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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates

Screen Shot 2017-09-03 at 12.46.46 PM

34 Responses to “Weekend Estimates”

  1. Sideshow Bill says:

    Looks like Annabelle is going do $100 million easy. I know not everyone liked it but I did, and I think it benefits from a dearth of horror this Summer. This bodes very well for IT next weekend.

    Boy, WIND RIVER was wonderful. Taylor Sheridan is pretty much money in the bank right now. Surprising and moving, with great performances top to bottom.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    It’s so slow that next weekend, IT will become the widest R-rated horror release in history by possibly 500 theatres (SNAKES ON A PLANE and ANNABELLE CREATION are the current recordholders), and potentially the widest R-rated opening period.

    NUT JOB 2: NUTTY BY NATURE is now Open Road’s #2 grosser since SPOTLIGHT. That seems really depressing, until you realize #1 is Garry Marshall’s MOTHER’S DAY.

  3. Spacesheik says:

    WIND RIVER was absolutely mesmerising. This film deserves an audience.

  4. PTA Fluffer says:

    Look at those % changes. Hollywood has discovered the secret to bringing back theatrical legs—just don’t release anything new for the weekend!

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    And to think the Wonder Woman DVD was released and it still went up this weekend. The thing just refuses to die, and has now outgrossed Civil War and soon Iron Man 3. First was will it open over $100m, then will it get passed $300m, then will it top BvS, then will it top GotG2, and then $400m, and then these last two milestones. What a remarkable run.

  6. Js partisan says:

    Is Wondie making over a billion? If not, then it didn’t out gross last year’s biggest film, or Iron Man 3. That’s great, domestically. Internationally? Okay.

  7. Bulldog68 says:

    JS you know I’m speaking about its expectations domestically. C’mon already.

  8. Night Owl says:

    All this just reminds me that international box office is a different beast I will never quite reconcile with. Internationally Civil War and Iron Man 3 both lose to Fast and Furious 8. They also lose worldwide to Furious 7 (which also beats Star Wars Force Awakens when you exclude domestic). Oh and internationally they both got beaten by Minions and Transformers 4. Minions…and Transformers 4. To each their own I guess?

    Wonder Woman has done an unbelievable number worldwide for a first movie. The question will be growth for the next one. Guardians of the Galaxy grew about $90 million worldwide. Great but we all know less than Marvel hoped for. It’s an interesting question, what will be the next superhero to break a billion without it being a team up? Will there be one? I don’t count Captain America; Civil War is an Avengers movie…it had more Avengers in it than the Avengers movies. Iron Man did it once, Batman twice with Nolan at the helm. A terrifically reviewed Spider-Man (with Iron Man) could not do it. Who can do it on their own?

  9. js Partisan says:

    Bulldog, yeah, but that’s just factually inaccurate :D! You don’t come to the hot blog, and just bring up domestic! COME ON!

    Now, Spider-Man wasn’t sold for shit, because no one got it’s a SPIDER-MAN movie. Tony, was just a character in it. This is what happens, when Sony markets shit… things don’t always make as much as they’d hoped. Also, FF7 may have been a beast, but it got it’s fucking ass handed to it by Star Wars. FF8, just as big as an international beast, and it will get it’s ass handed to it by Star Wars again. What will be interesting, is if Vin can get China to give a shit, about another shit FF movie? They turned on Transformers. They will turn their backs on Vin, because the FF movies are just going down.

    Outside of that, Thor could make a billion, but that’s not really a solo offering… so… here’s to Captain Carol Danvers giving Diana Prince a run for her money!

  10. Pete B says:

    I know you’re a huge Marvel homer JS, but no way does Captain Marvel top Wonder Woman.

  11. js Partisan says:

    Pete, maybe not domestically, but it’s going to be special. It’s going to be special, like Black Panther. Those two movies, are going to be something else, but Captain Marvel is a very beloved character. I’ve explained this before in here, and let me mansplain again: Carol Danvers is the most important comic book character of this decade. Her movie, is going to be a big fucking deal. Wonder Woman big fucking deal? Who knows? But it will be a thing.

  12. palmtree says:

    Wonder Woman 2 will do really well internationally. International will buy into a franchise once it’s been established in America. That’s why even crappy sequels kill it internationally even though domestically we’re over it.

    And THAT’s why Wonder Woman’s domestic gross is so important.

  13. Pete B says:

    JS, care to mansplain how she is “the most important comic book character of this decade”?

    I may be an old fart, but the first thing I think of with Captain Marvel is a big dude with a white cape in a red suit with a lightning bolt saying “Shazam!”

    (And I owned most of Starlin’s Mar-Vell series from the 70s.)

  14. palmtree says:

    Next interesting box office legs story will be how high Dunkirk can go. It definitely gets to 200 but beyond that who knows?

  15. Bulldog68 says:

    To a box office junkie like me there is an interesting record that IT can possibly break if it lives up to the buzz. Thus far no movie has grossed $100m within the month of September. Sully came oh so close with $99.5m, and got to $100m on Oct 1st. IT will have 24 days, or one day more than Sully to get it done.

  16. Glamourboy says:

    So Cars 3 at 150 would have to be considered a disappointment, right?

