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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Santa Klady

Friday Estimates 2017-12-23 at 8.50.59 AM

Not a lot of answers in this Friday’s numbers. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is doing great, thanks.

Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is on the tracking numbers, which puts it at $60 million-ish for the 6-day open, the question being how it will catch on with kids and as a result, can it get to $200 million domestic? Then, the bigger question in RothmanVille… how will it do overseas?

Pitch Perfect 3 has its third different landing pad for theatrical release… first September, then summer, now Christmas week. This is one that probably should have looked for open space to run in February. Hard to get a read, comparing three. ery different openings. The film could end up at $110m domestic or $150m. It depends on whether it’s mostly played out by the end of next weekend.

The Greatest Showman is bad on many levels. Still, it feels like a cult hit that will be better remembered over time. Financially, look for a Why Him? gross on a significantly bigger spend.

Downsizing deserves better. So much air came out of the Paramount balloon – mostly with the people who were pushing this one out – that it’s unsurprising. Still, a shame.

Father Figures feels like a movie we have seen 300 times in the R-rated comedy era. Still, a crap launch that feels like a dump, hoping people will just go to see counterprogramming.

The Post pushes out on nine and does an excellent $60k-ish per screen.

48 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Santa Klady”

  1. movieman says:

    Poor “Hostiles.”

    Game over?
    It’s rare for a movie that bombs this badly in a limited awards launch to recover.
    Really unfortunate since it’s a terrific movie (easily Scott Cooper’s best to date) that deserves placement in the Revisionist Western canon…and features a career-best Christian Bale performance.

  2. Geoff says:

    So Dave now you’re following the lead of the trades and running defense for Disney too?? :)

    The film dropped 76% on its second Friday even though all schools around the country were on vacation yesterday, yet every headline is how “Star Wars is dominating” in Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Deadline….oy if only Warner Bros could count on such reliable PR back-up.

  3. Stella Boy says:

    Bright sure lives up to the hype. I hated it and was bored silly but I also couldn’t stop watching. Nothing at all works. The leads have no chemistry. The banter isn’t funny. It looks cheap and you can’t see anything. The action is tired. The story is predictable. The world isn’t well-established or interesting. If you are trying to make a big splash with a movie star and $90 million, deliver something better than this. I don’t think critics have been too harsh. It’s pretty shockingly inept and terrible. Is the script this bad? It’s hard to imagine someone reading it and thinking wow we need to make this based on what’s on the screen. So, so bad.

  4. PJ says:

    Is it really doing great when TFA jumped up 80% on it’s 2nd Friday while this one can’t even reach 40%? And that’s after the worst daily drops of the entire Star Wars series? During the holidays no less!?

  5. movieman says:

    SB- The Variety reviewer who opined that “Bright” is the “best Netflix original movie to date” was either (a) on drugs; or (b) the recipient of a really nice holiday “bonus” courtesy of the house that brought us “Stranger Things.”

  6. Bulldog68 says:

    Big drop for sure, but the calendar still favors TLJ to perhaps come in between Avatar and Titanic when all is said and done. The combo Jumanji/PP3/Showman is stealing away a few million for sure. Add in the still beating Coco and Ferdinand and there is a lot of family offerings out there.

    No one is shedding any tears over TLJ. It’s only the 3rd biggest 8th day gross ever, and the seesaw between it and Jurassic World should tip back in it’s favour over the next few days.

  7. Bender says:

    TFA’s second Friday was Christmas Eve…how can you compare that to a Friday when people are still shopping and kids aren’t out of school til 3pm. I went to see Greatest Showman at 2pm yesterday and the Cineplex was empty. Come out at 4 and the lobby was BUSY. Showtimes didn’t begin until 1:30, next Friday there are shows starting from 9am.

  8. Stella Boy says:

    Amen to that movieman.

  9. Dorney says:

    SB, the weird thing about Bright is how cheap it looks for 90 million dollars. You don’t expect the Avengers but this looks like the pilot for a TV show not an attempt at a Hollywood blockbuster. The only upside for the film is that Will Smith still has charisma to burn and really works to imbue the material with something approaching an emotional core, which frankly the script has not earned.

