, it still requires people showing up. Audiences are clearly very comfortable staying home when a movie doesn’t interest them.

  50. Stella's Boy says:

    My son saw it Sunday morning with two friends and a friend’s dad. The dad said the theater wasn’t even close to full. They got good seats a few minutes before showtime. So maybe it doesn’t need to be on 7 or 8 screens in a 12-screen theater. Remember when there was counter-programming on the same weekend as a big-budget event movie? Are those days long gone? Were all the attempts failures?

  51. JSPartisan says:

    SB, the exhibitors were complaining about that very thing. It seems to come down to China, and the studios not wanting to do the work of making that counter programming. I understand the importance of China, but it’s like the studios do not grasp how much money is being left on the table by not pushing smaller movies in this country. They also get a better cut, but everyone wants to be Disney. Watch Disney turn Fox into what the exhibitors want, so they can own another part of the film business… Smaller films.

  52. Stella's Boy says:

    Interesting JS. I don’t doubt the importance of certain international markets. Does it have anything to do with counterprogramming attempts always coming up short at the box office, resulting in the studios not even trying anymore? Do you think the right movie could find a decent audience opening against something like Infinity War?

  53. Hcat says:

    The smaller film problem is marketing, if you make a 20 million movie you still need to spend 30 or so to market it (right, I am just pulling the number out) so that you cant break even before ancillaries. So everything has to be able to play in the foreign markets as well. American films have become a niche market.

    But there are still giant success stories with smaller films, lets not forget A Quiet Place is a ‘smaller film.’

    I do not get how after the success of the apparently terrible Fifty Shades how there has not been a resurgence in the sexy thriller. You want to counter program against Avengers drop a Big Easy/Body Heat into the mix. Hell I would settle for a Gere-Basinger level thriller.

  54. JSPartisan says:

    SB, maybe not a Mavrel Studios or Star Wars movie, but there are lesser blockbusters, that could deal with some competition. Like HC stated, the marketing is what throws things off, but do they need to do anymore than Blumhouse or Netflix?

    It just seems weird that every other country still makes smaller regional films, but the studios seemingly have decided being successful here and in the EU, isnt worth spending the money. It’s just bizarre, because like we all say… Every studio cannot be Disney. There’s only so much IP in the world, but they all keep trying to be the mouse house.

  55. Bulldog says:

    Sexy is so hard to do. No pun intended. There is a really fine line between truly sexy and coming across as cheap soft porn. Shades was taken from probably the most buzzy sexual novel in recent years. Even people who hadn’t read the books knew about them. So less of a gamble with something with a built in fanbase.

  56. EtGuild2 says:

    Those INFINITY WAR Monday international numbers tho. Holy cow. And that BLACK PANTHER domestic gross keeps going. I assumed a lot of its performance this weekend was due to sell-out screens of INFINITY WAR but its -6% week-over-week Monday drop says otherwise.

  57. JSPartisan says:

    Ethan, do you think Infinity War makes it to a billion by next weekend?

  58. movieman says:

    Hcat- And don’t forget the “Mary Poppins” sequel (another musical) opening at Christmas.

    Gee. You’d almost swear it was 1968 all over again when “Oliver!,” “Funny Girl,” “Finian’s Rainbow,” “Star!” and “Chitty, Chitty, Bang, Bang” opened within a span of a few months. (Two musicals with exclamation points at the end of their title? So groovy.)
    Of course, back in the day of platforming and roadshows, most of the country (e.g., my home town) wouldn’t see those movies until 1969.

  59. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS I’d go with $1.1 billion. Let’s be conservative and say it drops like ULTRON at 59.4% domestically. That’s $107M. Then let’s be really conservative with the rest of the weekdays and say it does $15-16M per day. That gets it to $880M. Then say it’s on par with ULTRON’s Russia debut for $895. That means it needs $205M in the rest of the international marketplace over 6 days. It did $60M on Monday, in one day, so it would need to average $35M in those six. Again, all this is conservative, so beating CIVIL WAR WW by weekends end seems 50/50. On the high end, beating IRON MAN 3’s $1.214B cume isn’t impossible.

