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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates

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27 Responses to “Weekend Estimates”

  1. JS Partisan says:

    53 percent is okay, when your competition combined, makes more in the weekend than you do. This again, leads me to what is JL doing next weekend? Does it top Thor’s opening weekend? Is there enough audience out there for it? All of a sudden, this shit is all fucking crowded, and five days later we have Coco. All of the Fridays in which they could have opened these movies, and here we go into a crowded ass Thanksgiving.

  2. Hcat says:

    Wow that is a massive gross for Lady Bird. If they can get the word out beyond the indie crowd, this will easily be their top film. I am not always impressed with their movies but I am always impressed by their hustle.

    And not a bad open for Daddy’s Home. Luckily Paramount spent 70 million on a comedy sequel so they won’t break their streak of losing money on every single release this year.

  3. hcat says:

    Saw an ad for The Star and WOW, just wow. A crudely animated sub shrek talking animal centered around the Nativity? I’m not religious in the least and still feel a bit insulted by the irrelevance they are approaching this with. People are going to go in for a religious tale and end up with a wacky “You sat on me and now I am stuck on your butt” cartoon.

    Don’t think that JL will get the same bump that Avengers did and will certainly fall short of WW and likely BvsS.

    But the thing to watch for next weekend is Wonder. I have mentioned it before but the book is really big with the elementary school crowd and I think its going to be the surprise hit this year. I can see this being the go to grandma is taking us to the theater film for the holidays, if word of mouth is positive this is crossing 100 million while people are scratching their heads wondering where it came from. Speaking only for myself I am thrilled to be able to take the kids to something that is not another damn cartoon, even if it is a Pixar. I can’t imagine I am the only one who will take the option.

  4. Amblinman says:

    Supposedly the embargo on JL reviews doesn’t lift until Thursday morning.

    So, yeah, sounds like Whedon couldn’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

  5. PcChongor says:

    Glad to see all of A24’s films doing so well. “Lady Bird” seems like a shoo-in for a Best Picture nom. “Orient Express” was surprisingly fun. Nothing I’ll ever see again, but a nice throwback to good ol’ fashioned star-driven studio claptrap.

  6. Sideshow Bill says:

    Very excited to see Lady Bird and Three Billboards but afraid I’ll have to wait for video. That sucks.

    Watched Ingrid Goes West over the weekend. Kinda loved it. Aubrey Plaza was fantastic. It eschewed the easy, happy ending. It was just really well performed and put together.

    Hcat might be right on Wonder. Everybody I know is clamoring to see it.

  7. Night Owl says:

    Even if Justice League is god awful it’s still going to make huge money. If Suicide Squad made money so can this. This schedule feels like mutual canabalism. Thor has made and will make huge money…but not as much as it would have if Justice League wasn’t opening, and vice versa. What’s the advantage of no breathing room for either?

    Great to see some of the independents get some traction. A relief for the Academy since so many of the early favorites seem to have bombed hard; Detroit, mother!, Battle of the Sexes. Maybe viewers will have actually seen a few of the movies they are going to nominate. I mean, I loved Dunkirk too but lets make it a race.

  8. KrazyEyes says:

    My ten year old has expressed zero interest in seeing Thor and Justice League. All she’s been talking about over the past few weeks is Wonder and Wonderstruck. Both books she loved.

  9. poet67 says:

    There is plenty of breathing room for both Thor and Justice League. The number of wide releases this month is in the single digits. Jigsaw is still in the top five for crying out loud. There is zero competition out there.

  10. Doug R says:

    Grace Randolph makes the point that Thor should have been released first week of August like Guardians, would have made even more money.

  11. Hcat says:

    August!? Look, Untitled Marvel film claimed this weekend six years ago and they were going to keep it dangnabbit! Otherwise the whole picking weekends a decade in advance for who knows what looks kinda stupid.

    Besides being this close to Justice League hurts JL more than it does Thor, so why not put them as head to head as possible. An unlikely JL win can be played off as this being their big team up, a Thor win and a solo film beats their flagship, either way a win win. Besides, Disney had a big fourth (or first I am not sure how they count this time of year) quarter last year, they certainly don’t want to report a 200 million dollar hole to the shareholders in January.

  12. JS Partisan says:

    It wasn’t six years ago. It was like 3 years ago, at the whole press conference they had. It was widely reported… everywhere. Literally… everywhere.

    Grace may have a point, but this Thor opening probably has more to do with China. Those folks, are getting super duper particular with their own film release dates, so this probably worked better for them.

    And let’s be honest: who the fuck likes opening a movie in August? People seem to like March more than August, and I don’t blame them. Whatever the case, I doubt DCEU or MSCU open a movie in August anytime soon.