  10. Dr Wally Rises says:

    I like everyone involved in ‘Bright’ and was looking forward to it, but…… yeesh. The movie starts out strong but heads downhill rapidly once the business about magic wands in that apartment block enters proceedings. Netflix do better at present when they buy up movies externally and give them a platform (Okja, Mudbound) than on their own in-house content.

    It’s interesting (and a little sad ‘cos I loved the movie) that Coco has fallen off so rapidly. The $230 million people were initially forecasting after Thanksgiving won’t be happening. Leaving aside the tossed aside ‘Good Dinosaur’ then this will be Pixar’s lowest grossing original since A Bugs Life nearly twenty years ago. A shame – with Lasseter out of the picture you can expect Nemo / Monsters Inc 3 in short order.

    I always felt that Greatest Showman was Fox’s thank-you / leaving present to Jackman for seventeen years as Logan. Strictly a loss leader. So I’m not surprised it’s opening soft.

  11. Nick says:

    Jumanji bad?

  12. Stella Boy says:

    Yeah it’s stunning how cheap it looks considering the reported budget. It’s so poorly lit and you’re watching wondering where all the money went. A tax scam? It’s not on screen. And it becomes so dull once they get the elf and wand. So many absurd and boring shootouts. Good guys can’t miss and bad guys hit nothing, etc.

  13. Geoff says:

    Bender, yesterday was the Friday before Christmas Monday – 99% of the schools in country were on vacation and half of the professional world was taking off work. I’m not saying that The Last Jedi isn’t going to make money but sorry dropping 76% on your second Friday and on a holiday Friday no less is NOT promising.

    Sure it will gain some back throughout next week….but The Force Awakens and Rogue One had similar release schedules and the same advantages that come along with them. Many folks were predicting JUST a few weeks ago that this was a $2 billion movie….now I think Disney/Lucasfilm would be ECSTATIC with ‘Ultron numbers around $1.4 billion which is great mind you, but also a 30% drop from The Force Awakens. And that’s the ceiling at this point – so BEST case scenario now, TLJ is looking at a bigger domestic drop than Ultron from the first Avengers, Justice League from BVS, Amazing Spiderman 2 from the first one, and Star Trek Beyond from ‘Into Darkness. And this is for a franchise that is apparently determined to release a new one EVERY year….with the next one (Solo) six months away and possibly costing over $400 million.

    If Kennedy and crew are just flat-out dismissing the backlash at this point and obstinately sticking to their plan (if they even really had one), then they’re just not thinking of the long-term viability of the franchise.

    I’m guessing of course that they’re probably not: Rian Johnson is not getting his stand-alone trilogy, JJ will retcon a bunch of stuff back in Episode IX, and mark my words… avoid the fan backlash they had this time and following the Marvel model, come November 2019 there will be advance “fan screenings” all over the country for Episode IX featuring Q&A’s with JJ, Hamill, and MAYBE even Lucas. :) Fuck the Mystery Box bullshit, they’re going to work to get early “buy-in” from the fans the next time around.

  14. Dorney says:

    SB – you’re right about how cheap it looks. As a contrast, I watched Universal Soldier: Day of Reckoning a few weeks ago and that looked more expensive looking – as a DTV film. Aside from the presence of Will Smith, if you had told me Universal Soldier was the pricier film then I would have had no trouble believing that. One example is – very mild non-plot spoilers – a set used in the first third of the movie is returned to for the “big” action climax. The action is tedious and repetitive and honestly TV level. I am sorry to keep banging on about this but, like Dr Wally, I was quite looking forward to this thinking it could be good pulpy fun.

    Geoff – agreed Lucas Films must be seriously considering a course correction after TLJ. I liked it but a large number of people I spoke to were not just disappointed but pretty angry about some of the decisions, particularly regarding Luke.

  15. Bender says:

    Canadian schools didn’t get out for vacation until 3pm yesterday and no adult I know took the day off. It was a regular Friday here. Like I said, no early matinees. Today through Jan 8th, shows from 9am.

  16. Nick says:

    Greatest showman = yet another film where you’re forced to ask who in the fucking world thought this would make money?

