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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by 3rd Weekend Personality Klady

Weekend Estimates 020517 10a

Super Bowl eats Sunday at the box office. Rings falls like a stone, allowing Split to rise to the top again, though the Split estimate seems a little high. Both Hidden Figures and La La Land estimate with an eye to being Sunday counter-programming. Again, finals may vary. And The Space Between Us finds too much space in theaters. And I Am Not Your Negro dominates in limited (45 screens), more than doubling any other film’s per-screen for the weekend.

Covered most of this weekend yesterday.

Split passes $100m domestic before next Friday. Becomes Jason Blum’s #1 all-time domestic grosser next weekend.

Sony made a point of sending out international numbers on Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, which has already done almost $95m internationally to its soft numbers here at home.

Likewise, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage is chasing worldwide breakeven with $112m international in the bank and just under $40m at home.

Rogue One, by the way, is just over $1 billion thanks to China’s $69 million… which is really like $35 million in juxtaposition to the returns in other international markets… but still, just over a billion. Anyone who claims Disney didn’t expect to get to this number is living in a fantasy. But anyone who assumes they expected a lot more is equally (more, really) deluded. The film performed almost exactly as expected.

The only Oscar bump in play is with smaller movies, like The Saleman, Toni Erdmann, The Red Turtle, and I Am Not Your Negro, which is not the frontrunner for Best Documentary, but may make Team OJ chafe a little.

Lion expanded to 1405 screens from 575 and did modestly well, but most of the bump for Best Picture movies in wider release is just slower droppage.

Screen Shot 2017-02-05 at 1.09.58 PM

8 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by 3rd Weekend Personality Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    One interesting element of Best Picture grosses this year is that no one’s really complaining about grosses–even though the average per film is one of the lowest on record due to no smash hit nominee and only a few movies above $70 million.

    I think that’s because there’s no bottom feeder this year. MOONLIGHT, at nearly $20 million, is actually the “highest grossing lowest grosser” among yearly Best Picture nominees since THERE WILL BE BLOOD all the way back in 2007.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    Question on STX Entertainment (which has had a rough patch with SPACE BETWEEN US and sadly EDGE OF SEVENTEEN)….are they really hard up for cash? Because I just realized they are releasing BAD DADS this summer, and A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS this fall. In the history of Hollywood sequels this might be the craziest thing I’ve ever heard of…a whole trilogy in 18 months.

  3. Night Owl says:

    China is the only reason we have billion dollar movies this year. Take China out of the equation and Civil War misses the billion mark by almost $40 million, Rogue One by roughly $20 million, and Zootopia misses the mark by move than $200 million. We will see where this all goes.

    Disney must be loving the domestic numbers they are getting from Star Wars overall. Expected or not, over $500 million domestic for Rogue One is phenomenal. They will need that domestic popularity as I expect Han Solo to be met in China with a shrug. Episode 8 will do fine in China but I don’t anticipate much growth if any. Star Wars is just not catching on in certain Asian markets, but with the money from elsewhere I am not sure they are that concerned?

  4. Movielocke says:

    Anecdotally, it feelsI like the ad buy for rogue one was at least a tier below the ad buy for force awakens as well. More like 150 M than 200 M if so thatmakes a 500 domestic for rogue one much closer to profitability than force awakens was when it only had 500 domestic in the bank. If fox can get into profit on the Star Wars films from domestic alone then the international haul is just grotesque levels of pure profit relative to most other international billion dollar movies that require international to hit profitability.

  5. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Regarding Rogue One and the prevarication over its international performance. Heavy smog over urban China on its opening weekend. Much of Europe has shivered through its coldest winter in years. These factors probably cost the movie a sizeable chunk of change – moviegoing doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

  6. Bulldog68 says:

    With the exception of Split, every “horror” this year has opened to $13m. Underworld, Bye Bye Man, Resident Evil, and now Rings. Is there some sort of unlucky numerical pattern here?

  7. TrackerBacker says:

    ET: There’s no way STX will release BAD DADS this year (if ever). It’s not cast, has no director, etc. Their focus will be on BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s good to know. That just boggled me when I looked at STX’s schedule.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4