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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Blasé Klady

Weekend Estimates 2017-12-03 at 10.32.28 AM

Very exciting weekend.

$81,600
$69,500
$62,840
$28,460
$26,950

The Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour.

Three or four of these will be Best Picture nominees. earning their way there. The most remarkable run of the year is Call Me By Your Name, which set the per-screen record for the year last week and killed it again in its second weekend. It’s the most impressive per-screen as Searchlight pushed out The Shape of Water onto only two screens… still a great opening for Guillermo & Co, just not quite as amazing as Call Me.

On the next level down on the per-screen but up on the screen count are Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, each around the $4.5 million mark for the weekend on 1.430 screens and 1.194 screens respectively.

(Added Note 6p – I obviously forgot to include Dunkirk in this piece… which was just stupid of me. Apologies.)

Add The Post and Phantom Thread and you are looking at your Best Picture group, with one or two wild cards (Get Out, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Victoria & Abdul) filling the playlist with a few super-longshots (Wonder, Blade Runner 2046, Wonder Woman, Mudbound, Downsizing, The Last Jedi) holding hope.

Meanwhile, at the commercial cinema, Coco is doing well. Behind Moana by about $10 million after its second weekend. Coco has made a huge splash in Mexico, but we’re a while from knowing how the rest of the world will embrace the film. A success. Degree to be determined.

Justice League is fading fast. Still, it is closing in on $600 million worldwide. It can still lose money. Or it could make a few bucks, depending on how much the reshoots actually cost. In context, it is a carwreck. Figure it will close out with about $650m – $675m worldwide in the bank, well off of Batman v Superman. WB gained a viable Wonder Woman franchise this year, and now, a potential Flash franchise, but no one is clamoring for Aquaman, Batman is being replaced, Superman is inert and Cyborg may be of value in Teen Titans Go Live. There is nothing easy about building a “universe.” But remember, WB is not just having a hard time now. It’s been struggling with this for decades.

Wonder is the happy story of the season. Who saw this as a $100 million movie? You? Unless you are a producer on the film who spent a decade trying to get it made… LIAR! It is shocking to realize how Julia Roberts’ box office power crashed right after her Oscar-winning role in Erin Brockovich. This will be her first $100 million movie in a lead role since then, a long 17 years ago.

Thor: Ragnarok is still kicking. Disney is in full Star Wars mode now, but if I were them, I would have thrown some new TV spots at Thor this last weekend for the most fun comic book movie around. November is the weaker choice for comic book and animated movies, even though there have been massive hits from there in recent years. Still, Thor: R is now in the Marvel Extended Universe Domestic Top 10 and still may move up a slot or two. It’s already #7 worldwide and may well get past Guardians 2. My point? Thor: R would have probably generated another $100 million if it had opened in the summer and made the Marvel Top 5.

And how much did Coco leave on the table by opening in November?

Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express chug towards $100 million domestic. Murder is over $200 million worldwide, making it a solid money-maker for Fox.

Finally… documentaries.

Twelve million-dollar docs so far this year. Five were niche religion releases from Fathom.

In Our Hands: The Battle for Jerusalem – $2.5m
Is Genesis History? – $1.8m
Mully – $1.5m
Genesis: Paradise Lost – $1.4m
Chonda Pierce: Enough – $1.3m

Disney’s nature docs are not released like other docs, and as a result, Born in China leads all docs with $13.9m.

Of the rest, only I Am Not Your Negro was a 2016 awards qualifier.

I Am Not Your Negro – $7.1m
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power – $3.5m
Kedi – $2.8m
Jane – $1.3m
Steve McQueen: American Icon – $1.2m
Step – $1.1m

72 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Blasé Klady”

  1. Bender says:

    Had a great Saturday afternoon at the movies.
    Another Wolfcop has a week run here in my flyover city, it was partially filmed here. Theatre was packed for my 12:30 show, I was quite surprised at the crowd. Loved it, much improved from the first Wolfcop. It was hilarious and fun. I assume the guys got some help from the Astron 6 dudes.
    I was back in the same theatre and seat for the 2:20 Ladybird. It is an excellent film, so fully realized and heartfelt. Lucas Hedges character was so sweet.

  2. Geoff says:

    Never heard about Another Wolfcop but I did get to see Lady Bird on Friday – whole cast was strong but man, Laurie Metcalf….damn impressive and she has always been good, guess I haven’t seen her in anything for a while. Very good movie.

  3. YancySkancy says:

    Laurie Metcalf kills it in Louis CK’s series Horace and Pete — if anyone ever bothers to watch it again. Great show.

  4. movieman says:

    It’s funny/ironic to keep bumping into the same actors in year-end awards movies:
    Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Post,” “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Shape of Water;” Timothy Chalamet, “Lady Bird,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “Hostiles;” Tracy Letts, “The Post,” “Ladybird;” Bill Camp, “Molly’s Game,” “Hostiles;” “Jesse Plemons, “The Post,” “Hostiles;” Lucas Hedges, “Lady Bird,” “Three Billboards”….etc.

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    I really like Jesse Plemmons. He was fantastic on Fargo and Breaking Bad, and I loved him in The Master. he makes good choices. Hoping big things for him.

    Rewatched HELL OR HIGH WATER yesterday. the girlfriend had not seen it. God damn, what a great movie. New American classic. Ben Foster is SO great. And that final scene is perfect.

  6. Bulldog68 says:

    So Dunkirk is no longer a possibility?

