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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Kladyos

friday estimates 651 2018-04-28 at 10.21.10 AM

There isn’t a lot to say. Number is huge. Number was expected. Presales indicated it would be short of Force Awakens. Which it is. Still, why would anyone quibble about a $200 million opening? (Here’s your daily reminder that theatrical is dying… not.)

A Quiet Place didn’t officially lose screens… but they lost theaters, as Avengers ate most of the multiples at ‘plexes. The Avengers claim of 4474 theaters likely means 15,000 actual screens this opening weekend, if not more. This means fewer options for seeing other movies like A Quiet Place. A 49% Friday drop for the film is actually good news. And it will improve over the weekend.

Black Panther, losing theaters, got a bump out of the Avengers arrival. Impressive.

Everyone else lost more than 50% of last week’s number. Welcome to the summer.

In limited release, Disobedience worked as counterprogramming. Orthodox Judaism, hot chicks (who are also two of our best actresses), and self-empowerment deliver over $40k per screen for the weekend.

39 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Kladyos”

  1. Stella's Boy says:

    People are getting fired today over that number. Embarrassing.

  2. Hcat says:

    So Panther was the choice for those that didn’t prebuy tickets?

    Again this raises the bar for whenever DC gets around to doing that Justice League movie.

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    Lol Hcat. I’m not as harsh on DC as most folks and somewhat of a self diagnosed apologist, but there has to be a sunken feeling in that universe when its rival counterpart’s movie makes more in one weekend than your movie does during its entire theatrical run.

    Just when you think you’re beginning to be on competitive footing with Wonder Woman, you get your worse grossing movie ever in what should’ve been a high point as Marvel rattles off three consecutive $300m plus grossers followed by two $600m plus grossers. And at this point $700m isn’t out of the question for either movie.

    There is nothing more to say except it’s phenomenal.

  4. JSPartisan says:

    It’s going to beat that record. The metrics were higher than TFA, outside of presales, so dont be surprised if it beats it substantially.

  5. PTA Fluffer says:

    One wishes these movies were also works of art worth discussing on some intellectual level instead of just cash machines. But they aren’t, and so I go home feeling empty instead of stimulated. Old man yells at cloud, etc.

  6. movieman says:

    I doubt whether many commenters on this blog care, but I saw two stunning movies this week–both directed by women (!)–that single-handedly restored my faith in 21st century auteurist cinema.
    Lynne Ramsay’s “You Were Never Really Here” and Chloe Zhao’s “The Rider.”
    “You Were…” is so intense I could practically hear my heart beat. Ramsay does even more with silence than Krasinski did in “A Quiet Place.” (Extra props for her brilliantly inspired use of Rosie and the Originals’ “Angel Baby.”)
    And regional-realist Zhao continues to impress as one of the most singular talents of her generation. I can’t wait to see what she does next.
    Anybody who cares about film as an art form needs to seek them out.

  7. Stella's Boy says:

    I care! I love Ramsay and am seeing You Were… on Monday afternoon. Can’t wait.

  8. Ray Pride says:

    Could possible be the best 89 minutes of your week

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    I saw Ramsay’s film last week and nobody seemed interested then. It’ll be in my top 10. It’s unbearably tense and unpredictable.

  10. Aaron Aradillas says:

    So, how do we feel about BLACK PANTHER hitting $700 million? It’ll close out this weekend at $689 million. Does it have another $11 million in the tank?

  11. Stella's Boy says:

    I’ve been interested for a long time Bill. It’s just that it didn’t open here until yesterday.

  12. JSPartisan says:

    Fuller, at least you admit it.

    Movie man, when Ramsay makes a Marvel film, a DC film, or some other large franchise film. Where’s you film as an art form comment going to be? It the dumpster where it belongs. It’s elistist garbage of the highest order. It’s all art.

    I literally just went to a library sale, and what did I buy? 81/2, Waking Life, Somersby, and Im Gonna Get You Sucka. Why? Film is more than just one thing. There are theaters, right now, playing Infinity War and You Were Never Really Here. Please call them Movie, and tell them that they aren’t respecting the ART! MAN!

  13. Amblinman says:

    “One wishes these movies were also works of art worth discussing on some intellectual level instead of just cash machines. But they aren’t, and so I go home feeling empty instead of stimulated. Old man yells at cloud, etc.“

    One also wishes for Dr Octopus’ mechanical arms so one could make dismissive wanking gestures at comments like this with 6 hands instead of just 2.

  14. Ray Pride says:

    Ramsay still intends to find finance for her MOBY DICK IN SPACE.

  15. Sideshow Bill says:

    I dig it Stella. I had to travel into Chicago to see it but I was NOT missing it. Luckily it was worth it.. Hope you enjoy it

  16. Sideshow Bill says:

    Ray, is that an adaptation of that Futurama episode? If so, take my money now.

