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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Klady’s Reboot Fever Dream

friday estimates 070817 651w

Okay… At the end of the opening weekend of The Amazing Spider-Man, it had grossed $137 million. Spider-Man: Homecoming is figuring to gross about the same, little more, little less.

Yes, ASM had six days rather than three, opening on July 3. But when the audience knows it has all those days, it tends to wait for the “right” day.

My research indicates that there are only two examples of a non-Friday opening that resulted in a 3-day weekend of $100m or better… and none since 2009. (Those would be Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, aka #2.)

This comes from a time in theatrical when studios and exhibitors were looking to create a release valve for overcrowded $100m opening weekends, when there were longs lines and many sell-outs. The system of accordion-ing the actual screen count (a multiplex putting an anticipated huge opener on a lot of screens then reducing the screens as it loses steam) took hold after that and reached the pinnacle – for now – with the 2015 Force Awakens $258 million 3-day, which would have been functionally impossible in the early/mid 2000s.

Problem was, you had movies like Spider-Man 2, the sequel to the first $100m opening of all time, which opened to a $152 million 5-day… but not a $100m 3-day. Sony could explain to journalists how great the 5-day was, but on the books, not a $100m opening. (And as I think of it, in other research, making complete $100m opening lists, I am also guilty of that misstep.)

In the current synergy between “journalism” and movie studios, opening a movie at 7pm on a Thursday is now considered, without asterisk or any mention, as part of the 3-day opening. The con is on.

This is a side note, as Spidey 2 opened on a Wednesday because of July 4 weekend, but… I was a little shocked by how few Wednesday wide-release openings there are now. Two or three or four a year. And almost all of those are functions of July 4, Thanksgiving, and Christmas and those odd holiday weeks. I found only 11 studio titles that in the last decades that opened on a Wednesday without the holiday issue… and only five since 2010. A Transformers and a Hobbit, each opening a week before the holiday, and Anchorman 2, We’re The Millers, and This is The End, three comedies from three different studios.

Anyway… I think Homecoming will have longer legs than Amazing 1. But for transformational numbers, $600 million overseas is the minimum. That would still only be a $150m improvement over Amazing Spider-Man, but enough to make it look like something. Anything less and there should be some real soul-searching at Sony. There’s nothing wrong with an $800m grossing movie. But there was hysteria in the ranks about a $760m and $710m for the ASM movies. So context is everything.

Nice modest drops for Baby Driver and Wonder Woman.

Nice little launch for A Ghost Story, which will do about $25k per screen on four.

30 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Klady’s Reboot Fever Dream”

  1. Doug R says:

    The big story here is Wonder Woman’s 34% drop, right? 😉

  2. palmtree says:

    The bigger story here is that this weekend, Wonder Woman will surpass GOTG2 at the same point in its run. And it will probably only be $1-2m behind the original Spidey, which means it will probably catch it as well. You’re welcome.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Hahaha…again, WW will need -25% drops from here on out to keep pace with Spidey, which is still absurd to me (it would need to do better in the coming weeks than it has managed yet), unless they have the biggest Labor Day re-release in movie history. But the domestic GOTG2 chase is over, with it fading fast in the last 10 days.

    Superheroes 1-2-3 this summer. Oy.

  4. palmtree says:

    “again, WW will need -25% drops from here on out to keep pace with Spidey”

    again, no. You’re not looking at weekdays, which has been unusually strong for WW.

    But at least we can agree it has taken the summer title from GOTG2.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    “again, no. You’re not looking at weekdays, which has been unusually strong for WW.”

    Actually, yes. I’m assuming WW will continue to drop right where it has been week-over-week, at 33 or 34% (excluding this past holiday week). Spidey dropped around 27% over weekdays in the coming weeks, so to make up the last couple million, it would need weekend drops in the mid twenties.

