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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by The Klady Sequel We Didn’t Know Was Wanted

Friday Estimates 2018-04-21 at 9.54.30 AM

Another weekend, another question about the effectiveness of tracking for estimating opening weekends.

Tracking is not designed to be an accurate reflector of the weekend box office to come, I will say for the millionth time.. When it is used that way, either by the trackers and the distributors, it is abuse, not the intended purpose.

You can learn from looking at the numbers that come to pass and the tracking numbers that came before them. But as a tool to estimate opening weekends, there are more circumstances in which tracking cannot be counted on for that specific thing than there are those in which the numbers align.

I was about to write, “This weekend,” when the fact is that we still  know only the Friday numbers. This is what I am talking about: terrible, lazy habits of stating guesses as fact.

With two new films in the Top 3, here is what we know about the weekend number on those three films after Friday. A Quiet Place should end up between $16.8-$17.5 million. This is after two weekends of information: we know it bumps on Saturday (couples are going) and drops consistently on Sunday.

Super Troopers 2 is a happy surprise. Sixteen years ago, Searchlight was wide-eyed about the original and it looked like a franchise launch. But although it was profitable, the gross was not spectacular and small issues got in the way of a sequel. Instead we got Club Dread, which flopped and deeply wounded the Broken Lizard brand. Then Jay Chandrasekhar was taken on by Warner Bros and a Dukes of Hazzard and a Beerfest later, he was a television director and Broken Lizard was comatose.

But in the spirit of Blumhouse, Broken Lizard crowdfunded a chunk of a low budget and got back together with Searchlight. They have a low-end success, but a true one. Even if the bottom drops out – and everyone is only guessing whether it might – a $15 million opening is a surprise and a win, even more so with a smartly cautious 2038 theater count.

And what if (gulp!) it catches on and finds a bigger audience than the BL Cult?

There is another lesson. If Searchlight didn’t own and then exercise their rights to this sequel, it would have wound up on Netflix. You can bet Netflix spent last night trying to find out what the Broken Lizard commitments are going forward. They would be a cheap and proper complement to their Sandler franchise. And you can bet that Disney wants them on their OTT in a couple of years. But instead, with very low risk, Searchlight adds more than $10 million to the profit column of their spreadsheet, which is not nothing.

As for I Feel Pretty… STX got sucked into the Amy Schumer-is-not-really-a-movie star trendline and didn’t fight to overcome it. Of the dozens I have told about Michelle Williams’ brilliant performance in the film, one even knew she was in the movie. Looking at the trailer again (Williams has two quick shots and a “wow”), I was struck by how the pitch, like the film, missed the opportunity completely. The film makes fun of Schumer until she has some level of comeback at the end. But their idea of the movie was a universality of how women who are anything less than model perfect are overly self-critical… and how even those who are model-perfect do the same. Even in the trailer, other women mock Schumer for feeling good about herself. This movie has the same problems that I anticipated when I saw that Schumer had become connected to the wannabe Barbie movie franchise.

(I just erased multiple paragraphs because of a surety that I would be attacked for mansplaining… just not worth it. But it is dead wrong that I should be self-censoring. My silence is not your progress.)

Rampage is, as expected, all about the international. But even as it passes $200m worldwide this weekend, there is a danger of red ink. Ready Player One, which has 200 of its $500 million coming from China is only just into the black (depending on what Spielberg is getting and from what pot).

A reminder: Chinese dollars are worth half of what other theatrical dollars are worth to the distributor. So the true China adjusted gross for Ready Player One is about $400 million worldwide. And even with some big markets to open, Rampage is “really” at $175 million.

The arthouse opener of the weekend is IFC’s Ghost Stories, with over $10,000 in a single haunting.

68 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Klady Sequel We Didn’t Know Was Wanted”

  1. JSPartisan says:

    And next week, one movie will make more than the entire top ten in a day. Funny how these things work, but here’s hoping Super Troopers wins the weekend. It would be a nice little story.

  2. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’ve been taking a lot of shit this week (and much longer) because I have never found Super Troopers funny and all my friends were psyched for the sequel. It is what it is but yea, good for them. The film was partly crowdfunded, right? BEERFEST is the only Broken Lizard movie I’ve ever liked. But what do I know.

