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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by A Midsummer’s Day Klady

Screen Shot 2017-06-25 at 9AM

Sorry about that wrong chart…

Nothing much different than yesterday. Every film seems to have had a slightly stronger Saturday than normal. Is that a function of no NBA Finals, MLB All-Stars, and a generally lazy weekend before the holiday? Maybe. Is WB jockeying for position over Disney? Maybe.

Want to see a place when Rotten Tomatoes may have really mattered at the box office? The Beguiled had soft reviews and while audiences showed up at its four screens on Friday, the rest of the weekend was relatively soft. The Big Sick has glowing reviews (and a cast willing to work screenings) and showed up strong on Friday… and got stronger over the weekend. The question, as far as RT goes, is whether this was just a function of the New York Times and LA Times reviews in the two markets where it opened. But I believe that for small films – and really, for big films too – there is a vibe created, that includes reviews and feature stories and RT, and the audiences of these kinds of films pay attention.

It’s also worth noting that The Big Sick is an Amazon movie, bought at Sundance. They choose to work with the traditional windowed model (in this case, in partnership with Lionsgate). And you may notice that Amazon is not the story the media focuses on when it comes to this movie. So the question… Is it better for the company when, as with Netflix, every story about their movies leads with the company and its philosophy? Or is it better when Amazon is in the background as part of a happy success story? I suspect that each company would actively advocate for the benefits of their particular strategy.

This from Team 3D, regarding Transformers – “The highest performing 3D countries internationally include China (99%), Russia (58%), Germany (86%), Hong Kong (41%), and The Netherlands (100%). In the United States, 34% of the film’s $69 million opening came from 3D performances.”

The 3D business isn’t going away. But its scale is now minimized in the domestic market. Transformers 5 still did 67% of its worldwide opening weekend in 3D. A film doing 1/3 of its business in 3D is a solid win now. And in the places where the numbers are over 80%, it is a function of limiting the options of ticket buyers, not choice. Ironically, the most consistent domestic 3D market is kids’ movies… though under 6s are really not mature enough to sit still, leave the glasses on, and enjoy the benefits for which their parents pay extra.

By the way… in the hit indies of summer category, the two big winners so far are A24 with It Comes At Night and Bleecker Street with Megan Levey.

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55 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by A Midsummer’s Day Klady”

  1. jspartisan says:

    Transformers, is now the ICE AGE, of live action films. Good job, to everyone involved. Here’s to Bumblebee, being the Transformers movie, that people have really wanted for the last 10 years. Here’s to China, not bailing this movie out though. Enough of this fucking nonsense. Everyone involved deserves better.

    Also, if Wonder Woman beats Cars. Someone at Disney or Pixar, should be held accountable for not pushing Cruz Martinez. Seriously. How do you get that Cars 3 ad campaign, without really selling what the film is about? Like little boys understand what it means, to be past your prime. Such an unforced fucking error, on Disney’s part.

  2. Sideshow Bill says:

    The reason I don’t talk box office numbers too much is because I’m almost always wrong. I saw great things for Rough Night, and I thought All Eyze On Me would have have legs. I was horribly mistaken. I was right about Transformers, though. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    Seriously, I’m with JS. Enough with Transformers. The first one is fine. The rest I can’t deal with. I’ve debated about whether or not Bay has just been spinning his wheels (pun intended) for the last 10 years and resisting artistic growth, or if this is just what he is. I really liked Pain & Gain. It’s as indulgent as the TF movies in it’s own way but I found it fun. Haven’t seen the Benghazi movie and don’t plan to. I tend to think he is what he is at this point. Hope he proves me wrong.

  3. Tracker Backer says:

    Entertainment Studios released 47 Meters Down, not All Eyez On Me.

  4. Js partisan says:

    Bill, All Eyez on Me would have had legs. If you know, it wasn’t a shit take on Tupac’s life.

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    I dig it, JS. I’ve heard nothing but bad things.

