Gurus o’ Gold: Pick The Winners Way Too Early

Rank Last Chart best Picture AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Dunkirk
1 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 6 11 100
2 2 The Shape of Water
2 3 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 2 3 11 93
3 3 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7 1 4 4 3 1 5 1 3 3 2 11 87
4 4 Darkest Hour
6 9 6 8 6 2 4 6 4 6 7 11 57
5 t5 Call Me By Your Name
3 4 8 7 5 8 5 7 4 9 10 50
6 7 Get Out
8 7 9 10 4 9 7 4 5 8 4 11 46
7 10 The Florida Project
9 5 7 9 8 3 8 6 9 1 10 45
8 9 Lady Bird
4 8 3 7 7 6 8 7 5 9 44
9 t5 The Post
6 5 1 5 9 10 5 7 36
t10 Mudbound
5 11 10 7 9 10 6 14
t10 8 The BIg Sick
10 10 9 6 9 8 6 14
Phantom Thread
6 10 2 6
One Vote Wonders
Downsizing
5 1 6
Victoria & Abdul
8 1 3
Blade Runner 2049
10 1 1
I, Tonya
10 1 1
Last Flag Flying
10 1 1
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Frances McDormand
2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 8 13
2 Sally Hawkins
1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 8 11
Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
1 2 2 3
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Gary Oldman
Darkest Hour
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 18
2 Denzel Washington
Roman J israel, Esq
2 2 2 3 3
Jake Gyllenhaal
Stronger
2 2 2 2
Timothee Chalamet
Call Me By Your Name
2 2 2 2
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Supporting Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Willem Dafoe
The Florida Project
1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 8 15
2 Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Mo
2 1 2 2 1 2 2 7 9
Michael Stuhlbard
Call Me By Your Name
2 2 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Richard Jenkins
The Shape of Water
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 9 15
2 Allison Janney
I, Tonya
2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 8 10
One Vote Wonders
Holly Hunter
The BIg Sick
1 1 2
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Animated Feature AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Coco
1 1 1 1 1 5 10
2 Loving Vincent
1 2 1 1 2 2 6 9
The Breadwinner
2 2 2 1 4 5
One Vote Wonders
Mary & The Witch's Flower
2 1 1
Cars 3
2 1 1
Ferdinand
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Frontrunning Documentary AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Jane
1 1 1 1 2 1 6 11
2 Faces Places
2 2 1 1 4 6
City of Ghosts
2 2 2 2 4 4
One Vote Wonders
Strong Island
1 1 2
Step
2 1 1

7 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Pick The Winners Way Too Early”

  1. filmfanatic says:

    Is there some kind of bias against Lady Bird? It’s critical acclaim as measured by Metacritic and RT exceeds nearly every other film this entire year. Why isn’t it in the top five?

  2. hepwa says:

    WTF, Poland, no CMBYN in your top 10?? Would love to hear your rationalization for this while you have a lovely, but very light, film like “The Big Sick” in your top 10.

  3. palmtree says:

    It’s #5.

  4. Bob Burns says:

    does Karger know something or is his lonely BP pick a hail Mary? We’ll see.

  5. lockedcut says:

    Bias against lady bird? Surely not! Nearly all male prognosticators would never take a female film less seriously!

    Bias against our current second golden age of blockbusters? Definitely! Above all we have to maintain and aggressively defend the Weinstein standards of art house apartheid awards season!

    Look how far we’ve come! We cannot go backwards to the terrible days of the first golden age of blockbusters when Star Wars, jaws, exorcist, godfather, raiders of the lost ark etc were participating in awards season!

    Awards season is about fetishizing obscurity and enforcing conformity to the same bland standards year in and year out, we have to maintain the glorious standards Harvey Weinstein created for us!

    Can you imagine how embarrassed a prognosticator would be to predict a blockbuster on their top ten? Embassarment is the worst, better make sure I’m conforming to the safe place everyone else is in, wouldn’t want to have unique opinions, that’s the worst!

  6. Ray Pride says:

    Lady Bird is terrific and should those box-office results hold…

  7. hcat says:

    Lockedout, has the academy overlooked a Godfather or a Jaws in recent years? If the studios made a blockbuster worthy of consideration (and there seems to be one in the top spot) it would get in, but its not like It should be in the running simply because it made a lot of money.

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