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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend EstimITes by American klady!

Weekend Estimates 2017-09-17 at 11.54.09 AM
What more can I write about this weekend?

If you want to know where to place the It hold, which is excellent, it is hammocked by Beauty & The Beast (better) and Guardians 2 (not quite as excellent). Not close to the amazing Wonder Woman drop (43%). Amongst $100m openers, it’s right around Avengers and Dark Knight, albeit from a smaller opening number.

In other words, pretty much as surprising and excellent as the opening.

Doing less than one-quarter of the leader, American Assassin opened okay.

And the fight over mother! seems clear. Some want to defend the film’s aesthetic honor and blame anything else they can for the weak box office. Some people want to throw the film in the bin. I am waiting to see the film again before reviewing (this week, I hope). But I think both sides have a point and both sides are ridiculous. I find the film of much more value than The Trash Bin Club. But the conspiracy theories against the greatest artist of our time folks… love Darren… he’s not Kubrick… not close. Ironically, the movie is about, in part, some of the people defending Darren’s vision… and not in a pretty way.

Happy to see Frederick Wiseman in the $10k per-screen club this weekend. Also there, Brad’s Status.

Next weekend should be more interesting.

44 Responses to “Weekend EstimITes by American klady!”

  1. Thorough Henry says:

    How does the “It” hold compare to other horror movies with big opening weekends? The fact that an R-rated horror movie opened to over $100 million and had a drop in the range of a family friendly blockbuster is astounding.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    “Some want to defend the film’s aesthetic honor and blame anything else they can for the weak box office”

    If “no one in a sane state of mind should have ever released this wide” counts as an excuse, sure. Have you sat in a theater in public and made it through the last 30 minutes with a general audience? The word of mouth is like a radioactive dumpster fire. People howling at the screen. Never, ever seen such behaviour in a multiplex.

  3. Ray Pride says:

    And when they stay for the main course…

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    Internationally, DM3 now is certain to pass ZOOTOPIA worldwide, to crack the all time animated top 5. It’ll also surpass BATB for #2 overseas this year. It could catch FINDING DORY worldwide, but it’ll be close.

    WAR FOR PLANET of the APES is still kicking with a big China rollout and Japan still to come. $500 million worldwide is still very possible, which would be better than RISE though still well short of DAWN.

  5. jspartisan says:

    Ethan, every time you point out DM3’s dominance. It just reminds me, that Universal has TWO UNDERPERFORMING US properties. Sure. They made a billion, but this leads to the problems with box office reporting. No one reports box office worth a shit, so all they see are two films, that can’t even crack 300m in the US.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    From a financial perspective, Universal is sitting pretty. 4 of their last 6 wide movies were profitability smashes, they started the year red hot, and ATOMIC BLONDE and MUMMY didn’t lose much money if any. Their dominance is def overlooked on a wider scale.

  7. jspartisan says:

    Exactly, Ethan. It’s nuts, that they aren’t treated like the #2 studio. They’ve always been treated weirdly, but they really are kicking it on an international level like no one else can. Why that’s not reported, is just… weird.

  8. John E says:

    I loved mother!

    I understand why many would hate it, but I got what he was going for early on and watched the last 30 minutes with a grin on my face. “He’s going for it!”

  9. Bulldog68 says:

    Wonder Woman went up by 1% as actual numbers were released and despite losing 300 screens and being available on DVD. The thing just won’t die. Absolutely phenomenal. One other useless stat it has a shot at breaking now, the only movie to open above $100m that goes on to make four times it’s opening weekend number. It hits that if it gets to $413,005,884. Yeah, I did the math.

  10. hcat says:

    Speaking of records, for all the titles It now holds, no one has mentioned that it is the most inexpensive film to open over a hundred. It beats Twilight New Moon by a decent 15 million distance. Given that the majority of 100 million openers all cost over a hundred million to make I can see this one standing for awhile.

    And has anyone else noticed that Sony Classics seems to have a more bare bones schedule this year? I can usually count on them putting out between 16 to 20 interesting films a year and this year it looks like they are putting out less than a dozen. I know the competition for titles has gotten intense but I hope this isn’t a sign of them slowing down. They practically created the model for modern indie and import distribution and are the only distributor where I can grab nearly any title with their stamp on it and have an enjoyable (or gut wrenching) time.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah I was thinking about the 4x record Bulldog. It’ll actually be the only 4x opener above $80 million if it makes it. The highest 4x live-action summer opener, btw, is INCEPTION at just $62 million.

  12. The Pope says:

    I found mother! a case of too much and not enough.