    I’m actually rooting for it though I swear! This has been an entertaining weekly debate, and WW is doing better than I could have imagined. Looking at an all-time Top 3 multiplier for a $100 milion+ debut.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    On WW’s multiplier btw, it needs to get to about $390 million to have the best multiplier of any movie with a $100 million debut…ever (Friday openings). That seems very likely. In fact, INSIDE OUT looks to be the only $80 million+ debut with a better multiplier.

    That is WONDROUS, and the idea of a superhero movie having the best holds of any mega-opener ever released seems crazy, so maybe anything is possible. Trying hard not to make a joke about long legs….

  7. palmtree says:

    Last week’s drop was almost exactly 25%, so it has managed it.

    I know you’re rooting for it…390 would still be pretty sweet. But I’m seeing 400.

  8. Geoffs says:

    Ethan I’m not seeing how WW needs to drop only 25% to catch Spider-Man – Spider-Man in 2002 was not a particularly leggy movie and it had as much tough competition in its second month than Wonder Woman likely will, June 2002 was pretty crowded with hits including The Bourne Identity, Minority Report, and Lilo & Stitch….and for some reason Sony felt the need to crowd the schedule that summer with its own films to take more screens away from Spidey faster. It dropped almost 50% in weekend 5 and almost 40% in weekend 8….so for WW to pass it is not insurmountable in the slightest though I do think an August re- release will only help.

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    This probably is gonna make me look like an idiot but I really liked Ghost In The Shell. It’s all surface pleasure but it’s a hell of a surface. I say this while keeping in mind the “white washing.” I agree an Asian actress should have been cast. But it didn’t bother me in the movie. Perhaps because I have no real reference point as I’ve never seen the anime. Makes me want to seek it out though.

    Also, since I won’t see Spider-Man until next week, I checked out John Watts first film, Clown, on Netflix. Even as a horror junkie I’d been avoiding it because it has Eli Roth’s name attached and I think that particular emperor has no clothes. But I enjoyed the movie. It had it’s concept and went with it, not shying away from the ridiculous and the outright dark stuff. What amazes me is wondering what Marvel/Disney et al saw in that film to hire Watts for a family superhero film. It was well made but if I had seen it before I knew Watts directed S:H I never would have guessed.

  10. jspartisan says:

    Watts got Spidey, because of Cop Car. Apparently, Feige and Co., like the way he directed the kids. They knew they were going young with Spidey, so they want someone who would be good with teenagers/kids.

    Also, I love Ghost in the Shell, because it takes the concept (“ghost” aka Souls), and makes it into a movie about family. The whole white washing thing, is such garbage in terms of THIS MOVIE, because the movie is about HANKA believing IDENTITY isn’t important to humanity. It so doesn’t care about it, that they put an Asian woman’s brain in a white shell. Of course, the other part about family, is Juliette Binoche’s character crafted the Major’s body, to look like a daughter. There’s a lot of shit going on in that movie, and it’s a nice added piece to the anime.

    Aside from the Major… David, the Amazing Spidey movies, were shit. Yes. They made money, but there was no way to create an EXPANDED UNIVERSE from that garbage. Now? They have the MSCU, they have a Spidey for a new generation, and can build on this base. Sometimes, the previous house wasn’t shit, but it was just enough shit to need a new one. Sony has a new house, and 800m seems low. It’s the third part, of the TRIFECTA Summer films and seriously though, that’s a solid fucking line up of comic book movies. Where’s cadavra to state, that shit peaked :D?

  11. Geoffs says:

    Just curious JS but what does MSCU stand for? I had thought it was Marvel Cinematic Universe.

  12. Bulldog68 says:

    Was kinda surprised that there are only four more animated movies left to be released this year, and the only one with a chance of crossing $200m is Coco. With DM3 not exploding, it’s actually a remarkable difference from the past two years 5 crossing the double century mark including 3 above 3, and 2015 gave us 3 above $200m including 2 above 3.

    Are we looking at a year with no $300m animated grosser after the boon of the past two years.

