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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Second Weekend Klady



27 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Second Weekend Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Could WW catch SUICIDE SQUAD? The SS lead from a week ago has already been slashed from $30 million to $17 million, so it seems possible. If it holds the same this coming week as the previous one it’d be neck and neck next Sunday. Not to get expectations to high, but BvS and GOTG are just beyond it:)

    The UNDERPANTS hold is sadly weak, and this looks like Dreamworks’ worst non-Aardman domestic result in 15 years. I enjoyed it more than any top-tier (Disney A, Pixar, Ilumination and DWA) animated movie since INSIDE OUT, but unless the books are a sensation in Europe (it has a strangely slow rollout) it’s a dud :'(. Everything not involving Marvel/DC is a dud this summer!

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    Btw the theater counts for next week are interesting. Entertainment Studios is going with what has to be the widest studio debut in history for 47 METERS DOWN. Mandy Moore certainly has had an interesting career, from C-list teen pop star to indie acoustic flower pop vocalist, to fronting studio rom com disasters, to the voice of Rapunzel, to disappearing for 5 years, to star of this TV season’s breakout network show to now this.

    And Lionsgate is going with a straight urban count for Tupac (350 theaters less than COMPTON) for now and minimal marketing in my area at least, which is sad, given that it has good buzz.

    Here’s hoping one of those (or ROUGH NIGHT) can break out.

  3. palmtree says:

    BvS and GOTG aren’t that much higher than SS. Why would SS be in range and not the other two?

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    BvS and GOTG have such unusual polar-opposite trajectories it’s hard to comp the math in my mind….BVS has probably the most staggering dropoff for a mega-opener ever and GOTG possibly the best multiplier ever for a superhero movie. But you’re right.

    ADD-ON: GOTG had a 3.55 multiplier. Wonder Woman would need about 3.25 to beat it. Doable after this weekend it would seem.

  5. TrackerBacker says:

    Rough Night isn’t going to break out. And Entertainment Studios is partnering with Aviron (risen from the ashes of Clarius) on the release of 47 Meters Down.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s interesting. Regardless, this appears to be the sixth widest non-major/Lionsgate release in history and the largest debut. The others being Twilight sequels, Scary Movie 4 and a cartoon.

    And I’m not expecting much from ROUGH NIGHT. If it and THE HOUSE don’t land though, we’d seemingly be headed for the first summer without a $100 million comedy since 1995. That seems crazy.

  7. Sideshow Bill says:

    As I age (46) I get less mean and judgmental about what other people watch and enjoy. I try not to go negative too much. That being said, if I were rooting against a movie this Summer it would be Transformers 5. I would not be heartbroken to see it bomb. I mean, if you enjoy them that’s great. But I’m tired of them and the money spent on them.I lost interest after the mildly entertaining first one. Bay has wasted years when he could have maybe developing artistically rather than repeating himself. I was one of the few that really liked Pain & Gain. It was crass and ridiculous but I laughed a lot. But he really hasn’t grown as an director and spending 10 years making TF movies hasn’t helped.

    Rough Night has my $$ for Illana Glazer and Jillian Bell. The House…I’m normally down for Ferrell and Poehler but the trailers have been laughless. Jason Mantzoukas will probably be the MVP if that’s any good at all.

    Waiting until Father’s Day weekend for Wonder Woman, with my daughter’s. Very much looking forward to it. Crowds should be a bit more manageable.

  8. Geoff says:

    Yeah I’m not sure how high Wonder Woman can go but if Man of Steel could get to $291 million domestic with even tougher competition (June 2013 was brutal by historical comparisons), then I don’t see how this doesn’t clear $300 million domestic….yeah $325 to $340 million is attainable which would put it in the ballpark of GOTG, BVS, and SS but it’s going to be tough to hold on to screens over the next few weeks. Frankly I’m amazed it held THIS well this weekend even after losing all IMAX screens to The Mummy. If it’s getting near that area, I could see Warners giving it a late August re-release or expansion….as long as it collects its money within two weeks so it doesn’t bump up against IT too much, which I’m guessing they’re going to put a full court press behind opening.