    And when I felt it was not enough I could not help but wonder what Charlie Kaufman might have done had he been hit with a similar premise. I think he would have gone further and deeper with it and made it more interesting as opposed to hysterical.




    The ending was completely overcooked and under-nourished. Circularity worthy of a student’s short project. How about instead of the apocalypse, Harris and Pfeiffer return and claim the baby as their own. Bardem gives it away so he can write about loss. And Lawrence … leaves him in the dust.

  13. leahnz says:

    because then it might be an actual effective critique/allegory/metaphor beyond DA’s frantic, overwrought jizz-squirt into his self-inflicted anal fissure where his god complex festers

  14. Pete B says:

    Bulldog, if you want more crazy numbers for Wonder Woman:
    Regal Cinemas was offering an Ultimate Ticket where you could see WW once a day for it’s entire run. So had you paid the $100 for that gold etched card and steadfastly attended, as of today (the 111 day in theaters) you’d have spent 90 cents a show. How low it can go?

  15. Alex says:

    > So had you paid the $100 for that gold etched card and steadfastly attended, as of today (the 111 day in theaters) you’d have spent 90 cents a show.

    Probably after the 5th time, somebody has to pay me to watch it again.

  16. jspartisan says:

    So… you are all just going to ignore, that Spidey made more? That Spidey, may break 900m? That Spidey has already beaten every DCCU movie in box office? Yeah. Marvel Studios, helps drag Sony out of the shit, and cements Tom Holland’s Spidey, as a solid fucking earner.

    Marvel Studios, seems to have figured out international in ways, that Warners isn’t even close to touching. This is why, Justice League beating HOMECOMING, may be a stretch. Especially, if it’s another, “It’s okay,” experience, and god help them if Thor is some next level shit.

    But yeah, Spidey is a fucking success. Let’s not downplay the kid, because the kid plays.

    ETA:No one has brought up, that Star Wars is going to push fucking Wondie 2, from it’s date?

  17. Bulldog68 says:

    “So… you are all just going to ignore, that Spidey made more? ”

    You just can’t let it alone can you? Talking about WW doesn’t negate Spidey’s success.

    The reason WW is the conversation is because it beat expectations. Spidey IMO met them. And some would argue, didn’t really advance the ball when now he’s part of the most popular movie universe and still is only performing as good as the most hated Spidey ever, namely Spidey 3 from 2007, and this is with the addition of MCU’s box office viagra, Ironman.

    But we’ve had this conversation before.

    It’s funny that you defend Homecoming’s almost $900m as a great achievement but you have said in the past that both Jurassic World and Rogue One at $1.6b and $1.05b respectively, have left money on the table. When you consider that both movies introduced almost all brand new characters with Dinosaurs and BD Wong as leftovers from the Jurassic World, and basically a cameo from Darth, whereas the very title of the new Spidey is supposed to infuse a sense of this is the Spidey we have all been waiting for, he’s finally where he belongs, and with all his MCU pals, and still the box office didn’t really show it.

    Homecoming performed well, don’t get me wrong. Nobody is hanging their head in shame at these numbers, but it’s box office isn’t really newsworthy.

    “ETA:No one has brought up, that Star Wars is going to push fucking Wondie 2, from it’s date?”

    It’s fucking STAR WARS.

  18. Triple Option says:

    The Wonder Woman 2 date is actually an interesting question. If you’re running WB, how much of a cushion would you give to Star Wars? At what point would you announce the move? Do they seriously have the same release date? Like, Christmas 2019? Has Star Wars ever had to push a date? Which film would be more likely to need more time?

  19. Sideshow Bill says:

    The love and hate for mother! has me so fucking excited to see it on Sunday. I’m skipping Dolphins/Jets for that shit.

  20. Night Owl says:

    Wonder Woman will move and she’ll make a fortune. I say jump to March 2020. Last March had an over one billion grosser and a $600 million grosser and a $500 almost $600 million grosser. Lots of room, lots of money to be made.

    I don’t really care when they date Star Wars, just try for an original and interesting story this time J.J. They are starting from scratch so there is no excuse, although Johnson has taken the stories in different directions and has his own character priorities (for instance Maz Kanata apparently has less of a role than in FA…LOL, she barely had a role in FA!). I’m sensing potential whiplash. Although it will be adequate, J.J.’s movies are always entirely…adequate.

  21. hcat says:

    “Let’s not downplay the kid, because the kid plays”

    Well apparently he is no Wolf Warrior. Anybody seen this and can possibly relate what the fuss is about?

    And Leah, it seems you have had the new Cruise for a couple weeks now, have you checked it out yet?

  22. palmtree says:

    Meanwhile Wolf Warrior 2 is almost at $900 million worldwide on a $30 million budget. So…

  23. Ray Pride says:

    Chinese nationalism.