  17. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Jeez, I never expected JS to throw out some random reference to Sommersby in here. ‘Yiw aw naht mah hisbin! Yiw aw naht Jack Sommersby!”. James Earl Jones pounding the gavel like a champ! Bill Pullman doesn’t get the girl – again. Ah, 1993. What a time to be young and a moviegoer.

  18. movieman says:

    Thanks, Partisan!
    I consider “elitist” a compliment (even though you intended it as the ultimate spit in my face because of your long-standing loathing of me and everything you think I represent).

  19. Bulldog68 says:

    No Marvel movie is masquerading as “high art”. I think people close their minds of to certain types of movie and not see what’s there sometimes. I have yet to have a satisfying experience from any Terrace Malick film. Fuck his pretentious bullshit. Only white privilege can equate daddy issues with the beginning of the universe. Why can’t I see depth in both The Dark Knight and The Piano? Why can’t I appreciate the struggles for acceptance in both the XMen franchise and Moonlight? I hated Witch, and still looking forward to Mother!

    I think both Marvel and DC should be given credit for trying, and yes sometimes failing, but trying nonetheless. They’re bringing on Directors who do have vision, and are still looking for that right combination of artistic vision and popular entertainment, because after all, these movies were made for the ten year old in all of us, and I think that is forgotten sometimes. You don’t put on network television on a Saturday morning expecting Fellini.

  20. Ray Pride says:

    “”We’re taking the premise into the galaxy,” Ramsay said. “We’re creating a whole new world, and a new alien. [It’s] a very psychological piece, mainly taking place in the ship, a bit like Das Boot, so it’s quite claustrophobic. It’s another monster movie, cos the monster’s Ahab. It’s about this mad captain whose crazy need for revenge takes the crew to their death. I’m taking people into dark waters and you see some casualties on the way. It’s fascinating stuff because there’s so much in it.”

    Video, 2:57, with Mark Kermode.

  21. EtGuild2 says:

    On BLACK PANTHER, $700 million will be close, but it actually looks more likely (now that it will have surpassed LAST JEDI worldwide by weekend’s end) to catch DEATHLY HALLOWS 2 for #8 globally.

  22. JSPartisan says:

    Movie, why would I loathe you? I have responded to your comments for over a decade, dude. I don’t loathe you, but you or anyone else shouldn’t be a snob. It’s not cool.

  23. leahnz says:

    pfft after a few mentions of ‘you were never really here’ in a recent thread i did a rambling, detailed treatise on the deeply disturbing and strangely beautiful artwork that it is, which was the only and top comment on the sidebar thingy for ages – this was not even a week ago and weirdly, nada from nobody. so, i tried

  24. Christian says:

    I was underwhelmed by “You Were Never Really Here” but want to rally around it now that I see it competing for most posts in this “Avengers”-opening-weekend box-office thread! Go, Lynne Ramsay!

    Or better yet – much better, IMHO – Go, Chloe Zhao! What an amazing film “The Rider” is. Thanks for shouting it out, movieman. It’s displaced “The Death of Stalin” atop my Best of 2018 list, which, as the summer movie season kicks off in earnest, looks like this:

    Best Films of 2018

    The Rider
    The Death of Stalin
    A Quiet Place
    Game Night
    Paddington 2
    Ismael’s Ghosts

    –A good year at the movies is certainly taking shape.

  25. movieman says:

    Glad to hear that you also loved “The Rider,” Christian.
    Zhao is an amazing talent. I can’t think of a director since vintage Rossellini and Bresson who used non-professional actors as skillfully. Plus, her films are as visually–and spiritually–beautiful as prime Malick.
    Dying to see “Ismael’s Ghost” (it never even played the Cleveland Cinematheque, so I guess it’ll have to wait until the July DVD release), and really looking forward to “Thoroughbreds” (another movie that didn’t open anywhere near me).
    Agree w/ you about “Stalin” and “Annihilation,” but my top pick of the year so far has to be “Isle of Dogs.” Wes Anderson can do no wrong in my book. He’s my favorite (contemporary) American director. I sometimes joke that he single-handedly keeps the auteur theory alive.

    Leah- I either missed your thread, or subconsciously skipped it because I knew I was going to be seeing the movie in a few days. Will definitely look it up.

