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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Weekend Estimates by Klady One

Weekend Estimates 2016-12-18 at 11.16.15 AM

Is there any more to say?

The most interesting stat of the day, to me, is the report that La La Land audience is that more than half the audience this weekend was under 30. I am not a great truster of exit polling for movies, but if this is true, it bodes really well for the commercial upside of this film. It tells us that the film will play nationally above and beyond Oscar-motivated audiences. The Oscar-only version of La La is a $40 million grosser. This version could be well over $100m domestic. And I bet the international is shockingly strong, both in Europe and Asia.

There really is no comp that directly matches with the release strategy on La La. The closest I can see is Chicago. It went from a 77 screen opening to 304 screens. La La went 5 to 200. Of course, Lionsgate took its musical out 16 days earlier too. So it feels kinda like a slower, earlier expansion with a similar target ($171 million domestic).

Silver Linings Playbook tried a similar trajectory (16 to 357) in 2012, though with a November launch… and a disappointing expansion that let to treading water until awards legitimacy could come.

I would guess that La La can pile up another $20 million by end of business, January 2, right around $25 million total domestic. It could be more if they add more screens in more markets. I don’t know their precise plan. The big question is how aggressive they will be in the 3 weeks between this holiday and the Oscar nominations announcements on the 24th of January. I don’t think The Globes will help a ton because there is no facility for celebrating what is so great about this film, aside from an Emma Stone speech. I would be looking to fill that window with unique stunts… like live performances of songs from the film on the late night talk show circuit that don’t try to replicate the film, but riff on the spirit.

Anyway…

No change on the Rogue One front. Nor on Collateral Beauty, Will Smith’s worst opening on more than 100 screens (and worse, really, that either of those 2 openings).

Arrival had its worst hold yet (after amazing weekly holds), so that’s a little unhappy for them.

Fences had a nice opening on 4. Nice, but not overwhelming.

Lion expanded a little, did okay. The Orchard had a nice number for Neruda.

A lot of awards chatter movies under $1000 per for the weekend. That isn’t great.

Here is a little chart of the exclusive openings for awards wannabes this year and the results.

Per Screens Oscar Opens as of 2016-12-18 at 1.24.49 PM copy

29 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Klady One”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Suddenly, BEASTS passing STRANGE domestically looks far from a sure thing, though it doesn’t matter given BEASTS will get past $750 million worldwide.

    Paramount is now, bafflingly, going forward with a FENCES Christmas Day release despite just “good” numbers, and despite changing the release strategy 3 time in 3 weeks.

  2. Sideshow Bill says:

    Are they really going to make 4 more Fantastic Beasts movies now?? And for that matter if Avatar 2 performs similarly will he still make all 2 sequels (or however many. I lose count).

  3. Movieman says:

    Loved “Neruda:” it’s definitely the best of Pablo Larrain’s Chilean movies.
    Between it and “Jackie,” Larrain is a serious contender for “director of the year” laurels. (Wasn’t as enthused about “The Club.”)
    And Gael Garcia Bernal’s performance deserves to be in the awards chatter. It belongs in the Bernal pantheon w/ “Y Tu Mama,” “Bad Eduction” and “Motorcycle Diaries.”
    He reminded me a lot of Alain Delon in Joseph Losey’s “The Assassination of Trotsky.”
    Does anyone know whether Larrain has referenced the Losey film as a creative influence on “Neruda”?

  4. Amblinman says:

    Rogue was meh. It was well made, but I enjoyed TFA more. I’m a sucker for the Jedi mythology. Jones didn’t register for me at all, I thought she was underwritten. Also a waste of Madds. I also very much dislike prequels so I’m biased. Not looking forward to Young Han Solo even a little.

  5. JS Partisan says:

    Man, I have a feeling her character, was basically destroyed in reshoots. They paid her 7 fucking figures, then decided against pushing her, which is another reason why Rogue One is just so shit.

  6. Geoff says:

    I’m guessing what could make Young Han Solo interesting is the meta take that Lord and Miller might bring to it.

