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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Still Pacific Klady

Weekend Estimates 2018-03-25 at 9.47.12 AM

Well, there is a new #1, though it is an underwhelming weekend-vs.-Friday for Pacific Rim Uprising. Six weeks of Black Panther just wore the unusual level of excitement, especially with kids on Saturday, out… which still leaves BP as #5 all-time domestic with plenty in the tank to get to #3 all-time. Sherlock Gnomes broke through the $10 million opening tape like a movie with a much smaller marketing budget. Paul, Apostle of Christ outran the Midnight Sun and Steven, The Apostle of Soderbergh. Isle of Dogs got its $58k per screen average, but is looking less strong that other recent Wes Anderson films.

13 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Still Pacific Klady”

  1. movieman says:

    Isn’t that 27-screen count a tad larger than the usual for a Wes platform launch?

  2. Bulldog68 says:

    BP just doubled the domestic gross of Thor Ragnarok. It could eventually double Homecoming. Again, insane.

  3. Non-Revisionist says:

    “Well, there is a new #1, though it is an underwhelming weekend-vs-friday for Pacific Rim Uprising.”

    This isn’t really true. A 2.72 Weekend-vs.-Friday multiple is pretty standard for this type of movie these days. If anything, it’s actually on the higher end. The first Pac Rim was 2.56, Tomb Raider was 2.63, Maze Runner 3 was 2.86, the last Apes was 2.54, Blade Runner 2049 was 2.60, etc., etc. It’s only the true runaway successes that have a 3+ weekend multiple–in part due to the increased prominence/popularity of Thurs night screenings, which are obviously rolled into Friday grosses.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    Yup, what NonRev said. Rim2 actually came out a little ahead of expectations. Very small victory but I’m sure they’ll take. I’m actually a huge apologist of Rim1. Thought it and Godzilla’s numbers should’ve been switched at the box office.

    I also hope all those soapbox jumpers will read Scott Mendelson over the past couple of days regarding John Boyega and people of colour in lead roles. This isn’t a course correction from the hyperbolic headline, he’s always been on this track.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    He is here to stem the tide of animation failure, his resurrection foretold in a post-credits stinger filled with prophecy.

    The irrepressible, indomitable BOSS BABY has returned.

    BB bounded into Japan this weekend, upping his cume past the $500 million worldwide mark, which only PANDA/SHREK/MADAGASCAR have achieved among DWA releases.

  6. Hcat says:

    Would rather scald my eyes with turpentine than see it but I have to give props to that hold for You Can Only Imagine. Should be RA’s top grossing film by the end of next weekend and not sure what the marketing amount was but it will likely be in profit before leaving theaters. They likely made a few million off the same audience with the micro budgeted Forever My Girl earlier this year.

    And the same goes for Peter Rabbit, not a fan of flatulent CGI animals, but anything that hits four times opening on a wide release at least deserves a golf clap. At the beginning of the year did it seem likely that Peter would outgross Wrinkle?

    And I might actually get around to Game Night at some point. If MGM wants to chart a direction for the next couple of years, they could do a lot worse than mimicking their sometimes collaborator New Line.

  7. leahnz says:

    fwiw i thought ‘game night’ was a surprisingly fun little romp and i’m glad it did ok at the BO (assuming its budget wasn’t astronomical), i wish there were more comedies made in this vein, with a touch of thrills and action to go with the laughs, mainstream but weird enough to be slightly unconventional, with believable chemistry between the leads

  8. Hcat says:

    I am always amazed that studios don’t release more comedies like Game Night. Finally saw Bad Moms recently and honestly how hard was that to make? Find a relatable hook, fill in enough jokes, hire a talented cast to sell it, gross 5-6 times your budget. Same with Horrible Bosses, Girl Trip etc. There is a wealth of talent that could pull off broad comic roles.

    Where they got in trouble were the ever expanding budgets of Sandler and Ferrel, as well as established filmmakers like James L. Brooks and Nancy Meyer spending up to 9 digits on romantic comedies. No comedy without special effects should cost more than $50 million, and the majority can come in at 20. Minimizes risk and maximizes profit, and creates movie stars in a way that comic books and cartoons do not.

    Its time for the studios to dip their toes in the waters again, I long for the days where a comedy is mentioned as a possible tentpole in peoples summer previews again.

  9. brack says:

    So The Last Jedi is clearing at least $400m according to Deadline. BOMB, end of Star Wars.

  10. JS Partisan says:

    Your argument, reminds me of all of those GTA V/Call of Duty arguments. When those games come out, and have these huge weekends. “It made more than so and so movie in a weekend.” “Yeah. A movie cost at most 17 bucks, and the game is 60, plus deluxe editions that cost 75 to a 100. Not to mention that game development and advertising, always comes close to costing more than most movies. ” “What’s your point?” “Video games and movies, do not exist in the same economic environment, so why act like they do?”

    It’s a flawed argument, because the blu is 25 bucks and the UHD is 40 bucks. One million people buying that stuff. Falls in line with the box office it made, and it doesn’t make Rian Johnson a brand ambassador. Black Panther should make more or the same in August, and Avengers may as well. This isn’t a victory by any stretch of the imagination, but it shows the people who liked it…

    No. Sorry. It’s the first SW movie in UHD. There you go. It’s a tech demo for a lot of people, but let’s wait to see how Solo does with Avengers and Deadpool, and if it doesn’t crater.

    Again, glad you liked it, but I loathe that movie enough to walk away after Solo. After Solo? Only one thing would bring me back: if the world between worlds is used. If they bring in time travel, that would be trippy as hell, and I would give it a shot. Especially, if JJ uses the world between worlds to make it, where there was never a Darth Vader in the first place. If you are going to end the Skywalker saga, then you might as well really end it.

    This level of insanity will never happen, so I am good with walking away. It would be nice if they went nuts, but it is what it is at this point.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Boy, you could scarcely imagine two more different First Quarters than 2017 and 2018. The top movie of the year will be the 3rd highest domestic grosser in history, while the #2 domestic grosser, PETER RABBIT, would clock in at 9th place among 2017 domestic grossers at this point.

  12. cadavra says:

    And PETER tripled the gross of the much superior PADDINGTON 2. What a world.

  13. brack says:

    I make a single statement about The Last Jedi’s success, and you simply go in as it being a fluke or whatever rambling is going on, as if it was even attack on you. smh.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4