    Cume wise worldwide, beating AVENGERS 1 for #5 all-time is a given, while #4 JW is likely, #3, FORCE AWAKENS….only time will tell. TFA showed its domestic muscle today in surging past INFINITY WAY in daily comps, and it seems likely INFINITY will come -$200 million shy of it domestically.

  60. JSPartisan says:

    If it drops like Ultron. There’s problems. Lots and lots of freaking problems. It’s probably not a 2bn dollar film, but it’s probably going to exist in it’s own neighborhood.

  61. Hcat says:

    Disney has averaged just a hair under 10 million dollars domestically every day so far this year. Those are the problems to have.

    Movieman, if I was drawing comparisons than Mamma Mia is going to be the Star! of the upcoming batch.

    Of course 67 through 69 is when the musicals were getting too large and collapsing under their own weight, I keep waiting for some modern day equivalent but it never comes.

  62. leahnz says:

    “Remember when there was counter-programming on the same weekend as a big-budget event movie?”

    yeah this is basically what i was getting at; at our city multiplex 9 out of 10 theatres on the weekend during the afternoon/evening sessions were showing ‘avengers’ so the massive opening weekend BO is hardly surprising when there is literally no other option. i don’t know if it’s this bad elsewhere, i can’t speak to that. looks like a corner on the market and clearing the decks for the bean-counters to me. not that long ago the first of GR’s ‘Sherlock holmes’ flicks made a killing as counter-programming for ‘avatar’ and I’m sure there must be other recent examples; this clearing of the decks for one big flick seems new.

    re ‘a quiet place’ and elevating the form:
    i appreciate when movies in this current climate take a risk and step a little outside the box, such as the layer of social commentary on racism/the exploitation of black men’s bodies for white amusement that elevates the pop psych thriller/horror sensibility of ‘get out’, or the quite unusual form of staging a thriller/alien invasion flick with virtually no dialogue using silence and ‘hush’ as a main feature to tell a story and build tension; as a film-making choice and device i think this unusual conceptualisation and its execution elevates the material above the middling and mundane.

  63. leahnz says:

    i was going to say and spaced it re counterprogramming and the seeming demise of the mid-level thriller/action flick once such an enjoyable staple of cinema: this is when the likes of tony scott is sorely missed, good solid well-staged film-making with a bit of signature flair and bravado, i think he’s actually left a gap that has not been filled

  64. amblinman says:

    “this is when the likes of tony scott is sorely missed, good solid well-staged film-making with a bit of signature flair and bravado, i think he’s actually left a gap that has not been filled”

    I’ve brought this up before. There is no Tony Scott, Harold Becker, or Taylor Hackford anymore. Or maybe it’s more that the movies those guys made just don’t exist. We’ve probably gotten too savvy as a society for courtroom dramas (too many legal experts on too many news channels) but no one wants to see a cop-chases-a-serial-killer movie anymore? How about something like “Someone To Watch Over Me” but recast with different genders/sexual dynamics? Sea Of Love with a female lead? (I’m not proposing remakes, but similar genre stuff. It’s not like those movies were breaking new ground.)

    Anyway, I also really miss mid-level studio thrillers and action movies. Action movies are basically dead as we knew them. It seems any competent director is snatched up by Marvel now, which, good for them, bad for us.

  65. palmtree says:

    “opening weekend BO is hardly surprising when there is literally no other option.”

    We always talk about how there’s so much competition now with streaming. People are content to stay home. But somehow if Avengers is on every screen, now people have “no other options”? Yes, it’s a bit monopolistic to put it on every screen. But they’re only doing it because they know people are showing up specifically to see this.