    I’m not sure which one I liked better: TFA or Rogue – they both have too much fan service, TFA has much better pacing but Rogue seems to be better crafted from a visual standpoint. I was actually not a fan of the villains in TFA – Domnhall Gleason was just chewing scenery and I know I’m in the minority on this one but I found Adam Driver to be only marginally better than Hayden Christiansen. I REALLY dug Ben Mendelsen in Rogue – he played a nicely smarmly middle manager type just trying to get some recognition and I would have loved to see him pop up in future episodes.

    The Arrival drop is a bit disappointing but not really unexpected – ALL of the big November releases (Strange, Beasts, Hacksaw, Trolls) apparently lost screens and dropped more than 50% this weekend. I’m guessing Arrival still has enough gas in the tank to clear $100 million domestic which would be a nice victory.

    I’m curious because I can’t quite get a reading from the coverage so far but did Rogue One actually under-perform overseas?? Apparently in most comparable markets it did only HALF of what TFA did which is REALLY surprising with that cast – I figured this would do better overseas.

  7. JS Partisan says:

    Geoff, it’s the first story film, so we don’t know? That seems to be the answer right now.

    Here’s hoping, that the Han movie is fucking fun. I can see Rogue One getting kneecapped, from it’s material alone, but you know Gen Xers can’t have anything be for kids.

    Finally, Daisy Ridley and John Boyega, really take TFA, to another level. While Kylo, is just a fucking weirdly dynamic villain.

  8. Doug R says:

    I felt kinda the opposite. TFA felt like a Mary Sue remake with more planets blown up. But that’s JJ Abrams for ya.
    Rogue One felt like an actual story, filled in some Star Wars plot holes and the cast wasn’t movie pretty. There were real stakes and they knew the art of war.
    Felt a bit like the fight at the end of Return of the Jedi, where everyone does their part. Blaze of Glory, Baby!

  9. JS Partisan says:

    Yeah. Rey is either a SKYWALKER, or the FUCKING AVATAR! I am sorry, that a capable woman hurts you so much [Krennic eye roll].

    Also, no one watches Star Wars, for blazes of glory. All this movie demonstrates, is that the Rebels are the second baddest bunch of mofos in the galaxy. Why? They have lightsabers, and lightsabers win.

    Bill, they are making four more, because they really want to tell a DUMBLEDORE story.

  10. Amblinman says:

    Watching Prime Vader in Rogue actually makes Ren in TFA even more interesting for me. After watching Vader in action, Of course he doesn’t feel deep down he can live up to that figure. So both the hero worship and self-doubt/loathing resonate more. Makes him more unstable and hopefully unpredictable. Great character, imho.

    Of course Mendalson was great, but *he’s* great. His character was the stereotypical middle manager weasel type. I find Ren much more fascinating.

    @JS, I’ll take your word for it on Jones in Rogue. I found her almost incidental to anything happening. I pretty much lost the reasoning behind the alliance even needing her after a certain point.

    And listen: Imperial Walkers are visually cool as shit but functionally stupid as fuck. And I don’t understand why Stormtroopers even wear armor. It doesn’t seem to help even a little.

  11. Pete B. says:

    Holy crap! Did they really pay Felicity Jones 7 figures? Why so much?

  12. EtGuild2 says:

    The international numbers are definitely a bit lower than expected. On the other hand, they’re not so low as to prevent Disney from definitely claiming the Worldwide Box Office’s Top 5 this year. Domestically, it looks like they’ll finish with 7 of the top 11 or 12 grossers (I think MOANA will edge out BEASTS and I don’t think BEASTS will catch STRANGE at this point).

    I’m still thinking we’ll get a Disney reprieve in 2017, with a mere 3 or 4 of the Top 10 coming from the Mouse House. Being brave and throwing this out there…

    1. Star Wars
    2. Guardians 2
    3. Despicable Me 3
    4. Furious 8
    5. Beauty and the Beast
    6. Lego Batman
    7. Spiderman: Homecoming
    8. Justice League
    9. Coco
    10. Apes 3

    Fully expect “Transformers 5″ and probably “Pirates 5″ to replace either the bottom 2 or Lego in the worldwide top 10, and DESPICABLE ME to be a firm #2.