  6. Bulldog68 says:

    Kind of odd Dave, that two weeks in a row you’ve had no comment on WW. It deserves mentioning for its strength, its place in the comic book adaptation genre, its place in the DC Universe, and what that means. I find your lack of faith disturbing. 🙂

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    I wonder if the CARS toy business is good enough to keep making flicks even if the movies themselves start bleeding red. This one might not get to $400 million.

  8. palmtree says:

    Bulldog, in the previous blog post DP says GOTG2 wins the summer. This was premature, because Wonder Woman is going to give it a run for its money. At the rate WW is going, 400 is possible.

  9. YancySkancy says:

    I don’t know if it’s a big factor in the minimization of 3D in the domestic market, but here in the flyover zone, the Real 3D we get just doesn’t cut it. It made Beauty and the Beast looked so dim and dismal, I purposely saw Wonder Woman flat, and will avoid 3D completely from now on, unless it’s IMAX.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    400 for WW still seems virtually impossible to me, because as of tomorrow it will still be 10-11 million behind SPIDER-MAN (which finished with 403) which means it hasn’t actually gained ground since opening weekend despite its performance, and Spidey’s weekends are still better…with average 34% drops in weekends 5-10 (Tom Holland’s Spidey, meanwhile is what might doom it).

    I’d buy on it topping GOTG2 at 4:1 odds though.

  11. palmtree says:

    “it hasn’t actually gained ground since opening weekend despite its performance, and Spidey’s weekends are still better…with average 34% drops in weekends 5-10”

    The weekends are only part of the story. Spidey had better weekends, but Wonder Woman has way better weekdays. It is gaining on Spidey each day, making its weekend leads disappear. So yes, it has gained ground and will continue to.

  12. EtGuild2 says:

    Memorial Day will wipe out the last 20 days of incremental gains it had made in a single fell swoop tomorrow so it’ll be starting from scratch again Tuesday.

  13. Night Owl says:

    I drew the short straw and had to sit through Transformers. I don’t like to engage in outrageous hyperbola…but…I’d be happy if everyone in that movie or involved in filming never worked again so I’d never have to be even slightly tangentially reminded of it. That bad. Complete garbage without a single redeeming factor. Hollywood should be embarrassed it exists and China should be ashamed of its role in keeping this film series above water. Absolute garbage.

  14. palmtree says:

    WW earned $5 million more in its most recent Monday-Thursday than Spidey did at the comparable point in its run. $5m doesn’t sound small to me.

    And those gains are not wiped out; they are holding.

    At this point in both runs, the weekdays are going to play a larger and larger role, and that favors WW. Unless the bottom falls out, legs will carry the day.

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    I hope you’re right, but these coming weekdays as a whole will be a wash; if it falls ~25% over the holiday weekend and does bananas business next Monday and Tuesday it will still have a shot. It has to do that since SpideyTobey started having week-over-week weekday drops in the teens in June as school let out, while Wonder Woman has to worry about SpideyTom.

    Regardless, I’m more optimistic about it passing GOTG (773) and Deadpool (783-yes without China) worldwide which would be great. If Japan’s female heroine obsession can get it to $30 million, it’s doable.

  16. charles mayaki says:

    @NIght owl.

    Don’t blame the Chinese. They seem to hate this one as much as everyone else.

    But good old Paramount hustled a Chinese distributor who guaranteed them $100m nobody what the gross is. (paramount isn’t distributing it themselves. They sold it off). It looks like a $40 million loss for the distributor because the movie is crashing there.

  17. Geoff says:

    Even if you spot Spider-Man (2002) that Memorial Day, having a $14 million lead at this point is NOT insurmountable…..still not likely, but not insurmountable.

    I CAN see Disney and WB making a genuine horse-race of this come August maybe re-releasing both films just before Labor Day to take on a couple of million to ensure the summer crown who knows? A PERFECTLY-timed re-release (and I mean perfectly) is probably Wonder Woman’s best shot at hitting $400 million domestic and beating GOTG2. I have a feeling it won’t happen but I think it would be a nifty idea to have the Blu-Ray come out in early November the same day as Thor Ragnarok and a short stint re-release one or two weeks before to help get folks more primed for Justice League, send a nice FU note to Marvel, AND kick off an Oscar campaign. Why not?? 🙂

    I can remember WAY back in the day in ’94 when I was in college and working at a movie theater how Disney just LITERALLY pissed on the aspiring competition by announcing a re-release of The Lion King for a limited run….just to squash any chance that New Line’s heavily hyped The Swan Princess had of getting any traction on its opening weekend. And squash it they did…..