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    It will be interesting to see if Infinity Wars ends up being responsible for Panther having a significant drop off. These weekend holds have been remarkable thus far with what seems to be lowest weekend to weekend drop in its run thus far. If Disney had actually toyed with the idea of a soft rerelease this weekend as a buildup, I believed it would have paid off.

  4. Stella's Boy says:

    Not a big Super Troopers fan either. Can’t believe there’s that much demand for part two.

    Didn’t like A Quiet Place all that much. It’s fine. Has its moments. But I didn’t care about the characters at all. It’s never scary or suspenseful. CGI isn’t great and aliens nothing special. I’m a parent and still didn’t find it moving. The couple is stupid too. Really stupid. I uexpected a lot more based on hype. Surprised it has connected with viewers this much.

  5. movieman says:

    I liked “I Feel Pretty.” Shoot me.
    The first 20 minutes are kind of rough, but once Schumer has her gym accident things perk up and it hums merrily along until a satisfying wrap-up.
    Yes, Williams is terrific. So nice to see her shake off her angsty Method persona with a laugh-out-loud supporting turn. (I didn’t even know she had a sense of humor.)
    For Schumer, it seemed like a quasi-comeback after the formulaic, coulda-starred-anyone “Snatched.”
    Could hang on–at least until “Life of the Party” opens next month–with decent WOM.

    Finally caught up w/ “Pacific Rim 2″ at a bargain house.
    Pure unmitigated shite.
    (And I love the del Toro original.)
    Literally found it excruciating to sit through.

    Does anyone know whether Focus is really planning a wide (i.e., more than 2,000 screen) break on the 4th for “Tully”? For the life of me, I can’t remember the last Focus movie to open “wide” right out of the gate.

  6. Stella's Boy says:

    Atomic Blonde opened wide last year. And yeah Pacific Rim 2 is pretty bad though my kid loved it.

  7. Sideshow Bill says:

    My girlfriend and I were just talking about I Feel Pretty. We’re getting drunk in a hotel room before her company work banquet but I can say with a clear head I still like Schumer. I think she’s funny, charming and yes attractive. I hope she hangs on and finds a niche.

  8. JSPartisan says:

    Super Troopers is just one of those movies, that somehow aired on countless networks. The film got around, and here we are with them making some decent money.

    Outside of that, Amy Sxhumer can exit stage left. She has millions, but she’s definitely early 2010s and not late 2010s. However, she has a great TV role in her. If.she wants to TV.

    Finally, I can’t wait for next weekend, because it’s going to be nuts. Records should be dropping like flies.

  9. movieman says:

    I’d forgotten about “Atomic Blonde,” SB. Probably because it didn’t have the usual “awards consideration” Focus aura.
    “Tully” does seem more “Zookeeper’s Wife” or “Darkest Hour” than “Atomic” in the Focus canon, despite both starring Charlize Theon.
    Hope it succeeds against all odds. I’m really pulling for Jason Reitman.

    Does anybody know what happened to the movie Schumer was cowriting w/ Jennifer Lawrence? That seemed to vanish into the ether.

  10. Stella's Boy says:

    I am pulling for Tully as well. Big fan of Young Adult. It looks very promising.

  11. movieman says:

    And Mackenzie Davis! Big fan ever since “Halt and Catch Fire.”

  12. palmtree says:

    What did it for me with Schumer was all the joke stealing. I do like what she brings comedically, but it’s hard to shake the idea that she got to where she is through plagiarism. I will support her work if it’s good, but I’m less enthusiastic than I once was.

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    DP, SUPER TROOPERS 2 was a massive crowdfunding endeavor, nearly unheard of, so the analysis that it will quickly drop-off is warranted despite poor tracking. A crap ton of people contributed to the release, and past has been prologue when it comes to crowd-funding opening drops so far. Still, $35-40 million is a massive success.

    @JS, why would Schumer exit when she’s the only woman who consistently opens comedies over $15 million in an era where the genre is really (REALLY) suffering? Not a fan, at all, but when you’re the most successful at what you do in Hollywood, that isn’t usually a calling for TV. The idea that she’s now “earned” TV overshooting her genre is a little weird.

