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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Are We There Yet? Klady

Friday Estimates 651w 2017-04-29 at 8.43.32 AM copy

This weekend’s dismal box office is a result of majors clearing out two weeks of space after The Fate of the Furious combined with a couple of weak WB releases just before Fate that will each be under $3m this weekend.

Even had Fate performed as expected/feared domestically, there would still be plenty of room for other films in the weeks before and after. The exhibition business is structured for it. Would it have made sense for a movie like King Arthur to try to take advantage of the space between Fate and Guardians instead of hammocking between Guardians and Alien: Covenant? I think so. Would Amityville: The Awakening been better served in this slot than the intensely crowded July 4 pre-week? You betcha.

Ironic that the Wall Street Journal just did a piece about how wide open distribution has become in the non-Summer window while we were in a month with only one serious major studio release.

Last year, the widest and highest-grossing opening for a non-English market domestic release was No Manches Frida with $3.7 million on 362 screens. The biggest Indian film was a $3.2m launch on 331 screens for Dangal. There is solid business in these markets, playing to diverse audiences in North America in limited release. Dangal was not only the high mark for these films with $12.4 million, never going wider than 338 screens, but the high grosser for all films that never went wider than 500.

Baahubali 2: The Conclusion is not only about to blow away the opening record for these films with its 434-screen opening, but will likely outgross Dangal‘s US run in one weekend.

Right after that is Lionsgate’s latest experiment in the Spanish-speaking market, How To Be A Latin Lover, starring Mexican star Eugenio Derbez, doubling the opening day of their last effort with Derbez, Instructions Not Included. That film played strong for a month. Will this fast opening make for a shorter run?

This makes it all the more painful for STX, unable to open The Circle, starring the lead of a billion-dollar grosser this year and Tom Hanks, to as much as $10 million.

6 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Are We There Yet? Klady”

  1. Tom says:

    Great performance by BAAHUBALI 2! With grosses like that, I hope that film doesn’t turn out to be “the conclusion” for the series.

    Beautiful to see diverse movies shine at the box office, whether it’s the multiracial team of the Furious films, the non-English language speakers in Baahubali 2 and How to Be A Latin Lover, the infants of The Boss Baby, or the elderly of Going in Style. Performers of every age, race, language, and creed are being represented on screen and theatergoers are voting with their wallets against all those who want to “build that wall.”

    Such a shame that Sleight did so poorly. I thought it was supposed to be the first great black superhero movie.

  2. Pete B says:

    Not sure how they’re “voting with their wallets”?

    Sleight was not even playing in my neighborhood.

    Saw an advanced screening of King Arthur, and its a rather muddled mess. It should have taken advantage of this weekend, instead of getting crushed by GotG2.

  3. Thorough Henry says:

    I’m curious to see if Derbez tries to cross over to the mainstream and how successful he is if he does. It seems like he doesn’t have as large a niche audience as Tyler Perry does, so I’m excited to see where he goes from here.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    “I thought it was supposed to be the first great black superhero movie.”

    Michael Jai White claimed that title either 10 or 20 years ago depending on what you think of SPAWN/whether BLACK DYNAMITE counts as a superhero 😛

  5. Charles Mayaki says:

    @thoroughly henry. Mr. Derbez has signed on for a remake of the Goldie/Russell picture Overboard so he is making the moves.

    But what is mainstream anyway? Even a 100 million dollar grosser is a niche.

    I mean his movies already play to Mexican audiences and gross $40 million.

    Madea pictures have done 90 million with Tyler not going mainstream

    Empire was the number one show on network TV while pulling an 88% African American audience.

    Horror movies are niche. Comedies are niche. Everything is a niche.
    Religious movies gross 70 million playing to a niche.

    Even Denzel is niche. The average Denzel movie consistently has a slightly 50% African American audience. Excessive overrepresentation there.

    If a movie makes 40 million playing only to Caucasians, I never hear anyone saying they have to go mainstream.

    Anyway, I get it; if Empire had the same interest among other races at the peak of its popularity, it would be pulling ratings not seen since the early eighties.

    If Mr. Derbez could get interest outside the Mexican market as within, he would be delivering 60 million dollar opening weekends and so would Tyler.

    So I guess there is something to be said in going mainstream.

  6. Thorough Henry says:

    @CharlesMayaki I didn’t mean to denigrate anything that Mr. Derbez is doing. If he wants to make movies that are only targeted at HIspanic/Latino audiences he is clearly going to be successful, and I agree with you that anything that isn’t a four-quadrant blockbuster is “niche” at this point. I’m just curious to see whether he chooses to dominate his market (a la Perry) or try to expand.

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