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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by A Quiet Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-04-07 at 8.04.43 AM

A Quiet Place is one of those stories where good things happen and no one can take credit for “tricking” the audience into showing up. Tracking had the film’s opening 3-day at about what it madae on Friday (with the now-presumed and incorporated Thursday night).

So what happened?

My guess is women. A Quiet Place is about a family trying to survive with the females and male of equal – but different – importance. Young women have been, at different times, a huge audience for horror-thrillers and this film may have tapped that audience in an unexpected way.

It is also possible that the film is playing like a classic horror film and will go flat through the rest of the weekend. I hope this isn’t the case: I think it will rebound with word-of-mouth if that is the case… but I wouldn’t rule it out.

But this film has gone from what looked like a nice little hit to a potential cash cow. This will be Paramount’s biggest non-franchise opener since Interstellar. And the sequel is set up in the film.

Blockers will be the #1 comedy opening of 2018 to date… but that’s damning with faint praise. The #2 is $17 million for Game Night, which cumed domestically at $66 million (a strong multiple for these days). Blockers will open in the low 20s, though it may find very strong legs as word-of-mouth lets out that it is more na up-sexualized John Hughes film than a chick Porky‘s. (Yes, I know the word “chick” is trouble… please allow for context.)

Another film that reads genre but is more than it appears to be is You Were Never Really Here, which will do something around $60k per screen on three this weekend. It is a demanding, tough movie about a man of violence who is on the edge of self-obliteration… for some a non-starter… for me, a masterpiece by Lynne Ramsey, based on the novella by Jonathan Ames, with an Oscar-level performance by Joaquin Phoenix.

A24 opens Lean on Pete to over $10k per screen.

Entertainment Studios opens Chappaquiddick to a modest $5 million or so, which is about enough to make it to profit, all in.

And The Miracle Season goes onto the heap of Christian outreach films that didn’t reach many Christians.

29 Responses to “Friday Estimates by A Quiet Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Paramount’s biggest opener since STAR TREK BEYOND and biggest original opener since 2014. A reminder of the lessons of early last year, that well-made, low-budget genre flicks are the way to go before summer.

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    Wow made more than its production budget in one day. Not bad. Seeing it on Tuesday. Can’t wait.

  3. Arisp says:

    Nothing wrong with the word “chick”. Women call each other A LOT worse. Enough with this stupidity.

  4. Aaron Aradillas says:

    Question: Does BLACK PANTHER have another $40.8 million left in order to get to $700 million?

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’m seeing A QUIET PLACE late today. Ever since we saw the previews a few months ago my girlfriend and our daughters have been out of their minds for it. Small sample size, yea, but Dave might be on to something.

    Dying to see YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE. Hope we get it out here in the flatlands.

    Based on recommendations from some of you we watched ONLY THE BRAVE last night. It was quite good, very well acted. The fire scenes were intense. That being said –and this may be a superficial “complaint”– we all had dry eyes at the end. My girlfriend is an easy mark for a sad movie, and even I can be blindsided. I expected some tears but there were none. I feel like the film somehow fumbled the emotional impact of what happened. Or maybe it didn’t. It could have went for maximum melodrama and emotion and manipulation but it didn’t. It just showed you what happened and why. Maybe that’s a strength and not a weakness as I originally felt. It is a good film, though. I am so in awe of what Josh Brolin has become. I never saw it happening.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s an interesting take Sidehow Bill. I’m not prone to tear up, but definitely did for ONLY THE BRAVE. A lot of the negative criticism was that it was too schmaltzy, so who knows.

    Regardless, definitely one of the most overlooked wide release in recent history.

    @Aaron, no. FORCE AWAKENS did $30 million in its run after this week and that was on a -27% week-to-week drop over the next seven weekends. PANTHER would need to start making -20% weekend declines consistently. $685 million seems like the target though $690 wouldn’t be a surprise.