    On INFINITY WAR, moderately excited. The hiding seems understandable given 1-2 franchise leaders probably die in the movie, but on the flipside, the thing could suck, like ULTRON.

  14. JSPartisan says:

    Ethan, 15m openings aren’t what they used to be, and you missed the point about TV. Film, is probably going to try to keep her in this role as long as possible. TV, is where she could flourish, because as an actor? Schumer is really engaging, and probably has an amazing dramatic performance in her, that she probably will never get from film.

    Also, Ultron sucked, because Whedon couldn’t delegate. The Russos, know how to work in that world. Seriously. It’s beating TFA’s weekend, it’s going to outgross Ultron in a week. If it continues to work like these films have worked the last two years. 1.8bn.is really doable. It’s funny that you think it’s going to suck like Ultron. I mean, that would be some epic fumbling the likes of which we haven’t seen in like four months .

  15. Bulldog68 says:

    EtGuild, I think you are forgetting Melissa McArthy.

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    @JS, but we’re looking at box office results. What about this result furthers a TV career? Schumer consistently overshoots tracking and makes a profit. If it had met tracking, then would be the time to call it a day and move to TV.

    Beating TFA is impressive. But “The Russos are better delegators” argument is natch, because this thing is unseen. I hope it holds together, I really do, but we have no idea.

    @Bulldog, good call.

  17. JSPartisan says:

    Ethan, you.can just tell with these things. The premiere is tonight, so let’s all get ready for the social media resdtios! Woo!

  18. Stella's Boy says:

    Was it known that Ultron was a stinker? Did people still rave on social media after the premiere screening?

  19. Glamourboy says:

    JS, something I don’t think you understand is that, for actors, there is a big divide between TV and film–TV actors dream of escaping to film. I am meeting with actors on a project right now and my agency is having me meet with lots of TV actors and they are desperate to get out of the TV hole…even though this is known as another golden age of TV…it is really hard for them to make the transition. I find when they do, they aren’t anxious to come back.

  20. JSPartisan says:

    GB, I totally understand, but Schumer seems to have blown her movie making capital. She’s a good actress though, so maybe TV is where she ends up doing something that’s astounding?

    How many billions are being spent on TV? Tens of billions, and they want out? That’s weird, but maybe people like slower production schedules? Can’t blame them, but there’s so much TV being made over the next decade. I just find it weird.

    SB, by that Monday… Yeah.

  21. Bulldog68 says:

    I call fucking bullshit on your “schumer should be on tv” statement. Outside of Marvel, what’s Chris Evans ever opened? How about Chris Hemsworth? One $56m opening with Snow White and then the sequel opened to $19m. He has no claim on the Ghostbusters opening. Schumer has had a $30m, $19.5m, and $16m opening without a franchise, previously popular material, and all on the strength of her face on the poster. 80% of the male Avengers haven’t done that shit and no one saying they should be relegated to TV.

  22. JSPartisan says:

    You are calling bs, on something I didn’t write. Re-read it, then yell at me :D! I stated I like her as an actress and that she could maybe find something on TV, that doesn’t typecast her in just funny parts. Again, multiple platforms are spending BILLIONS on TV, and stating someone could find a more dramatic role on TV is not insane. It’s just a statement.

    Oh yeah… Who brought up the Avengers? I’ll just point at Jeremy Renner, and bid you a good evening.

  23. Bulldog68 says:

    You indicated Schumer has blown her movie making capital. That’s what I was responding to. This is only her 3rd movie. Trainwreck made $140m on a $35m budget, Snatchec made $60m on a $42m budget. I’ll say her ledger is still good. How many kicks of the can will Hollywood give to white males before they decide to relegate them to TV.

  24. palmtree says:

    I think the larger point is that being relegated to TV isn’t such a bad thing anymore. I get that actors want to go into movies, but in terms of livelihood, artistic expression and cultural impact, a lot of times TV offers something far more sustainable and fulfilling.

