By David Poland firstname.lastname@example.org
Weekend Estimates by Get Oscar Klady
Get Out dominates the Oscar weekend estimates, without clearly signaling how it will play over time. But figure the Sunday estimate is intentionally soft with Oscars happening with a strong Saturday that bodes well long-term for the horror/comedy/thriller. Rock Dog crapped on the living room rug. My Life as a Zucchini joins Get Out as the only $10k per-screen (albeit on 2 screens) this weekend.
This is the 7th straight year without a Best Picture nominee in the Top 5 of the domestic box office.
With La La Land at #8, we may have the highest-ranked box office Best Picture winner since Million Dollar Baby was #6 in 2005 and Chicago at #6 in 2003.
American Sniper was #6 in its Best Picture-losing Oscar weekend in 2015. Likewise, Silver Linings Playbook in 2013. The last domestic Top 5 appearance by a Best Picture nominee was Avatar in 2010.
Last year, the highest ranking box Best Picture nominee on Oscar night was The Revenant at #10, followed by The Big Short at #16. Combined, they generated $5 million that weekend…or about 500,000 tickets sold. No other BP nominee was over $751k. The third weekend of Deadpool is what people were talking about in the real world.
Hidden Figures and La La Land are actually doing really well by the standard of Oscar weekend grosses. But with the long Oscar Phase II, which is now mostly dead time, Lionsgate has a movie it is spending into more aggressively, John Wick: Chapter 2, because why spend a fortune chasing what La La Land already has. Fox isn’t exactly killing itself for Hidden Figures in Phase II either. Both of these films are big winners and every million thrown as probably-already-settled-in Oscar chasing is a million less profitable.
The weekend before the Super Bowl, all 7 Best Picture nominees that were still in release were at $1 million or better at the box office. We’re down to 3 this weekend.
There are a million excuses for pushing Oscar to the end of February. They are mostly about how hard it is to do the show. Some people still hand onto the claim that voters have a hard time seeing all the movies they want to see before voting… after 3 full months of the wide screening for voters every single movie that isn’t foreign or short or documentary. And people still complain that there isn’t enough time when late February voting starts. Stop whining and just deal with reality.
Get Out killed it. How leggy? Ask me next weekend.
The Lego Batman Movie may or may not get to $200m domestic. Time will tell.
John Wick: Chapter 2 will make a run at $100 million. Maybe… looking better now.
I Am Not Your Negro will be the highest grossing theatrical film for Magnolia since 2010. Quite remarkable.
Lionsgate and Open Road has openings this weekend. Out of kindness, I will stop there.
Interestingly, at this late awards date, The Salesman has passed Toni Erdmann at the domestic box office.
Lion continues to build into one of the top TWC domestic grossers of the last 3 years. Moonlight is A24’s 3rd $20m movie in its young history. La La Land is Lionsgate’s biggest grossing non-franchise original. Manchester by the Sea is Roadside Attractions biggest release by more than double. Pretty strong year by these standards.