    Calling it the work of bean counters is pretty simplistic. Plenty of bean-counter approved movies have completely tanked, bombed, and flopped.

    And honestly, I used to write off the whole Marvel universe as being a bunch of invincible people having pre-ordained victories. But then I started watching them and realized it was more than that. Sure, it’s still uber-commercial, but the bond you form with the characters is not merely a bean counter driven phenomenon.

  66. palmtree says:

    Actually I’m looking forward to the new Skyscraper specifically because it’s a mid-size action movie in the vein of Die Hard. I mean, it’s not going to be as good as Die Hard, but hey, nothing else really is.

  67. Hcat says:

    See, that’s where things are out of control, when we look at something like Skyscraper which likely cost 100-150 million and it is now seen as mid-size.

    That was on my list for the summer as well, but it turns out to have originated at Legendary instead of just being co financed by them. After Blackhat, Warcraft, and Great Wall (haven’t ventured into Seventh Son or the new Rimmer yet) I am very weary about their ability to deliver. But ripping good trailer, and Rock is charismatic as hell as always.

  68. palmtree says:

    Other than running on that crane, none of the effects really screamed expensive CGI.

    But out of curiosity, where would you guys then place Baby Driver and the Equalizer and Taken and The Foreigner and John Wick (EDIT: and Atomic Blonde) and all the films of that ilk? Are those not mid-size action movies?

  69. EtGuild2 says:

    Hot Digitty Dog, another $60 million in international and a great domestic hold has IW at $808 million.

  70. Stella's Boy says:

    The trailer makes me think Skyscraper is a very expensive movie. It doesn’t look mid-level to me either. I would not put it in the same category as those movies palmtree. Equalizer is I believe the most expensive of those movies at $55 million. Those seem mid-size to me. Skyscraper does not. It looks fun as hell, but like a big-budget summer action extravaganza. I did a quick search for the budget but couldn’t find it. But it had to be over $100 million.

  71. Hcat says:


    The ones you mentioned were budgeted at

    John Wick 20 million (sequel 40)
    Atomic Blonde 30
    Foreigner 35
    Baby Driver 34
    Taken 25 (sequels never topped 50)
    Equalizer 55

    I would say all those were small to mid action movies. More in line with Snitch and Faster, than his current output (Jumanji was actually a bit of a bargain at 90). Skyscraper looks more in line with the 150 million White House Down. There are no fantasy elements but I can’t imagine they will bring Skyscraper in for less than they spent on the new Tomb Raider.

    I don’t know where I would draw the line exactly but once things start getting in the 80 million range it would be hard for me to call things mid size.

  72. JSPartisan says:

    There’s two trailers I watched today. One, Monsters and Men, and the other some Anna Kendrick thriller. If it were 20 years ago. They’d both possibly be studio films.

    I fully embrace what Dianey is doing, but I still can’t figure out why every single fucking studio ( and I’m cursing out of frustration ) wants to follow the same road. It’s just baffling.

  73. palmtree says:

    I can’t imagine Skyscraper’s budget going up to $150m. It seems to me the whole point of greenlighting this movie is that it can be made for less. This director hasn’t had a movie earn more than $150m (We’re the Millers did exactly that), so I’m guessing based on that fact and the trailer that Skyscraper is a scaled-down actioner meant to convey epicness via The Rock rather than sheer budget.

    In any case, I’m sold on it and hope we get more of these one-offs down the road. (edited for clarity)

  74. Stella's Boy says:

    The Rock made $20 million for Skyscraper and the director made $10 million based on the success of Central Intelligence. I can very easily imagine it cost around $150 million.

  75. palmtree says:

    Shoulda known. Just saw Uni and Legendary won the rights for this in a bidding war. Explains a lot.

  76. David Poland says:

    The whole exhibition universe was shifted to make the accordion opening possible. You can counterprogram if you have the movie that can get enough bandwidth to get anyone into the theaters. Avengers was probably on too many screens. And the per-theater count, which it is now, really doesn’t express a real average compared to any other movie, much less indie releases on a handful of screens.

