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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by Expansion Klady

Friday Estimates 2017-01-14 at 9.00.11 AM copy

Have to run this morning, but Hidden Figures has a good Friday-to-opening-Friday hold. The expansion helped. But I would expect the 3-day drop to end up in the teens. Bye Bye Man is on the old Screen Gems measure… $20m is a big win… $14.8 million is okay, but no champagne. CBS can’t be thrilled with the Patriots Day expansion, even with a 10,000% jump. It’s still looking at less than $25m cume at the end of the holiday 4-day. Timing is brutally hard given the amount of politics and American discussion every day in people’s lives since the election. La La Land has a decent expansion… this one including IMAX screens. Expectations are so high for this one that perspective on box office is a little skewed too. It’s not about winning or losing… it’s about how big the win will be. Sleepless and Monster Trucks are similar, except one will lose $100 million and the other won’t.

26 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Expansion Klady”

  1. Movieman says:

    A $2.9 million opening day for “Sleepless” feels like a huge win considering what a steaming pile of dung it is.
    The damn thing has two speeds: dully generic and ludicrously incompetent.
    Can’t believe it’s based on a (not too old) French movie that I actually liked.
    I guess some things just get lost in translation.
    There are so many wonderful movies in wide release right now that it’s mind-boggling anyone would actually pay to see “Sleepless.”
    Or “Monster Trucks,” Underworld 5″ and “Bye, Bye Man” for that matter.

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    There are a lot great movies playing now and I haven’t seen all of them, but Sleepless appeals to be because it has a superb supporting cast and looks like mindless January fun. There’s nothing wrong with that. I’d rather see Sleepless than Silence but hey different strokes. Didn’t think Bye Bye Man would beat Patriot’s Day. That’s back-to-back underperforming Berg/Wahlberg docbusters.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Did anyone predict HIDDEN FIGURES would do $90 million+???? We talk about how nothing has been “world-beating” in terms of exceeding expectations, but this certainly feels like one.

    Now that $100 million is in the bag for LA LA LAND as it outmuscles the paces set by DREAMGIRLS and BLACK SWAN, goalposts keep shifting. At this point, topping FAHRENHEIT 9/11 to become Lionsgate’s biggest non-YA release, and toppling ENCHANTED to become the top original musical of all-time (i.e. non-Broadway adaptation) seem like good targets.

    MOONLIGHT’s re-expansion will take it past ROOM to become A24’s #3 grosser this weekend, which is likely where it will stay barring what at this point would be a Best Picture shocker. It’ll eventually overtake BIRTH OF A NATION and FRUITVALE STATION among recent black indies though.

  4. Stella's Boy says:

    Hidden Figures does feel that way. Maybe it’s just me but until a month or so ago it wasn’t on my radar at all. I had a vague notion of its existence but that’s about it. As much as I’m not a fan, La La Land’s box office is mighty impressive. It’s a crowd pleaser. Good for Moonlight and A24 (can’t say enough about what an amazing 2016 they had). Deserves every penny. Easily my favorite movie of 2016.

  5. EtGuild2 says:

    If nothing else, I’m thrilled for Gosling. It’s been a bizarre few years for him, as I felt like he had been boxed in by his looks and memes (Hey Girl !) into never crossing into the mainstream, especially with guys, despite most of his best work coming in gritty roles (Drive, The Believer and Half Nelson). If anything, I’ve been worried BLADE RUNNER 2049 will bomb due to his lack of mainstream appeal and a mis-reading of the original’s popularity.

    It’s been amazing having conversations with guy friends who think he’s some kind of romantic comedy mainstay, but who are appreciative/want-see on LA LA LAND despite it being a musical. Truly weird…many are vaguely aware of DRIVE, but have little to no knowledge of his other work. I will never understand how THE BELIEVER didn’t tap into the early 00s Edward Norton cult audience following. Too cerebral perhaps.

  6. Stella's Boy says:

    I love Gosling. Stone too. La La Land is a movie whose success I can get behind even if I think it’s overrated and not nearly as good as Moonlight. I really liked all of the music in the film. I’m still humming it some 10 days after seeing it. And I have no aversion to a good romance. I just don’t think the one in La La Land is particularly good or interesting.

  7. Movieman says:

    SB- I was mildly looking forward to “Sleepless,” too, largely because of the cast: Scoot McNairy can do no wrong in my book. (The marketing did nothing to excite me.) In retrospect, the laughably boring title should have been a giveaway.
    “Hidden Figures” is one of those out-of-left-field surprises that takes everyone by surprise. I pegged it as a “Help”-style sleeper when I saw it in late November and feel gratified/vindicated by its success. It’s the very definition of a “feel-great” movie.
    Mildly surprised that “Patriots Day” isn’t opening bigger in wide release.
    It’s a strong movie, maybe even Berg’s personal best as director (although I do love “Friday Night Lights”). But “United 93″–best comparison although it’s considerably more audience-friendly and conventionally “entertaining”–didn’t do that great either.