    Schumer has already done plenty of TV from stand-up specials to her own show on Comedy Central. She seemingly graduated to film, but I think she can do more than just retreads of her previous material (whether it was hers or not). Honestly, some of her TV sketches are really filmic, including one episode shot entirely as an homage to Kramer’s 12 Angry Men. If she can claim some auteur status the way Peele and Krasinski have managed, then I think her film career has a chance.

  25. Hcat says:

    ‘she could maybe find something on TV, that doesn’t typecast her in just funny parts’

    I would think an actress would be able to find more variation in films instead of having to stick with the same character for years at a time on a television show.
    Though since seasons have gotten to be so short it is possible that she tosses off ten episodes of a drama and then pops back into a stand up special and film.

    Mostly I don’t think Pretty in any way knocks her out of starring in films, plus even if stardom doesn’t work out there is still a lot of satisfying work that people like Sarah Silverman and Kristin Wiig have been doing in the indie world.

    And what Palmtree wrote about grabbing auteur credit is a great strategy. It is telling that her big hit is the one she wrote herself, she might do better saying her own jokes as opposed to picking up projects from others.

  26. Bulldog says:

    My comment was alluding to the fact that we’re talking about Schumer needing to have some kind of course correction after just three movies, when Jake Gylenhal, Taylor Kitsch, Chris Evans/Hemsworth/Pine, Micheal Fassbender, Ryan Gosling, Christian Bale and many others, when they have not proven they can open a thing but will still keep getting numerous shots at big budget extravanganza and not be told they should be “relegated” to TV.

  27. JSPartisan says:

    BD, did I wake up this morning owning a studio? No? Then guess what? I can say she’s through as has been since Snatched. I still dig her as an actress and hope she doesn’t vanish. I want her to do a drama, and get a fucking Emmy. This isn’t good enough for your girl, so you’re throwing out Avengers and white dudes. Guess what? Ryan Gosling isn’t on fire either, and his ass should do TV as well. Taylor Kitsch’s best work was an HBO movie, and he should probably do TV again. Also, Christian Bale isn’t in those dudes class. Come.on.

    What’s funny about your whole take? Melissa McCarthy is still a bigger movie star than Schumer, but at the start of her film career. She was still doing a sitcom, liked doing the sitcom, and was bummed when they cancelled it. Seriously. Of all the things that get some of you upset. I had no idea wishing Emmy glory for Schumer would be a bridge too far. How utterly ridiculous.

  28. Bulldog68 says:

    That’s some Trumpian like spin JS. We’re not arguing the merits of whether TV is a rewarding or respectable medium for Schumer. The argument is whether after three movies it should be adjudged that she should no looker be operating on the big screen due to her perceived lack of box office power. Your statement if taken at face value means that if you were running things you’d be sending TV projects her way because she is “through “ as a movie star. Through? After three movies? I brought up all those white guys because no one was giving up on them when their movies not attached to powerfull franchises were underperforming or outright bombing. They are being given chance after chance to succeed.

  29. Stella's Boy says:

    A $16 million opening weekend against a $32 million budget seems pretty solid, but I was interested in audience response to I Feel Pretty. The under-18 set gave it an A+ Cinemascore grade and it got an A from those under 25. So that’s also pretty solid. There’s an audience out there that likes her, and it seems too early to declare that she should drop movies for TV.

  30. JSPartisan says:

    SB, same budget for Trainwreck? Pulled in 100 million more. It’s insane to state Schumer is on the same level of popularity that she was. That’s a precipitous decline. It’s good, but not great.

    BD, stop the trump bullshit. You’re the one who brought up the Avengers, then you brought up that list of dudes. Again. Schumer’s biggest fan, how is stating wanting her to WIN AN EMMY A BAD THING? You think, that I want to run her out of the business, when I just want to see her have an opportunity to do something else that shows her talent off. Again, it’s an innocuous comment that got you bent out of shape. Sorry, but haven’t you given me crap for such things?

  31. Stella's Boy says:

    Sure it’s a decline no doubt. But why would good, not great mean that she should leave movies behind? Isn’t that jumping the gun a bit?