  77. palmtree says:

    Yes, I even included this sentiment of screens vs. theaters in what I wrote above. And of course, being on too many screens is terrible for diversity of choices, no question.

    Yet even if per theater average isn’t a great metric, doesn’t it at least reveal something, anything at all? Or is it just that behemoths like Avengers are meaningless and only limited release averages have value?

    Because what’s the point of reporting a stat if no one takes that stat seriously? If one movie’s stat can’t be measured against any other movie, what good is it?

    Asking for a friend.

  78. Hcat says:

    It has value because not every movie opens like a blockbuster. The per theater average will be a more meaningful measurement this weekend with the release of Tully and Overboard which are likely to hold one screen per theater and open to half as many actual locations as Infinity.

  79. Stella's Boy says:

    Sorry to get off-topic but I am dying to see Ghost Stories and for some reason IFC only has it on VOD through cable providers. What is it, 2005? Why wouldn’t it be available through Amazon or Google Play? Why would they want less people to be able to see their movie?

  80. Hcat says:

    That might be a stipulation of IFCs carriage agreement with cable providers. Or just an overall strategy, AMC loses revenue with every cut cord, I can see why they would want to promote cable over streaming.

  81. JS Partisan says:

    I just want to point out, that Box Office Mojo has Infinity War dropping 55 percent. Nah. Best second week hold, and better by a lot. 130 to 140 or so.

  82. Stella's Boy says:

    Could be hcat. I watch a lot of new movies on VOD and have never encountered this before. Thought it was odd.

  83. Hcat says:

    JS, what percentage are you thinking? I would think a 50% drop would be remarkably impressive given the size of the launch.

    Stella, do you have to pay a rental price for those or are they part of a subscription.

  84. Stella's Boy says:

    Can’t hurt that it has no real competition this weekend. That makes 50% possible.

    Rental price. So recently I’ve watched stuff like Pyewacket and Mohawk. New genre movies that I think received limited theatrical releases the same day they hit VOD. I do that all the time. Figured Ghost Stories would be the same, but no dice.

  85. JS Partisan says:

    HC, like 48 percent seems reasonable. I just don’t see it playing like everything else. It may not be a 2bn film, but it’s its own special thing.

    Also, those Solo tracking numbers seem to be treating Deadpool 2 like it’s going be one and done.

  86. Hcat says:

    Who knows what the tracking questions are like, or if they take into account what opens a weekend before. Plus Solo has a big fat extra quadrant to sell tickets to.

    I think I read that Deadpool was looking at 100 plus (whatever happened with those reports of disastrous test screenings? Haven’t heard anything since). The Mem day weekend should be able to hold a 60 million holdover from Pool and a 150 three day from Han and what will likely be 40 million for Infinity.

  87. palmtree says:

    The most recent Deadpool 2 test screening was rated higher than the original.

    It would be interesting to see the 2nd weekend drop on Avengers. Nothing is seriously challenging it, so if it was on too many screens and it loses a few, will this weekend be just the right amount then?

    Hcat, when a movie opens like a blockbuster, you can compare that stat to other similar blockbusters, I hope. Comparing it to a limited release was silly on my part, but comparing it to Despicable Me 3 wasn’t totally off, was it?

  88. Hcat says:

    Since Disney has staked off this first week in may for awhile now we have some pretty direct comparables. And yes other blockbusters though DM3 was a 4th of July weekend right? Maybe a Wed release on top of it, that always mucks things up.

    I looked back on the othe weekends with the other monster releases. Panther and TFA. So TFA opened to just a bit less than infinity and had two counter programmers open as well but the overall box office was identical, so unless my reasoning is off, Avengers playing in half the theaters didn’t necessarily starve the rest of the market. Still don’t want to see that as a trend though.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4