  18. Movieman says:

    I wish somebody would give that 3-D memo to my local theaters:
    3-D showtimes always outnumber the # of 2-D ones by a wide margin.
    And they deliberately schedule the few 2-D performances at the most inconvenient times (e.g., 10:30 A.M., 6 P.M. and/or 10:45 P.M.)
    One theater opened “The Mummy” on two screens and didn’t offer a single 2-D option,

  19. Ryan says:

    So, nobody above seems to believe that the new Spiderman has a chance at beating GOTG for the top summer spot? People must be really high on the success of Planet of the Apes, because I don’t see anything else preventing a Spiderman/IronMan movie from having July to itself.

  20. Eric says:

    Tom Holland as Spider-Man is genuinely appealing, but the movie itself looks like nothing special and audiences are probably exhausted by Sony’s strip-mining of the character. It’ll do well but I’d be shocked if the character can bounce back so soon after three garbage movies in a row.

  21. Stella's Boy says:

    Eric I also wonder about audience exhaustion, and possibly confusion. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 obviously isn’t beloved and didn’t set the domestic box office on fire, but it’s only three years old. I wonder how that factors into this one’s box office, if at all.

  22. Geoff says:

    Iron Man 4: Rise of SpiderMan seems like it could explode at least on paper – you have two of the top three biggest comic book character IP’s in one movie, that would have been an automatic billion worldwide just a few years ago. But wow you’ve had eleven movies combined featuring either of these characters over the past 15 years so it’s hard to tell if the demand for a team-up is that strong. The early reviews seem to be good so far so who knows? It’s sandwiched between Despicable Me 3 and Apes on Horses so I don’t see it dominating the month…I think a $100 million domestic opening, $280 million domestic BO and $800 million WW BO is a fair prediction.

  23. Geoff says:

    And yeah, does Sony even know how to open a blockbuster anymore?? They’ve bungled the marketing for their biggest summer blockbusters at least four years in a row now: White House Down, Elysium, Amazing Spiderman 2, Pixels, and Ghostbusters.

  24. jspartisan says:

    Homecoming should hit the 800m sweet spot. It’s hard to get people excited for a third reboot, in just 15 years. Apparently, it’s an amazingly fun movie, and if it gets high RT marks. Watch people come out in spades, because people seemingly want… a fun Spider-man movie. It’s a thing, that they haven’t had in awhile, so they will probably jump at the chance… if it has a high RT score :D!

    Geoff, I would love to watch this Apes on Horses movie. It seems a lot more thrilling, than the one we get in the theatres. Maybe, it can be actual Apes on horses? One could dream.

  25. hcat says:

    Looks like the reviews are already coming in very positively for Apes, and man is that early to drop? Outside of a festival bow I don’t remember the last time embargoes ended two plus weeks before opening. Do you think this means they are confident that Spidey is a bust or fearful that they aren’t going to get into the conversation after it opens?

    With weekends of Apes, Dunkirk, Atomic Blonde, Detroit, Lucky Logan….May 1st be damned Dad Summer movie season starts July 14th

  26. Bulldog68 says:

    Anecdotally, I’m thinking this Spiderman is more a continuation of Civil War as opposed to Amazing Spiderman 2. Nobody from the Andrew Garfield universe is showing up, so I think that it improves it’s chances of exceeding that $202m total, based on that alone.

    I’m just wondering timeline wise, how they’ll do it. As far as reboots go, it’s no longer an origin story, he already has his powers, and I really don’t want to see Uncle Ben killed a third time. So to me it’s more about just jumping in and continuing the story from Civil War, Spidey was already introduced and “rebooted” now let’s just have some fun.

    I think there is still a lingering fatigue factor from AS2 but if the movie is good it will overcome it. My prediction is $275m-$325m.

