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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by The Very Late (But Still Alive & Kicking) Klady

friday estimates

All 3 Despicable Me films have been launched in a different way. The first opened the weekend after the July 4 holiday. The second, on a Wednesday, the day before a Thursday July 4. And now, a Friday opening on what is July 4 weekend, but July 4 isn’t until Tuesday. (Minions opened, like the first Despicable, on the Friday after July 4 and is the biggest opener of the franchise by far.)

So… Despicable Me 3‘s Friday is behind the Minions opening day of $46 million and impossible to compare fairly to the rest… but could well lead to a $100m 3-day…. or come up short on its own… or perhaps families will wait to take advantage of the holiday… which not everyone is getting.

Despicable Me 2 had a $145 million 5-day, but the calendar was unique. In fact, no July 4 opening that has been over $60 million has ever had July 4 fall on a Tuesday. The last time July 4 fell on a Tuesday was 2006, when the top film was Superman Returns. Warner opened the film a week earlier, on June 27 and siphoned off $32 million before opening weekend. The 3-day had a slightly stronger Sunday than normal and the Monday was the fourth best day of the 5 days and Tuesday the 4th, the weakest of the 5. The 3-day did $52 million and they ended the 7-day launch with $108 million.

So… Despicable is a family movie, but has never played that way, with Saturdays not showing a big bump on any of the three prior films. In fact, no bump. Actually… a small drop in all three cases. That would suggest a low 80s 3-day and a 5-day in the 100-teens.

This should not be part of any trend pieces about franchise fatigue… but it may be anyway. Too many writers want a trend story instead of reality.

The Baby Driver opening is also good news. It’s not explosive. It’s not a sign of any trend. But it is a strong enough sample to get word-of-mouth going into the second weekend. It’s definitely not a flop. It’s by far Edgar Wright’s biggest opening. But hyper-enthusiasm in the media could also lead to overly generous box office analysis.

The House was dumped by Warner Bros and audiences treated it like #2. The only movie in Will Ferrell’s career as a leading man that got a wide release and might be as low a number as this was Night At The Roxbury in 1998.

And did you know that Amy Poehler doesn’t even have her own Box Office Mojo page? That’s f-ed up. Ansel Elgort has one. Amy Poehler should have one. Anyway… this opening sucks for her, too.

The Beguiled expanded to 674 screens and… nice but not thrilling numbers. Around $4200 per screen. Suggests the film may find its way into the teens at the box office. Focus is going a little slower with this than with Nocturnal Animals… hard to tell if that will work or not.

Biggest winner in exclusive release is The Little Hours, Aubrey Plaza’s filthy nun comedy. Feels more European than improvised, if that makes any sense. Funny.

26 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Very Late (But Still Alive & Kicking) Klady”

  1. Geoff says:

    Ok Ethan, is it acceptable to at least state that Disney is having a “disappointing” summer at this point?? 😉 Pirates 5 is going to barely make a profit, Cars 3 could end up being the lowest grossing Pixar movie besides The Good Dinosaur, and Guardians 2 while profitable probably gross about 10% or 15% below what they were expecting? Is that ok?

    And despite that, they SEEM to have the studio market share crown sewn up halfway through the year even though they have nothing else coming out for four months – they have about a $400 million gap over Universal which is probably going to close a lot of that gap with Despicable Me 3 but Universal doesn’t have much for the rest of the year to counter Star Wars and Thor besides….a bunch of more niche stuff and Pitch Perfect 3. (And yes, I can confidently call a Tom Cruise drama “niche” at this point)

    That leaves MAYBE Warner Bros or Fox which are both about $500 million behind Disney but have much more aggressive schedules through the fall – Warners has Dunkirk, It, Lego Ninjago, and Blade Runner: Money Never Sleeps all before November so they have an outside shot. But it looks like its Disney’s crown to lose.