  7. Sideshow Bill says:

    The credits with the pictures of the real fire fighters did hit me in the gut. It’s weird. I admire the film the more I think about it.

    And just as a very obvious note, I cherish every moment we get to have with Jeff Bridges these days. He is so good, every time, all time. He’s a national treasure.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    One thought on ONLY THE BRAVE. Why was this film overlooked for numerous awards while DARKEST HOUR was basically a shoo-in for numerous categories? Campaigning, folks.

  9. Christian says:

    I can’t remember if I cried at “Only the Brave,” but I remember being stunned by the finale – more numb than teary-eyed, but appropriately devastated. I didn’t know the true story before watching the film, so I was rather surprised. I felt wrung-out (in a good way) as I walked out of the theater.

  10. brack says:

    It was a mystery that A Quiet Place was going to open big? Really??? It had arguably one of the best trailers for scary movie I’ve seen in a long time. Women have driven horror films for years at the box office. Hard-hitting stuff David.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    @brack a $45 million+ opening isn’t a surprise? C’mon.

  12. Pete B says:

    Dave, I’ve seen the trailer too many times to count, but never thought The Miracle Season was a “Christian” film. Seemed more like the generic underdog sports film to me.

  13. brack says:

    @ EtGuild2 – Not at all. I thought $40m easily. By far the best marketed “horror” film in several months, with great trailers (always got a reaction at the theaters I’ve attended), tv spots, and relatively known if not openers for stars. I would have been surprised if it hadn’t opened as well as it did.

  14. David Poland says:

    Brack… glad you are good at guessing things. I called this as a $150m grosser when I saw it. So we agree. But the tracking was at less than half this number last week and women going to/dominating horror movie box office has happened in waves, but has not consistently been the norm.

    Not sure why the attitude.

  15. brack says:

    I’m not trying to come off with the an attitude, but is it really crazy for the film to open to $50M? Not really, and I’ve stated my reasoning twice now, so I’m not going to do it again. I never said that women showed up for everything. They show up in “waves” because of the amounts of sequels and piss-poor marketing. Women are smarter, and can be a little harder to sell to, which I think is a compliment. They didn’t go see It Comes At Night because there was no real hook. They came to The Conjuring, Anabelle, Insidious, Split, etc, because the three was. I’m around a lot of young women where I work, we talk movies sometimes, and 9 times our 10 can tell you they want to see the latest scary movies, but need to know what’s it is. Sometimes it looks too vague or scary, like Unsane. Plus this time around, all the young girls, in their 20s, and even older, love Jim Halpert. I love the actor too. I thought to myself, “finally, he’ll get the monkey of The Office off his shoulder.” Glad he did.

    And sure, I’m guessing, just like everyone else does, but it’s mostly educated guessing. I hadn’t followed the tracking, but I would have thought was very low-ball conservative. The “tracking” acts like they have a crystal ball when it comes to predicting openings, and when it’s not what they thought, they have to come up with some complicated explanation.

    Bottom line: great marketing, you had the Super Bowl ad (think people are forgetting that), and a really good release date with no direct competition, so yeah, I guessed. But it was educated. I’ve been reading you David for almost twenty years, you think maybe I have learned a think two. Despite my squabbles with IO, I have been following box office and openings for well over 20 years. A hobby of mine, and when I see a movie that I felt seemed destined for huge success many months, and opens like I “guessed”,

    I find these sort of “explanation” articles interesting, as if openings for the genre or similar marketing strategies haven’t been this successful before. It’s like selective memory or something for the analysts. Not copping an attitude, just tellling it like it is, and sorry you too offense. I was way more sure of this opening than I was Ready Player One, which has a very niche audience to begin with given its subject matter.

    And no, I haven’t even seen A Quiet Place, I’ve had to wake the whole weekend plus Thursday, so I would have already had seen it Thursday night, but I’m looking forward to seeing it this week when I’m off.