  17. Geoffs says:

    Sorry Bender as I did not consider Canadian schools – still there is no real justification for a 76% drop on the second Friday when MORE folks are available for matinees besides one of three factors: 1) intense competition, 2) shitty word of mouth, and/or 3) atypical front-loading from an inflated opening weekend. Rogue One had a heavily-hyped Illumination entry on its second weekend and held better

  18. Dr Wally Rises says:

    “Greatest showman = yet another film where you’re forced to ask who in the fucking world thought this would make money?”

    As above Nick – Jackman’s Logan leaving present. I remember way back that Bill Murray got to do The Razor’s Edge as a Ghostbusters sweetener. Same type of deal. Loss leading is a thing.

  19. Mostly Lurking says:

    Turned out well financially, but I kind of thought Logan was Jackman’s Logan leaving present.

  20. Nick says:

    This is why fox just got sold. This thinking doesn’t make sense anymore and it really never did. It’s a bunch of bull shit rationalization.

  21. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff, is pretty much on fucking point. TLJ is flailing. It’s SW flailing, so it’s not going to be other film flailing, but the backlash is real. How LFL deals with the backlash, is anyone’s guess, because SW isn’t special anymore. You can give me all of your Boomer folksy dissing, but it’s not. Rian Johnson, sucked the specialness right out of the franchise, and I am totally checked out for IX.

    It doesn’t matter what JJ does to fix Rian Johnson’s mess. They had an opportunity, and this is what they gave millions of people. You can’t put the genie in the bottle, and I hope to god Mark Hamill doesn’t fucking come back for IX. Rian, saw that version of the character as being dead, and Jake Skywalker should stay that way.

    I waited 34 years to see Luke Skywalker on the screen again, and I am still waiting. It is a lot of bullshit, that Disney gets this kind of cover on a movie, that is FLAILING! If anything, I hope Kennedy loses her job over this. God bless George, but he put the wrong person in charge of this property. He put a competent person instead of a fan, and you need a fan to prevent bullshit like the Last Jedi.

    Say or state what you want about Kevin Feige, but he sure as shit wouldn’t make a 2bn movie, then follow it up with two middle fingers, and screaming, “FUCK YOU,” at the audience.

  22. Christian says:

    Thanks, Movieman, for calling attention to the “Hostiles” opening. Sad. I’ve been rooting for that one, which I think is a solid, uncompromising Western. We need more of those. I guess I’m glad we at least got this one.

  23. Bender says:

    I don’t know how you can compare TFA and TLJ first week grosses when TFA had a whole week of kids off from school and TLJ is just starting its kids off from school week.
    I’m reserving judgement til after Christmas. If TLJ doesn’t do at least $35-38 million Christmas day, then its flailing.

  24. Dr Wally Rises says:

    More money taken in Week 1 than any other movie in history BAR ONE. This equates to –

    “Flailing”. “I hope that Kennedy loses her job over this”.

    Man I love JS, and I do mean that sincerely. I always think of the James Earl Jones line to Costner in Field of Dreams – ‘I wish I had your passion Ray. Misdirected as it may be, it is still a passion’.

    Merry Christmas to everyone here, stay healthy in body and mind and I look forward to seeing you here next year.

  25. palmtree says:

    Geoff, your repeated 76% figure is true only if you include the Thursday advance screenings that are lumped in with opening Friday. Really it’s a 55-60% drop. Still not great but not nearly as bad.

  26. palmtree says:

    Greatest Showman????? A movie musical around the holidays? When has that EVER worked??????

    Except for Les Miz, Chicago, La La Land, Dreamgirls…all opened in December and did over $100m…and had Oscars to show for it as well. Not so dumb after all, huh?

  27. Geoff says:

    Palmtree, so suddenly we’re holding Star Wars to different standards to how EVERY other opening weekend is reported? But yeah a drop around 60% for a Friday that is part of the Christmas break in almost every part of the country is still pretty lousy – the weekday numbers will certainly mitigate a lot of that but I’m sure if you told the Lucasfilm folks just a few weeks ago that their second Friday would be only 9% above Rogue One’s after the opening weekend was more than 40% higher, they would have laughed you out of the room. Rogue One wasn’t exactly a word-of-mouth hit itself.