  24. Pete B says:

    Really thought JS would have been more excited that Captain Marvel got released on BluRay yesterday.

    {Seriously, those are pretty good flying effects for the time.}

  25. Triple Option says:

    Sideshow Bill wrote: The love and hate for mother!.. I’m skipping Dolphins/Jets”

    I’d be excited for a colonoscopy if it meant not having to watch the ‘fins/jets game.

  26. Sideshow Bill says:

    ^^^ Jay Cutler is our Katniss.

  27. leahnz says:

    hcat funny you should ask
    i saw ‘american made’ and ‘mother!’ on the same day, i had to leave my car at the mechanic and on the spur of the moment caught a matinee of ‘AM’ with my son (and two other people in the cinema) to kill some time

    —————- SPOILERS ——————-

    weirdly i actually remember seeing on the news about the real-life Barry Seal’s assassination by escobar’s gang during the whole iran-contra fuckarow so i was curious how liman would handle it; he and cruise seem to have a nice little groove working together and cruise is always more appealing when he’s asked to step outside his stereotypical tom cruise persona (though the whole ‘family man with devoted 21-years-younger wife’ thing shoehorned in is silly, esp considering the real Seal was married 3 times and there was a lawsuit from the first set of kids re the rights to Seal’s story and the egregious lack of accuracy in the screenplay).
    anyway i thought the movie got better as it went along and it made me wish there were more of Liman’s journeyman ilk directing this mid-level stuff today, decent story-teller with a good eye, solid action serves the narrative, not too heavy-handed (maybe he learned that lesson with ‘fair game’? yikes), a touch of humour and irony, and cruise is in good form (he bulked up a bit for the role but i’m disappointed he didn’t take the opportunity to go the whole hog and alter his appearance to better resemble the real Barry Seal, he still looks far too much like tom cruise, that and the whole daughter-wife thing makes me wonder if it’s a movie-star ego thing at this point or were the bean-counters nervous to have their headliner cruise disappear too much into the role, who knows)

  28. Sideshow Bill says:

    ISLE OF DOGS trailer. Holy shit. Just…holy shit. Take my money now, Wes.

  29. hcat says:

    “^^^ Jay Cutler is our Katniss.”

    Hmmm, as I remember Katniss could hit what she was aiming at.

    Sorry, I’m in Illinois.


    Thanks for the reply, the age difference between the leads struck me as odd so I went to the wiki page to see if this was accurate and spoiled the whole damn film for myself. And not only does it not seem accurate but Cruise seems to be playing a person who is a decade, decade and a half younger than himself. But the striking thing seems to be the difference between how real life events played out and the wild ride the marketing is promising. Its like they are taking a Lumet story and presenting it as a Michael Ritchie film.

  30. Sideshow Bill says:

    LOL. I’m in Illinois too hcat. Just outside of Chicago. I’ve been taking a beating from Bears fans for weeks.

  31. jspartisan says:

    Pete B, you probably love Roxy Blue, but completely pay so little attention to pop culture. You seemingly have no clue, that there’s only one Captain Marvel now, and that’s Carol Danver. The other guy? He’s Shazam now, but please keep on being clever. We haven’t had your level of clever in here, since the heady days of Jeff McMahon! OH HEADY! /s

    Frog, yeah, the box office did show it, because the rest of the world made Spidey more profitable than Wondie. Sorry, but you had people writing stories about box office, that were treating Homecoming like a bomb. It succeed in ways, no DCCU movie has, and that should be mentioned.

    Now, I never stated that shit about Jurassic World, but only stated how much I disliked that goofy fuck of a movie. That screams Geoff to me. We are two different people.

    I will totally state Rogue One left a lot on the table. Not only did the shitty decisions in that film, lead to a shit ton of merchandising headaches. They also, paid Felicity Jones a lot of money, and just threw Jyn Erso away, in one film. Where, if you know anything about their doll effort, Jyn is a part of Forces of Destiny, because there were obviously more plans to use the character, but LFL is ran by idiots. Idiots, who literally said to one another, “Well, they aren’t in a New Hope.” NEITHER IS FUCKING ACKBAR OR MON FUCKING MOTHMA, YOU NINNIES!

    Now, if I did state that shit about Jurassic World, that was absolutely ridiculous, but I was dealing with a baby. They melt your brains. It is terrible movie, but it did pretty fucking solid box office, and gave Colin Trevorrow dreams of a better life. Poor Colin.