  32. Hcat says:

    Sixteen is actually pretty good for this distributer, the 45 that Snatched grabbed was right in line with what other Fox comedies like Mike and Dave and Why Him were pulling (and did head and shoulders above Keeping Up With the Jones), and Trainwreck had the Apatow brand and quite a supporting cast backing it up.

    I can’t see dismissing a current project based on the fact that it didn’t match a career best. The perception is simply twisted since the career best was also her debut.

  33. JSPartisan says:

    One; I’m not writing the narrative. It’s in the world, but that’s still a drop-off.

    Two: I’m not stating she should leave movies. I’m stating she’s a really good actress… Not comedianne…. But actress. When did a premiere drama become a step down? Are you three going to flip your shit over Amy Adam’s doing a HBO series? AMY ADAMS? Again. It’s mind boggling to me, that this comment set you guys off.

    Three: we are about to have some very exciting box office this weekend, and I look forward to you three crapping all over it :D.

    Four: I like you three, but it’s just an opinion. God forbid this was a sports blog. Our NFL draft arguments would be insane.

  34. Bulldog says:

    One: You stated the narrative here and agreed with it so I’m calling YOU on it. I hadn’t seen it anywhere else, which does not mean that it doesn’t exist, just that I hadn’t seen it.

    Two: “I’m not stating she should leave movies.” Yeah you did. You said she’s “Through”. That’s literally stating she should leave movies.

    Three: I don’t crap over Marvel numbers. I’ve stated categorically when they’re good that they are and was recently in awe at the staying power of the Panther.

    Four: Yes it’s only an opinion but lets just get a definitive answer and end it. Do you think she should be in the movie making business or not, based on the box office results of just three movies? Yes or No?

  35. Hcat says:

    Oh I am entirely flipping my shit over Amy Adams doing television. Its a travesty, a complete failure of Hollywood that they are not able to keep her in interesting projects. Witherspoon as well, absolute negligence.

    Call me old fashioned but television is for newcomers working their way up, Mark Harmons who couldn’t sustain a movie career and Broadway performers nesting their retirement egg (we miss you Mr. Orbach). Someone like Adams who is in their prime years and is coming off a sizable hit with Arrival doing a miniseries is crap.. They were able to get Gone Girl edited to a tight 2.5 hours, is Sharp Objects so much more complex of a plot that it has to take four or six? Does a studio not have the 30 million to drop on this best seller with a bankable actress? After the one two punch of Gone Girl and Wild how did Fox let Witherspoon slip to HBO? It was incredibly short sighted if not sexist and ageist.

    Really whats the use of her being Lois Lane if being in a hit of that size and then you still end up on television?

  36. Bulldog says:

    Television isn’t the ugly step sister it used to be Hcat. I don’t see Nicole Kidman stock lowering because she’s in Big Little Lies. Granted she isn’t box office, but box office isn’t everything. She still gets offered Oscar bait scripts every year.

    So Amy Adams doing a short miniseries that has the possibility of receiving accolades in that medium will do no harm, especially if it becomes a critical and ratings success. Television has become the place for some great creativity that movie studios are balking at, or that require more than 90 minutes to tell a detailed story. So I’m not belittling TV. It’s a more substantial medium now, especially as home TV has become home Cinema.

  37. Hcat says:

    True, not the end of the world, she hasn’t committed to multiple seasons (I said I was flipping my shit so I wanted the post to reflect that), but it’s still one less movie she will be making. As for time constraints, what non comedy is 90 minutes? If they could get Chinatown or the Fellowship of the Rings consumable in one sitting they should be able to do the same with Big Little Lies and Sharp Objects.

    JS, I am excited to see how big the box office goes this weekend, though Queit Place has had some decent holds :). I am more curious to see critical and fan reactions because

    A) Thor and Panther got standing ovations for breaking the mold, now that they are going back inside the box will people find it as exciting.

    B). How are they handling that cast? Longest Day had fewer speaking parts.

