MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Super Bored Klady

Friday Estimates 2018-02-03 at 10.52.21 AM

This is the Friday the studios worked so hard to have.

The studio business starts again next weekend after a month off, essentially.

So here is the question… does Disney have responsibility to balance out the year for the film industry?

Black Panther would have opened nearly as well two weekends ago and perhaps played even better in the long run, with almost nothing in the marketplace to contend with for a couple weeks. Why is Disney waiting until February 16?

Ironically, Black Panther is already an aggressive move for Disney as is. March has been the month of non-summer/non-holiday triumphs for Disney in recent years, with Beauty & The Beast and Zootopia. They took BP halfway into February.

And I have to tell you, at risk of social media abuse, that Disney is using Black Panther to try to slingshot the launch of A Wrinkle in Time, which is in a category in which Disney has flailed in recent years, and which is not expected to be as well received critically as Black Panther. Disney looks for at least a six week window between movies that the studio sees as having blockbuster potential. Wrinkle is opening three weekends after Panther. And they only have opening weekend before the new, girl-powered Tomb Raider. Don’t assume I am pre-judging the movie. I’m just telling you what the factual tea leaves of history tell us about how Disney must see the film. (August has gone from a wasteland last summer to overripe this summer, with at least eight studio/”big” releases.)

Searchlight appears to have decided they want The Shape of Water to win Best Picture over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. They have expanded Shape more aggressively and probably don’t want to deal with the PC squad that keeps slapping at Three Billboards for what it isn’t. Either way, a great season for the distributor.

Sony Classics’ A Fantastic Woman will be over the $10k per-screen mark, presumably less slowed by Super Bowl tomorrow. Could come up just short. Nothing else will come close.

13 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Super Bored Klady”

  1. Heather says:

    I think Disney just wanted to grab the President’s day weekend and then have Wrinkle in Time set up for spring break. Seems like a 3 week gap isn’t that odd for them ..first weekend of May and memorial day have Disney releases this year and last. Thor followed by Coco three weeks later this past November as well. Having said that I could not be less excited about a Wrinkle in Time It’ll likely be their lowest grossing film this year.

  2. Bulldog68 says:

    I think opening Black Panther over Martin Luther King weekend would’ve been an aggressive move that would’ve also generated tons of free press, not that the movie needs it, but it would play well for several weeks also once it lives up to some of the early hype.

  3. Bitplaya says:

    Anybody else fear like a KKK attack or something similar opening weekend? It’s a legit fear of mine for Black Panther. The only thing working against it IMO is the Disney Fox merger since Rupert will have told his cronies to have a hands off approach.

  4. Heather says: that’s a little silly. Films starring African-Americans open all the time without anything like that happening. Can’t wait for the movie

  5. brack says:

    Aside from hacker losers who want to attack anything and everything Disney/DCEU nut jobs on Rotten Tomatoes, I’m hoping there will be no trouble at the theaters, at least not in my city. And not to do dog on Black Panther, but 3 good weekends would be a big win, unless black audiences love it and there’s strong repeat viewing. What is Disney hoping domestically anyway? I’m hoping it does well and that it is also good. Marvel Studiios has villain problems with first outings, but usually it’s made up with a strong lead and complimentary supporting cast.

  6. iothereturned says:

    Let the the alt right try. Black Excellence will not be denied. Also, those Oscar noms are catching on like wildfire. Woo. Their box office is scorching.

  7. PcChongor says:

    Sans PHANTOM THREAD. Just more proof that when Bowie died he took God with him.

  8. Joe Leydon says:

    Bitblaya is not being silly, but maybe not for the reason he thinks/fears. Anyone here remember a movie called New Jack City?

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    I don’t think that the KKK stuff is a significant threat. It’s a black actor playing a black role. Tons of that exist without any real hubbub from them. Now if Marvel in its next go round of these heroes hire a black actor, say Michael B Jordan, to play Cpt America, well watch all hell break loose.

  10. palmtree says:

    KKK is a threat at all times these days… Even in churches. But I don’t think it makes sense to avoid a movie. Because then they will have actually won.

  11. David Poland says:

    Heather… November is a whole different animal. In that window, 2 films in 3 weeks is their norm. And indeed, they have opened other films in short spring windows, but the second title was a Nature film or a smaller live-action Disney brand, not a big movie.

  12. David Poland says:

    Black Panther is quite good. And I don’t think repeat viewing will be at all limited to African Americans.

    Both Zootopia and Beauty & The Beast did over $100 million domestic after the third weekend. Panther may do the same… but harder with their own stuff and a crowded March in the way.

  13. brack says:

    David – race had nothing to do with my repeat viewing comment. Guess that would be an easy mistake to make though.

The Hot Blog

Quote Unquotesee all »

“Ten years ago at Telluride, I said on a panel that theatrical distribution was dying. It seemed obvious to me. I was surprised how many in the audience violently objected: ‘People will always want to go to the movies!’ That’s true, but it’s also true that theatrical cinema as we once knew it has died. Theatrical cinema is now Event Cinema, just as theatrical plays and musical performances are Events. No one just goes to a movie. It’s a planned occasion. Four types of Event Cinema remain.
1. Spectacle (IMAX-style blockbusters)
2. Family (cartoon like features)
3. Horror (teen-driven), and
4. Film Club (formerly arthouse but now anything serious).

There are isolated pockets like black cinema, romcom, girl’s-night-out, seniors, teen gross-outs, but it’s primarily those four. Everything else is TV. Now I have to go back to episode five of ‘Looming Tower.'”
~ Paul Schrader

“Because of my relative candor on Twitter regarding why I quit my day job, my DMs have overflowed with similar stories from colleagues around the globe. These peeks behind the curtains of film festivals, venues, distributors and funding bodies weren’t pretty. Certain dismal patterns recurred (and resonated): Boards who don’t engage with or even understand their organization’s artistic mission and are insensitive to the diverse neighborhood in which their organization’s venue is located; incompetent founders and/or presidents who create only obstacles, never solutions; unduly empowered, Trumpian bean counters who chip away at the taste and experiences that make organizations’ cultural offerings special; expensive PR teams that don’t bring to the table a bare-minimum familiarity with the rich subcultural art form they’re half-heartedly peddling as “product”; nonprofit arts organizations for whom art now ranks as a distant-second goal behind profit.”
~ Eric Allen Hatch