  13. EtGuild2 says:

    One LA LA LAND comp is BIRDMAN, which expanded to 230 theatres in its 3rd weekend, 460 in its 4th and 850 in its 5th which seems to be a good bet here. LA LA crushed the 200 theater comp and is running ahead of the 3-week total. BIRDMAN finished with $42 million, so I’d put $75 million as a good target so far.

    That seems a bit conservative, but it would place it near Gosling’s career-high.

  14. JS Partisan says:

    Pete, they were obviously, going to do something more with Jyn Erso, then the reshoots happened. Now, it’s like Man states above. She’s just sort of there.

  15. Sideshow Bill says:

    “And listen: Imperial Walkers are visually cool as shit but functionally stupid as fuck. And I don’t understand why Stormtroopers even wear armor. It doesn’t seem to help even a little.”

    Right on. The Walkers make zero sense. Plus they are easy to take down. The one Luke trips up in Empire gets blown up with a few shots from a snow speeder.

    But man, they look cool.

    JS, I forgot about the Dumbledore story. So I guess those will go. I wish the Avatar movies weren’t, though. But I complain about that all the time.

  16. Tuck Pendelton says:

    EtGuild –

    Good list, but Beauty and the Beast will be #2 could even compete for #1.

    That one will be massive.

  17. EtGuild2 says:

    I could see it making it to #6. But $600? That’s what it would take to beat Episode 8….that would certainly upend the Hollywood order, whether for more female centric tentpoles in general, or an avalanche of frilly dresses remains to be seen.

    Btw, looks like the irrational ROGUE ONE paranoia from other studios extended to box office estimates. ARRIVAL had a standard -47% hold, while the MOANA decline was only -31% vs -37%, the furthest percentage miss by a movie with a $10 million+ weekend I’ve seen in years.

  18. Geoff says:

    Cool list EtGuild, yeah Star Wars Episode VIII is pretty much assured top domestic gross of the year but I’m not sure about the rest – here would be EARLY predictions for top 10 domestic for next year:

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII $850 million
    2. Justice League $380 million
    3. Despicable Me 3 $340 million
    4. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $330 million
    5. F8te of the Furious $310 million
    6. Wonder Woman $285 million
    7. Beauty & the Beast $270 million
    8. Baywatch $240 million
    9. Thor Rangnarok $230 million
    10. The Lego Batman Movie $220 million

    Even though I believe it’s going to be R-rated, just a hunch about Baywatch pulling Hangover-like numbers since it has the perfect summer setting – THIS is what Paramount has always done best: launching BIG screen TV! And Thor and Justice League are only opening a couple of weeks apart so they could cannabalize each other a bit.

  19. Bulldog68 says:

    I just don’t think there is any way that Beauty & the Beast fails to soar past $300m. Just look at the numbers for Jungle Book, and B&tB is much more beloved.

  20. EtGuild2 says:

    You’re brave for putting up numbers! Haha…I assume you think SPIDERMAN will bomb? I’m not totally against the idea of that happening.

  21. JS Partisan says:

    We finally get an age appropriate, MCU Spidey, and you want it to bomb? Come on, Ethan. Come on. Spidey should be about an 800 million picture. Unless, it’s some next level shit, then it’s a billion dollar film. Here’s hoping it succeeds, so Fox won’t have second thoughts, about letting Marvel Studios fix the X-men for them.

  22. Geoff says:

    “You’re brave for putting up numbers! Haha…I assume you think SPIDERMAN will bomb? I’m not totally against the idea of that happening.”

    LOL it’s just how my mind works – I find it difficult to rank things without numbers to back that up.