  38. Glamourboy says:

    The problems with Schumer lie directly in the movies….I really didn’t like her TV show…but I heard that there was great buzz on Trainwreck, the trailer was funny and there was the JA pedigree. Snatched looked horrible–I couldn’t get past Goldie Hawn looking like the Crypt Keeper with all her plastic surgery. I saw the movie on a plane and indeed, it was tedious. I can’t get myself to go see I Feel Pretty because it has bad buzz and the plot also seems familiar (Shallow Hal comes to mind.) I feel exactly the same way as i do about Melissa McCarthy–obviously talented–but I’m not going to watch a shitty movie because she can be funny–she can’t save a movie. Both of these actors need to be a lot pickier about their material.

  39. Hcat says:

    Hey does everyone remember 5 years ago when Pain and Gain opened soft in April the week before a huge Marvel movie and everyone talked about how it meant that Wahlberg was completely over and should take a job at CSI Kansas City?

    Me Neither

  40. JSPartisan says:

    And guess what? Schumer isn’t Wahlberg, and wanting her to win a EMMY isn’t wanting her to work at a CVS. If she can make a cool movie that jump-starts again, the good. Seriously. Amy Schumer doing an HBO drama is the line. That’s… I don’t know.

  41. Hcat says:

    My comment was more toward the Variety article than your comments above, I get what you and Bulldog have said about television being a viable career option that doesn’t hold the sting it once did, especially for HBO projects. And I admit it is just my preference toward the structure of film rather than television that makes me wish that people stick with film as long as humanly possible.

    What I meant is, and we will see this again with McCarthy when Life of the Party opens, is that careers are deemed sliding and movies declared failures prematurely. 100 million should not be the bar that all films are judged by. Something like Blockers which will fall right into the Uni comedy sweet spot of 60 million that Role Models, Baby Mamma, The Boss all hit shouldn’t be seen as a miss because it didn’t make Girl Trip money. A trade paper should be able to recognize what’s an outlier and what’s a break even prospect. Given the date, the size of the movie, and the size of the distributer, I Feel Pretty does not belong in the loss column (at least not yet).

  42. Bulldog says:

    “And guess what? Schumer isn’t Wahlberg,”
    My point JS, is not whether she is Wahlberg or not, it’s that Wahlberg was given several kicks of the can to become what he is. So will she be given the same amount of chances to become Wahlberg. Get It.

    Hemsworth made Blackhat, Heart of the Sea, Rush, and upcoming he has another Star Trek, and Men in Black. Franchises all of them. His top movie not based on previous material is $45m. That may equal to lowest box office Schumer has, which is where this movie may top out at. Why aren’t there the same calls that he’through” and should stick to playing Thor and Cpt Kirk, otherwise, do some TV projects to reinvent yourself. I just hate the double standard.

    I’m not drawing a line on Schumer doing an HBO drama. I think she deserves to do that on her terms and not because her $32m broke even. Blackhat made $8m for fuck sake. Winter’s War made more than $100m less than it’s prequel domestically. And that’s just two years ago when he is known as Thor.

  43. Hcat says:

    and not for nothing, Schumer already has an Emmy on her shelf.

  44. JSPartisan says:

    Writing not performing.

    BD, but read above. This narrative is out there, but I’d love for her to do something different. I think she has the chops.

    Nevertheless, how do you feel about Forbes releasing all of the Infinity War spoilers?

  45. Bulldog68 says:

    I’m never a fan of releasing spoilers. Did they have a massive Spoiler Alert warning with it? But what’s the point of doing that anyway?

  46. palmtree says:

    Amy Schumer won for Outstanding Variety Sketch Series. I think that’s for the show as a whole and not specific to just writing or acting. But as far as nominations, she got nominated for lead acting, directing, and writing on that show. So really, I believe she can and should go the auteur route and get some credibility as an important filmmaker.

  47. Glamourboy says:

    So what has been the buzz on Infinity War?

    JS, what is your opinion? I know you like to review movies before you see them.

  48. JSPartisan says:

    GB, that post is there, that didn’t happen, and do I have to share with you the numerous studies, that show spoilers enhance the experience for some people? Being spoiler averse is weird. Nevertheless, Marvel Studios gave all the people complaining about stakes and villains what they wanted, and I’ll put money down those same people will demand Marvel Studios fix it this time next year.