    And of course Disney can afford to have a disappointing summer but not the shit-show year that Paramount is having….wow could Tranny 5 actually top out around half a billion worldwide?? That would be crazy.

    Good job on Sony for selling Baby Driver as well as they did – I had thought with this release date, they were dumping the film but alas no they screened the shit out of it to build buzz with the fanboys which sometimes works (Kingsman) and sometimes doesn’t (Scott Pilgrim).

    And Warners should be damn proud for keeping Wonder Woman as strong as it has held – having that many screens a month after release is pretty impressive – but did they just FORGET about promoting The House?? I had thought a few months ago based on the trailers and the stars, it could really break out….but wow, this movie coming out felt like an afterthought unlike Get Hard which was unavoidable when it opened a couple of years ago – that got shit reviews too but they opened it pretty well, The House isn’t even going to break $10 million opening weekend which seems crazy for a Will Ferrell comedy vehicle.

    So yes Ethan you called it, take a bow: this could be the first summer in more than 20 years WITHOUT a comedy that makes $100 domestic! The only comedy remaining on the schedule that seems to have a shot is Girls Trip…but Rough Night tanked with more star-power, so that seems unlikely.

  2. brack says:

    Considering the stale properties Disney put out with Pirates 5 and Cars 3, disappointing was what they they were practically shooting for, at least at the box office. Merchandising from Cars and Spidey will help any “disappointment”, and it’s not like Guardians underperformed at all, that 10-15% below expectations sounds like it was plucked out of thin air. Guardians aren’t the Avengers, or even Iron Man/Captain America, so I’d say Guardians once again over performed considering many sequels don’t outdo their predecessors.

  3. Geoff says:

    Brack it’s not pulled out of thin air – every prognosticator (including some on this blog) fair or not was predicting that GOTG2 would clear a billion worldwide and it’s topping out at just over $850 million which is 15% less, simple math my friend. 😉

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    @Geoff, I’m not sure disappointing is accurate yet, given Japan’s PIRATES obsessions could end up shooting it to near $800 million. That’s significantly higher than I thought it would take in given the 25%+ domestic dropoff and currency malaise. GOTG is the biggest movie of the summer for now. CARS is a toys vehicle, but there I’m sure Disney’s dissappointed.

    Ironically, last summer was the real bummer for Disney. BFG. ALICE 2. PETE’S DRAGON. Couldn’t get anything to stick from Spring to Thanksgiving that wasn’t Marvel or the obvious monster of Dory.

    The domestic crown was wrapped when FAST 8 opened below 9-figures. There’s nothing on the calendar that jumps out as ” $300 million diamond in the rough.”

  5. brack says:

    “while profitable probably gross about 10% or 15% below what they were expecting”

    Who exactly is “they”? The only they that matters are the studio execs at Disney, not some foolish predictions on here or any other trumped up analysis page. $1b for Guardians 2 was always reaching. Always.

  6. Triple Option says:

    I saw Baby Driver. It’s kinda cool but it also plateaus somewhat early. It’s funny, I think some of the driving sequences play out better cut out for the trailer than they did overall. I thought it was better than that film with Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, Getaway. But for pure driving intensity, I’m not sure it makes my top five. Certainly not near Ronin, Bullitt or Senna, which yes, is a doc but those other two had me gripping my chair, even Bullitt which I saw on at home on TV.

  7. Geoff says:

    “Who exactly is “they”? The only they that matters are the studio execs at Disney, not some foolish predictions on here or any other trumped up analysis page. $1b for Guardians 2 was always reaching. Always.”

    I’m not exactly clairvoyant Brack but “they” was referring to Disney executives – it’s not out of the realm of possibility either when the last four MCU films they launched in that same EXACT early May slot also cleared a billion worldwide while this one cost about the same as those as well except ‘Ultron.

