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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Get Oscar Klady

weekend estimates 22617 9a


Get Out dominates the Oscar weekend estimates, without clearly signaling how it will play over time. But figure the Sunday estimate is intentionally soft with Oscars happening with a strong Saturday that bodes well long-term for the horror/comedy/thriller. Rock Dog crapped on the living room rug. My Life as a Zucchini joins Get Out as the only $10k per-screen (albeit on 2 screens) this weekend.

This is the 7th straight year without a Best Picture nominee in the Top 5 of the domestic box office.

With La La Land at #8, we may have the highest-ranked box office Best Picture winner since Million Dollar Baby was #6 in 2005 and Chicago at #6 in 2003.

American Sniper was #6 in its Best Picture-losing Oscar weekend in 2015. Likewise, Silver Linings Playbook in 2013. The last domestic Top 5 appearance by a Best Picture nominee was Avatar in 2010.

Last year, the highest ranking box Best Picture nominee on Oscar night was The Revenant at #10, followed by The Big Short at #16. Combined, they generated $5 million that weekend…or about 500,000 tickets sold. No other BP nominee was over $751k. The third weekend of Deadpool is what people were talking about in the real world.

Hidden Figures and La La Land are actually doing really well by the standard of Oscar weekend grosses. But with the long Oscar Phase II, which is now mostly dead time, Lionsgate has a movie it is spending into more aggressively, John Wick: Chapter 2, because why spend a fortune chasing what La La Land already has. Fox isn’t exactly killing itself for Hidden Figures in Phase II either. Both of these films are big winners and every million thrown as probably-already-settled-in Oscar chasing is a million less profitable.

The weekend before the Super Bowl, all 7 Best Picture nominees that were still in release were at $1 million or better at the box office. We’re down to 3 this weekend.

There are a million excuses for pushing Oscar to the end of February. They are mostly about how hard it is to do the show. Some people still hand onto the claim that voters have a hard time seeing all the movies they want to see before voting… after 3 full months of the wide screening for voters every single movie that isn’t foreign or short or documentary. And people still complain that there isn’t enough time when late February voting starts. Stop whining and just deal with reality.

Anwyay…

Get Out killed it. How leggy? Ask me next weekend.

The Lego Batman Movie may or may not get to $200m domestic. Time will tell.

John Wick: Chapter 2 will make a run at $100 million. Maybe… looking better now.

I Am Not Your Negro will be the highest grossing theatrical film for Magnolia since 2010. Quite remarkable.

Lionsgate and Open Road has openings this weekend. Out of kindness, I will stop there.

Interestingly, at this late awards date, The Salesman has passed Toni Erdmann at the domestic box office.

Lion continues to build into one of the top TWC domestic grossers of the last 3 years. Moonlight is A24’s 3rd $20m movie in its young history. La La Land is Lionsgate’s biggest grossing non-franchise original. Manchester by the Sea is Roadside Attractions biggest release by more than double. Pretty strong year by these standards.

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10 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Get Oscar Klady”

  1. Sideshow Bill says:

    the Bill Paxton news is heartbreaking. I’ve been a HUGE fan since 1985. I watched Weird Science just for his scenes. Director and musician. Consumate character actor. A Simple Plan is so underrated. That needs a deluxe Blu Ray. I’m sad today.

    But happy for Get Out. And the emerging (stupid) controversy around it is going to only help it. Haven’t seen it yet but I expect to soon.

  2. Dr Wally Rises says:

    What he said, A Simple Plan is just a phenomenal flick. Crafted like a Swiss watch. Yes, we all know about his grandstanding moments in Aliens, but he could bring subtlety too when he needed to. The most recent film I saw him in was Million Dollar Arm, where he brought an innate decency and heart to what could have been a boilerplate role. Very sad loss.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Sometimes I feel like Oscilloscope has some mission statement not to make money. They are slow rolling KEDI when this could easily, easily be their biggest hit of all time. It’s already on the verge of their Top 10 and it’s only played in 13 theatres for fuck’s sake! Their business model is just video, video, video I guess.

    LA LA LAND’s box office has recently been overshadowed a bit, but it’s the first live action move to spend more than 10 straight weeks in the Top 10 since THE KING’S SPEECH.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    After the absurd $94 million opening for RS6 in China, look at the worldwide chart for 2017 so far….LOOK AT IT!:

    01. XXX
    02. Fifty Shades Darker
    03. Your Name (Japan. These are really 2016 numbers being counted due to US release)
    04. Kung Fu Yoga (China)
    05. Journey to the West 2 (China)
    06. Resident Evil 6 (Thanks to China)
    07. LEGO MOVIE
    08. Split
    09. Duckweed (China)
    10. The Great Wall (thanks to China)

    Even if RE6 stalls at $170 million in China, those are game-changing numbers ( approx $70 million inflation USD adjusted) for Screen Gems at this point, and means the franchise can’t die. Like it or not, we now live in a world where the stardom of people like Vin Diesel and the power of B movie franchises like this and WARCRAFT are going to really alter things.

  5. Joe Leydon says:

    Is it my imagination, or did the world just look at trailers for Jackie, shrug, and say, “Thanks, but no thanks”?

  6. Warren says:

    The only problem is China only returns about 25%, so it’s not as game-changing as it seems–I don’t think we’ll see a Warcraft 2.

  7. Movieman says:

    Speaking of Screen Gems, am I the only one who was surprised to discover that “Unforgettable” was a WB April release and not a weekend-after-Labor-Day SG release?
    Yes, I know that Katherine Heigl ain’t Regina King, but seriously. It looks like a slightly paler (Rosario Dawson costars after all) variation on the “Fatal Attraction”/”Hand That Rocks the Cradle” knock-offs SG has been pumping out for years.
    Even weirder is that “Unforgettable” appears to have April 21 mostly to itself. (A cut-rate Weinstein ‘toon, another Disney nature doc and an A24 movie that’s unlikely to be a very wide release hardly seem like competition. )
    Can early tracking really be that good?

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    I think it changes the game for low-to-mid budget franchises until there’s a new revenue structure. I mean, how does Universal not jump on RIDDICK 4 after taking one glance at the XXX grosses? $170 million in China is still enough to knock out $30 million in production costs.

  9. Movieman says:

    Pretty embarrassing that neither Variety or “newspaper of record” NYT has posted a “Collide” review a full week after its debut in U.S. theaters.

  10. EtGuild2 says:

    I’ll believe this when it’s real, but Deadline is estimating COLLIDE with a $193 PTA second weekend. On Friday, it’s estimated to have sold 7 tickets per theater.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Coco 4.2 3748 -33% 121.4
The Disaster Artist 2.6 840 416% 4.2
Justice League 2.5 3508 -44% 203.9
Wonder 2.5 3519 -31% 94.4
Thor: Ragnarok 1.7 3047 -38% 296.5
Daddy's Home 2 1.6 3263 -24% 86.7
Murder on the Orient Express 1.5 3089 -26% 89.1
Just Getting Started 1.1 2161 NEW 1.1
Lady Bird 1 1557 -19% 19.8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 0.8 1620 -40% 16.3
Also Debuting
Unexpectedly Yours 88,700 49
I, Tonya 84,300 4
Furkey Returns 49,900 69
Sat Shri Akaal England 43,200 38
Malli Raava 30,700 46
Noel & Cie 12,500 48
November Criminals 2,600 20
Bullet Head 1,900 9
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4