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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by White Leonard

Weekend Estimates 2018-02-25 at 9.11.03 AM

Black Panther shows remarkable resilience from a 45% drop on Friday to estimate 3.7x the Friday gross over the weekend and a record $108 million second weekend. Game Night holds through the weekend and there are some hopes that it will play leggy and do more than $50 million total domestic. And Annihilation is flat over the 3-day, with arguments ramping up amongst film writers.

Well… that was a remarkable Saturday explosion. A 65% bump from Friday to Saturday is pretty much unheard of outside of children’s films, which have soft Fridays. And indeed, there may well have been a big rush of younger kids showing up Saturday after word-of-mouth let parents know Black Panther was safe for the little ones. It is the 2nd best 2nd Saturday ever, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and ahead of #3, Avengers, by over 10%.

This has to up the estimate of the final domestic number on the film… and to some degree the international. Perhaps $1.3 billion is now the floor, not the ceiling. But it’s still early to really know.

Reported demographics remain abut the same. 33% black, 37% white, 18% hispanic/latino, 7% asian, and 5% “other.”

One-third black means about $133 million at the box office or about 12.5 – 13 million black ticket buyers (given add-ons and an adult lean). That’s about half the entire total of frequent and occasional black moviegoers in America, though I’m sure that part of the number is also infrequent moviegoers (1 or 2 times a year). This is a remarkable show of muscle. I’m not 100% sure how the industry responds. After all, history tells us that recreating a phenomenon – with any group or every group – is no mean feat. I would expect WB/DC to put a black Green Lantern film on speed dial immediately. And I would expect a $15 million – $20 million payday for Michael B. Jordan in the next year.

The film is also, obviously, huge with white audiences and all the others. (But more on that yesterday.)

Game Night found an audience as the only wide release comedy in the marketplace and really, the only wide comedy since Pitch Perfect 2 and Father Figures back on December 22. So really good date. Some pretty good reviews. But still kinda soft. I haven’t seen the movie, so I can’t explain the movie vs marketing variable fully. But from the outside, the marketing was pretty blurry. Maybe it will play for a while, as the filmmakers’ previous Horrible Bosses did.

Annihilation is causing fights amongst film critics and writers. Is it a great movie that was dumped. Is it a problem movie that was unsellable? What would it have been like if it went straight-to-streaming? Bottom line is that it will make as much as Ex Machina and perhaps a little more. But while that was a great win for A24, this one is less so for a big studio like Paramount. The film also cost more than double what Ex Machina did.

Fifty Shades Freed is doing well… but not nearly as well as the first two films… though it may catch up with #2.

Jumanji is still chugging away towards $400 million domestic and just short of $1 billion worldwide.

The Greatest Showman will pass Chicago domestically. Probably not Grease. But worldwide, the way the international market has expanded, it will pass both worldwide. Beauty & The Beast and La La Land stand in the way of the top 2 slots. That means that the top 3 musicals ever were released in the last 14 months… which means??? More musicals?

Both Searchlight Best Picture contenders are shedding screens, but holding well anyway. Interestingly, after falling behind Shape of Water, Three Billboards has now moved ahead this weekend – for this weekend, Shape remaining ahead by $5m or so – and is the top Best Picture contending grosser this weekend. Does that mean anything? Impossible to say. Both films are also quite close to the box office gross at the time of the awards of 12 Years A Slave. Also probably irrelevant.

BP contenders 2018-02-25 at 10.24.26 AM

As noted before – and all rules are made to be broken – no film in the top 3 grossers amongst Best Picture nominees has won since the expansion beyond 5 said nominees. Twice the #4 has won (Argo and The King’s Speech). Last year was the first time the bottom grosser at the time voting ended won the Oscar.

Does box office matter in Oscar voting? Not like it used to… not at all. And so it goes…

48 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by White Leonard”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Best 2nd weekend hold in the MCU. It’s performing like a Marvel solo movie overseas…should end right in the THOR 2/CAP 2/Dr. Strange/GOTG sweet spot if China doesn’t break….if it comes close to normal it should match RAGNAROK/HOMECOMING offshore. Worldwide it may fall a little shy of CIVIL WAR /IRON MAN 3, but will likely be more profitable due to the higher domestic takes and likely lower Chinese haul. So the 3rd most profitable superhero movie ever made at the BO.

    Look at OPERATION RED SEA. Can we make a convenient name for Chinese Releases like Bollywood please? “Hanawood?” (China’s film industry is run by ethnic Han Chinese).

  2. movieman says:

    It’s beginning to look like “Lady Bird” won’t be passing the $50-million mark after all.
    Too bad.
    Still a great performance for A24 no matter how you parse it.