    I myself always thought $1 billion worldwide was a reach too – GOTG was a surprise hit for sure but all of this hype afterwards about it being the “next Star Wars” and how Chris Pratt was the new Harrison Ford always seemed like too much hyperbole to me…..I know, shocking to hear over-the-top hyperbole regarding a Marvel film.

  8. Geoff says:

    “Certainly not near Ronin, Bullitt or Senna, which yes, is a doc but those other two had me gripping my chair, even Bullitt which I saw on at home on TV.”

    Good choices Brack but no Rush? Great film about racing.

    And I saw Senna in theaters back when I had the time to see every new doc in theaters – fantastic movie but….SPOILER ALERT….I know myself and others in the audience felt somewhat uncomfortable during that hood-POV footage they showed towards the end apparently leading right up to his fatal crash. Still surprised that they got the clearance to show such footage – it was effective but a borderline snuff film at that point. What were your thoughts on that? I mean the footage isn’t graphic or anything but it always reminded me of Grizzly Man when Herzog wouldn’t allow the audio of Timothy Treadwell being attacked by the bear…..

  9. Dr Wally Rises says:

    ‘Blade Runner : Money Never Sleeps’…. That made me smile.

  10. Amblinman says:

    “But for pure driving intensity, I’m not sure it makes my top five”

    That’s probably because save for two sequences, driving doesn’t really play a role in the film.

    Baby Driver is going to be one of those Cool Emporer Has No Clothes scenarios because no one wants to seem unhip in saying Edgar Wright made a shit movie. The writing is pretty terrible. This is Wright’s version of a Tarantino movie and he’s bad at it. I think I hated literally every character in the film.

    How the fuck does this movie not end with an epic car chase? Instead we get a shootout in a parking garage. Woof.

  11. leahnz says:

    wait, WOM finally gets a mention on the hotblog BO ‘analysis’ and it’s for ‘baby driver’??? (which has no word of mouth yet) hahaha
    the dismissal of what WW has done by WOM in what, a mere 30 days of release is kind of pathetic
    (ETA plus a S Korean rip of WW has already leaked online in record time)

  12. palmtree says:

    Leah, I got your back.

    After 29 days, Wonder Woman is a mere $10m behind GOTG2 (at the comparable point) and only about $8m behind Spider-Man.

    Those are deficits I believe it can traverse based on WOM performance. In fact, based on the Friday number, this weekend WW will surpass both those films (edit: surpass their comparable weekend numbers) on its way to probably take the summer crown from Disney. It would be a major coup, so yes, exciting if you were into box office journalism.

  13. leahnz says:

    yes

    and how is it that Jenkins is not automatically directing the rest of the DCU or whatever it’s called, given her film has completely outpaced snyders’ shitshows in every way. weird

  14. palmtree says:

    Well now, people are giving Snyder for setting up Jenkins for success…which is kinda ridiculous. WW is successful because of all the ways it deviated from the Snyder template.

  15. leahnz says:

    people giving Snyder credit for jenkins’ lovely, mythic old-school hard-out action war romance epic is so 2017

  16. Sideshow Bill says:

    I really really really want to see The Little Hours but it’ll never play my city.

  17. jspartisan says:

    Seriously. Dave no selling Wonder Woman, is some bullshit. Absolute bullshit. It’s fucking weird, because Wondie is a phenomenon. Whatever Justice League makes, is because of Wondie. Whatever the DCCU does from here on out, is because Wondie gave people the DC movie, that fucking wanted. It course corrected, hundred of million dollars for Warners, and it will hopefully lead to DCCU being worth a damn from here on out.

  18. Doug R says:

    The first thing as soon as Whedon replaced Snyder on Justice League…More Amazons!