    Overseas I don’t see it catching Suicide Squad even with China providing a solid gross, while SS didn’t even get released in China – it actually dropped more overseas this weekend than domestically so I can’t see things getting easier, but it has a few larger markets to open in overseas….Lucy did $336 million overseas so this topping out a bit above that is a good likelihood. Yup I’m guessing around $700 million worldwide is where it ends up.

    There’s no way around it, this is a big win for WB/DC but you just KNOW they want that billion dollar hit….if Justice League is actually good and they market it as “Wonder Woman returns….with friends!” enough, then that’s possible.

    And yes JS, I can see Warner Bros doing a legit Oscar push especially for Jenkins for Best Director – they nabbed 10 nominations and 6 wins for ‘Fury Road just a couple of years ago so if any studio could pull it off, WB could. Not only could it help keep buzz going for Justice Leaugue which would be in theaters at the time but an awards-winning entry in the DCEU would help give it more legitimacy to be comparable to the MCU.

    As for the rest of the field Ethan, I would be SHOCKED if at least one comedy this summer doesn’t break $100 million domestic – no reason that Rough Night and The House can’t BOTH do that, I have to admit that The House looks damn funny from those trailers. And consider me STILL shocked that The Boss Baby has made this much – $171 million domestic and it’s close to $500 million worldwide, did that happen because of Alec Baldwin?? Is he suddenly an actual draw? :)

  9. Heather says:

    The closest comparison right to WW is Guardians of the Galaxy. Right now, it’s 30million ahead and next weekend doesn’t offer any new direct competition. I’d say $350million is a sure thing, with $375-$400million possible.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    Holy cow this got out of hand quickly. To get to $375, it’d need to hold better than any Top 50 opener (excluding weekday rollouts) aside from TOY STORY 3 or FORCE AWAKENS. I suppose anything’s possible, but c’mon.

    Baldwin is definitely zeitgeisty now, and that’s the perfect marriage of voice and character. I find the whole phenomenon bewildering since I’m not a fan of the Trump impression, but they should have put him in suit and wig bicycling next to Diane Lane on the PARIS CAN WAIT posters.

  11. Movieman says:

    Hope the failure of “It Comes at Night” (and the even bigger failure of “Free Fire” in April) doesn’t scare A24 from taking “A Ghost Story” wide next month.

    But who am I kidding?
    “Ghost” looks like another A24 movie that will please their base (urban hipsters and/or people who read serious film criticism) but enrage the unwashed multiplex masses because it doesn’t deliver the same genre beats as a Blumhouse release. Another “D” (or lower) CinemaScore, I’m sure.
    A24 is my favorite new(ish) distrib on the block. I’d hate to see them go belly-up because of hubris. Maybe it’d be wise to hold off on any add’l wide release plans for awhile.

  12. Eric says:

    I got to admit I am not rooting for the House to be a hit. Because i fear the better it does the worse Baby Driver does that weekend, and it would be nice to have a Edgar Wright movie break out at least a little with mainstream moviegoers. Right it now I fear it will be this summer’s Nice Guys. Of Course that film’s director coexisted with Marvel on his previous film and got a big hit out of it.

  13. Geoff says:

    I don’t see Wonder Woman getting to $350 million domestic nor does it need to – the first Guardians opened in August and had virtually no competition for a month and a half, which allowed it to hold on to screens a lot more easily.

  14. TrackerBacker says:

    A24 has no plans to go wide on A Ghost Story.

    If Rough Night gets to $100M domestic, I’ll donate $1,000 to a charity of this message board’s choosing.

  15. Movieman says:

    No plans, TB?
    Considering how ubiquitous the trailer has been at my podunk multiplex lately (matched only by the inescapable “Transformers 5″), I was thinking A24 must be planning a wide break.