  26. leahnz says:

    no worries movieman i was trying to remember the thread, it was Friday’s BO one (two weeks ago — my perception of time is off, my bad), here’s part of my comment:

    “what fascinates me about YWNRH (which i’d like to see again to hash out a couple things i was unclear on, but i haven’t stopped thinking about it for weeks now) is that the basic plot/premise — ‘deeply troubled veteran and abuse survivor turned vigilante gets drawn into a case that’s bigger than it seems, with deadly consequences’ — is fairly conventional on its face, and yet L ramsay’s conceptualisation and execution of the subject matter is so discordant and disturbing with brief moments of surreal beauty and delicacy and emotional catharsis in such contrast to the brutality, so unique; i saw it called an ‘action’ movie but i’m not sure it is, more a ‘motion’ movie as we follow joe along the streets and down hallways and in rooms and in his mind, past and present, sometimes mundane, sometimes shocking… and the end, ugh, i’m so conflicted how i feel about it.”

    ETA looking forward to ‘the rider’, which i’ve heard is really lovely and Zhao is the shit

  27. movieman says:

    Leah- When “You Were…” ended, I felt like I’d been submerged under water for 90 minutes and was finally able to come up for air.
    Utterly spellbinding/hypnotic in its feral intensity. At times I was reminded of Gasper Noe’s “I Stand Alone.”
    Every Ramsay film to date has been terrific. Too bad about that Natalie Portman western: I bet Ramsay’s version would have been killer.

    After seeing “Songs My Brothers Taught Me” for the first time a few weeks ago, I couldn’t wait to see “The Rider.”
    No sophomore jinxes for Zhao. Wow.

  28. EtGuild2 says:

    @Christian, This year has been okay, but for me it’s not in the same ZIP Code as 2017.

  29. LBB says:

    “Again this raises the bar for whenever DC gets around to doing that Justice League movie.”
    Shouldn’t have read that while drinking coffee.

  30. JSPartisan says:

    Ding. Ding.

  31. Doug R says:

    Makes me wonder if DC hadn’t dialed back their ambition and had gone ahead with a two part Justice League movie with Darkseid showing up, what the take on AIW would have been?
    When are the producers of these big event movies going to realize a big part of the appeal of some of the best comic book movies is real locations? I would argue that’s the step up from Batman Begins to Dark Knight. There’s no mistaking Gotham is Chicago. Wonder Woman’s best parts are shot outdoors, even Black Panther gained something from locations.

  32. Christian says:

    EtGuild: Yeah, 2017 was an amazing year at the movies, although it didn’t really take off for me until “Baby Driver,” which, if memory serves, released a bit later in the calendar than where we are in the current year.

    I’m looking forward to the remainder of 2018.

  33. EtGuild2 says:

    Interesting.Early 2017 really made an indelible impression on me…..Personal Shopper, Get Out, Frantz, Theo & Hugo, We Are The Flesh, Lost City of Z, Logan, John Wick 2, great docs like Starless Dreams. This year has fallen well short for me, with only a few indie titles leaving an impact. I guess to be fair there’s been a lot of stuff (like PADDINGTON 2 and QUIET PLACE) that I thought were very enjoyable but for whatever reason haven’t lingered in my mind much.

  34. Bitplaya says:

    Justice League was entirely re-shot on a back lot. Streets with no pedestrians. It was a failure on every single level possible. They should scrap everything and re-start Bond style. They can use the same actors if they want. Explain it later. Earth 2 or some bullshit.

  35. Pete B says:

    ^ Henry Cavill wakes up next to Amy Adams in bed and says “Lois… I just had the weirdest dream. I think I need to call my Dad.”

  36. Christian says:

    EtGuild: Good reminders, especially as “Personal Shopper,” which turned out to be my #1 film of 2017, was an early-year release, as you point out. I don’t think “Starless Dreams” even rings a bell with me. I’ll take this as recommendation and will look it up.

  37. leahnz says:

    movieman, so relieved the super weird ‘jane’s got a gun’ fuckarow didn’t derail ramsay, i must admit i was worried.
    speaking of being submerged under water, ———- spoilers ————— that scene of joe and his mum’s water burial really got me, so heart-breaking and beautiful and gently macabre and surreal, really well done.

    (zhao’s next gig sounds promising as well, so here’s hoping the real deal talents continue to get their projects funded and distributed/seen — and hopefully work their way into some more mainstream fare to boot, displace some of the safe, mediocre blandoids currently taking up so much of the commercial director’s booty, not exactly holding my breath on that one though haha)

  38. Stella's Boy says:

    You Were Never Really Here is pretty damn amazing. Ramsay is just a phenomenal director. It’s a hallucinatory horror movie, and a highly effective one. Phoenix is outstanding. The score and sound design are just incredible. It’s weird and haunting (and yeah that underwater scene is remarkable). It’s really special. Here’s to Ramsay getting to do whatever the hell she wants from now on.

  39. leahnz says:

    seems like people either really dig ‘YWNRH’ or quite dislike it, which is good in a way (Joaquin is just next level in it, rather astonishing)

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