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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Kladyman: The Golden Excel Chart

Friday Estimates 2017-09-23 at 9.19.56A

19 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Kladyman: The Golden Excel Chart”

  1. JS Partisan says:

    So Ninjago just fucking stiffed? Wow. I guess, that’s what happens when you have kids, that already had a Ninjago cartoon they loved, and didn’t needed it changed for film. While you have teens and adults, that just couldn’t find a fuck to give. Are parents just not looking for a movie, to take their kids to this weekend?

    Kingsman, making that Kingsman money!

  2. Geoff says:

    Warner Bros clearly miscalculated with this installment of the Lego franchise. Once again, they screwed themselves with a poor choice of release date INSISTING they can open it well against the long-awaited second installment of an action franchise – this time, it was Kingsmen and last time, it was John Wick.

    And yeah, it was too soon to try to link it to an IP that ONLY Lego fans know about whereas they probably would have been better off holding it off until the next proper Lego sequel in ’19 or….just linked it to movie IP they have like Batman: Harry Potter, Hobbit, hell….trying out a Looney Tunes cross-over could have been pretty cool!

    IT extremely over-performing probably makes up for this but still a missed opportunity and an early setback for the Lego franchise which STILL has the potential to be huge, but now less so.

  3. Stella's Boy says:

    Kingsman 2 cost $105 million and will barely beat the first one’s opening weekend. Is $39 million really all that good? Doesn’t seem like it considering they upped the cast’s star power. Not saying it won’t be profitable. Not saying it won’t do well internationally. But the domestic opening weekend doesn’t seems OK not great.

    Did parents even know Ninjago was coming out? Prior to the release of The Lego Movie and The Lego Batman Movie, I couldn’t spend more than two minutes watching TV with my kids without seeing a TV spot. Not so with this one. Anecdotal but it sure seems like awareness was low.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    Wamp Wamp, the domestic box office comeback is stalling…hopefully BLADE RUNNER injects some juice back in. Certainly doesn’t seem like AMERICAN MADE or FLATLINERS will hit, though the former has done well enough overseas already to save it.

    IT is now guaranteed 100% to beat SIXTH SENSE’s horror record though. With inflation, I believe it’s the biggest since the 90s unless you count I AM LEGEND, which it has a shot at catching. It’ll pass GRAVITY as the biggest September/October release this week.

  5. Night Owl says:

    Stella’s Boy I’d say that’s not a good number for Kingsmen; not at all. It’s “OK” at best. If that opening number doesn’t hit $40 million Fox is going to fudge like hell to at least estimate it at that. With a sequel’s front-loading and only opening slightly over the first one? Very likely to drop in domestic box office. International should (should) make it a minor hit but no way Fox is going to be happy with this.

    Not sure how it could have been fixed….maybe if they’d made a good movie?….nah that’s crazy talk.

    Next weekend will stall further. Two films opening in the teens at best (Cruise doesn’t mean much domestically anymore so no surprise). Flatliners is low budget enough that they’ll be fine (especially with some international loot) but what Sony needs are triples and home runs, not a base hit.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    Matthew Vaughn is near the top of my “most disappointing” directors” list at this point.

  7. Stella Boy says:

    Matthew Vaughn and Daniel Craig. I remember seeing Layer Cake in theaters and being so excited by the promising director and star. Now not so much especially for Vaughn. Craig still has the goods in the right role.

  8. spassky says:

    Stella, what did you think of “Logan Lucky”?

  9. JS Partisan says:

    Kingsman, made 414 million dollars. 2, may do the same, so it’s not about here. It’s about over there. If they can come close, to make half a billion, or the same amount of money again. They will probably call that a win. Sure. These movies, are supposed to expand with the sequel, but it’s not 1992 anymore. You make a little bit more? Win. Sure. It all depends on what the studio gets back, but you know… they never make any money with movies, so it doesn’t matter :D!

    Also, Kingsman 2, really got fucked by IT. People who would have seen it this month, went and saw IT, and there’s their September movie going.

    And Geoff, after reading your comment. It dawned on me, that Ninjago should have been a netflix movie. It screams, “STREAMING SERVICE,” in the nicest way possible.

  10. Hcat says:

    There is no way that Ninjago and Kingsman audiences overlap in any significant way, opening this weekend didnt cost them anything. Its more likely that the Lego novelty has worn off. The first one took people by surprise, Batman rode on its coattails (and well it was Batman) but having two of these hyperactive sugar cereal movies coming out in the same year? If anything they should have released Ninjago before Batman.

  11. Stella's Boy says:

    Kingsman 2 might open with a few million more than part 1 but will likely make less (domestically). Can’t see it having good word of mouth and strong holds. So that’s not good.