  32. leahnz says:

    oh no hcat you wiki-ed
    yeah i think the movie and what happened in real life are distant cousins 8 times removed and certainly the story could have been handled in a completely different, more faithful manner, but on its own terms it’s a fairly tight and tidy slice of ’80 drug smuggler/CIA treachery pop culture.
    this isn’t much of a spoiler but ———————————————————————————————- there was a moment in the cinema when i said out loud (by accident, the theatre was virtually empty and i’m usually a vault) when a certain character appears on screen, “that’s Oliver fucking North” and my son looked at me like ‘who?’ and i realised he doesn’t even know who oliver north IS haha

    it’s true babies do melt your brains and you don’t get to sleep properly for 10 yrs afterward

  33. Bulldog68 says:

    “Frog, yeah, the box office did show it, because the rest of the world made Spidey more profitable than Wondie.”

    First off, respect the handle. You don’t like it when people call you IO, so, ya houses.

    Anyhooo…Let’s break that statement down. On average about 1/2 the domestic take goes back to the studios. WW=$205m, and Spidey $165m. On the international front where studios receive about 1/3 of the booty, WW nets $135m, and Spidey $177m. That brings WW total to $340m and Spidey $342m. Very fucking close, I guess a wash, but wait it’s not done, WW budget comes in at a reported $149m and Spidey, $26m more at $175m.

    So with the huge caveat that no one outside of the studio guys knows how much they spent on marketing and even this formula is just a best guess that most “experts” go by, it looks like loosely, WW wins by about $24m.

    “Sorry, but you had people writing stories about box office, that were treating Homecoming like a bomb.”

    They were fucking assholes.

    “Now, if I did state that shit about Jurassic World, that was absolutely ridiculous, but I was dealing with a baby. They melt your brains.”

    Yes they do melt your brains, and I’m sure you the most anxious father in the world, looking forward to making movie trips with the little one. Good on ya.

  34. Pete B says:

    I guess someone neglected to tell the company releasing the Special Edition BluRay this past Tuesday that they needed to change the name to “Shazam” then.

    But you just keep on being the sweetie-pie that we all know and love.

  35. hcat says:

    I will have to look up who plays Oliver North now that Treat Williams is too old to do the part.

  36. Js partisan says:

    Bulldog, her first movie is was a star wars like mine, but I swear to God
    … I sometimes think, it’s Bullfrog. Why? I don’t know. Also, I’m not anxious at all.

    Pete, they may have gotten an out, but between Marvel and SC, Marvel has the rights to that name, and DC refers to him as Shazam.

  37. Bulldog68 says:

    I guess I meant excited more than anxious. I couldn’t wait to take mine to their first movies.

  38. leahnz says:

    hey the US presidential election voting was directly tampered with, the election a sham and the ‘president’ illegitimate – it’s starting to come out (despite DHS efforts to suppress it and the US infotainment news corps dereliction of duty to accurately inform the public); maybe the citizenry should do something about it before you’re FUBAR and the assault on your democracy is complete. wake tf up

  39. JS Partisan says:

    Leah, it is fucked up beyond comprehension, but this country was never designed with the thought… that an general election could be stolen or manipulated. If they ever fucking thought about it. They would have put a re-election clause in the constitution, but that’s the majesty of the fucking founding fathers: they never got how better a parliamentary system was/is, because they were too engaged with the smoke they blew up one another’s ass.

    So yeah, sorry, that 77000 people fucked it all up.

  40. leahnz says:

    funnily enough today is our general election, our parliament is formed via proportional representation, paper ballots – hand counted and tallied, it takes a bit longer and we usually don’t know till the next day (sometimes longer) what the government will look like based on seats in parliament but at least we have the confidence that it’s legit even if not everyone likes the results (i saw somewhere that enzed is one of only a few true democracies in the world, which was quite a shock i must admit)

  41. JS Partisan says:

    BD, yeah, I just wish she could sit down through things. She has to watch something, like three times, before she is chill enough, to just watch and enjoy. She will be three soon, and it will be time to take her out into the world!

    Leah, yeah, that’s good stuff. Our elections, should just be all mail in ballots, and the shit is announced on election night. That’s it. Drop them off at a post office, and we just hope for the best. The way we do it now, as a country, is fucking stupid.

  42. Bulldog68 says:

    My eldest was 2 when she got her first big screen experience, Finding Nemo. I swear, the little rascal ate 90% of my jumbo popcorn and couldn’t take her eyes off the giant screen. She sat through it pretty good. Now I get irritated when we watch movies at home because she wants to be on the phone at the same time. From the time they hit fifteen you wonder if it’s the same kid. Lol.

  43. Doug R says:

    The one thing the US system has going for it is the House is elected every two years. That and having the three branches trying to balance each other.
    That being said, having a system where slave states have more power was always a shabby compromise.

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