    BD, they apparently do it for the clicks, because they did it for the Last Jedi as well. I’m not sure the Last Jedi release got as much heat as the Avengers, but I have no idea how that guy and Forbes aren’t banned in the future.

  49. Bulldog says:

    “and do I have to share with you the numerous studies, that show spoilers enhance the experience for some people?”

    I have no doubt that is true, but I’m not one of those people. I feel like I’ve seen everything I need to see from the Jurassic World:LK 2 trailers. Too much. I don’t know why studios who have a sure product think they need to show so much. Here’s hoping there is no more Deadpool 2 trailers. And this from someone who loves a good trailer.

  50. JSPartisan says:

    BD, here’s the problem though. Audiences want to know what in the hell is going on, before spending that cash. These trailers have two percent of footage, and sometimes footage not in the movie. Knowing isn’t really knowing. If that makes sense.

  51. Bulldog says:

    I get your point JS. Unfortunately I don’t think too many studios have mastered the art of skillful misdirection with trailers and just give away the farm. I always remember that scene in MIB, when in the trailer they showed that there was a little alien inside the head of another one, working the levers. Since then I’ve been saying that would’ve been a cool surprise to discover at the movie. And while I guess knowing it did not diminish the experience, I like to be surprised at movies.

  52. Glamourboy says:

    JS, this makes no sense at all…sorry. I mean…’numerous studies’ ??? Please show your math here. Give links to the numerous studies. And how scientific are they? I did a quick Google search and found one crappy article where the evidence was….”We talked to a lot of people”….and then the writer agrees that the vast majority of moviegoers don’t like plot twists revealed. I am a writer for film (what do you do for a living again), and I can tell you that a key is ALWAYS writing a story that has surprises, twists and turns….and that studios go to a fair amount of trouble to not allow journalists ruin secrets. I mean, if this was true, and it made people enjoy films more, why wouldn’t they just print the spoilers themselves? I mean, ok, you’re eccentric and you like things that most people don’t like…but don’t try to BS and sell a bill of goods that the vast majority of filmgoers prefer to have a story spoiled for them. Serriously….look at the name..SPOILERS…thats got to tell you something.

  53. JSPartisan says:

    Oh. He writes. Good to know. I don’t care about your agenda, about how you or any other creative feels. Let me know the ending. If you don’t respect it? Fine. I don’t care, but I knew this was coming. Here’s a brief story.

    My brother and I, learned the spoilers to the Matrix Revolutions, and the death of Trinity pissed us right the fuck off. We went into the theater pissed, but guess what? Knowing what happened before hand, processing it, then watching it. Helped us enjoy the movie.

    That’s how we work, and a lot of people work the same way. I would Google everything for you, but why should I? You’re still angry and confrontational towards me. We disagree. The end.

    BD, I agree they have no idea what the hell they are doing, but it’s like I’ve been pointing out all Spring. Unless they show what’s happening on screen. People aren’t showing up.

  54. Glamourboy says:

    I’m not angry at all….I’m more incredulous…especially when people say that an idea of theirs is backed up with loads and loads of research….so much research…when the actual basis is them and their brother learning the spoilers to the Matrix.

    Maybe when you make a claim that there is loads of research, you should be ready to back it up with some fact. I’m sorry, but you and your brother don’t really qualify as loads of research. How about just stating something as your own opinion?

    Or why don’t we try this approach…JS, there are many studies that have been done that you are kind of ridiculous in a good hearted way..lots of them…they all come to the same conclusions. that you don’t know what you’re talking about most of the time. I could show those studies to you, but why should I? Can I admit that I enjoy how ridiculous you are sometimes? It’s charming.

  55. JSPartisan says:

    The rest of us seem to be rather chill these days. You show up, and decide to claim superiority. Good for you to claim how great you are on the HOT BLOG! I mean. Jesus Christ, himself, could post here, and have it not be known for years. Seriously. The Hot Blog is where you decide to be “SUPERIOR?” How lucky we are, on a semi regular basis, to interact with such a truly unique and seminally talented individual. I mean. You chose the Hot Blog to brag about your amazing talent and life. Jesus. We are blessed.