  27. palmtree says:

    As a Marvel-approved film, I’m sure it will do well. But because of the fatigue, it won’t feel as fresh as the original one felt. So $300m seems about right.

  28. EtGuild2 says:

    Disney did indeed jump the gun to beat WW. Everything came in lower in finals at the top, but CARS came in way lower.

  29. jspartisan says:

    The Cars 3 advertising campaign, makes the Dad part of brain… all sorts of pissed the fuck off. God forbid, that the mousehouse isn’t fucking weird with gender and one of their properties. That it was beaten by Wonder Woman in week three, is pretty amazing.

  30. hcat says:

    Changing the subject and medium just for kicks but does anyone know if the ratings for Twin Peaks have improved. I am normally not at all a fan of television, no matter how well done, it just takes too damn long and think that 90% of even great achievements are just filler and wheel spinning (look Draper took off again), but after the massive swoon over the latest episode I might have to check it out down the line.

    But I was wondering if after the soft premiere (and I do know that people don’t watch tv during the initial broadcast anymore, but even the plus whatever was under two million IIRC) things picked up due to the acclaim. Lynch seems to act like the 2001 Monolith pointing a medium in one direction and when it catches up he points it even further down the line. Meanwhile the vast majority of viewers are still contented with the tried and true Ape shows.

  31. Sideshow Bill says:

    Geoff, I don’t think even good marketing would have saved Pixels. What a god-awful movie that was, and it smelled from miles away.

  32. Sideshow Bill says:

    hcat, I don’t know about how the ratings have held. My gut tells me they’ve probably fallen off especially after the brilliant hour that was episode 8. I think the die hard Lynch people are still with it, like me, but I suspect casual fans and even some fans of the original have checked out. I saw a lot of complaints from original TP fans about the recent episode. Doesn’t matter to me though. Still got 10 more hours to look forward to. It seems like Lynch, at a time when a lot of artists “lose it,” is at the top of his game and using the series to sum up the themes and ideas he’s pursued in his life, art, music and film. It could end up being a masterwork.

  33. Ray Pride says:

    The ratings have to be measured across multiple platforms. Check Kate Aurthur’s piece here. “Those numbers include viewership across Showtime’s channels, delayed viewing, on-demand viewing, and streaming. It’s the streaming where things get truly complicated, considering all of the options there are to do that: Showtime’s standalone streaming service, launched in July 2015, is available through Apple TV, Hulu, Amazon, Roku, Sling TV, and more. As Showtime has stated previously — without releasing hard numbers — the weekend of the Twin Peaks premiere accounted for the network’s best days ever for sign-ups for its streaming service. And, according to Showtime, Twin Peaks has the highest percentage of streaming viewers of any of its original shows. This is the future, especially for premium channels such as Showtime and HBO, which don’t rely on an advertising-based model for revenue… What’s certainly true is that Nielsen, which measures audiences on linear TV and accounted for the early dismissal of Twin Peaks’ ratings, is fairly useless here. All of those companies mentioned above (plus Sony PlayStation Vue, plus Google, plus Samsung, and, yes, there are probably more services offering the Showtime app that I don’t even know about) give Showtime their own additional viewer figures.”

  34. Movieman says:

    Bill: “Peaks” ep. 8?
    My reaction went from “WTF?!?” to “OMG” in a nanosecond (as my jaw dropped to the floor and remained there for 58 minutes).
    I thought I’d been transported back to a 1971 midnight movie in the balcony of NYC’s late, great Elgin Theater: I could practically smell the pot fumes wafting from every corner.
    I have no idea what I saw on Sunday night, but I know that I’ll never forget it.

  35. hcat says:

    Thank you Mr. Pride. I am always curious about how this peak TV thing is going. If its just the same 5 million people watching the 30 or so acclaimed series to the wee hours of the morning while the other 95% of viewers don’t venture from NCIS and American Ninja Challenge. I suppose its the same with the film industry where the top notch stuff is hunted out by the smallest population but now that every episode of every show has such a potential long tail its tough to see whats broken from the pack.

