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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Are The Globes A National Holiday Anywhere Outside of L.A. Klady

Friday Estimates 2017-01-07 at 9.40.36 AM copy

 

Hidden Figures pops, although I suspect that longterm, there is more upside than this. The Help has almost the same number on opening Friday. Of course, here it is after 12 days in limited release (25 screens) and back with Help, they opened on a Wednesday, siphoning off some of the Must-See. Still, I can see Hidden Figures accelerating, not only on word of mouth, but on MLK weekend. And then… Oscar nominations that the media seems to be finally be accepting as likely.

Slapping myself on the back, I noted way back at the 12-minute presentation at TIFF in September that Figures and Jackie were the only two events that stood out from Venice/Telluride as award-significant in Canada. All that Figures could do to keep itself out of the Oscar race would be to stink. And it doesn’t. The star power of the three leads and Costner and a great story overcome flaws. But this is an audience film, bigly. As it’s turning out, Jackie is hanging on to a reasonable hope of being nominated while Figures is surging as one of the two really “fun” films of the Oscar season.

The other opener this week is almost as retro as Hidden Figures. Underworld hasn’t had a new entry in five years. Kate Beckinsale and her spandex skin haven’t aged a day… But the domestic audience for this franchise may have aged out. This opening will be the worst of the franchise, including the Rhona-Mitra-For-Kate moment in 2009. But here is what makes it interesting past this weekend: the international on the 2012 film, with Beckinsale’s return, was double any other in the franchise’s history, just under $100 million. So if they can duplicate or improve on that, Sony will be very happy indeed, even if the domestic is meh.

The only other real change on the board is the La La Land expansion, from 750 to 1515. I’m sure there was demand from exhibitors. I’m not sure I would have chosen this weekend. La La ain’t The Revenant, which went wide the weekend after New Year’s last year. Even American Sniper waited until MLK weekend to go wide two years ago. American Hustle and Black Swan are also bad comps because they went wide in December, riding the holiday. I would have suggested waiting until next weekend, getting the MLK and the Globes wins benefits to expand. And, of course, this expansion is not over. A $7500 per-screen is still quite nice and the movie is already in the black (considering all revenue streams), but another week of anticipation wouldn’t have killed anyone.

Drops on the rest of the chart all make sense for this weekend.

15 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Are The Globes A National Holiday Anywhere Outside of L.A. Klady”

  1. BoulderKid says:

    and A Monster Calls is dead on arrival…

  2. Stella's Boy says:

    I am mixed on La La Land. I love Gosling and Stone, and the musical numbers are great. I like the songs a lot and still hum them a couple days after seeing it. But the love story did nothing for me. I didn’t find either one of their characters interesting. It’s a pretty bland and generic romance between people I feel like I’ve seen in movies many times before. I certainly didn’t dislike it, but it’s one that didn’t live up to the hype.

  3. Movieman says:

    I’m assuming Summit didn’t want to expand “La La” on the 13th because of the three wide 2017 releases (“Sleepless,” “Bye, Bye Man” and “Monster Trucks”), two expanding ’16 releases (“Patriots Day” and “Live by Night” which, regrettably, will probably drop dead) and one quasi-“wide” (“Silence” expanding to 700+ screens) already scheduled for that date.
    Talk about your multiplex traffic jams!
    Of the five bonafide “wide” releases, only “Patriots” has a real chance of breaking out; “Bye, Bye” could do OK opening weekend teen-horror trade.
    Pretty confident that “La La” is in it for the long haul. Ditto “Hidden Figures.”
    Hard to believe the Oscars are still 7 weekends away.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    It’ll be interesting to see whether LA LA goes in a “Black Swan” direction (very slowly runs out of steam and finishes around $100 million) or a “King’s Speech” direction (pops post-Globes and sticks in the Top 8 for a month and a half with a $140 million cume).

    Yeah movieman….23 wide releases between now and February 17. Hold onto your hats.

  5. Geoff says:

    I don’t think they should have waited any longer on La La Land – buzz on it is at a fever pitch, especially with Gosling and Stone everywhere right now. It’s definitely as much of an audience picture as The Kings Speech or Chicago, so $130 to $150 million domestic looks very possible…..Of course assuming it dominates the Oscar nods as expected.

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    I wouldn’t be quite so quick to write off Live By Night. There will be a total of four NFL playoff games this weekend — and so far, I’m seeing more ads for Live By Night than for any other movie.

  7. Arisp says:

    What on earth is Hidden Figures?

  8. TrackerBacker says:

    Joe, that’s not surprising regarding LBN. It’s a WB movie, and they will spend like hell on everything. Doesn’t mean it’s going to open.

  9. Joe Leydon says:

    TrackerBacker: Perhaps. On the other hand, it strikes me that they are reaching out to their target demographic.

  10. Movieman says:

    Isn’t “Patriots Day” pretty much the same demographic as “Live By Night,” Joe?
    If so, the Berg/Wahlberg movie clearly has the edge over Affleck & Co. in attracting males to theaters next weekend.
    WB should have picked another date (late February perhaps?) and never risked a December awards bow which pretty much backfired.

  11. AdamL says:

    Serious question: when did people start using the word bigly? And when can they stop?

  12. TrackerBacker says:

    Joe: I wouldn’t read too much into it. In addition to this being par for the course for them, they basically have to spend to keep up their relationship with Affleck (that’s the only reason they did that ridiculous “qualifying run” in December).

    As Movieman noted, their core audience is going to get sucked away by PD, anyway.

  13. David Poland says:

    I was using it ironically, AdamL

  14. Ray Pride says:

    Live By Night was originally an October 2017 release.

  15. AdamL says:

    @David. I hoped you were. Good to hear it!

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