  56. Stella's Boy says:

    I don’t know about academic studies or anything like that (nevermind thanks palmtree), but back in 2000 didn’t Zemeckis say that audiences don’t really care about spoilers back when What Lies Beneath (SPOILERS!) came out and made $155 million after revealing Ford is the bad guy in its trailer? That’s not definitive evidence, but people do seem to be mixed on spoilers. I know I’ve read a bunch of stories about how due to social media and streaming and binging and all that, spoilers don’t really exist anymore. I don’t like them, but many don’t seem to care. Maybe it’s not something that has a simple answer.

  57. palmtree says:

    They did a spoiler study at UC San Diego in 2016 that supports what JS is saying.

    https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/spoiler-alert-spoilers-make-you-enjoy-stories-more

    And it was the top search result too.

  58. JSPartisan says:

    Thanks, palm.

    And I feel for BD, or anyone who is truly annoyed by spoilers. I’ve always skipped to the back of the book, because it’s the journey. Apparently.

  59. Glamourboy says:

    And here is one from a Science site that says the exact opposite…also a top search result…

    https://www.livescience.com/53126-spoilers-can-ruin-movie-enjoyment.html

    Oh, and there is that little thing calmed common sense…that we go into a theater wanting someone to tell us a story and that if someone has given away the surprises it takes away from the experience.

    JS, I was actually trying to compliment you and to put a positive spin on your eccentricities….sorry that you were so insulted.

  60. palmtree says:

    btw, I’m firmly on the side of the “no spoilers please” people.

    But I think there’s something to this whole thing. I often enjoy a movie the second time around more in part because I know what’s coming so I can see how each moment builds toward that revelation. Obviously, seeing a movie a second time isn’t the exact same thing as a spoiler, but the principle is the same…you can get enjoyment even if you already know the twist.

  61. Bulldog says:

    “Oh, and there is that little thing calmed common sense…that we go into a theater wanting someone to tell us a story and that if someone has given away the surprises it takes away from the experience.”

    Not for everyone Glamourboy. People want different experiences. I’m firmly in the no spoiler column but I have a friend who reads everything he possibly can, spoilers and all, before going to see a movie, because he’s getting something different from it. I don’t think folks like him are in the majority whatsoever. Most people want to be surprised.

    @ Palmtree, I think films are like meals at a restaurant. A new film equates to a new restaurant. You may have the steak, and clearly you know what steak tastes like, but you’ve never had their steak. Rewatching the film is like going back to that restaurant to have that steak again because you enjoyed it. But what can be said for rewatching a movie you hated again? Which I have done on numerous occasions. I “enjoyed” a bad meal?

  62. Hcat says:

    ‘Jesus Christ, himself, could post here, and have it not be known for years’

    Shit, cover blown

  63. palmtree says:

    Bulldog, the return enjoyment isn’t in whether it was good or bad. The enjoyment is in seeing how it all comes together and noticing things you didn’t notice before. Thanks for allowing me to clarify.

    Basically, what I’m arguing for is THE ROOM, which it turns out is enjoyable and rewatched even though it is objectively a bad movie.

    I don’t like horror movies, but I actually think I’ll enjoy one more if I read spoilers, because then I’d enjoy it without the anxiety of being terrified.

  64. Bulldog says:

    “Bulldog, the return enjoyment isn’t in whether it was good or bad. The enjoyment is in seeing how it all comes together and noticing things you didn’t notice before. Thanks for allowing me to clarify.”

    Forgive my poor sentence structure. That comment wasn’t meant that way. In my analogy for returning to a meal because you enjoyed it I also copped to rewatching bad movies myself. Don’t really know why. I’ve definitely seen Spiderman 3 more than once and I hate that movie.

  65. JSPartisan says:

    GB, it seemed condescending, but if it was you giving me niceties. I apologize for any misunderstanding.

    And spoilers help me process. Seeing helps me understand. Hopefully, that makes some sort of brief sense.

    HC, that shit made me laugh out loud.

  66. palmtree says:

    LOL So now we know what the H stands for in Jesus H. Christ.

    BD, gotcha.

  67. Glamourboy says:

    JS–it is sincere. Although I wildly disagree with much of what you say..I do admire you and your passion for film.

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