  7. Js partisan says:

    I’ll just put this in caps: IF WONDER WOMAN ISN’T A BEST PICTURE NOMINEE, THEN JUST DON’T SHOW THE FUCKING CEREMONY. Also, Call Me by Your Name doesn’t work in this climate, and giving it a fucking bp nomination is just asking for problems. It just is.

  8. Hcat says:

    Um

    Written on September 21st

    “Quite possible that Julia Roberts will have a shot at supporting. She is royalty and depending on the performance of the film this could be seen as a comeback.

    I am of course basing this on nothing but anecdotal evidence but Wonder could be the surprise breakout of the season and be the big gooey crowd pleasing word of mouth hit no one saw coming. If that does come to pass Roberts would be the biggest target to direct the love to.”

    and then again on November 13th

    “But the thing to watch for next weekend is Wonder. I have mentioned it before but the book is really big with the elementary school crowd and I think its going to be the surprise hit this year. I can see this being the go to grandma is taking us to the theater film for the holidays, if word of mouth is positive this is crossing 100 million while people are scratching their heads wondering where it came from.”

    So some did see this coming.

  9. Alex says:

    @Js partisan

    WW shouldn’t be a best picture nominee. It’s good but probably not in the top 10 for most people this year. You can see it in the movie rating on imdb and other sites. 7/10 and 8/10 mostly. For some 9s or 10s it might be a highlight of their movie year (sad), but a few probably are also blinde by politics (female director, femals superhero ….). On the other side, very few 3 or below, so not many haters that vote against the movie for stupid reasons.

    And why?

    While the beginning and the middle are fine, the last third is simply too bad. False Ares and Real Ares everbody sees coming a mile away, standard cgi action overkill and the very stupid decision to make the heroes and some of the audience believe a terrible real war actually is the work of a god and not humans. Many missed opportunities to say something meaningful about war and mankind. Maybe some girls would have liked that and then cheered for their Wonder Woman even more.

    I hope there are enough serious voters left in the academy that see that this is simply a solid B Movie, nothing more.

  10. Js partisan says:

    Alex, the politics are why it should be there. You’re garbage… So go visit the version of the Hot Blog, where we are all conservatives and hate women. This isn’t that blog.

  11. movieman says:

    Bill- Yep, Plemons is a major talent. I think the first thing I saw him in was “Friday Night Lights” (the TV show, not the 2004 movie).
    That series hatched a lot of talent: besides Plemons, there was Michael B. Jordan and Taylor Kitsch (among others).

  12. Pete B says:

    Dave is right on Thor.

    Took the wife to see it today and it was a sold out showing. Not bad for a movie that’s been out 5 weeks.

  13. Poet says:

    An Aquaman movie is a lot more interesting to me than a Flash flick, no matter how charismatic the star might be. Comic book movies succeed by showing the public something they haven’t seen before. And between tv and movies, I’m not interested in seeing people run real fast anymore. Super-speed has shown us every last trick it has up its sleeve. That well is dry.

    Aquaman I’m curious about; but they better get it into theatres before the live action Little Mermaid movie comes out.

  14. Big G says:

    Am I the only one who had no freaking clue that Titanic was getting a small re-release this weekend? Had not seen or read that anywhere.

  15. David Poland says:

    Dunkirk is 98% in. My dumb error, now correctly. Apologies.

  16. Bulldog68 says:

    I sometimes forget my kids’ names. All good.

  17. Bender says:

    Since I first saw the trailer, I thought for sure The Greatest Showman would be a lock for Best Picture and Best Actor. Guess I’m the only one. Has it been previewed anywhere?

  18. Ray Pride says:

    Maybe the trailer IS the film?

  19. Geoff says:

    Wonder Woman could get a Best Picture nomination and I would be delighted if it did but if it doesn’t, I won’t be surprised – Justice League under-performing probably doesn’t help the cause nor does the new drumbeat of “Kevin Tsujihara needs to be fired” bullshit which has materialized over the past couple of weeks. Apparently the same executive team that greenlit and/or picked up Mad Max Fury Road, Creed, Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, IT, Wonder Woman, and The Nice Guys….which have been leading in market share for the past several months and has released at least four blockbusters which have grossed 5X their budget this past year…..no those are evil fucking incompetents now for under-performing at the box office with Justice League.

    And when did this deficient DC report card start going back “decades” Dave? :) You wanna rewind back to 20 years ago when the closest Marvel was coming was some crap produced by Roger Corman? You wanna rewind back AT LEAST ten years before Iron Man came out when the project was on-again-off-again several times over with Tom Cruise or Nicholas Cage slated to star at one point? Or how about five years before that to the early ’90’s when Reggie Hudland and Wesley Snipes were struggling to get a Black Panther movie going….the typically “easy” Marvel-based project that apparently is now coming out in a few months, only about 25 years after they first tried!

    Or maybe ask Disney how “easy” it was for them to try to chase that Batman money on their own back in the ’90’s with Dick Tracy and The Rocketeer….two films that I still LOVE by the way.

    None of this shit has EVER been easy – just being able to devote the cash needed to properly visualize characters like Superman and Hulk has always been difficult and both sides have quite a few failed projects to show for it.

    And honestly if DC-based properties are SUCH an albatross around Time Warner’s neck, then explain to me how they now have FIVE profitable shows on network television right now, how every new Arkham video game easily clears a quarter billion in revenue, or why I literally saw every OTHER girl alongside my daughters trick-or-treating this Halloween wearing Wonder Woman costumes??