  36. leahnz says:

    i did a 30-day free trial thingy just because they have the 8 eps of the new TP, i’m vaguely terrified to watch it now

    super OT: america you in so much danger girl

  37. jspartisan says:

    Leah, we had McCarthyism into the 1970. Levels of stupid, are what we endure. We fucking endure. Fuck IN GOD WE TRUST. WE ENDURE… is the true national motto.

  38. leahnz says:

    so what’re you trying to say js? haha

    problem is, when nukes are on the table ‘the fate of the world’ is not hyperbole. the planet will probably survive us, not necessarily the other way around

  39. Sideshow Bill says:

    We’re not just enduring stupidity, we’re enduring bald-faced evil. That’s the biggest challenge and the scariest thing. But I’ve decided that I can still live a happy life while all this is going on. I resist, donate, do my part but I’m not going to be miserable like I was for the first few months after November 8. I refuse to let the fuckers win.

    Movieman, I would kill to see Ep 8 on a big digital screen, with full sound. It was like a visit to Eraserhead-land. I get the gist of what I saw but like you I’m still happily puzzled. But I had a grin on my face through the whole thing. MacLachlan better get some Emmy consideration because is so good here. So menacing as Dark Cooper. Naomi Watts is fantastic, too. It’s been a joy to behold.

  40. hcat says:

    So I have a heart and head argument after seeing the Greatest Showman trailer. Very little dialogue, all quick cuts of sweeping scenes and the song does all the work….yet it got me damned excited to see more.

  41. jspartisan says:

    It looks goofy as fucking hell, Hcat. I’ll probably love it. Whomever is playing the beard lady, is going to blow the fuck up. It’s obvious from that trailer, that she’s going to be a thing.

  42. EtGuild2 says:

    UGH Despicable Me 3 sucks…I started gritting my teeth 45 minutes in. But yup, the kids in my theater were howling with glee. I think Illumination’s creative team is actually a bunch of 7-year olds standing on top of each other in suits dressed up as adults.

  43. Movieman says:

    Does anyone know why–besides a fervent desire for poor Sony to finally have another hit–that “S-M: Homecoming” has been getting such positive buzz?
    Saw it last night and my reaction was pretty much meh. For as many things that it does right–dispensing with the whole “how I developed super powers” origin stuff; a delightful multiculturalism; Tom Holland–it fumbles just as many.
    The action setpieces and CGI are resolutely ho-hum, it’s (big surprise) at least 20 minutes too long and Michael Keaton’s villain is sorely underwritten. (I couldn’t tell whether the “Birdman” refs were homage or “Uh, we really didn’t think this out, did we?”)
    Overall it’s competent but uninspired.
    Anyone else?
    P.S.= The 10 minutes of Dell and Audi infomercials that preceded the movie at my (2-D, thank you) promotional were about as welcome as discovering a cockroach at the bottom of my popcorn bag.

  44. Stella's Boy says:

    Movieman was the good buzz just comic book nerds saying it looks great? Or was it based on something else? I just read the reviews in the trades and it sounds awful. A YA Spider-Man tricked out with so many gadgets he’s basically Iron Man, Jr. Screams wait for cable.

  45. hcat says:

    Movieman, A little curious about the Dell and Audi commercials, were they

    A) presented after the listed start time of the movie
    B) before or after the trailers
    c) brands that were noticeably promoted in the movie

    If anyone is going to make a deal to further push advertisements into a big movie its going to be a studio on the ropes like Sony. I am already peeved at the peppy infomercials that play prior to the films, I certainly hope this is not a studio mandated ad attached to the actual film and just something the theater chain is selling you.

    and so as a franchise this makes Spidey 1 maybe 2 for 6 (though that good one was fantastic). Outside of the Police Academy movies and what…maybe Francis has a franchise lasted this long and done these returns with such mediocrity? Even Fast and Furious had turned it around by now.

    APES WILL RISE!!!!!!!

  46. EtGuild2 says:

    I wish I could connect with APES more. I fall into the uncanny valley, where the CGI is distracting as a fan of the original movies (as beautiful as it looks, it still doesn’t look like a realistic portrayal of real life Apes and human interactions to me), Caesar’s Batman voice is distracting, and the acting is wildly uneven from borderline camp to genuinely strong performances side by side.

