Gurus o’ Gold: Nomination Day (Page 1 of 2)

Rank Last Chart best Picture AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 3 The Shape of Water
2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 9 88
2 1 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 2 3 2 1 5 2 2 2 9 79
3 2 Lady Bird
3 4 2 5 3 2 5 3 4 9 68
4 4 Get Out
4 3 5 4 8 3 4 4 3 9 61
5 5 Dunkirk
5 5 4 3 7 4 3 5 6 9 57
6 12 Phantom Thread
6 8 9 8 4 9 6 6 5 9 38
7 7 Call Me By Your Name
8 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 9 36
8 8 Darkest Hour
7 7 7 6 5 8 7 7 9 9 36
9 6 The Post
9 9 8 9 9 6 9 9 8 9 23
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Guillermo Del Toro
The Shape of Water
1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 9 44
2 2 Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk
2 2 3 1 4 2 2 2 3 9 33
3 3 Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
3 4 2 4 2 3 5 3 2 9 26
4 5 Jordan Peele
Get Out
4 3 4 3 5 4 3 4 4 9 20
5 Paul Thomas Anderson
Phantom Thread
5 5 5 5 3 5 4 5 5 9 12
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Frances McDormand
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 10 48
2 2 Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
3 2 1 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 10 39
3 3 Sally Hawkins
The Shape of Water
2 3 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 9 27
4 4 Margot Robbie
I, Tonya
4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 10 23
5 5 Meryl Streep
The Post
5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 10 12
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Gary Oldman
Darkest Hour
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 40
2 2 Timothee Chalamet
Call Me By Your Name
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 8 31
3 3 Daniel Day Lewis
Phantom Thread
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 8 25
4 4 Daniel Kaluuya
Get Out
4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 8 15
5 7 Denzel Washington
Roman J Israel, Esq
5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 8 9
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 2 Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 45
2 1 Willem Dafoe
The Florida Project
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 36
3 3 Richard Jenkins
The Shape of Water
4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 9 23
4 5 Woody Harrelson
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3 3 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 9 16
5 6 Christopher Plummer
All The Money In The World
5 5 4 3 5 3 5 5 4 9 15
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 2 Allison Janey
I Tonya
1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 9 43
2 1 Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 9 38
3 6 Leslie Manville
Phantom Thread
4 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 20
4 5 Mary J Blige
Mudbound
3 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 9 15
5 4 Octavia Spencer
The Shape of Water
5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 8 12
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Lady Bird
1 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 9 36
2 2 Get Out
3 1 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 9 35
3 3 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2 3 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 9 34
4 4 The Shape of Water
4 4 2 4 4 4 5 4 5 9 18
5 6 The BIg Sick
6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 9 10
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 1 Call Me By Your Name
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 44
2 2 Mudbound
1 2 4 3 5 2 2 2 2 9 31
3 4 Molly's Game
3 3 5 2 3 4 4 3 3 9 24
4 3 The Disaster Artist
5 4 2 4 4 3 5 4 5 9 18
5 6 Logan
4 5 3 5 2 5 3 5 4 9 18
Rank Last Chart Foreign Language Oscar Noms AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 A Fantastic Woman
1 1 1 4 3 1 2 1 8 34
2 The Square
3 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 8 31
3 Loveless
2 3 2 1 4 4 3 4 8 25
4 The Insult
4 5 4 3 2 2 4 3 8 21
5 On Body And Soul
5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 9
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Faces Places
1 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 8 36
2 Icarus
2 1 2 2 3 1 4 3 8 30
3 Strong Island
4 3 4 5 2 3 3 4 8 20
4 Last Men in Aleppo
3 2 5 4 4 4 5 2 8 19
5 Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
5 5 3 3 5 5 2 5 8 15
Rank Last Chart Animated Feature AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Coco
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 40
2 The Breadwinner
3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 8 29
3 Loving Vincent
2 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 8 26
4 The Boss Baby
4 5 5 4 5 5 3 4 8 13
5 Ferdinand
5 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 8 12

The other 13 categories

2 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Nomination Day (Page 1 of 2)”

  1. YancySkancy says:

    Looks like a couple of Nathaniel R’s Supporting Actress votes got dropped, which throws off the results. His #1,2 and 4 picks are there, but not 3 and 5. Presumably, Manville would move into third place if this were corrected.

  2. Eric M. Van says:

    The Best Picture ranking is almost certainly wrong, based on the history of the last 11 years.

    The simplest thing you can do is look at what the best film of the year was *according to film critics,* per the year-end lists compiled at criticstop10.com. It turns out that the tastes of critics and Academy members correlate very strongly.

    Here’s how each Best Picture winner fared in #1 rankings, among the nominees.

    The Departed, 1st
    No Country for Old Men, 1st
    Slumdog Millionaire, 1st
    The Hurt Locker, 1st
    The King’s Speech, 5th (see below for 1 through 4)
    The Artist, 2nd to The Tree of Life
    Argo, 2nd to Zero Dark Thirty
    12 Years a Slave, 1st
    Birdman, 2nd to Boyhood
    Spotlight, 2nd to Mad Max: Fury Road
    Moonlight, 1st

    The years where the #2 movie bested the #1 are all easy to explain. The Tree of Life was hated by most of the people who didn’t love it (as evidenced by its 6.8 IMDB rating, shockingly low for a Best Picture nominee). Zero Dark Thirty was politically controversial, and Argo may have been helped by Affleck’s directorial snub. Boyhood was beaten by Birdman, a film about actors. And Mad Max earned it’s #1 because of astonishing action sequences and sci-fi production design.

    The King’s Speech is the only film to not rank 1st or 2nd, and it was such obvious Oscar bait that it may have been hurt in the rankings. Its victory over The Social Network was a product of marketing (the films ranked 2 through 4 were Inception, Black Swan, and Winter’s Bone, none credible winners).

    This year the clear #1 film is Get Out, and the clear #2 is Lady Bird. The Shape of Water is at present one critic behind Call Me By Your Name, but I suspect it would rank 3rd if the Village Voice had published their annual poll. Three Billboards is 6th, just behind Phantom Thread.

    The only credible winners, in order, are Lady Bird, Get Out, and The Shape of Water. I’d love to see the latter win, but given that LOTR: ROTK is the only fantastic film to have won, it would be a huge upset, much bigger than last year’s.