    What’s also weird is that Mojo does not have animated releases between Leap in August and Coco in November, and then none until Incredibles in June. For sure there is the Lego Ninjago Movie and Ferdinand this year so they have missed a few. I used to think they were very reliable with this sort of thing.

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    @Geoff, from weekend 7-10, the average weekend drop was about -31% with average weekday drops of -27% w-o-w. So far WWs drops have been -37% and -34% respectively, so it’ll have to really improve its performance from here out to overtake it (it’s slightly behind on weekends and ahead on weekdays).

    @Bulldog, make sure you click “Animation” instead of “Computer Animation.” They have Ninjago, The Star (biblical indie), Ferdinand, My Little Pony and more there. Not sure what they think Ninjago or Ferdinand is…but they’re there.

    They also have a Peter Rabbit adaptation, an untitled Fox (Blue Sky+Dreamworks…wtf?) in March which I assume doesn’t exist, and “Gnomeo and Juliet 2: Sherlock Gnomes” which had the working title “Johnny Depp Hits Rock Bottom.”

  14. Js partisan says:

    Geoff, it really isn’t the Marvel Cinematic Universe, because these movies are made by Marvel Studios. That’s why I threw in the S, because it makes more sense, at least to me!

  15. Pete B says:

    JS, you were the biggest fanboy for The Amazing Spider-man. What happened? Did it not age well for you?
    Not trying to be a dick, just genuinely curious.

  16. Triple Option says:

    Wait, what’s the difference between Marvel Cinematic Universe and Marvel Studios? I thought Marvel Studios down in ATL was where they were starting to shoot all these Marvel films?

  17. jspartisan says:

    Marvel Studio, are the ones responsible, from Iron Man to Homecoming. Once Kevin was freed from Ike. That’s the moment it’s been all Marvel Studios all the time, so it’s the MSCU.

    Pete B, it’s like First Class. The more you watch it. The more fucking annoying it becomes. Also, Andrew and Emma, look like a bunch of fucking narcs in ASM. It’s easier to think of that movie, as a part of the Jumpstreet universe, than a Spider-man movie.

  18. leahnz says:

    i think it’s an electric cello

  19. brack says:

    “In the current synergy between “journalism” and movie studios, opening a movie at 7pm on a Thursday is now considered, without asterisk or any mention, as part of the 3-day opening. The con is on.”

    It’s a “con” only because the idea of midnight showings have become too connected with the midnight mass shootings. And besides, Thursday night showings can be soft and still deliver a huge three-day opening weekend. Probably about as many people will see those showings as they would a midnight, and if they were just midnight, there would be multiple screens at each and every theater (New Moon was showed on practically every screen with its midnight opening) A 3 1/4 day opening is still not even close to being the same as a 5 day opening, it’s such a small window of time compared to almost two whole complete days in comparison.

  20. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Whatever your take on the two ASM movies, I’m still kinda sorry that we’re not going to get a Black Cat movie with Felicity Jones. When they made ASM 2 surely they knew that Jones was on her way to becoming a Star, and she has, what, maybe half a dozen lines in that movie? What a tragic waste of a potential franchise.

    Glad people enjoyed Ghost in the Shell, to my mind it’s one of those that you can’t claim to be a great movie, but it is going to be a reference piece of home theatre. I’m going to get the Blu Ray for that reason, but, the question is, do I get the 3D edition (with the TV manufacturers phasing out 3D on newer models), or do I spring for the Blu Ray and 4K edition even though I don’t have a 4K panel or player yet? Gotta love these first world problems….

  21. EtGuild2 says:

    Visually, it’s definitely one of if not the most arresting movies since AVATAR. Anyway Criterion could release “Cyborg Johannson: The Complete Collection” featuring Ghost, Under the Skin, Lucy and Her on 4K???

