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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Still Splittin’ Klady

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Split becomes a monster for Universal, likely to hold off the family film, A Dog’s Purpose, also from a happy Universal, scoring early in 2017 with 2 non-franchise films, reminding the industry that IP is not the only way. Resident Evil 6 doesn’t care much about the soft US opening. Their grosses have been 80% international the last 2 films, both over $195 million. La La Land and Hidden Figures both pass $100m domestic this weekend, buoyed by Oscar noms. Even with a nice expansion bump, Team La may be a little disappointed that the bump isn’t bigger. They’ll live. And the weeekend bump may well be bigger than the Friday. Gold fools.

11 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Still Splittin’ Klady”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Okay, anyone who thinks “Hidden Figures” would do THIS, is a liar :p.

    The best comp on LA LA LAND continues to be JUNO (the high water mark for non-Miramax dependents). It’ll finish this weekend about $5 million ahead on a very similar trajectory (albeit with somewhat varrying theater counts). Does that mean SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, the top-grossing Best Picture winner since 2003, is now the target, as JUNO finished with $143 million? Or does the freshness of Diablo Cody’s 2007 teen pregnancy flick have less of a ceiling than LA LA?

  2. David Poland says:

    I’m pretty sure you will find tweets from me months again saying that Hidden Figures was a mid-100s movie. No lie.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Wow, I’ll take your word. Phenomenal call. I definitely didn’t see this potentially getting into all-time territory for historical dramas/African American movies.

  4. Bulldog68 says:

    It’ll be interesting to see if the two space flicks with opposing critical reception, both Arrival and Passengers can both sputter over $100m.

  5. Geoff says:

    “The best comp on LA LA LAND continues to be JUNO (the high water mark for non-Miramax dependents). It’ll finish this weekend about $5 million ahead on a very similar trajectory (albeit with somewhat varrying theater counts). Does that mean SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, the top-grossing Best Picture winner since 2003, is now the target, as JUNO finished with $143 million? Or does the freshness of Diablo Cody’s 2007 teen pregnancy flick have less of a ceiling than LA LA?”

    I think Juno is a very strong comparison but Juno had a relatively week December and January of competition to counter compared to La La Land – $150 million domestic is still a possibility but WOW, did that backlash start early! I can’t remember another time when the backlash for a big-time Oscar contender kicked in BEFORE the nominations were already announced. Otherwise, this was probably headed to closer to $200 million…just strange but that SNL skit made it fairly obvious.

    “Wow, I’ll take your word. Phenomenal call. I definitely didn’t see this potentially getting into all-time territory for historical dramas/African American movies.”

    And ET, gotta wonder if Hidden Figures was able to capitalize on VERY strong timing – coming out just around the time of the run-up to the Women’s March and Trump Inauguration. You look at THAT way and the film hits all of the sweet-spots: PG-rated feelgood drama featuring African American WOMEN triumphing? Yeah both of my daughters were as excited to see this as Rogue One OR La La Land.

    Oh and sorry Et but short of a strong re-release (which I DON’T think Disney is going to do since they want to start ramping up the campaign for Episode VIII soon), I am not seeing Rogue One catching The Dark Knight domestically.

    And hey kudos for Disney for having such a record-setting 2016 but I can’t think of two absurdly HIGHER grossing films in recent memory (domestically and NOT adjusted for inflation) that are going to be LESS remembered a year after release than Finding Dory and Rogue One.

  6. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s a good point on HIDDEN FIGURES. And I would like to see LA LA top LES MIZ (148) as the top musical since CHICAGO and top DIVERGENT (150) as Lionsgate’s biggest non-TWILIGHT/HUNGER GAMES movie, but not sure about that yet.

    On ROGUE/TDK, it’s still easily outpacing Batman. It’ll finish the weekend in 8th place (2,050 theatres) at $520 million on $5.3 million. TDK crossed $520 as part of a 9th place (1,900 theatres) $2.9 million weekend. Regardless, even if ROGUE collapses, it’s well surpassed domestic expectations for a “forgettable film” if that’s the case. Though as someone who believes JW is one of the worst blockbusters of the decade, I disagree. Worldwide, there’s plenty more…..Transformers 3/4, MINIONS, FURIOUS 7 (sorry Paul Walker).

  7. Christian says:

    Those early “Salesman” numbers look good to me, although I’m not sure what the comps for “good” are when you’re only on three screens. I expect interest has only spiked in the last 24 hours as the Farhadi news has gotten out. I was very mixed on that film but wouldn’t mind it getting more exposure.

    I’m not sure anyone’s saying “Hidden Figures” is succeeding only *because of* the current political situation, but I’m a conservative religious guy (not a Trump voter, FWIW) and my wife, whose beliefs are similar, and kids all loved “Hidden Figures,” which we’ve watched more than once. It’s one of the best inspirational dramas since … well, since “The Blind Side.” (That reference oughta bring out the arrows, but there you have it.)

  8. Sideshow Bill says:

    I found SPLIT to be a total delight. I’m not sure the entire packed audience did. There seemed to be some derisive laughter, even though there were moments that were obviously meant to be funny. MacAvoy pulled it off, and I didn’t think he could. It wasn’t the self-contained cat & mouse movie they’re selling but that’s what made it for me. Anya Taylor-Joy was fine. I hope she gets some roles now to show a different side.

    As for the “twist”…..I loved it. I laughed out loud. To say anymore would spoil it but I approve and am in favor of it.

    Nice time out at the movies to escape the miserable news events. I needed it.

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    Christian, that’s a good point about kids loving Hidden Figures a lot. My daughters (14 and 17) saw it with some friends and they want to go back. They adored it. Perhaps that a “quadrant” (I hate that word in this regard…) it’s really working for.

  10. Movieman says:

    Does Peggy Lipton look fantastic or what in “A Dog’s Purpose”?
    Definitely looks way younger than her 70 (!) years. In fact, Dennis Quaid–who’s nearly a decade her junior–looks substantially older.
    Wish she’d been a lot more visible post-“The Mod Squad.”

  11. Geoff says:

    No doubt Hidden Figures plays to both sides of the aisle – apparently Ted Cruz has been tweeting about it. And as a father to a 9 year old and 12 year old girl, it’s nice to have actually some big-time Oscar contenders for ONCE that are suitable for children – except for one F-bomb, La La Land is actually pretty family-friendly though some of the storyline was a BIT above my 9 year old’s head. And I still haven’t seen Hidden Figures yet but my oldest loved it and apparently it’s a pure PG which is nice.

    Not saying that ALL or even MOST films need to cater to that audience but it’s nice to see that not EVERY Oscar contender has to be a hard R, very pretentious or VERY depressing. 😉

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