    I’m not expecting nor predicting that Spiderman Homecoming will bomb either – it could very well be an $800 million picture worldwide but I’m “guessing” that it will just clear $200 domestic…who knows?? Just that for a THIRD re-boot, it has virtually no breathing room: it’s got Transformers 5 and Despicable Me 3 the two weeks leading up to it and War of the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk the two weeks afterwards….hell now looking at my rankings, I’m surprised that three of THOSE films wouldn’t challenge $200 million domestic. At the very least, heavy emphasis on Downey in the marketing overseas could help it triple its domestic gross so at the very least, Sony has that as an insurance policy.

    And come on JS enough with the “age appropriate” hogwash….a big reason Tobey Maguire was cast was because at 27, he could EASILY pass for 16! 😉 Even all of these years later, dude STILL looks like he’s in his ’20’s. If Sony/Marvel now suddenly wants to re-frame this is as a Harry Potter-like coming of age saga that takes us through Peter Parker’s burgeoning high school year, I say have it at hoss. But Sony has bungled SEEMINGLY easy-to-sell huge concept films the past four summers running: White House Down, The Amazing Spiderman 2, Pixels, and Ghostbusters. So I wouldn’t count on anything….

    Beauty & the Beast is a very tricky one – there’s a reason that Disney is showing very little footage from it so far and that’s because actually VISUALIZING the best parts of that story/musical in “live action” could come off as very awkward. Belle looks stiff, the Beast looks like a weirdly handsome goat, and the talking kitchenware seem VERY off – the music is a big selling point but they clearly can’t put out slam-bang EXCITING trailers for this like they did for The Jungle Book a year ago….that movie looked FUN, this looks more weird so far. That said, $270 million domestic would still put it above all Disney live action remakes besides Alice and Jungle Book….still coming out in the middle of what looks like a VERY competitive March.

  23. Sideshow Bill says:

    This is all well and good, but on a totally different subject I could not be more thrilled that Wes Anderson is doing another stop-motion animated film. I love Fantastic Mr. Fox with all my heart. It was a wonderful experience for me and my daughters. I can’t wait until Isle Of Dogs is released. Gonna be a long wait.

  24. Dr Wally Rises says:

    Thanks for the list, but Wonder Woman reaching $285 million domestic? No, just no. Props for excluding Pirates and Transformers 5 though, those series have long since passed the ‘enough already’ point. And if it’s REALLY good then Logan could break the $200 million X Men glass ceiling and approach Days of Future Past and maybe even Deadpool numbers.

  25. Hallick says:

    Logan is ground zero for stories that have passed the ‘enough already’ point.

  26. Geoff says:

    “Thanks for the list, but Wonder Woman reaching $285 million domestic? No, just no.”

    I don’t see how that’s unreachable considering that Man of Steel and Suicide Squad both exceeded that amount and with shit reviews no less.

  27. Movieman says:

    With her accent and high cheek bones, Gal Gadot resembles a #SHITLER mail order bride more than Wonder Woman.
    Unimpressed.
    On the other hand, Tom Holland looks flat-out adorable as a young Spidey.
    He single-handedly made me psyched for a reboot I formerly had zero interest in.
    P.S.= Why does “Logan” look more like Mad Max than Marvel? Not that that’s necessarily a bad thing, but does George Miller get an on-screen credit (or, better yet, a big fat check?). Flat-out weird.

  28. Geoff says:

    Not sure if I’m understanding your Gal Gadot comparison Movieman, but she certainly looks and sounds the part – not every Wonder Woman has to be Lynda Carter, nothing wrong with adding something a little exotic to the character.

    Logan looks super-cool from that trailer but I would be much more excited if Mangold wasn’t directing this time – if they were going full-on R-rated, I would have been more jazzed if they were able to convince Aronovsky to come on board.

  29. JS Partisan says:

    Logan, is R-rated, Geoff. Also, go back and read, about previous Spider-men casting. People liked Tobey, at the time, so they let it go. The day they cast Garfield. People, all over the net, were going on about his age. The fact, that we have a Spider-man, that grows up, and doesn’t just grow OLD, is a good god damn thing.

    Movie, comparing a former member of the Israeli Military, as some hitler mail order bride, is fucking racist as shit. The fact, that you didn’t delete it immediately, is fucking atrocious. Come on, man. Come on

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