  3. Hcat says:

    Glad someone took a chance on Annihilation but wouldn’t the key to be to have some revenue generators to offset the risk? Paramount doesn’t have anything that looks like it can cross 50 mil until MI in the last week of frickin July. So while they get to leap out of 16th place this weekend Paramount looks like they will still lag behind Lionsgate again this year and may not catch STX either.

  4. movieman says:

    Ahh, Stx.
    Finally caught up ww/ Den of Thieves” this weekend.
    For a “Heat” knock-off starring anti-move star Gerard Butler, it’s not bad.
    Pablo Schreiber completely owns the film: it’s a legitimately great supporting performance. The kind that makes you sit up in your seat whenever he’s onscreen, and listen intently to every word that emanates from his mouth.
    Delighted to learn that he’s in Damien Chazelle’s upcoming Neil Armstrong movie,
    And I previously wasn’t a Schreiber fan: I actively disliked him in FX’s “Lights Out.” But that might have been because the character he played was such a shit. Had the same reaction to Jon Bernthal when he was on TWD. Didn’t realize what a good actor he was until “The Wolf of Wall Street”…and beyond.

    P.S.= The anti-movie star comment. If traditional movie stars make you want to rush out and see anything they’re in, Butler is “anti” because he makes you want to run screaming in the opposite direction of anything he toplines. In this (rare) case, that would have been a mistake.

  5. movieman says:

    “Game Night” was “good enough.” And for a 2018, R-rated studio comedy, that’s more than enough. Just don’t dare compare it to “Into the Night,” “Something Wild” or “After Hours.”
    Was also pleased that it was an increasingly rare digitally-lensed studio movie that didn’t suffer from digital-murk.
    Even the nighttime and interior scenes were sharp and in-focus.
    Thank you!

  6. movieman says:

    Coolest thing about “Game Night”?
    The on-screen reunion of Coach Taylor (Kyle Chandler) and Landry Clarke (Jesse Plemons).
    “Friday Night Lights” 4-ever!

  7. JSPartisan says:

    Hc, that’s a great point about Annihilation and Paramount. Seriously.

  8. palmtree says:

    ““Hanawood?” (China’s film industry is run by ethnic Han Chinese).”

    Hasn’t it just been we’ve replaced the first letter of Hollywood with a different letter? B-ollywood for Bombay. N-ollywood for Nigeria.

    So I guess we’d probably have to go with Chollywood or Collywood. I prefer Chollywood, since it also includes Hollywood within it, indicating symbiosis.

  9. Triple Option says:

    Have not seen Game Night but the trailer made it seem like something derived from Date Night, which a meh movie that I thought given the cast coulda been something more that a run of the mill studio comedy.

  10. Lynch Van Sant says:

    Saw a new tv commercial for Pacific Rim 2 last night and they’re definitely jumping on the Black Panther bandwagon by adding rap music and changing the focus to a bad-ass black hero who kicks butt.

  11. colosson says:

    Sinowood could be an option in the meantime. But perhaps is too western.

  12. Hcat says:


    I would take a look at the marketing again if it didn’t make me so queasy, but I thought it always focused on the black lead, thought can’t say anything about noticing the change in music. I have to admit I haven’t been following it closely and I tune out everything about it, it just looks awful.

    With PR2, Rampage, Wrinkle in Time, and Ready Player One set as the tentpoles for the rest of the season I am actually forlorn they don’t have another Fast and Furious coming down the pipeline.

  13. Bob Burns says:

    estimates started at $92M, then $102M, then $104M and $108M, now $112M. Same story as opening weekend.

  14. Sideshow Bill says:

    Finally saw BP last night. Holy crap was that fun. So much to unpack. I can go into the spoiler thread now. Michael B Jordan is a goddamn star. His final lines were a bit punch.

    Hope to see Annihilation this weekend. Loving the book.

    I am so so far behind on Oscar movies. Been way too busy this month. That sucks.

  15. Hcat says:

    It seems like half the Oscar movies are hitting video in the next two weeks, so if you missed them at the theater….

  16. Pete B says:

    I’m scratching my head at the lack of love being thrown Chadwick Boseman’s way for BP. Michael B, Jordan got to be the villain, and that’s always the more juicy role. Boseman had to not only be the main character, but allow room for all the others to shine around him. He had to be regal without being overbearing, vulnerable without appearing weak, and conflicted without looking wishy-washy. That was a tall order, and he did it magnificently.

  17. palmtree says:

    Actuals have BP this weekend at $111.6m. Wow! Its SECOND weekend is good enough for a top 40 best opening weekend. This is happening in February, people.

  18. MarkVH says:

    HOT TAKE: The Shape of Water is Guillermo Del Toro’s worst movie.

  19. Pete B says:

    ^ Worse than Crimson Peak? Ay caramba!