    Warner Bros is more than DC, DC is more than just one under-performing team-up movie (just ask Fox/Marvel which has had a few of them), and to characterize this as some sort of long-term trend of continuous failure ignores a lot of the other factors besides how Justice League is doing at the box office this month.

  20. Js partisan says:

    Bd, my wife does that all the time. Once, she even listed the dog’s name before the kids name.

    Geoff, 1) video games don’t work like that anymore, because these fucks want games to be evergreen. However, the people who made Arkham were making a Superman game… That’s not happening.

    2) The Arrow verse just had an event, that was better than JL.

    3) That’s the problem. DC/Warners took a sure bet, and fucked it all up… Except once. The one time, they got it right and what’s their response to Wonder Woman? “LET’S MAKE FIFTEEN JOKER AND HARLEY MOVIE!”

    4) Thats the problem, Geoff. The perception is, that DC has the world’s most recognized superheroes, together in one movie, and they couldn’t beat the THIRD FUCKING THOR MOVIE! That’s a problem.

    5) it wasn’t easy for the MSCU. It took a lot of luck. Warners, have owned these properties for decades, and seemingly can’t figure this shit out. Perception, is reality.

  21. Bulldog68 says:

    JS you mean the dog doesn’t list before the kids? No one told me.

  22. Alex says:

    ———-
    Js partisan wrote “Alex, the politics are why it should be there. You’re garbage… So go visit the version of the Hot Blog, where we are all conservatives and hate women. This isn’t that blog.”
    ———-

    I’m from Germany. I’m not a conservative by German standards and definitely not by American standards. And I don’t hate women. And our mainly conservative government is lead by a woman for a while.

    But your position becomes very difficult to defend if you believe me or even just remove both issues from the equation and just argue the movie itself. Something you just don’t want to do, it seems.

    I simply think that WW is not good enough a movie for a “best picture” nomination. I argued my reasons up there in the comments. But, again, you did not argue the merits of the movie in your post.

    All you do is fight (not argue) for exploiting this movie and its makers for a political use, to compromise the integrity of the academy for political reasons and to weaponize the whole process for a political agenda. I on the other hand argue for quality as the main reason for a nomination. Just let the people vote for what they consider the best picture of the year.

  23. Geoff says:

    “3) That’s the problem. DC/Warners took a sure bet, and fucked it all up… Except once. The one time, they got it right and what’s their response to Wonder Woman? “LET’S MAKE FIFTEEN JOKER AND HARLEY MOVIE!”

    4) Thats the problem, Geoff. The perception is, that DC has the world’s most recognized superheroes, together in one movie, and they couldn’t beat the THIRD FUCKING THOR MOVIE! That’s a problem.”

    JS honestly, since when is ANYTHING a sure bet? I mean Spider-Man has been the top Marvel character for decades now….and he’s in his THIRD incarnation now? And he had to be propped up by Iron Man for a proper reboot so that he could make as much worldwide as SpiderMan 3?? :) :) And only to be beaten domestically by Wonder Woman on her first try…

    Hell I thought Star Wars was the ULTIMATE sure bet….yet Disney/Lucasfilm had to overspend on a half-assed prequel covering a lot of the same territory with Rogue One, only to re-shoot 40% of it because it didn’t end up being “Star Wars-y” enough?? And that’s not even talking about how they’re drudging further down the well with an even more expensive Solo prequel next year. Oh and live action remakes of The Lion King, Mulan, and Aladdin on the slate plus a sequel to Mary Poppins….such confidence, such vision.

    And Thor PLUS Hulk is a mini-Avengers prequel at about the same cost of the previous Avengers movie – if Marvel Studios had THAT much faith in Thor (even though he’s my personal favorite) as a property, then they would have followed their original plan of having a stand-alone Thor sequel instead shoehorning Hulk into it and making it look like Guardians of the Galaxy 3.

    Justice League underperformed, what’s the solution? Don’t have Snyder direct any more….DONE. Go the WB route and focus on the right filmmaker, focus on stand-alones, find the right match with a gifted or up-and-coming director, and let them make their mark on the character….DONE. I mean all of this bullshit about having a “five year plan” being the ONLY way to go….sorry but were Deadpool or Logan parts of five year plans? Nope they were matching up the right filmmakers with the right properties at the right time….and both will be as profitable as any MCU movie.

    Perception, reality, whatever….Warner Bros. leading all studios for 2017 in domestic box office which Disney will take the crown for at the end of the year….and they STILL needed a fucking Star Wars movie to do it. :)

    And beyond that, hell yes Wonder Woman is deserving of a Best Picture nomination – since the BP field was expanded just about nine years ago, what were the pure genre films to make that cut? The Martian, Avatar, District 9, Inception, and Mad Max Fury Road…..is Wonder Woman SUCH a significant drop-off in quality from that group?

    And Alex, you keep talking about “third act issues” as if that’s not an eliminating criteria for a Best Picture nominee….I can literally count on one hand the number of Best Picture WINNERS since 2001 that did NOT have third act issues, it’s also just as easy to list those which did:

    A Beautiful Mind
    Chicago
    Return of the King
    Million Dollar Baby
    Crash
    The Departed
    No Country For Old Men
    The Hurt Locker
    Birdman

    If we’re going to rule out Wonder Woman based on this criteria, could we examine those above films? Return of the King, Million Dollar Baby, and No Country for Old Men are probably the most egregious as those films come close to falling apart in the third act – hell ‘No Country doesn’t even really HAVE a third act. I loved The Departed and even most other folks I know who love that movie think that elevator climax is borderline comical…if Wonder Woman doesn’t make the cut fine, but let’s not act like it’s too deficient to get a Best Picture nod.