  8. EtGuild2 says:

    I was stunned by how entertained I was by PATRIOTS DAY. It’s definitely near Berg’s best, a slight improvement on DEEPWATER, which I liked as well. I do understand the controversy to an extent, as I felt guilty for how invested I was in the Tsarnaev chase.

  9. Sideshow Bill says:

    I could be wrong but David was talking up Hidden Figures for a while now. A few months, maybe? I only became aware of it through his posts. My daughters are dying to see and we’ll probably go next week.

  10. Movieman says:

    Ethan- I loved the wonky first half of “Deepwater,” but found the disaster movie second half a bore.
    I know it isn’t p.c. in certain quarters, but I really liked “Lone Survivor,” too. Thought Taylor Kitsch deserved a Best Supporting Actor nod.

  11. dinovelvet says:

    Jesus…was gonna go to Patriots Day, but that can wait, guess I’d better hurry up and catch Live by night this week.

  12. chris says:

    The minute “Hidden Figures” started screening (mid-November), pretty much everyone who saw it knew it was a crowdpleaser.

  13. Stella's Boy says:

    I feel the same way about Patriot’s Day and Deepwater Horizon and Sully. They are such recent events and the media blanketed them with 24/7 coverage for what felt like months. It’s interesting that Sully found an audience but the Berg/Wahlberg movies didn’t. Tom Hanks the X-factor?

    Sleepless indeed did not have great marketing. Sometimes though if you really like a cast that’s all that matters. When I see names like Scoot McNairy and David Harbour and Dermot Mulroney, in an R-rated B movie, I’m in.

  14. dinovelvet says:

    David Harbour is in Sleepless? They should have BLASTED this information across all the TV ads. Then again I didn’t even know Sleepless existed until about five days ago. Isn’t he a newly minted dork icon thanks to Stranger Things? If he’s half as awesome as he was in Equalizer/A Walk among the tombstones, then I’m all in.

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    I feel the same way about DEEPWATER, movieman.

    I’m sure that Hanks helps, as does Eastwood (no one knows what a Peter Berg is), but It’s always good to have a very easily explainable central figure. PATRIOTS DAY is a composite sketch (Mark Wahlberg plays 6+ real life people), which I thought worked surprisingly well. DEEPWATER is, similarly, a wide-reaching reenactment, but was slightly easier to focus given the contained nature of the event.

  16. Stella's Boy says:

    More than six? I thought I read he played a composite of two real Boston cops. That’s crazy. Those are good points. I don’t know if it matters but no one dies in Sully. It’s a clear-cut story of a lone hero saving lives, which is what you allude to. Also, I’m curious, many reviews I’ve read claim Patriot’s Day is an endorsement of authoritarianism. What do you think?

  17. Pete B. says:

    Whenever we stood in line to buy movie tickets, if there was an elderly couple waiting, 9 times out of 10 they were there to see Sully. It became a running joke with my wife.

  18. chris says:

    Wait. Paramount spent $125 million on “Monster Trucks” (which seems like a $10 million cheapie)?

  19. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s interesting Stella. That seems off-kilter to me…Berg even shows pushback on Deval Patrick’s decision to shut down the city. If anything it’s a nice illustration, in the vein of ZD30, of the complex teamwork and the deceptive mundanity of crisis operations. Who would be the authoritarian figure here…Patrick? Menino or the police chief?

    One of the best moments in the movie is Kevin Bacon’s focus on not leaking the pictures of the brothers, and his explosive reaction when they are.

    Re: MONSTER TRUCKS…yeah Paramount announced a 9-figure writedown last September.

  20. Geoff says:

    “If nothing else, I’m thrilled for Gosling. It’s been a bizarre few years for him, as I felt like he had been boxed in by his looks and memes (Hey Girl !) into never crossing into the mainstream, especially with guys, despite most of his best work coming in gritty roles (Drive, The Believer and Half Nelson). If anything, I’ve been worried BLADE RUNNER 2049 will bomb due to his lack of mainstream appeal and a mis-reading of the original’s popularity.

    It’s been amazing having conversations with guy friends who think he’s some kind of romantic comedy mainstay, but who are appreciative/want-see on LA LA LAND despite it being a musical. Truly weird…many are vaguely aware of DRIVE, but have little to no knowledge of his other work. I will never understand how THE BELIEVER didn’t tap into the early 00s Edward Norton cult audience following. Too cerebral perhaps.”