    Like I said above, $1.3 to $1.5 billion would be champagne celebrations for just about every other franchise including the MCU and Fast/Furious at this point but not the highly anticipated sequel to the highest grossing film ever NOT directed by James Cameron.

    Speaking of which, novel idea: why NOT slow things down a bit for Star Wars…say release one every OTHER year, which will be made easier if you can alternate them with Avatar sequels for a few years?

  28. palmtree says:

    “Palmtree, so suddenly we’re holding Star Wars to different standards to how EVERY other opening weekend is reported?”

    YES, because Star Wars is an outlier. TLJ’s second biggest Thursday advance ever is a special situation? For the record, the other two non-Star Wars $200 million openers (Jurassic World and Avengers 1) relied on $18m and $27 Thursday openings respectively, a smaller percentage of their respective weekend totals.

    And yeah, it doesn’t change the narrative too much, but at least it’s a more accurate apples to apples comparison.

  29. movieman says:

    Wouldn’t it have been smarter for WB to open “The 15:17 To Paris,” “12 Strong” or “Paddington 2″ instead of “Father Figures” this Christmas? (OK, the Weinstein pick-up might have underperformed because of all the kid movie competition. But the other two? Would’ve had the “Rah-Rah Team America” market all to themselves.)
    I’m still trying to grasp the thinking behind WB’s decision to finally release/dump a long-delayed “problem” movie at Xmas. Wouldn’t Labor Day or the first weekend of January been less conspicuous/embarrassing?

  30. JS Partisan says:

    Wally, thanks and all, but come on! It’s flailing like a SW movie, and no other series flails like this. I understand, but it’s flailing over own goals. Kennedy and Johnson, had a year to understand where TFA stood, and what fans wanted from that film. They didn’t have to meet all of those expectations, but what people wanted was a known entity. How did they respond? FOUR MIDDLE FINGERS, AND TWO, “FUCK YOUs!” It’s just… all of this… is just so stupid, and Kennedy lets it happen because? SHE ISN’T A FAN! You need someone invested in the property on some sort of fan level, and not just a great producer. LFL again, shows why the likes Kevin Feige and Marvel Studios are on their own level, and everyone else? Are fortunate to get what they get.

    Again, it is what it is, but this movie was supposed to be a world killer. Right now? Pretty good, but falling off. SW? REYNO SAGA FILMS? Not supposed to play like a story film, and that’s just facts.

  31. JS Partisan says:

    Oh yeah. MERRY XMAS EVERYBODY! It’s not always about baby jesus. It about festiveness, good will, and peace on earth for all us humans. May you all get more than you need, love all around, and may you have plenty of leftovers! If none of that? Have some fun. It’s fucking Xmas!

  32. Doug R says:

    Was looking at RT and noticed the low score for “Downsizing”. Even their audience score wasn’t great. I really liked Sideways, what’s going on?

  33. Heather says:

    Got news for you guys..most kids were not on holiday yet. Saturday was the first day of Christmas break. TLJ opened essentially a week earlier (ie the week before kids went on break) so things will even out. Everyone thought the movie would open around 200 be that by 10% Most predictions had it making $650 domestic which it’s still on track to do. But you’re’s not going to match the biggest domestic grosser of all the sky is falling?

  34. palmtree says:

    So the problem of equating box office to audience reaction is this…

    Historically, there’s a significant drop in the second films in Star Wars trilogies. Between Star Wars and Empire AND between Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones, there’s a huge disparity downward.

    Then in both of those trilogies, the third installment splits the difference and ends up between the first and the second installments. Return of the Jedi and Revenge of the Sith both do this.

    Since I’d argue that Empire is better than Star Wars and Attack of the Clones is better than Phantom Menace, then I’d be arguing against the box office as the predictor of quality or audience affection. The first installments earning more money seems to have something to do with it being first and generating new excitement, not necessarily that the second was a huge letdown (unless you think Empire was a letdown too).