    And regarding politics honestly JS, IF Wonder Woman gets a slew of nominations….or Call Me By Your Name…..or whatever else short of the latest PureFlix/David A.R. White opus co-starring Sean Hannity, the folks at Fox & Friends and Breitbart are going to have issues with WHATEVER gets nominated – it’s their job to ALWAYS be pissed off at Hollywood or at least act pissed off at Hollywood. Hell they went after Frozen’s success for how “emasculating” it was, they’ll do the same with Wonder Woman. 😉

  24. Alex says:

    @ Geoff, you are right. Too many movies have problems in act 3. I’ve seen all the movies in your list and except for 3 I have no real interest in seeing them ever again (the exceptions are Birdman, ROTK, No Country). Two of them I actually dislike completely. Beautiful Mind because they changed to much of the reals story and Departed because I loved the original and Scorsese fucked up the death of Jack Nicholsons character, compared to the original.

    And yes it seems not to be an issue for an oscar nomination to have a bad third act, but I think WW is especially bad here. I think the whole setting in a real world war is a mistake if you want to be taken seriously by critics and academy voters and at the same want to make a kinda positive message movie for women. You can’t have both and they clearly chose the latter. The movie has no deep thoughts about Amazons as a female warrior race, not much inside comparing them to male warriors in our world, no regard for the guy who clearly has PTSD and then make the whole conflict the responsibility of a deity and not men. In my eyes, it’s a entertaining B-Movie nothing more.

    I actually would have enjoyed the movie more if Jenkins would have had the “balls” to let a women end this stupid war started by stupid men. An oscar for that anytime.

  25. Hcat says:

    Alex,

    Don’t know if you lost it in translation but when you said that people would champion WW purely for political reasons you sort of dismiss the possibility that many truly loved the film and the only reason for it to be nominated would be to give a condescending “attagirl” nomination (at the expense of another film) to it simply because it was directed by a woman. Now I won’t be too disappointed either way if it makes the ten (and won’t it be ten this year, there seems to be an abundance of projects people are rooting for). It was a great action film and the academy has a tendency to recognize those when they come around, hell Argo was little more than a tight little thriller and it took the big prize, and it packed a big emotional whallop for a considerable amount of people. I am more concerned that The Post will take top prize for it being “the drama that we need right now” than WW getting nominated for being “the blockbuster we need right now.”

  26. Hcat says:

    It took six weeks to grab that last 5 million and change but Kingsmen finally crossed the century mark. I always wonder if the studio just buys a couple thousand tickets on fandango to close the gap when they look like they are going to fall juuuuuuuust this short.

    Also it looks like Paramount will pass the HALF A BILLION DOLLAR mark at the domestic box office today. Just wanted to point out this monumental achievemen….what? its not 1983 anymore? Then disregard.

  27. MarkVH says:

    Why does Wonder Woman have to be a Best Pic nominee? Why can’t it just be what it is – a solid, three-star comic book movie that a lot of people saw and liked? Why does it need an Oscar nomination to validate its success?

    I don’t understand this weird need that comic book nerds have for their movies to be taken seriously by being lumped into the awards picture at the end of the year. The movie’s good but not THAT good, and that’s ok. I don’t understand why making a ton of money and being generally well received can’t be enough.

  28. Alex says:

    @Hcat: I never said “purely for political reasons”, not even close. I wrote: “For some 9s or 10s it might be a highlight of their movie year (sad), but a few probably are also blinde[d] by politics”.

    The “(sad)” is more a personal note and I should have left it out. But I didn’t generalize. My opinion is just that, my opinion. And I always try to argue it.

    I’m actually less concerned with The Post, because I think many will compare it to All the Presidents Men. If The Post doesn’t come close to that one, it probably won’t win “Best Picture” (a nomination is likely). But I hope this movies delievers.

    I haven’t seen Lady Bird yet because doesn’t come to Germany before April 2018. But if it really is as good as many say it might take a few political votes from WW and make them actual votes for a more deserving movie. Again, haven’t seen it yet, just a feeling.

  29. palmtree says:

    “I think the whole setting in a real world war is a mistake if you want to be taken seriously by critics and academy voters and at the same want to make a kinda positive message movie for women. You can’t have both and they clearly chose the latter.”

    Huh? Why can’t it deal with a real war and be a positive message for women too? I don’t get why those are mutually exclusive.

    “I actually would have enjoyed the movie more if Jenkins would have had the “balls” to let a women end this stupid war started by stupid men. An oscar for that anytime.”

    Aside from the balls comment, this is a dumb thing to say. “Women ending a war started by stupid men” would be exactly the kind of B-movie, simple-minded thinking that you seem so against. The fact that WW actually has a message that says we can’t stop war with easy fixes is what helps make it Oscar-worthy if anything.

  30. Hcat says:

    Alex,

    The blinded by politics is what I take exception with, and you sort of double down on that with the Lady Bird reference. Lady Bird would only take votes away from WW? Because they were both directed by women? Do you not see a scenario where both Lady Bird and Wonder Woman (and/or even Mudbound)make the best picture cut?

    Do you think any votes for Get Out (another hit in contention) are also “blinded by politics”

  31. Alex says:

    Like I said “a few probably are blinded by politics”. I’m not a native english speaker and I’m sure I have spelling errors, but “a few” and “probably” are words carefully chosen for my argument. And I stand by that. And from this “few” possible political votes a subset of “a few” might switch to a possible better Lady Bird. Again, words carefully chosen. Also please remember that JS Partisan said that “the politics are why it should be there”. So I think my point is valid and I stand by it.