    Interesting observations on Gosling but that’s what happens when you spend too much time collaborating with Nicholas Winding Refn. 😉 Even though The Nice Guys pretty much bombed at the box office, it got him a lot of goodwill back earlier this year and let’s face it – he ALWAYS had a few romantic leads left in him considering how The Notebook was his mainstream break-out (even got him an MTV award for Best Kiss) and Crazy Stupid Love was only five years ago.

    Yeah I saw The Believer back in the day – it was a good movie but it was NOT close to being the gut-puncher that Norton delivered with American History X. And that’s a knock on the movie nor Gosling’s performance but American History X was just a CAREER performance for Norton – still ridiculous that he lost the Oscar to Roberto Benigni that year. The Believer was a much subtler movie and it’s been a while since I saw it but from what I remember, there is a late twist that lessens the impact of that movie.

    Not really sure where all of the shock is over Hidden Figures breaking out – hasn’t there been a pretty recent precedent for feel-good historical dramas performing on this level?? The Help, The Imitation Game, The Butler…..Selma probably would have grossed more if Paramount didn’t wait until the last possible minute to launch it, which apparently is a mistake they repeated this year with Silence. Fox was very much on point with the marketing for this film – they have had charming music video spots running for it since November.

  21. Movieman says:

    I don’t think “Silence” could have ever gotten anywhere near the $50-million “Selma” did, Geoff. But you’re right about Paramount being late out of the gate, although I think Scorsese bears some of the blame: he was apparently tinkering w/ the film until late November.
    Whoever described it as “Terrence Malick directing ‘Apocalypse Now'” was wrong. It’s closer to Straub/Huillet’s “Apocalypse Now.”
    The Malick version would have been, frame-by-frame, unstintingly gorgeous rather than harshly austere. There would have also been a lot more voiceover than dialogue. It’s a resolutely, even stubbornly uncommercial movie–not that Malick’s version would have been any more multiplex-friendly–and I really admire Scorsese for that.
    I do wish that the entire movie had been subtitled, though: had a hard time deciphering a lot of the heavily accented English dialogue delivered by most of the Japanese cast. (Guess I’ll be using the subtitle option when I buy the Blu-Ray.)

  22. EtGuild2 says:

    Not comparing BELIEVER directly to Norton’s early 00s work…but there was a certain market there for awhile, which encompasses BOONDOCK SAINTS and early Guy Ritchie, that I felt it could have derived some love from. All I’ve had to do to raise interest in the movie over the years is say ” Gosling as Jewish Neo Nazi.” The thing sells itself.

    RE: HIDDEN FIGURES, THE HELP is a decent comp, but that was a wildly popular book and was more marketable (shit pie!). Re: The Butler, you had Oprah selling the thing for months and the craziest cast of the decade. Both those movies also fell into the same fall timeslot. In addition,a”real life space” movie hasn’t done these numbers since APOLLO 13 I think. $50 million certainly felt in the cards, but not $100, to me at least.

  23. Stella's Boy says:

    Speaking of The Believer and American History X, Neo Nazis had a resurgence in 2016 with Green Room, Blood Father, and Imperium. I wonder if we’ll get more of them in the Trump era.

  24. Geoff says:

    Etguild, that is true about Oprah and The Butler – she sold the shit out of that movie, was EVERYWHERE to promote it as only Oprah can. But I also remember they had to change the release date a few times and reboot the marketing because of that ridiculous lawsuit about the title….so kudos to the marketing team for that movie sticking the landing despite not having an approved title until the last possible moment.

    LOL about The Boondock Saints – I have never seen it but from what I hear, the posters were up in college dorms all over the place! I heard the documentary about the director was actually more entertaining than the movie itself – was the movie that bad?? From what I remember, Boondock was just one entry in an ENDLESS stream of Pulp Fiction-clones for ten years after that film came out…..Things to Do In Denver When You’re Dead, Two Days in the Valley, most of which were shit.

    Real-life space hmmmm…I was almost tempted to say, “What about Gravity or The Martian?” but then I had to remind myself. 😉 That’s the thing though….there is actually a limited number of REAL-life space stories to tell – only a select few have even been in space so you have the latitude to tell stories that FEEL like they could have been real like Space Cowboys or Gravity. And besides that you had epics like The Right Stuff and From the Earth to the Moon which covered so much ground just between those two.

  25. EtGuild2 says:

    Good points.

    BOONDOCK SAINTS was always aggressively mediocre to me, but I get the sense it doesn’t age well. The sequel is straight up horrible.

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“I think they were focused so hard on politics that they didn’t get the act together at the end,” President Trump said. “It was a little sad. It took away from the glamour of the Oscars. It didn’t feel like a very glamorous evening. I’ve been to the Oscars. There was something very special missing, and then to end that way was sad.”
~ Trump Offers Breitbart Exclusive On His Thinking About Oscar