  16. TrackerBacker says:

    Nope, no plans. Of course, if they average $50K a screen on their 2nd weekend expansion, that might change. But there’s no real marketable hook to sell it to mainstream audiences in the way that there was for The Witch or It Comes at Night (and, yes, I realize A Ghost Story is not a thriller/horror; I’m simply giving examples of challenging movies that they’ve released that are easier to sell mainstream).

  17. Stella's Boy says:

    Would It Comes at Night have done better in October? It might not have made any difference, but early summer seems like a bad release date for an arty horror movie. I guess February didn’t help The Witch.

    I agree with all of the criticism of The Mummy and I didn’t really like it, but I also didn’t hate it. It’s easily one of the most boring characters Cruise has ever played and he phones it in, something he doesn’t do very often. Tonally it’s all over the place (I hated Johnson’s character) and the action scenes are OK but nothing memorable or impressive. It certainly isn’t scary. But all the same I was never bored and it didn’t grate on me as much as it left me feeling “meh that was fine, definitely not good but not totally terrible either.” Very disappointing though as I really wanted the Dark Universe to start strongly. Where does it go from here?

  18. Michael Bergeron says:

    American Werewolf in London was Universal and Jake Johnson’s character was a redux of Griffin Dunne’s turn as a dead character

  19. Stella's Boy says:

    Yes I get that. It’s very clear. The problem is Jake Johnson is no Griffin Dunne, and The Mummy 2017 is no American Werewolf in London.

  20. hcat says:

    So my shorthand estimates put Wonder Woman at 337 domestic. Double the weekend take, add the current total and that is normally what wide release will end at. You need to adjust a little depending on which side of the 50% drop they are on so its still a little bit of a crap shoot but still pretty accurate.

  21. EtGuild2 says:

    That would put it neck and neck with MOCKINGJAY I among the Top 5 female-led movies. We can debate how responsible women are for HG, SW, and BATB but it’s interesting that 5 years ago, this would have been at the top by a good margin.

  22. hcat says:

    A24’s wide releases have had different trajectories even with the poor cinema scores. Witch got better than decent reviews but a basement cinemascore yet still did 3x opening while Free Fire barely did 2X. So there is still a chance that “Night” might have some legs, just not with the New Line horror audience.

  23. Js partisan says:

    Let’s give it up to the Universal execs, who are throwing Tom Cruise under the fucking bus, to save their Dark Universe. Seriously, why would Cruise ever work with these people again?

  24. leahnz says:

    maybe he’s under contract

  25. hcat says:

    All this blaming Cruise for shanghaiing Mummy is complete idiocy. Forget having him participate in future Mummy projects, they need him to do another charm offensive for American Made in six months.

    I haven’t seen it but for anyone who has, was there any inkling of a decent more thoughtful movie underneath the star vehicle? I am often reminded in these circumstances of I, Robot, which I enjoy a lot more than most people but you can feel the push and pull between the script that wants to play in the Robot world and the obvious revisions that make it a Will Smith Actioner. But nothing I have read about Mummy makes it sound like such a feathered fish. Honestly if they had some compelling stories to attach to these properties they wouldn’t be hiring these expensive yet declining stars to sell them.

    At least by all accounts if they found Cruise’s intense involvement as a meddling distraction they will find Depp’s work ethic a refreshing change. Based on what has been said about the Pirates shoot the Invisible Man is the perfect role for him.

  26. Js partisan says:

    Hcat, the only thing he seemingly did, was change who the Mummy was, and this changed everything. I agree, it’s weird that they are doing this, when they have to sell another one of his movies this year. This is Universal though. It’s what’s they do.

  27. Stella's Boy says:

    There is not any inkling of a more thoughtful movie underneath the star vehicle. I do agree with a lot of what the Variety story about Cruise’s alleged control over the production says about the movie itself. It’s an awkward blend of Cruise summer action movie, horror movie, and launch of a shared universe. It feels very tinkered with. And I like Cruise a lot but it’s one of the most boring characters he’s ever played. The hardest working man in showbiz doesn’t phone it in, but this is close.

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