    In general, no decisions (like who to vote for) are pure, they are always influenced by other elements, like political leaning, culture, social environment, education and yes also gender and race. It’s all subjective. And that’s why the Academy is supposed to become more diverse, so that the final result is a better representation of Hollywood as a whole and what it wants to be in the future.

    I expect that some of the 6000+ voter will vote for Wonder Woman, Lady Bird, Get Out or any other movie from/with black people or women, because they are from/with women/black people. And I also expect some deliberately will vote NOT for these movies for the same reasons. It’s as easy as voting for a movie from your own studio or a friend or colleague, simply ignoring every other movie.

    And of course WW and LB can both be in the Top 10. Again I said “a few” and then again “a few” of those.

  32. Night Owl says:

    “then make the whole conflict the responsibility of a deity and not men”

    Alex what movie did you watch, because I don’t think it was Wonder Woman. They specifically make the point at least twice that it wasn’t Ares at all and that men were making there own choices to push forward with the war and fight. That was the whole source of her disillusionment just before the final showdown, that men were not bewitched puppets but were actually making their own terrible choices. It’s like…the whole point…which you apparently completely missed.

    On a totally different topic someone was wondering when/if Kingsman would hit $100 million domestic. They finally made it this weekend. Not inspiring but with $400 million worldwide part 3 will be coming.

  33. Alex says:

    Yes, they alluded to that before, but the fighting ends with Ares death, a relieved Wonder Woman hovering in the front of rising sun after the fight, then immediately soldiers hugging because everyone else stops fighting. How does that look like?

    Also when you look back at BVS, Wonder Woman should be broken at the end of the war. But with this ending it simply is not the case. It’s probably just a retcon by DC after BVS so it’s very possible there once was another ending planned that would have made more sense for the story and the filmmakers couldn’t come up with a less simplistic and ignorant alternative to what came before.

    Again all that including the retcon is fine for a good B movie but in my opinion not if you want to be considered for the most influential movie award in the world.

  34. Hcat says:

    The fighting ends because the gas attack was the last ditch attempt at victory. The other generals had already accepted defeat. The soldiers stopped fighting because preventing the attack ended the war.

    As for the BVS stuff I don’t know if you can fault Wonder Woman for BVS being an incoherent mess.

  35. Alex says:

    But Wonder Womans backstory wasn’t a mess in BVS, it made sense. Wonder Woman – The Movie changed that and her story makes less sense now. We’re expected to ignore her role in and motivations in BVS.

    Anyway, I’m done. Waiting for the Avengers and a hopefully good Flash movie. A little bit CSI and a lot of fun with time travel. Shouldn’t be too difficult.

  36. movieman says:

    Alex- Mine will probably be a minority opinion, but “The Post” doesn’t come anywhere near the greatness of “All the President’s Men.”
    Its flaws–as perceived by me anyway–are essentially irrelevant because it feels an awful lot like the “right movie at the right time.” Which could make all the difference on Oscar night.

  37. Ray Pride says:

    Despite the end-to-end timeline of the two movies, why does it have to “live up to” All the President’s Men? Can’t it exist as a film on its own?

  38. Hcat says:

    Wow, apparently Grassly thinks we don’t deserve tax cuts because of our movie habits. Never thought I would hear movies listed on the list of vices along with booze and women (and do poor and middle class women then deserve a tax break since they are obviously not spending their paychecks on floozies?). So random he didn’t go with gambling or vaping or demolition derbies. Mentioning movie going as some wasteral habit of lazy immoral poor people seems so Music Man, “Starts with T which rhymes with P which stands for Pixar!”

  39. Geoff says:

    Alex, it seems some other already voiced what I would say about Wonder Woman but bottom line….yes the war setting works and it works WAY better than it should have as far as I’m concerned. When I saw that first teaser trailer and they kind of alluded to her entering ‘No Man’s Land, I had to cringe a bit….I was like, “How do you pull that off?? Mixing trench warfare with a superhero…” On paper that sequence should NOT have worked at all – and yeah you can snicker a little when you see her walking out in full red, white and blue and slo mo…..but then she’s crouching behind her shield and taking all of that fire and the score kicks in and it just fucking works! It’s doing what the best superhero movies do: turning something potentially very unsettling into something extraordinary…and the film doesn’t cheat either: three or four scenes later, she rides to Veld too late to see the entire town gassed. I’ll grant you that they don’t show a lot but they do as much as you can with a PG-13 rating – no doubt I believe that Jenkins definitely deserves an Oscar nod for threading that needle.

    I saw Lady Bird last weekend and it was fantastic – I see no reason by both films shouldn’t be nominated.

  40. Geoff says:

    And I have been hearing for decades that THIS movie or THAT movie is going to be the next “All The Presidents Men” from The Insider to Spotlight, both of which were fucking amazing films in their own right. But regardless, THAT ship has sailed….All The Presidents Men was lightning in a bottle just based on the timing of when it came out. I wasn’t even born when it came out but my parents would tell me seeing that film in theaters was INTENSE, it had such an immediacy to it that you couldn’t quite believe that you weren’t watching a beat-for-beat recreation of the whole story…which it admittedly wasn’t. The closest any film has come to capturing a moment in history THAT powerful in such an immediate way was Zero Dark Thirty which was absurdly shit on for political reasons….and had the shitty timing of coming out the same awards season as Argo.