  20. MarkVH says:

    ^I really think so. Crimson Peak is lesser Del Toro, but it felt closer to his heart. This felt like a copy of a copy of a copy of a Del Toro movie. Some nice visual touches and Hawkins is magnificent, but that’s about all the appreciation I could muster for it. Think I even liked Pacific Rim better.

  21. Hcat says:

    Wasn’t thrilled by Crimson Peak but it was a solid picture and I dug the gothic themes and oh what a lovely cast. So I would place them.

    Crimson Peak
    Hellboy 2
    Pacific Rim

    I can’t tell you how much I despise Pacific Rim. Dull murky rain soaked action, paper thin characters, one decent sequence of tension with they young girl hiding from the monsters, they even screwed up the big independence day speech. I know it was supposed to be a live action anime and it succeeded on taking the worst aspects of the genre, the convoluted mythos, the constant breathless exposition, cardboard cutout characters, and a middle school sense of libido (she’s pretty, I love her, we saved the world, do we kiss? NO lets just nuzzle noses).

  22. Hcat says:

    So Disney is already at 536 for the year after this weekend. Figuring Black Panther has at least another 250 in the tank or likely enough to get them to 800 and assuming Wrinkle in Time doesn’t John Carter, it looks like Disney is going to break the fastest to a billion again. Even if Wrinkle underperforms that first day of Avengers will put them over the top with a few days to spare.

    I am not a fan of Disney but man its impressive that they have these gigantic years and then are still able to consistently top them. Its truly an assembly line, but I can appreciate a well run assembly line.

  23. palmtree says:

    Hcat, no Cronos? For me, that would be near the top.

  24. Hcat says:

    Palmtree, there are lapses in what I have seen no matter how thorough I wish to be. Horror movies are an unintended blindspot, still have both Cronos and The Addiction (That’s the Annabella Scoria one correct) to get around to. Completely ignored the Twilight movies but figured that since I have seen Thirst, Fright Night, the first two Blades, Let Me ins, Lost Boys, Lovers left alive and especially Near Dark I am still batting a pretty good average on modern day vampire movies. Crazy that John Carpenter made a vampire movie and that was the last one that came to mind.

    Being born halfway between the invention of sound and today means that I have two lifetimes of movies to watch. Sometimes that’s exciting, sometimes its exhausting.

  25. Pete B says:

    Crimson Peak is the only Del Toro movie where I was actually waiting for it to hurry up & end.

    Pacific Rim has a ton of flaws, but my appreciation for it grew after Godzilla came out the next year. At least PR provided monsters. And I didn’t think Idris fumbled on the ID4 speech.

  26. palmtree says:

    I’m not a horror guy myself, but I watched Cronos because it was Del Toro and because Criterion had it. And I was happy to say that like Get Out, Cronos transcends its genre.

  27. MarkVH says:

    Cronos is great. Flawed as hell, but a beautifully realized work of personal cinema. I’d gladly watch it before I popped on Shape again.

  28. Bulldog says:

    “I can’t tell you how much I despise Pacific Rim.”
    It’s really funny how two people can watch the same movie and come away with completely different experiences. I liked PR and look forward to the sequel. I thought that it deserves better at the box office considering that Godzilla was a snoozefest compared to PR. I get the criticism of the rain however and the looks of the sequel promises more daylight sun drenched battles so hopefully that works out.

    I walked away from Crimson Tide with extreme disappointment. It’s easily his worst for me. I don’t despise it however, as none of his films have fallen into that category for me.

  29. Hcat says:

    Pete, I wasn’t a big fan of Godzilla either, I get the idea of hiding the monster, but you have to give us people we can stand watching in the meantime. Thought Kong was halfway decent though from what I remember of it.

    I forget when PR:uprising drops, but I get my monster fix that weekend rewatching The Host.

    Bulldog, it might have been the context in which I saw PR that contributed to my dislike. I think it was the same time as Man of Steel which meant it was like the third of fourth world destroying rampage that I sat through in short order which had the adult leads act like awkward teens on opposite sides of the gym.

    And aside of having Hackman spout that awful speech about horses I quite loved Tide. :)

  30. leahnz says:

    lipizzaners are spanish, not portuguese, and they’re born black

  31. JSPartisan says:

    1) Chadwick Boseman is awesome, and he should be the face of MSCU for the next decade… easy.

    2) BD, you summed up my feelings about Pacific Rim. If you just compare it to Godzilla. It’s leaps and spades better, because it SHOWED MONSTERS FIGHTING ROBOTS! The same goes with why I love Kong more than Godzilla. IT SHOWS MONSTERS FIGHTING MONSTERS!

    3) HC, you referring to Disney as an “assembly line,” is just so dismissive. If anyone could do what they are doing right now. They would. No one is touching them. Countless studios have tried, with very talented people (for the most part), and have failed. They have failed to such extremes, that the Dark Universe, DCEU, X-Men Universe have shamed their studios, Sony running Spider-Man no longer happens, and FOX may CEASE to BE a STUDIO!