    So I don’t think lower box office equals less love for the new movie. BUT having said that, there are numerous people (not die-hard fans but regular moviegoers) I’ve encountered who didn’t like TLJ. And I’d say that it’s never outright hatred, but it is somewhat influenced by the negative reactions they’ve read online. In other words, if they would have possibly enjoyed it on their own, now they are skewing towards disliking it. I’d argue that the tarnishing of the legacy goes both ways…in the quality of the movie but also in the ways it gets spun.

    But even if there’s a huge amount of the people who don’t like TLJ, we’re still only looking at a box office result entirely in line with Star Wars box office history. In other words, no appreciable change from exactly what history would have you expect.

    So when DP says it’s fine, I think this is what he’s referring to, not some Disney narrative.

  35. PTA Fluffer says:

    The emotionally-invested spin in this thread is ridiculous. As palmtree says, the drop is right in line with the other “second episodes” of SW. GOOD POST.

  36. Sideshow Bill says:

    JS Partisan says:

    “Oh yeah. MERRY XMAS EVERYBODY! It’s not always about baby jesus. It about festiveness, good will, and peace on earth for all us humans. May you all get more than you need, love all around, and may you have plenty of leftovers! If none of that? Have some fun. It’s fucking Xmas!”

    That was genuinely moving. Thank you, JS. And same to you. I’m not religious at all but I LOVE Christmas and believe in it’s ability to heal rifts, bring calm and happiness and peace even for a day. This is my first Christmas with a significant other since my wife died in 2013 so I am very, very excited.

    I’m seeing TLJ today. I may have attacked your comments but I’ll keep your viewpoints in mind as I watch. Respect to you and, yes, your “passion” as crazy as it may be sometimes.

    Happy holidays to everyone. This is one of the few blogs/boards I post on anymore because it lacks the childish baloney (for the most part). Thanks to David for providing the forum.

  37. GdB says:

    A %77 drop as reported by Forbes is not in line with V and II. It’s the biggest drop of any SW movie so far. Including Rogue One. According to Forbes. Though tbf, Mendelson gives a pretty passionate defense of the numbers through Forbes too.

  38. Triple Option says:

    I saw Downsizing and it wasn’t Sideways nor Descendantsesque. It was very short and not as deep or profound as you might expect. I’m guessing quite a bit relating to social commentary was cut, as some things come up that were left sort of on the peripheral. Not that I was necessarily thinking it had to have some social-societal message but it was right there and sorta passed over. It was kinda light and enjoyable but I thought there were some one-note jokes and bit they didn’t run far enough with. Overall, unfulfilling.

  39. palmtree says:

    I addressed the 77% or 76% drop earlier in this thread. It’s really only like 58% if you’re being fair.

  40. JS Partisan says:

    Mendelson ran here for years, so he learned something worth a damn to get a job at Forbes. My point again, is that the backlash is real, and there wouldn’t be a backlash. If Kathleen Kennedy, took a moment to realize where TFA stood, and maybe adjusted TLJ somewhat accordingly. You don’t have to do everything fans wanted, but some of this shit is just egregious.

    I also stand by this one point: WHO FOLLOWS UP THE NUMBER 3 BOX OFFICE FILM OF ALL-TIME, WITH A FILM THAT REPUDIATES THAT FILM? Oh. I know. KATHLEEN FUCKING KENNEDY AND RIAN FUCKING JOHNSON! This is insane to me, and yes, Kennedy should lose her job over it. She should be replaced by a woman, but a woman who actually gives a shit about SW.


  41. movieman says:

    Triple- You thought “Downsizing” was “very short”? Or did you mean that metaphorically, lol?
    My biggest beef w/ the film–which I really liked btw–was that it was maybe 15-20 minutes too long.
    No way did it need to be 135 minutes.
    I think the problem audiences (who gave it a CinemaScore “C”) are having is that it’s simply not the movie Paramount (very poorly) sold them: a goofy-silly “let’s get small” comedy.
    Found the second, more serious half both provocative and, at the end, quite moving. And there are a lot of laughs, some of them too easy, in the first half, too.
    Not surprised it’s tanking. (I am surprised that “Father Figures” is actually managing to do even worse at the holiday b.o.) But like most Paynes, it’ll probably pick up a fervent cult following down the road.