    But I think mostly I have the same problem as I do with the new STAR TREKS. Socio-philosophic purpose has been for the most part been supplanted by (albeit well done) action that leaves me cold in relation to the spirit of the source.

  47. Movieman says:

    Hcat- I’d never seen anything like it before. Certainly not at a screening.
    All four of the mini-infomercials were somehow linked to the movie–there was even footage of Holland playing Peter Parker–so it was clearly done w/ Sony’s participation. At the end of the 10-minute hard-sell, an Audi spokesperson actually says that he hopes we enjoy the movie. I wanted to tell him I might have been in a better frame of mind to enjoy it minus the interminable advertising spiel that preceded it.
    Audi got a lot of shout-outs in the actual movie; not sure how ubiquitous the Dell computers were. I wasn’t paying a lot of attention to the software used by the characters.
    No trailers, but that’s pretty much standard at promos or screenings (unless they’re tacked onto the print of the film).
    And yes, the ads began promptly at 7:00–the advertised start time of the movie.
    P.S.= “Caesar’s Batman voice,” lol. Very funny, Et, and very true.

  48. Js partisan says:

    Homecoming is getting praise, because the Amazing movies were such shit. Also, movie, people want to see a good Spider-Man movie. 15 years ago, that first Spidey movie did something to everyone’s moviegoing psyche, and people really want to a good Spidey movie. You put him and the MSCU together, and you get a lot of enjoyment for people who love movies just as much as you do.

  49. hcat says:


    I disagree that the new apes skimps on the socio-philosophic aspects, it just chose different ones than the original run. As for the acting, other than Malfoy I cant think you might have an issue with. Even Brian Cox and Oldman who has a tendency to go big kept themselves in check.

    As for Star Trek, my chief complaint about the most recent is that they didn’t play up the juxtaposition of Kirk and the Bad Guy and how strength is created, it was certainly given lower priority to the “I have the Beats and Screaming” surfing on a wave of fire action sequences.

    Though I have to say the last Trek was closest to what I like about the originals. The first film was about Kirk earning his captains chair, fine, the second had him having to earn it again, ugh. Now the adventures are treated like another day at the office which is how the characters should be approached. Trek is not a Hero’s Journey like Potter or Star Wars, it is a professional at work like Bond or Die Hard.

  50. hcat says:

    JS, IIRC you were the Amazing Spider-Man films biggest cheerleader.

  51. EtGuild2 says:

    Eh, I suppose different is fair though I’d choose “non-relevant.” The movies went from allegorically hot-button stuff to borderline fantasy ethical quandaries.

    Oyelowo hammed it up in the first one IMO and Franco is a klaxon of camp but that’s a personal issue perhaps (Pinto is downright terrible but that’s just in general I suppose). The second one was more grounded…haven’t seen the new one, but hoping it brings me on board.

  52. hcat says:

    I could see how the first would be fantasy ethics with the genetic testing, but the second was about two opposing sides trying to rebuild trust against internal factions that push for war at the slightest provocation due to previous injuries. I don’t see how that would ever be non relevant.

    Glad you’re still on board for a third though.

  53. Bulldog68 says:

    Of course the lazy comparison is that WW is to DC, what Captain America is to Marvel, due to the WW1 setting, although, due to the mythological aspects, she may be more akin to Thor. Notwithstanding, WW is set double Cpt America’s debut domestic gross some time today, with Thor’s debut to follow in two weeks or so. It’s also possible she could double Cpt America’s worldwide gross of $370m as well.

    The average domestic gross for the DC extended universe is now $319m. The average for Marvel, including Avengers is $307m. So for all the talk of Marvel muscle, DC is ahead of the box office game domestically. Take away the two Avengers movies, (I’m tempted to take away Civil War as well, but won’t), and the average is $271m. Below DC’s lowest grosser Man of Steel. Ain’t that something. How’s that Tomato Score working for ya?

  54. Doug R says:

    As of Thursday, Wonder Woman has passed MoS, SS and BvS AND she’s only 28 days in.

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