Gurus o’ Gold: Last Guesses Before Nominations

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 99
2 Moonlight
2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 10 89
3 Manchester By The Sea
3 3 3 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 10 81
4 Arrival
4 6 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 10 68
5 Hell or High Water
4 7 7 5 5 5 8 7 7 9 61
6 Lion
5 5 5 5 6 8 6 4 5 6 10 55
7 Fences
6 7 6 6 8 7 10 7 6 5 10 42
8 Hidden Figures
8 8 9 9 7 6 7 6 10 8 10 32
9 Hacksaw Ridge
7 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 24
10 Silence
10 9 10 10 10 5 6
Jackie
10 10 9 3 5
One Vote Wonders
Nocturnal Animals
9 1 2
Deadpool
10 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Damien Chazelle
1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 10 47
2 Barry Jenkins
2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 10 43
3 Kenneth Lonergan
4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 10 26
4 Denis Villeneuve
3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 10 22
5 Martin Scorsese
5 5 3 3 5
Garth Davis
5 5 5 5 4 4
David MacKenzie
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Pablo Larrain
6 1 1
Denzel Washington
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Casey Affleck
Manchester By The Sea
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 50
2 2 Denzel Washington
Fences
2 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 2 2 10 36
3 3 Ryan Gosling
La La Land
3 3 2 3 3 2 2 5 3 3 10 31
4 Andrew Garfield
Hacksaw Ridge
4 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 5 4 10 19
5 Viggo Mortensen
Captain Fantastic
5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 8 11
Joel Edgerton
Loving
5 4 2 3
5 Andrew Garfield
Silence
0 0
4 Tom Hanks
Sully
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Emma Stone
La La Land
2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 10 47
2 2 Natalie Portman
Jackie
1 2 3 2 2 4 2 1 2 9 35
3 Amy Adams
Arrival
3 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 9 27
4 5 isabelle Huppert
Elle
1 3 5 5 4 2 5 4 5 9 20
5 Meryl Streep
Florence Foster Jenkins
5 5 4 4 4 5 4 7 11
3 Annette Bening
20th Century Women
5 4 5 5 4 5
4 Ruth Negga
Loving
4 3 2 5
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Mahershala Ali
Moonlight
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 50
2 2 Jeff Bridges
Hell of High Water
4 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 2 10 35
3 4 Dev Patel
Lion
2 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 3 4 10 30
4 3 Lucas Hedges
Manchester By The Sea
3 4 5 4 4 2 3 7 17
5 Hugh Grant
Florence Foster Jenkins
5 4 4 3 5 5 5 7 11
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Nocturnal Animals
5 5 5 5 4 4
5 Michael Shannon
Nocturnal Animals
0 0
One Vote Wonders
Kevin Costner
Hidden Figures
4 1 2
Ben Foster
Hell of High Water
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Viola Davis
Fences
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 50
2 2 Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 10 37
3 3 Naomie Harris
Moonlight
4 3 2 4 4 2 4 2 3 3 10 29
4 4 Nicole Kidman
Lion
5 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 9 20
5 Octavia Spencer
Hidden Figures
3 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 12
5 Janelle Monae
Hidden Figures
5 5 2 2
Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 1 Manchester by the Sea
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 49
2 3 La La Land
1 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 10 37
3 4 Hell or HIgh Water
4 2 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 10 31
4 The Lobster
3 3 4 5 4 4 5 7 14
5 20th Century Women
5 4 4 5 5 5 7
Captain Fantastic
5 5 5 5 4 5 6
5 Jackie
3 4 2 5
Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Moonlight
(changed categories)
3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 10 47
2 1 Arrival
2 2 2 4 2 4 2 3 3 9 30
t3 4 Lion
4 2 3 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 10 24
t3 2 Fences
4 3 2 3 3 1 2 7 24
5 5 Hidden Figures
5 5 5 5 2 4 5 7 11
Nocturnal Animals
1 5 5 5 4 8
Hacksaw Ridge
3 4 2 5
One Vote Wonders
3 Silence
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Animated Feature AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Zootopia
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 50
2 Kubo & The 2 Strings
2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 10 37
3 Moana
5 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 10 31
4 The Red Turtle
3 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 9 16
5 Finding Dory
4 5 4 5 5 4 6 9
My Life As a Zucchini
5 4 5 3 4
One Vote Wonders
Sing
4 1 2
Trolls
5 1 1
April & The Extraordinary World
6 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Foreign Langauge AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Toni Erdmann
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 10 49
2 The Salesman
2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 10 38
3 Land of Mine
4 3 3 4 2 4 3 3 3 5 10 26
4 A Man Called Ove
3 5 5 3 4 1 4 5 4 3 10 23
5 My Life as a Zucchini
5 5 5 4 4 5
It's Only The End Of The World
4 5 5 3 4
Tanna
4 5 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Paradise
4 1 2
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Oj: Made in America
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 49
2 I Am Not Your Negro
3 2 2 3 2 2 3 5 3 3 10 32
3 13th
1 4 2 3 4 4 2 2 2 9 30
4 Cameraperson
4 3 3 5 4 5 11
5 Weiner
5 5 5 3 3 5 6 10
The Eagle Huntres
5 5 4 4 4 6
Life, Animated
4 2 2 6
Tower
4 5 2 3
One Vote Wonders
The Ivory Game
4 1 2
Fire At Sea
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 45
2 Moonlight
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 7 27
3 Lion
3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 8 18
4 Jackie
4 4 4 2 2 5 14
5 Rogue One
4 3 3 3 8
The BFG
5 3 3 3 7
Hidden Figures
5 5 5 5 4 4
Nocturnal Animals
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Florence Foster Jenkins
2 1 4
Arrival
3 1 3
The Jungle Book
4 1 2
Kubo & The 2 Strings
5 1 1
Moana
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Original Song AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 City of Stars
La La Land
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 10 49
t2 Audition
La La Land
3 2 2 4 1 2 5 3 3 9 29
t2 How Far I'll Go
Moana
4 3 3 2 4 3 2 2 2 9 29
4 Runnin'
Hidden Figures
4 5 3 3 3 4 6 14
5 Can't Stop The Feeling
Trolls
2 4 3 4 4 5 13
Drive It Like You Stole It
Sing Street
5 4 5 3 4
Faith
Sing
5 5 5 3 3
One Vote Wonders
Shiny
Moana
2 1 4
Letter To The Free
13th
4 1 2
I'm Still Here
Miss Sharon Jones!
5 1 1
Try Everything
Zootopia
5 1 1
You're Welcome!
Moana
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 9 43
2 Arrival
3 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 9 32
3 Moonlight
2 2 3 2 2 1 3 3 5 9 31
4 Silence
4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 9 15
5 Lion
5 4 5 4 4 5 6 9
Jackie
4 4 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Hail, Caesar!
5 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Costumes AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Jackie
1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 10 45
2 La La Land
2 2 2 4 1 1 2 2 2 1 10 41
3 Florence Foster Jenkins
4 4 3 2 3 1 4 3 3 9 27
4 Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them
5 3 3 4 5 3 5 4 8 16
5 Silence
3 3 2 6
The Dressmaker
4 5 4 3 5
Allied
5 5 5 3 3
Hidden Figures
5 4 2 3
Hail, Caesar!
4 5 2 3