  42. Bender says:

    I did not like Downsizing. It brings up so many big ideas/themes and then doesn’t do anything with them. Overpopulation, climate change, migrant workers…
    I didn’t laugh once. Hong Chau was excellent, though. Matt Damon very bland performance.

  43. Doug R says:

    JS, seriously MORE producer’s notes? Then you end up with Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer.

  44. Pete B says:

    Echoing Heather, the schools were still in session here on Friday as well.

    One giant reason TLJ is better than the prequels? When Luke explains the Force to Rey, he never says “midichlorians”.

  45. movieman says:

    Bender- Clearly I disagree w/ you about “Downsizing,” and Damon’s performance which I thought was solid.
    Hong Chau definitely steals the movie, though.
    ‘Tis the season to dump on Matt it seems.

  46. JS Partisan says:

    Pete, you so clever. The whole fucking point about MIDICHLORIANS, was Qui-Gon trying to create tangible proof of his faith. If you pay attention to that movie. No one else in the jedi order… gives fuck one about this shit. Qui-Gon does, because he is a true believer, but he’s a true believer that wants TANGIBLE PROOF! If you don’t find that interesting, then… you aren’t John Locke.

    The Last Jedi, treats the force like shit, and sucks the specialness right out of Star Wars. It’s really atrocious in every single way, but critics really love it!

    Doug, Disney should let someone from the story group, lead LFL. Everything you read about them, or following them on twitter, screams, “STAR WARS FAN.” If Kennedy were a Star Wars fan, that shit with Luke wouldn’t have happened.

    You can go on about complexity and other shit, but that’s just such a waste of Luke Skywalker. My audience, really had the air sucked out of it, when they realized Luke was dead. This sort of shit, just wouldn’t fly in a Marvel Studios movie, because Kevin never wants to flip off his audience. That’s why LFL needs someone, who gives a shit.

  47. Doug R says:

    Kennedy has been working with Lucas and Spielberg since Raiders of the Lost Ark.

  48. movieman says:

    Who else remembers that Kennedy’s husband, Frank Marshall, began his career working w/ Peter Bogdanovich?
    Marshall even had a small role in “The Last Picture Show” (which was also his first behind-the-camera job).

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The Atlantic: You saw that the Academy Awards recently held up your 2001 acceptance speech as the Platonic ideal of an Oscar speech. Did you have a reaction?

Soderbergh: Shock and dismay. When that popped up and people started texting me about it, I said, “Oh, it’s too bad I’m not there to tell the story of how that took place.” Well. I was not sober at the time. And I had nothing prepared because I knew I wasn’t going to win [Best Director for Traffic]. I figured Ridley, Ang or Daldry would win. So I was hitting the bar pretty hard, having a great night, feeling super-relaxed because I don’t have to get up there. So the combination of a 0.4 blood alcohol level and lack of preparation resulted in me, in my state of drunkenness crossed with adrenaline surge. I was coherent enough to know that [if I tried to thank everyone], that way lies destruction. So I went the other way. There were some people who appreciated that, and there were some people who really wanted to hear their names said, and I had to apologize to them.
~ Steven Soderbergh


“I have made few films in a way. I never made action films. I never made science fiction films. I never made, really, very complicated settings, because I had modest ambitions. I knew they would never trust me to have the budget to do something different, so my mind is more focused on things I know. So they were always mental adventures I wanted to approach and share. Working for cinema with no – not only no money, but also no ambition for money. I was happy and proud [to receive the honorary Oscar] because of that, that [the Academy] could understand what kind of work I have done over 60 years. I stayed faithful to the ideal of sharing emotion, impressions, and mostly because I have so much empathy for other people that I approach people who are not really spoken about. I have 65 years of work in my bag, and when I put the bag down, what comes out? It’s really the desire of finding links and relationships with different kinds of people. I never made a film about the bourgeoisie, about rich people. about nobility. My choices have been to show people that are, in a way, more common and see that each of them has something special and interesting, rare and beautiful. It’s my natural way of looking at people. I didn’t fight my instincts. And maybe that has been appreciated in the famous circle of Hollywood.“

Agnes Varda