  22. Night Owl says:

    Eh, let them have their Thursdays. Opening weekend is a marketing gimmick, not a particularly interesting statistic to me. Only four of the top ten domestic grossers also had top ten domestic opening weekends. A top opening weekend means something extraordinary is happening except for all those times it has meant nothing extraordinary is happening. *Shrug*

  23. GSpot 3000 says:

    I’m not a Marvel fanboy by any stretch, but I thought this Spidey was head and shoulders above any previous Spidey film before it. A stunningly effective crowd pleaser, expertly designed to make you smile. Even though the weekend number ended up down from where they thought Friday night, I’m thinking this guy could take advantage of a weak August to end up making a surprising run for the summer crown.

    What do you guys think?

  24. David Poland says:

    Brack – A 7p show and a 9:30 show and a midnight show is not a quarter day at the box office. And it isn’t just happening because Midnight shows are dangerous.

  25. jspartisan says:

    No, it’s happening, because they wrote an article about it. The best part of realized, that they could just LA (Thursday night showings of new movies) the rest of the country. Why they never did this before, with Thursday nights, is perplexing as shit. Nevertheless, it’s cool to see shit Thursday night, then Friday morning.

  26. brack says:

    David there are no midnight showings anymore. Not where I have lived in quite some time. And yeah, when the new Spider-Man has only two showings versus the 8 (just an avaegage) due to it being on two to three screens on opening weekend, I’d say 1/4 in generous.

  27. leahnz says:

    oh my gosh i had a shitload of tabs open on my browser and quickly posted that comment in the wrong window, no wonder it didn’t show up there, it was here all nonsensical

    (ta Doug R, that’s what i was referring to, good catch)

  28. Triple Option says:

    I’d venture a guess that the diminished number of midnight showings is due to…money! Thurs midnight movies were reserved for highly anticipated tentpoles. There was also a certain necessity/utility factor as people were getting shutout of sold-out Friday & Sat night showings. This being America, people thought, “hell, if we can make money at midnight, we prolly can make MORE money if we offered a 10 PM showing as well.” And so they did. So two showings were making money but someone musta looked at what the slots were pulling and determined that they could make more money if it were showing at a more convenient, traditional time. And so next we have the 7:30/8PM screenings to go with the 10 PM and midnight showings.

    Now I’m thinking someone looks at the numbers and determines that the midnight showings aren’t pulling in percentage wise what they used to. Maybe the 8 & 10 showings are cannibalizing ticket sales?? But if you also consider the added costs of keeping a business open another couple of hours, with surely OT being paid for those midnight screenings, it’s regrettable yet understandable that they’d drop the midnight showings.

    I don’t know how contracts between distributors and exhibitors work, as far as when the theaters are first able to show a film, but I’m sure that’s prolly changed over the years. 4200+ screens, multiplexes with 3 screens dedicated to one film, movies selling out and experiencing losses due to walkaways isn’t really happening as much. Midnight screenings on any night aren’t filling the same purposes, I don’t think. As it was, they only were in place opening w/e. Occasionally, if there was another big draw a theater would have 2-3 late starting films but that really died 15-20 years.

    I really liked the midnight screening atmosphere. I had thought about seeing Spidey Homecoming at midnight but 11 PM was the latest somewhat near to me.

    This is not to say that the Aurora shooting didn’t alter some thinking of the gen public and exhibitors in terms of safety/liability but I think the pendulum was already swinging away from these occurrences and the scarcity of finding midnight showings would be in place now regardless.

  29. Triple Option says:

    @GSpot 3000, I really enjoyed this latest Spidey. It’s hard for me to say I liked it more than Spidey II, since I was really blown away at the time, but this was pretty fantastic. I did think it was too long and maybe some things set up earlier on could’ve been wrapped up tighter but I can’t argue w/anyone who says this was the best of them all.

    I think this was really a teen movie housed in a superhero film. Much like Spidey II was really a romance film set in a comic book world. These will prolly be the things necessary to keep comic book films fresh. I had a few good laughs — I’m still thinking about the “How long have I been…? part. But I tell you, the audience I saw it with just totally ate it up!

    Was it Amblinman who said it was the best of the superhero films this year? Not sure who all was mocking him but apologies may be in order.

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