    David, I have nothing but the upmost respect for you, like I’ve said, been with you since the Rough Cut days, and you know your stuff, but we all know the “tracking” can be way off, especially with the horror genre. I expect Truth or Dare to bomb. Let’s see if I’m right. I hoped I’ve picked up a thing or two reading your stuff for so long. The intangibles are not as easy to gauge, very true.

  16. movieman says:

    Speaking of bombs, how big an egg will “Sgt. Stubby” hatch next weekend?

  17. brack says:

    And just to back up my “guess” (I call them predictions):

    “I think [Ready Player One] can coexist with A Quiet Place for a decent 2nd weekend.” – Posted on the April 5th blog post here.

    Meaning I was certain it was opening at least number #1, with a fairly big opening since I was hoping for a decent drop for Ready Player One.

  18. palmtree says:

    Brack, I think we’ve all made correct yet consensus-bucking predictions here that have gone unacknowledged. It’s weird when you see people who disagreed with your prediction not later acknowledge you had some insight. But you know, people are more motivated to comment after you’ve gotten something wrong than when you get it right. So I guess I will pay it forward and say I never would’ve thought QUIET PLACE was a $50m opener, so kudos to you.

  19. PcChongor says:

    I knew “A Quiet Place” was going to hit big at the premiere when nary a single crunch of popcorn or candy wrapper futzing was heard throughout most of the film. It’s the quietest and most polite audience I’ve *ever* heard, which was perhaps partially due to it being a premiere, but also because they were genuinely enthralled throughout. I wasn’t crazy about it, but it’s good to see an original passion project connect in the marketplace.

  20. brack says:

    palmtree – I agree. I didn’t even see what the tracking was for the movie, I’ve had a very, very busy 2 weeks assumed it was a given this was going to be the biggest thing since Black Panther as far as openings were concerned. I had no idea what David or anyone else was predicting. I meant no disrespect to anyone. I love David and everyone here. Appreciate the reply and really wasn’t looking for affirmation, but it’s nice to get it sometimes.

  21. brack says:

    Damn my post before Last was sloppy. Sorry about that’s folks. Damn iPhone.

  22. David Poland says:

    My point was not to denigrate brack. My point was, the tracking was the tracking. Obviously I got into that more on Sunday.

  23. palmtree says:

    DP, if you were addressing me, I wasn’t trying to imply that you denigrated brack. I was just sympathizing that I understood what it felt like to have a correct prediction go unnoticed or unacknowledged, not just by you but by the blog regulars too.

  24. Sideshow Bill says:

    I predicted BLADE RUNNER 2049 would under-perform, since we’re taking stock 😉

  25. palmtree says:

    LOL, Bill. There should be an entire BYOB where we can submit a past prediction to get credit for it. (*meant tongue-in-cheek…DP, please don’t actually do this*)

  26. Hcat says:

    Well I will just get some summer predictions out of the way right now.

    Domestically 8 will be the highest grossing Oceans movie while Fallout will be the lowest grossing Mission Impossible.

    And Skyscraper outgrosses Ant-man.

    Disney passes the two billion domestic mark on July 4th.

    The surprise 30 million dollar grosser of the summer is “Wont you be my neighbor?”

  27. Triple Option says:

    Will it really be a surprise if Won’t you be my Neighbor cracks $30M? Do you mean opening?

  28. Jspartisan says:

    I’ll go with the Avengers now, because I have to ruminate on everything else. Looking at the box office for the previous two, and taking into account Black Panther. Avengers is doing 1.8bn, and it should blow through Ultron’s domestic gross in a week. Which is insane, but Utron failing that hard did change the MSCU game. That’s a plus.

    HC, I’ll take that bet.

  29. palmtree says:

    $30m would put “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” as #7 documentary of all time domestically. If it can squeeze past $34m, it would only be bested by Justin Bieber, Michael Jackson, Penguins, and Michael Moore. Not exactly a foregone conclusion.

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