  13. Hcat says:

    I was just using a slight bit of hyperbole. And just for reference Hyperbole is not a hero from the andromeda galaxy with the power of flight who can create flows of lava from the elements in our atmosphere but a literary technique that uses exaggeration to make a point.

  14. Pete B. says:

    Better trademark “Hyperbole” stat, Hcat. That might be the next show on Netflix.

  15. Mike says:

    I was hoping that the Superbowl of the XFL was going to be called the Hyperbole, but sadly, no luck.

  16. Pete B says:

    Finally got to see Thor Ragnarok after a series of setbacks. Somewhere Jack Kirby is smiling.

  17. JS Partisan says:

    Hcat, I know. I was simply being very drole… very… very… very… very… drole.

  18. Hcat says:

    I find it a little concerning that JL comes in at just 2 hous. Which means the culmination of the D.C. Universe is less densely plotted than a Dalton Bond film

  19. palmtree says:

    I think the Dalton Bond films are underrated. But then again, maybe it’s because I like the action in them, not their plots.

    Also, both Dalton Bond films land on the longer side, clocking in at 131 and 133 minutes.

  20. JS Partisan says:

    1) I FUCKING LOVE THE DALTON BONDS! Love them. Yes. They are long, but those were the first Bond films I really enjoyed. It also weirds me out, when a Bond isn’t super long. Why Warners decreed JL be only 2 hours, is just such poppycock. Absolute poppycock.

    2) My god. The Justice League reviews are just… THIS ISN’T THIS HARD! There are movies you can watch for examples, and just rip them straight off to make a quality fucking film. WHY OH FUCKING WHY, is making a DCEU movie so impossible for people not named Patty or Christopher.

    Seriously. Warners should do what needs to be done, to let Nolan or Jenkins, fix this next wave of films. Snyder and Whedon are just too fucking gross, and Warners should make sure the future of these film aren’t an incoherent fucking mess. I am, and always will be, more of a Marvel person than a DC person. This does not change the fact, that there are DC characters I love, many of them in that JL movie, and that they still can’t fucking get it right… just… COME ON!

  21. hcat says:

    Prime has got all the prior Bonds this month, was watching Living Daylights when I wrote the post. I also think Dalton doesn’t get his due. He filled the role nicely but was still saddled with John Glenn who can’t direct anything outside of an action scene. The largest hurdle was Bond was feeling antiquated before Dalton came on and after Joel Silver went and supercharged the genre even the shot of energy Dalton brought was not enough to keep up. After watching the roller coaster of pain and sweat that was Lethal Weapon a few months earlier seeing Bond sledding through a checkpoint couldn’t help but look stodgy.

  22. Stella's Boy says:

    “the essence of generic competence.” “another film that looks like Axe body spray smells.”

    Hey that’s a step up from BvsS right?! You can put those on a poster. Some might find those statements to be positives.

  23. amblinman says:

    JS, you’re soooo wrong on Dalton Bonds. Dreck. But I’m not a Bond fan so whatever. Couldn’t care less about that franchise. Grew up with Roger Moore and even as a kid I knew it was junk.

    Hey, so anyone know how much Warners paid RT not to publish JL critic scores? Fuck RT once and for all. Crap site offering nothing of value.

    Still wanna see JL even though I know it’s gonna be meh or bad. I like Ezra Miller and I like what I’ve seen of The Flash.

  24. Ray Pride says:

    Miller is good when he’s not relegated to elongated eye-popping reaction shots.

  25. Pete B says:

    Evidently Flixster didn’t get the memo and released earlier today a RT score of 48%. Of course that will change with more reviews, but ouch!

    Still that’s better than BvS and Suicide Squad’s final scores.

  26. Poet says:

    I dug the Dalton Bonds. They took chances that they don’t get enough credit for. The first tried out Bond in the middle of a John le Carre plot. The second out him into an episode of Miami Vice.

  27. PcChongor says:

    I always thought that the looming specter of a sub-50% “Justice League” score was why Warners offloaded RT to Comcast last year. Now they have a thin veil of plausible deniability for why the score is being delayed. Smart move on their part, but it still seems easier to just not make a shit movie in the first place.

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The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Justice League 38.8 4051 New 38.8
Wonder 9.6 3096 New 9.6
Thor: Ragnarok 5.8 4080 -68% 231.4
Murder on the Orient Express 4.1 3354 -62% 42
Daddy's Home 2 3.9 3575 -64% 39.7
The Star 2.8 2837 New 2.8
A Bad Moms Christmas 2.3 2948 -44% 46.3
Lady Bird 0.7 238 83% 2.9
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 0.3 53 215% 0.75
Jigsaw 0.3 1201 -72% 35.7
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