    I am kicking myself for not seeing Logan Lucky in theaters when I had the chance spassky. I had a choice between it and Wind River and saw the latter. I loved it but I wish I had made time for Logan Lucky. I’m excited to see it. Looks like Craig is great. I miss Layer Cake/The Mother/Enduing Love Daniel Craig. He had quite a run.

  12. Hallick says:

    The Lego Movie was a creative and box office phenomenon, The Lego Batman Movie had the benefit of that Batman/Lego Movie synergy, but Ninjago doesn’t have those hooks, and the novelty of this film style is all used up by now, so this thing has to stand out on its own merits like any other non-Lego kids movie.

    I’m going to see it a couple of hours from now. The best I’m hoping for is “pleasantly surprised” rather than “at least I got a popcorn-and-coke lunch out of it”.

  13. Christian says:

    “Ex Libris” is in the AFI Silver theater #3, with 81 seats, playing just twice a day. But the 7:30 show last night looked to be a sellout, which was gratifying. There were upward of 10 walkouts, but not until well past hour number 2 (the film runs 3 hours and 17 minutes). I was a fan of the film – I’m a big fan of public libraries in general – but can understand how some unsuspecting souls might have had their patience tested by this one. I think some people just hit their limit with an arc-less documentary.

  14. David Poland says:

    “they upped the cast’s star power”

    Where did this concept come from? Body count?

    Good, well liked actors. No openers. Not one.

  15. JS Partisan says:

    Hey everyone! It’s Christian! HI CHRISTIAN!

  16. EtGuild2 says:

    “Good, well liked actors. No openers. Not one.”

    This is a goofy comment on multiple levels.

    1. In what universe is star power only defined as $15-$20 million solo openers?

    2. You’ve continuously established that you think there’s about 5 people left who are “openers” who meet your criteria, so the comment doesn’t clear the bar of basic coherence either. On Planet Poland, it would scarcely be possible to “up the star power” in a movie, period. The fact Berry can get more butts into theatres than any other African American woman is irrelevant, and Tatum is discounted because he isn’t consistent. He falls into your “manufacture excuses out of whole cloth for his successes and point to his failures category” which encapsulates most Hollywood leads on Planet Poland.

  17. Stella's Boy says:

    Yeah agreed Ethan. And I never said they are all proven openers, just that the sequel has more familiar faces in it than the first one. Which is objectively true.

  18. spassky says:

    I thought Craig was the absolute standout in “Logan Lucky”. I was very much not taken with “LL”, and am even almost ashamed to admit that I have lost respect for Soderbergh in his boring execution and condescension towards his characters. For a Daniel Craig fan though, closest thing we’ve seen to a must see performance from him in years.

  19. Christian Hamaker says:

    Hi, Partisan! (Thanks for noticing.)

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The Atlantic: You saw that the Academy Awards recently held up your 2001 acceptance speech as the Platonic ideal of an Oscar speech. Did you have a reaction?

Soderbergh: Shock and dismay. When that popped up and people started texting me about it, I said, “Oh, it’s too bad I’m not there to tell the story of how that took place.” Well. I was not sober at the time. And I had nothing prepared because I knew I wasn’t going to win [Best Director for Traffic]. I figured Ridley, Ang or Daldry would win. So I was hitting the bar pretty hard, having a great night, feeling super-relaxed because I don’t have to get up there. So the combination of a 0.4 blood alcohol level and lack of preparation resulted in me, in my state of drunkenness crossed with adrenaline surge. I was coherent enough to know that [if I tried to thank everyone], that way lies destruction. So I went the other way. There were some people who appreciated that, and there were some people who really wanted to hear their names said, and I had to apologize to them.
~ Steven Soderbergh


“I have made few films in a way. I never made action films. I never made science fiction films. I never made, really, very complicated settings, because I had modest ambitions. I knew they would never trust me to have the budget to do something different, so my mind is more focused on things I know. So they were always mental adventures I wanted to approach and share. Working for cinema with no – not only no money, but also no ambition for money. I was happy and proud [to receive the honorary Oscar] because of that, that [the Academy] could understand what kind of work I have done over 60 years. I stayed faithful to the ideal of sharing emotion, impressions, and mostly because I have so much empathy for other people that I approach people who are not really spoken about. I have 65 years of work in my bag, and when I put the bag down, what comes out? It’s really the desire of finding links and relationships with different kinds of people. I never made a film about the bourgeoisie, about rich people. about nobility. My choices have been to show people that are, in a way, more common and see that each of them has something special and interesting, rare and beautiful. It’s my natural way of looking at people. I didn’t fight my instincts. And maybe that has been appreciated in the famous circle of Hollywood.“

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