    Seriously. Disney has figured it out, and no one else has. They do not always succeed to this level, but when they do? They do it, because they have the right people running things (for the most), and everyone else? They have smart people. Who are constantly failing. Failing to execute, and failing to make movies that matter. Let alone movies that make some money.

  32. Hcat says:

    JS, I would not claim that Disney’s dominance is unique in film history. MGM dominated at one point by the same margin, Paramount owned the 80s much like Disney is raking up wins now. During that time I would describe Paramount as an assembly line as well. But Disney has not given us a Raiders yet (he says without seeing BP yet, but is anyone claiming BP is Raiders quality?) or a Terms of Endearment, Naked Gun, or Officer and a Gentleman. The assembly line used to drop a more varied product.

  33. movieman says:

    Mark VH: Glad somebody else said it first.
    I actually prefer “Crimson Peak” and “Pacific Rim” to “The Shape of Water,” too. (And I really, really like “Peak” and “Rim.”)
    Called the latter the best “Transformers”–and the best “Godzilla” movie–ever made.
    Kind of ironic since intimate, arthouse-y “The Devil’s Backbone” and “Pan’s Labyrinth” remain my favorite del Toros.
    As gorgeously crafted as “Shape” is, I never entirely bought the central love story.

  34. EtGuild2 says:

    Disney has definitely figured things out commercially. And yes, they’ve done it by nailing a formula. Over the last 5 years Disney has just 1 Best Picture nominee out of 43 total nominees. Pitiful. And 3 out of their last 4 nominees, dating back to 2010, were Spielberg helmed (THE HELP is the last non-Spielberg Disney BP nominee), so don’t expect them to get a nomination anytime soon again unless BLACK PANTHER makes it (it could).

  35. Hcat says:

    Weren’t all their recent best picture nominees DreamWorks productions? Did Disney even have a hand in greenlighting any of them?

    It will be the same circumstances if the Fox deal goes through, all of a sudden Disney will be back in the Oscar game simply by writing a check.

  36. palmtree says:

    Every studio only wishes it could have an assembly line that churns out hits. That was the whole point of the studio system at its inception. But to have it down to a science now, it’s pretty remarkable that even the calculated risks have huge payoffs. When Iger declared they were now in the franchise game, it sounded ludicrously prescriptive, but now it’s hard to deny the results of that decision.

  37. palmtree says:

    And to give credit where it is due, BP isn’t even the only recent Disney film set in Africa with a black cast.

    QUEEN OF KATWE not only starred Lupita Nyong’o and David Oyelowo, but also had a woman of color at the helm, Mira Nair. And it’s a pretty fantastic film too, as far away from the franchise fervor as Disney gets these days.

  38. Bulldog says:

    You got me Hcat. :-) Crimson Tide. Lol.

  39. JSPartisan says:

    Some people would put Das Boot in it, but the modern Submarine movie trilogy is The Hunt for Red October, Crimson Tide, and U-571. The latter being a really under appreciated sub movie. Crimson Tide is wonderful though despite it’s “TEST AUDIENCE” ending.

  40. Hcat says:

    Agree that U571 deserves more love, Mostow wound that film tight. If we are mentioning naval films that don’t get enough love, its a little hokey, a little too straight across the plate violins crescendoing at big dramatic moments, but I got a spot soft as a month old banana for Men of Honor.


  41. Stella's Boy says:

    Don’t forget Below. Another very good modern submarine movie.

  42. palmtree says:

    LOL AND I’m a big fan of the Crimson Kimono. Sam Fuller fans, anyone?

  43. Hcat says:

    Haven’t seen Kimono but dug Fixed Boyenets, Big Red One and House of Bamboo is near perfection.

    However Fuller’s sub film was not among his best.

  44. JSPartisan says:

    Hc, I freaking adore Men of Honor. It’s everything a docudrama should be. It’s just good, inspiring times.

  45. movieman says:

    Favorite scene in “MOH” is the one scored to the Temptations’ “I Wish It Would Rain.”

    Saw it in Toronto 2000 immediately after my first chat w/ Roger Ebert. Memorable day!

  46. JSPartisan says:

    That’s a solid training montage, MM. The entire ending of that film, features some of my favorite pacing in any film.

  47. JSPartisan says:

    I have not, but Thor should still be lacking an eye!

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
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Black Panther 7.4 3834 -26% 585.7
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A Wrinkle in Time 4.6 3980 -50% 49.1
Love, Simon 4.6 2402 NEW 4.6
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Death Wish 0.95 2676 -45% 27.5
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Ramen Heads 2,500 2
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