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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by The Box Office Man’s Bodyguard

Screen Shot 2017-08-19 at 10.42.02 AM

Eighteen months ago, Ryan Reynolds solo-starred a $132 million opening. The Hitman’s Bodyguard will be his #2 non-animated opening of the last five years.

Samuel L. Jackson has been in 20 movies in the last five years, with widely ranging box office, not only from co-star Marvel franchises, but from movies sold heavily on his stardom.

One could easily make an argument that a $22 million-ish opening for The Hitman’s Bodyguard is solid for these two actors at this time. It’s better than a big studio launch with Reynolds like Life. The xXx reboot launched to only $20 million with Jackson AND Vin Diesel. Why would anyone expect more without a supersuit from these two?

On the other hand, two funny guys with strong personalities, jaunting around Europe shooting people seems like a potentially giant R-rated hit movie. Why not a Kingsman-level opening? Why not a third of the Deadpool open?

These are the discussions that give studio execs ulcers. Same with Atomic Blonde. Charlize is glorious. Wonder Woman and Girls Trip suggest that women will show up for female leads. The high style of the film was made for advertising. 75% on Rotten Tomatoes wouldn’t scare anyone away. $18.3 million open.

For that matter, how hard do you have to try to open a Will Ferrell comedy to $8 million? His first wide opening to a number that low in more than 15 years!!! And that doesn’t even take Amy Poehler’s fans into account.

Logan Lucky is another barrel of monkeys. It will open pretty much the way that lower-profile Soderbergh movies open. Big number for Bleecker Street. Not a sensational number for Channing Tatum or James Bond.

Annabelle: Creation dropped almost the same as the first film of these two. The parent franchise, The Conjuring, opens stronger and drops faster.

Girls Trip passed $100m domestic on Thursday.

Decent expansion for Wind River, grabbing $1 million on Friday on a third or a quarter of other films in the Top 10.

Soft opening for well-liked Patti Cake$ and Marjorie Prime.

7 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Box Office Man’s Bodyguard”

  1. TrackerBacker says:

    I don’t understand what Fox Searchlight is doing these days. They paid over 4 million for Step and close to 11 million for Patti Cakes, yet even in NY and LA, there’s barely been any push for either. I know Patti Cakes didn’t end up getting tremendous critical support, but it seems like they should have done more to promote both movies, given how much money they have into them.

  2. Eric says:

    On a 30 million budget I am not sure that Lionsgate is sweating Hitman’s opening that much. 50 million or more yeah. And with no competition at all for the next three weeks it it has a decent chance of legging it to at least 60 million or more. Any silver lining right now in this trainwreck of a summer at the box office. It, Kingsman 2, and Blade Runner 2049 could not come soon enough to liven things up.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Lionsgate is quietly having a very good year. It looks like a lock to be their #3 ever, and without HUNGER GAMES or TWILIGHT carrying them. HITMAN’S BODYGUARD’s number is great for a third week of August-Labor Day opener.

    POWER RANGERS aside, they broke into the faith market with THE SHACK, reaped big money and awards this year with LALA, had another Pantelion success with HOW TO BE A LATIN LOVER, rolled with JOHN WICK 2 and had the breakout “indie” of the summer with THE BIG SICK.

    I’ll be interested to see if MY LITTLE PONY works for them, and if they can manage a Linklater release correctly.

  4. Hcat says:

    Plus Lionsgate has Wonder on deck, my daughter and it seems her entire school LOVES the book and after seeing the trailer the other day it looks like it can easily connect with non child having adults (sleepers). I would say this thing does eighty without breaking much of a sweat.

  5. Hcat says:

    And Tracker what the hell has searchlight been doing the last few years? They seemed to fall off a cliff with Earl and the dead girl and been unable to locate any decent films. They (and focus).used to be my most trusted names in quality, now I get Table 19 and Gifted

  6. Movieman says:

    What’s up with Weinstein sneaking off-brand ‘toon “Leap” on Saturday AND Sunday afternoons this weekend?
    For a moment there, I thought it was 1990.
    Can’t even remember the last time a movie was sneaked nationally.
    “Captain Phillips” maybe?

  7. Chucky says:

    TrackerBacker: “Step” just opened in Philadelphia but has already tanked in New York City. Had the misfortune to hit the NYC suburbs when the ugly stuff kicked off in Charlottesville.

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