  41. YancySkancy says:

    Hcat: I made a similar Music Man reference tonight on Facebook. First thing I thought of. Maybe if all the peons get Movie Pass, they can save a few bucks for more “acceptable” purposes, like buying guns or bibles.

  42. JS Partisan says:

    Mark, I don’t know if you are paying attention to what’s happening, but Wonder Woman is indicative of this. Wonder Woman, means something so much more in this year, and ignoring it for a BP nom… is just the Academy not getting it.

    Now, Geoff, Disney is the box office leader, without a fucking Star Wars movie. You also go on about shit needing to be lucky, but guess what? The DCEU suffered, because executives either didn’t care, or they wanted to get their god damn bonuses before a merger. The DCEU is now dead, for the most part, because of antipathy. That’s just ridiculous.

  43. Alex says:

    @ movieman: All The Presidents Men is also one of my favorites, but if The Post is a fine as Spotline, great.

    @ Geff: Yes the scene is excellent and probably the best truly heroic super hero scene of all the movies of the past 10 years. The whole “bring me to front fast” aspect is excellent. It’s really just the third act I don’t like and a few minor things here and there.

  44. movieman says:

    It’s pretty hard not comparing “ATPM” with “The Post.”
    Their timelines are a year apart; the Washington Post newsroom and Ben Bradlee figure prominently in both; and Spielberg’s movie ends w/ the Watergate break-in (which opened “ATPM”).
    Maybe the problem was exacerbated for me since I’m so familiar w/ the Pakula (I show it in class most semesters).

    Didn’t I read that Spielberg read the script for the first time just 9 months before the first screening?
    “Spotlight” is a better film, too.

  45. Hcat says:

    So I notice Greatest Showman has not been mentioned at all in year end conversations. Has it been seen yet? Isn’t the Globe screening deadline this week? I find it odd that no one is even considering that it might have a shot at contention. From the trailer it certainly looks like it could be a mess of a film, even laughably earnest, but if the songs are memorable and they are able to keep the tone from turning saccharine I don’t see why its not mentioned even in a crowded field.

    I look over at the Guru’s of Gold page and can’t imagine all of them will get in. Three Billboards and the Churchill feel like they will be recognized through the actors nominations and the BP noms will include mostly the big hits like The Post, Dunkirk, Get Out and possibly WW (though big hit is relative, I would throw Lady Bird in that category if it hits 75 million).

  46. amblinman says:

    I am totally into Disney buying Fox. We’re getting superhero movies whether we want them or not. So I’m into an MCU X-Men and FF. Especially the latter. The Thing should be a gigantic mainstream character. The Hulk with charisma.

  47. Hcat says:

    If Fox ends up at either Disney or Comcast I do look forward to the inevitable Alien themepark ride.

    But both of those have regulatory issues, though this admin might be less rough on Murdoch than he is on Warners. I think Amazon or Netflix would be the better choices. I would be much happier with Disney just buying back the rights to FF than having them take the entire studio, the last thing anyone wants is to have Fox attempt another FF film.

  48. Alex says:

    One thing I read in the last few years was the John Hickman version of Fantastic Four. And I see a lot of potential based on that.

    If Disney buys FOX and gets F4, they should make a PG version of the F4 with a focus on the 2 children (and their weird friends) where the F4 adults only play in the background. Ideally still live action and not animated and made in a way adults actually can enjoy it too, like The Incredibles. With the Avengers and X-Men and other smaller Team Ups still clearly in PG-13 territory, a pure harmless fun Fantastic Four should be a great addition. It’s a very specific wish, I know. But I think it could be great.

  49. JS Partisan says:

    Hcat, that would be great, but Amazon and Netflix are about their brands. They aren’t about being anything else. Which is a good thing.

    I once again state, that Fox isn’t going to just go away. It will still be there, because it already got absorbed once. Anyone here remember RKO? It will sort itself out, and the COMPLETE STAR WARS DEFINITIVE 4k box set will be a thing.

    I also agree with Man. The Thing should be all over the place, and that he’s not is a damn dirty shame. The same with the X-men getting some sort of quality place in the fucking MSCU. The mutants, shouldn’t be relegated to poorly made TV shows, and R-rated movies. The X-Men, should be REALLY MAINSTREAM! They shouldn’t be bogged down, with 18 years of Bryan Singer established bullshit. They should be big and bold, and the family aspect should be sold.

    Now, I am sure the people responsible for New Mutants and Deadpool, are wondering what the fuck this means for their films. I’d imagine… better marketing, Chinese access, and more money. I doubt, that Disney would force them to cut their films for pg-13 ratings. Where this trend goes after next year. Once those properties are in the mouse’s hands, are anyone’s guess.

    What I am excited for the most… a MSCU Fantastic Four movie, that lives up to what Peyton Reed wanted to do with the france 20 years ago.

  50. Mieville says:

    Fingers crossed for Disney/fox merger and James Murdoch taking over DIS.

  51. Hcat says:

    Well my sugarplum dreams would be Marvel be damned, Amazon does a hostile takeover of the whole of News Corp, and transitions Fox News into The Post Channel. Maybe they keep Baier, Wallace and possibly Smith, but scatter the rest of those cockroaches.

    “Fox isn’t going away….remember RKO?”

    Remember MGM? Remember United Artists? Remember Paramount? (not this weak soup, but the dominating star vehicle machine that gave us Don Corleone, Axel Foley and Cheech and Chong).