  19. leahnz says:

    a ‘course correction’ for the DC isn’t going to work with the same 2 mediocre (at best) dudes directing
    jenkins’ fresh, earnest, rare-as-hens-teeth female gaze doesn’t pander to an entitled demographic and its glorious

    it’s actually depressing that Diana is chained to this franchise, i wish she weren’t

  20. Triple Option says:

    @Geoff, I did like the movie Rush, thought it was finely made. Right now I’m struggling to remember the driving. I guess I can’t remember if I thought the driving sequences were a bit of a letdown so I guess they weren’t too bad. I may’ve been forgiving or had low expectations as I generally think sports movies don’t do a good job of recreating any of the excitement that sports can deliver. Things always look so choreographed and fake.

    Also, I can’t say I’m the biggest Formula 1 fan. I don’t hate it. Definitely beats NASCAR. I’ve watched some time trials and some pre grand prix events and I found it fascinating to see in person. Unless I had access to some pretty sweet VIP hospitality tent, I doubt I’d ever sit out somewhere to watch a full race. Maybe if I were in Italy and one was going on but I kinda doubt it. I don’t know if my perception of Rush was shaped any by my pre-existing disposition. After I saw it I wasn’t jonesing for more auto racing. I’ll have to take another look at it.

    SENNA **SPOILER ALERT!!** As far as the doc goes, I knew some of the stuff but not all. I had forgotten about some of the tangential occurrences and sequences of some events, like the German driver who died at Imola the day before. When I was watching the film and chron comes up for Aida over the shot of the rain soaked day at the track in Japan, I was thinking to myself, “Wait, does he die here?” and so already the intensity was starting to build for me cuz I knew it was close. Then they opened up on Imola and I thought oh, no, this is it. I didn’t know at what point in the race did it happen. So I was already curling up like waiting for Freddy Kruger to pop out. That last lap was pure terror. I didn’t know if we were going to immediately see a barrier wall popup less than a split second before the camera shot went to snow. The fact that they switched the shot out to aerial view TV coverage I thought lessened the traumatic impact, if you would, for the crash itself. Yes, there was a bit of creepiness and I did wonder if they weren’t going to show us what his last view of life. I was glad that didn’t come up and thought that would’ve been too much. It wasn’t til I was walking out that I remembered that part of the black box recordings had been destroyed and so they couldn’t show more if they wanted to. It was a bit on the morbid side but wherever some ultimate line would’ve been, I don’t think they crossed it.

  21. brack says:

    “I’m not exactly clairvoyant Brack but “they” was referring to Disney executives – it’s not out of the realm of possibility either when the last four MCU films they launched in that same EXACT early May slot also cleared a billion worldwide while this one cost about the same as those as well except ‘Ultron.”

    Guardians 2 is the second most successful first sequel in the MCU after Age of Ultron. It’s out of the realm of realistic expectations to expect Guardians 2, at this early in the franchise, to top $1b. Was it a possibility? Maybe, that’s why it’s called possibility. Realistic though, that I never believed. Like I said, they’re not Avengers or their standalone films, so expecting similar results is a fool’s game.

  22. EtGuild2 says:

    palmtree, you’re setting yourself up for heartbreak. WW needed a -25% hold this week to make it to $400 as it made up no ground against Spidey from last Sunday. Now you’re asking it to hold -25% against HOMECOMING and APES to get there. Too much.

    Still a shot to get to GOTG2 though!

  23. palmtree says:

    I’m not convinced it “needed” to do that. It’s making up ground this weekend on Spidey and that’s what matters.

  24. EtGuild2 says:

    You’re very determined, but I just don’t understand how you think it’ll start holding even better than it has against direct competition and coming Spidey weekday/weekend drops in the teens and twenties.

  25. I believe the only studios with ‘disappointments’ this summer are: Paramount (Transformers: The Last Knight), Universal (The Mummy) and Fox (Alien: Covenant). Not Disney.

  26. cadavra says:

    I’m still amazed at how Disney dropped the ball on CARS 3. They had a chance to greatly expand the franchise to two audiences: women/girls and Latinos, and they totally muffed it in the marketing. Gotta suck for Cristela, as the company cuts her off at the knees for a second time.

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