0 0
One Vote Wonders
Live By Night
5 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Production Design AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 10 49
2 Jackie
3 5 2 4 2 4 5 2 2 9 25
3 Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them
2 3 2 5 4 3 3 3 8 23
4 Arrival
4 2 3 3 3 1 4 7 22
Silence
5 3 5 4 5 4 6 10
5 Hail, Caesar!
4 5 2 4 5 5 10
The Handmaiden
4 3 2 5
Nocturnal Animals
2 5 2 5
One Vote Wonders
The Jungle Book
5 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Hair/Make-Up AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 Florence Foster Jenkins
1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 27
2 Deadpool
2 1 3 2 1 3 3 7 13
3 Star Trek: Beyond
3 2 3 2 2 5 8
Jackie
1 2 2 5
Hail, Caesar!
3 3 2 3 4
A Man Called Ove
3 3 3 3 3

Rank Last Chart Best Editing AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 10 48
2 Moonlight
2 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 10 40
3 Arrival
4 4 3 4 3 5 2 4 8 19
4 Hacksaw Ridge
4 5 4 2 5 3 3 7 16
5 Manchester by the Sea
3 5 3 4 5 5 10
Hell or High Water
3 4 4 3 7
Silence
5 3 5 3 5
Rogue One
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
The Jungle Book
4 1 2
Lion
5 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Visual Effects AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 The Jungle Book
1 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 44
2 Doctor Strange
3 1 2 4 2 2 2 5 2 9 31
3 Rogue One
2 4 1 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 10 29
4 Arrival
5 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 5 5 10 26
5 Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them
4 5 5 5 5 3 4 4 8 13
Kubo & The Two Strings
4 5 2 3
Florence Foster Jenkins
0 0
One Vote Wonders
Captain America: Civil War
2 1 4
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Editing AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
3 3 3 1 4 2 1 1 8 30
t2 Hacksaw Ridge
1 4 4 1 5 2 4 3 2 9 28
t2 Arrival
4 1 1 2 1 1 4 7 28
4 Rogue One
2 3 2 4 2 2 5 5 3 9 26
5 The Jungle Book
5 2 5 5 1 4 5 7 15
Deepwater Horizon
5 5 3 4 4 7
Deadpool
4 3 5 3 6
One Vote Wonders
Silence
2 1 4
Sully
3 1 3
Patriots Day
4 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Mixing AdamsEllwoodHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhippYamato Votes Total
1 La La Land
1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 48
2 Arrival
4 3 1 3 2 2 2 4 8 27
3 Hacksaw Ridge
2 4 4 2 4 3 4 3 2 9 26
4 Rogue One
3 5 3 4 2 3 5 5 3 9 21
5 The Jungle Book
1 5 4 5 4 9
Deepwater Horizon
5 3 5 3 5
Silence
5 2 2 5
Deadpool
5 4 2 3
Sully
5 4 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Patriots Day
3 1 3

5 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: Last Guesses Before Nominations”

  1. A few things you guys might want to address:

    – “Arrival” is no longer eligible for original score. Disqualified by the Academy’s music branch.

    http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscars-academy-disqualifies-arrival-manchester-by-the-sea-silence-1201941479/

    – Only two songs from “Moana” were submitted for consideration: “How Far I’ll Go” and “We Know the Way.”

    http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscars-91-tunes-eligible-for-best-original-song-1201941137/

    – “Jackie” is no longer eligible for makeup.

    http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscars-academy-announces-7-makeup-and-hairstyling-finalists-1201946899/

  2. Bradley Laing says:

    —I am hoping for the “one vote wonders” of “The Ivory Game” and “Fire at Sea” to be part of the five nominees for Best Documentary Feature.

  3. Daniella Isaacs says:

    I’m still betting on “Hidden Figures” exceeding expectations. It was all the buzz as “the film America loves” right as the Academy was voting.

  4. Chris L. says:

    On reflection, the most puzzling development in this whole season is that a sizable number of people consider Aaron Taylor-Johnson the standout in his film over Michael Shannon. Did Shannon piss off the wrong people with some of his political barbs?

    Joel Edgerton being the last best hope for Loving is also a bit strange. Not that he wasn’t good, but so much care and craft went into that film across the board.

  5. David Poland says:

    Yeah… I was winging it after a very painful process of loading the pages that week. Dumb. But who really cares? Completely fair to bring it up. Onward.

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