    Those entities didn’t survive the changing of hands all that well. Paramount’s has been a slower death but year after year the cracks spread a little wider. And Columbia has been very feast or famine under Sony’s care. And Coke’s before it as well though at least Coke had two best picture wins, Sony has zilch.

  52. Ray Pride says:

    Financial Times first floated that idea. Link on front page.

  53. Hcat says:

    See, I’m brilliant, if my writing ability was stronger than that of a glue sniffing orangutans I could have made something of myself.

  54. Triple Option says:

    Why do we want Disney to own or control any more content? Does Fox need to be sold? Disney’s the one who’ve cut back their own production schedule over the past decade or so, why then go out and acquire a full fledged studio?

  55. Ray Pride says:

    As more than one person noted, it’s like Demolition Man, where all fast food was Taco Bell. All could be Disney, with CEO James Murdoch.

  56. JS Partisan says:

    Hcat, FOX is only selling the entertainment side, and they are keeping everything else. This is why they want to sell to Disney, because they know like anyone knows, that Disney isn’t going to decimate the FOX content. Disney, needs this content, because it not only gives them A New Hope. It gives them thousands of hours of shows and movies, to air on their platform. A platform, they want to be big than Netflix.

    That’s why you want Disney to buy Fox, Triple. You want Disney, to put all of that content online, and give you a chance to watch it. Right now? It’s just in the ether, and no one can freaking see it. This way? It will be there… on the Disney Streaming channel.

  57. Mieville says:

    To get the IPs for their streaming service.

    Of course it isn’t realistic to expect Disney expand their production schedule to accommodate Fox, so redundancy and layoffs are inevitable.

  58. JS Partisan says:

    Mieville, you want a fucking MURDOCH INSIDE THE HOUSE OF MOUSE! GET THE FUCK OUT OF HERE… with that nonsense. Also, we have no idea what they would do with Fox. Disney has a lot films in the vault, so they aren’t pulling them all out. Which means… they may need fucking Fox to make some fucking movies. If you think layoffs are inevitable, then you know… let’s see what happens first.

  59. Mieville says:

    “The Fox assets in play are worth almost $50 billion, according to Alan Gould, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities Inc., and could translate into a 25 percent stake in Disney if they agree to a stock deal.” Bloomberg

    Well, Murdochs will have significant stakes in Disney. With the news floating around it’s only a matter of what role James Murdoch will get.

  60. Mieville says:

    The merger makes perfect sense, if Alan Horn and Bob Iger are to be succeeded by Stacey Snider and James Murdoch.

    I’d like Vanessa Morrison to take over Disney Animation and Pixar too after John Lasseter’s fired. Blue Sky and deal with Locksmith Animation need to be ended.

    Kevin Feige will oversee all Marvel movies from now on, which will be capped at 3 films per year to avoid saturation.

    Emma Watts can be promoted to the head of Fox division, I guess, if Snider becomes chairman. It’ll be home to Avatar, profitable films like Hidden Figures, Orient Express and The Martian. But the slate needs to be scaled down.

    John Landgraf may oversee Disney’s streaming service or move to a bigger role. Not sure about Dana Walden and Gary Newman though.

  61. JS Partisan says:

    Mieville, the Murdochs want to run sports and news. They also want to deal with Sky overseas. They also, aren’t getting 50 billion fucking dollars. If any talent is going to Disney. It’s the FX people, because that crew… aren’t idiots.

  62. Mieville says:

    “the Murdochs want to run sports and news.”

    Yes, Lachlan and Rupert do, but not James.
    http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-fox-james-murdoch-disney-marriage-20171205-story.html

    “They also want to deal with Sky overseas.”

    Yes, but not anymore if Fox’s sale to Disney includes their stake in Sky.
    http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/disney-fox-adds-uncertainty-fox-sky-takeover-bid-1202631195/

    “They also, aren’t getting 50 billion fucking dollars.”

    Yes, it should be 60 billion dollars.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/05/disney-and-21st-century-fox-closing-in-on-60-billion-deal-sources.html

    Of course Disney doesn’t have enough cash in hand, so the Murdochs will get the stocks instead.

    “If any talent is going to Disney. It’s the FX people, because that crew… aren’t idiots.”

    So…layoffs?

  63. Hcat says:

    Hey JS finally realizes this about more than comic books and Star Wars. Maybe the other fanboys will realize that 60 Billion is a lot to pay to have the Thing fight the Hulk.

    So the history is the first Pirates brought Disney into the PG13 realm and made a ton of money, National Treasure proved that was not a fluke but sustainable. Alamo lost TONS of money and the idea to drop Touchstone and focus only on Disney films that cost under 30 and over 100 million was born. Eventually the under 30 was dropped and only making tentpoles is profitable even with the near yearly John Carter, Tomorrowland disaster. However now that Disney is ditching Netflix as their ancillary delivery device they do not have enough content to sustain a streaming service, especially since it will be cheaper for people just to by the dvds than subscribe to a monthly payment.

    Fox would provide content for the adults in the room. Sure there are comic book movies and the chipmunks, but Disney sure as hell isn’t making Hidden Figures or Battle of the Sexes.

    I cant imagine that this is going to go easily, The sale of fox is going to tip the scales. Comcast should buy it just to keep it out of Disney’s hands. Warners should be worried because a Disney sale might keep Fox films off HBO. Looking at streaming as the future, whoever gets Fox owns a majority of HULU, and the largest portion of market share for theatrical and television production.