  17. hcat says:

    Bulldog, given the buzz and the marketing I would be surprised if it took more than 17 days for IT to hit the century mark. August seemed artificially calm due to the lack of product and I would imagine people are itching to get back into the theater. This feels like it is just going to explode. Not sure what the September records are but IT should give them a run. If Insidious 2 can open to 40 this should be able to clear that bar with ease. I not sure of the demographics of the typical horror film but I would assume it skews young and this should bring in a substantial older group on top of that as this book was Hunger Games huge when I was in high school.

  18. palmtree says:

    I thought Cars was always about merchandise. But even that low-grossing number has to negatively impact merchandise sales, right?

  19. Greg says:

    Captain marvel isn’t doing a billion or anywhere close. Give me a break. It won’t even do dr strange numbers. No one is asking for that film.

  20. hcat says:

    “I thought (Insert any Disney Title) was always about merchandise”

  21. Hcat says:

    So…..is Ron Howard just going to direct all of them?

  22. Ray Pride says:

    John McTiernan!

  23. js Partisan says:

    Cars 3, failed because… THEY WERE AFRAID TO MARKET IT TO GIRLS! It’s typical, weird, Disney bullshit. Seriously. Pixar, fucked that one, right in the tail pipe… WOO.

    Pete, Captain Marvel, is Carol Danver, and her stories are some of the most popular Marvel has produced this decade. Her, taking the mantle of Captain Marvel was a huge story, that also happened to lead to the creation, of a much beloved Ms. Marvel.

    Carol Danvers, is right up there, with all the heavy hitters in that universe. She went from wearing a bodysuit, and being on the fringes of the Marvel Universe… to basically replacing Captain America. Her movie, is going to establishing the new defacto leader of the MSCU. This may be a reason, why Scarlett Johansson sits out events now, because they are making Brien Larson the face of their franchise.

  24. Stella's Boy says:

    Mojo says Gravity’s $55 million is the best fall opening of all-time. So It is probably going to take those bragging rights. I can’t believe they’re saying $60 million and even $70 million is possible. Never would have guessed that was possible.

  25. EtGuild2 says:

    ““I thought (Insert any Disney Title) was always about merchandise””

    I still have my “People Like Us” Chris Pine/Michelle Monaghan figurines!!!! (Tongue in cheek of course…RIP Touchstone and mid-level hit goals).

    On IT, again there hasn’t been a vacuum like this in over a decade, which is why it’s the first 4,000 theater horror release, and possibly the widest R-release of all-time.

  26. Stella's Boy says:

    Could it be any horror movie, or is it this one specifically?

  27. PTA Fluffer says:

    If the studios think that second- and third-tier comic characters will ever be able to deliver Batman/Spiderman size grosses, they are in for a long spiral down.

  28. EtGuild2 says:

    Update: IT breaks LOGAN’s record for widest R-rated release, opening in 4,103 theatres, which is nearly as many as WONDER WOMAN.

  29. Stella's Boy says:

    $13.5 million last night (I was at an almost sold-out screening) and maybe $90 million for the weekend! Damn.

  30. Bulldog68 says:

    “If the studios think that second- and third-tier comic characters will ever be able to deliver Batman/Spiderman size grosses, they are in for a long spiral down.”

    Ironman. Guardians of the Galaxy. Suicide Squad. Deadpool. They’ve all outgrossed the Amazing Spideman movies. Homecoming may just catch Suicide Squad domestically. What’s your point?

  31. EtGuild2 says:

    HOMECOMING is past SS, and has its sights set on BvS and possibly GOTG but it’s a great point.

  32. js Partisan says:

    SB, that movie was always getting a 100m, because they sold it worth a shit. This is how HOLLYWOOD SHOULD FUCKING WORK! You create a good ad campaign, build on it, and then deliver a decent movie on top it. That’s box office. These fucking idiots, just want to be Marvel Studios, and seemingly cannot grasp… THAT MARVEL STUDIOS IS THE ONLY ONE, WHO CAN DO THIS SHIT! The sooner studios realize that IT should be a template for the future. The sooner they figure this out. The sooner the press, will stop shitting all over them.

  33. Triple Option says:

    I think the key word was “expects.” Obviously they had some faith in the concept or Iron Man wouldn’t have gotten made but if they expected it would open to $85M then barely employable Robert Downey, Jr would not have been hired. Why would anyone expect Guardians to reach the levels of established, 50-year franchises? Would the oft-skittish, sell off home vid rights at the 11th hour, cya experts at Fox have been cool with letting Deadpool out the door with an R-rating if it expected it to eclipse its X-Men tent pole?

    Though I can’t speak for PTA, I think Suicide Squad is the title and tipping point where things can go sideways in a hurry. Just pull any comic off the shelf, add a quart of cg, a an A-lister or two and voila! A new billion dollar grosser, simple as that! The barely break-evens and loses would start to mount up. It’d be bad for business and bad for the consuming viewing public.

  34. Stella's Boy says:

    That seems like revisionist history to me JS. Six months ago, even three months ago, no one on Earth was saying that It was an obvious $100 million opening weekend. There was surprise when early tracking was suggesting $40-$50 million.

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