    But personally, having the House of Bamboo being bought by the Apple Dumpling Gang is absolute Heresy. Fox is a film company, Disney is a toy company, there is a legacy to think of, but Rupert was never one to give a damn about that.

  64. JS Partisan says:

    Hcat, you keep writing that; and this is why we can’t be the same age. Why? EVERY FUCKING PLACE I VISIT ON THE FUCKING INTERNET (Caps for EXASPERATION :D!) BRING UP MARVEL AND STAR WARS. EVERY… WHERE! It’s like, you seemingly think that because those movies aren’t for you, that the most successful franchise in the history of cinema getting cherished properties back… isn’t a HUGE FUCKING DEAL! It’s a ginormous deal, and will be the lead when this deal goes down next week.

    Here comes the crux of the deal, and it’s total bullshit.
    “But personally, having the House of Bamboo being bought by the Apple Dumpling Gang is absolute Heresy. Fox is a film company, Disney is a toy company, there is a legacy to think of, but Rupert was never one to give a damn about that.”

    Disney, before they owned Star Wars or Marvel. Before they had ESPN or any fucking network. They were FUCKING DISNEY! THE GENERATORS AND PROPAGATORS of MIRTH, WHIMSY, and DREAMS. If that’s not what the fucking world of cinema is about; then what is it about?

    Disney, is cinema. Fox, is also cinema, but when was the last time they had a woman direct a film? SEVEN GOD DAMN YEARS AGO! Look at their decision making. I can go on and on and on, but FOX as a FILM STUDIO is a bucket of gold, that’s covered in shit. I have more faith in Disney running that shit, than the turkeys who have. 2010, Hcat. 20FUCK10.

    Mieville, that’s some impressive Mcweenying, and I bow to it. However… James is going to get the Ike treatment, and put in a room somewhere. You know this, because who fucking wants to work with a fucking Murdoch?

    Also, it’s not going to be that damn high. It’s going to be high, but not that damn high. Again, watch it be like 70 fucking billion, but that seems so high for content they really fucking haven’t fucking utilized worth a shit this decade.

    But again, what makes you think layoffs? Outside of content. We have no idea what Disney will fucking do with Fox. I still hold out hope, that these fuckers realize Fox should be it’s own continuing brand, that does it’s own fucking thing. Why? CONTENT.

  65. Mieville says:

    Next year, Disney will release 11 films, Fox ~13 (excluding Searchlight). If Disney/fox merger is happening, I doubt both will release 20+ films per year in an already crowded schedule. That is, if Disney is to maintain its all tentpoles slate.

    What tentpoles Fox can possibly greenlit are: Avatar, the next film based on another Andy Weir’s novel, the children’s book adaptation from James Mangold. These are all potential hits that shareholders will love.

    But Fox also owns a lot of untested IPs that will be mid-budget movies, which as you said are of lower priority under Bob Iger’s Disney: comic book movies being made with Boom Studios, Fox 2000, Searchlight. Alien, Predator and Escape from New York remakes. Some of them will get made under a new leadership. But over time they’ll find them not so profitable and stick with tentpoles instead.

  66. Hcat says:

    Amma Assante directed A United Kingdom for Fox this year, just because something comes out from the Searchlight doesn’t mean that its not Fox, Searchlight is just a branding exercise.

    Mirth and Whimsy is what I am worried about. Fox has how many films in contention for Oscar? How many does Disney? I don’t want to sacrifice future 12 Years a Slave, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Wild and so many others so we can have a reboot of Home Alone.

  67. Doug R says:

    Having dragged my family to Wonder Woman 3x in the theater and bought it on Google Play and Blu ray I think I qualify as a fan. I’ll admit it’s good, but not maybe Oscar winning good.
    However, Patty Jenkins took a decently written story and directed the shit out of it. The staging of the bullets vs swords and arrows fight, the alley fight with the iconic bullet deflecting and the nazi fight in town were all beautifully staged.
    The studio didn’t want the No-Man’s-Land sequence, but Patty fought like hell to put it in, remininscent of MGM trying to cut “Somewhere Over The Rainbow” out of Wizard of Oz. I’d be happy as hell if Wonder Woman got nominated for best picture, but I think the real award worthy work is Patty Jenkins for best director.
    For your consideration.

  68. palmtree says:

    Doug R for the win.

  69. The Pope says:

    Saw THE SHAPE OF WATER last night.
    Have to say I felt it was never anything more than a pastiche. The emotions were shallow, the conceit was slim and the execution was very predictable. It was as if someone was doing an imitation of a Guillermo del Toro film.

  70. Hcat says:

    They announced the new director for Bohemian Rhapsody, But from the pictures that the Hollywood Reporter presented it looks like Singer just put on a wig and baggier clothes and snuck back onto the set.

  71. PcChongor says:

    Couldn’t disagree more with THE SHAPE OF WATER. Only film I’ve ever seen twice in theaters the same week. Really resonated with me, and it seems like the first of Del Toro’s films that can only be described as “a Del Toro film.” Still can’t believe he made it for $19.5 million. He could’ve made the entire Dark Universe for the cost of THE MUMMY…

  72. JS Partisan says:

    It just hit me, but it’s probably obvious. The fucking FOX to Disney deal, is the Murdochs once again demonstrating, that they should have never owned a production company. If they just hold on, hold out, and wait. They would probably be fine. This is a gross overreaction, to what media is right now, and not seeing where media is going tomorrow.

    This leaves us with a behemoth, but the behemoth at least wants to do something with all of this.

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