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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Is A Star Wars Movie Opening Klady

Screen Shot 2016-12-17 at 8.57.07 AM………………………

Star Warrrrs, fabulous Star Waaarrrrrrsssss…

Reasonably good movie. Too complicated. Cameos are more functional than meaningful. I say, a still-remarkable $1.15 billion worldwide. Nothing there anyone actually needs to see twice.

Of course, if Collateral Beauty turned out to be a Star Wars movie, it too would do $800 million before anyone noticed.

Meanwhile, Collateral Beauty is stillborn and Rogue One is no excuse. It died on its own. Easily the worst Will Smith wide opening of his entire career. Rest in Pieces.

It’s hard to judge the expansions of Manchester and La La by yesterday’s numbers. Both are good. La La’s is better. The level of success will be easier to determine tomorrow (or Monday, really).

12 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Is A Star Wars Movie Opening Klady”

  1. Sideshow Bill says:

    There was a day when a $67 million dollar difference between the #1 film and the #2 would have been awe inspiring. Now it’s kinda common place. I don’t have figures for these types of openings but I wonder what the record is for grosses between 1 & 2.

  2. Geoff says:

    Hey props to Disney/Lucasfilm for marketing the shit out of this film and it is a pretty good film – $500 million domestic is almost assured considering that even mid-December blockbusters with “mixed” receptions like Tron Legacy and King Kong had multipliers between 3.5x and 4x opening weekend.

    There will probably be some talk about a “drop-off” but the most apt comparison is probably how Iron Man 3 performed just a year after The Avengers exploded.

    Next year Episode VIII is almost assured of Avatar-like numbers then who knows?

    Young Han Solo in May 2018 will likely be the first REAL test of the brand: probably a HUGE opening around Memorial Day but no year-end holidays to prop up weekday box office and MUCH more overseas competition. Gotta admit that Donald Glover as Lando sounds pretty cool but I would just prefer a Young Lando movie….one can hope right? 😉

  3. Mostly Lurking says:

    There is no way the Han Solo movie doesn’t get pushed to December.

  4. EtGuild2 says:

    “There was a day when a $67 million dollar difference between the #1 film and the #2 would have been awe inspiring. Now it’s kinda common place. I don’t have figures for these types of openings but I wonder what the record is for grosses between 1 & 2.”

    THE FORCE AWAKENS broke them all last year the previous +$85 million single-day between Deathly Hallows 2 and the second grosser increased to +$115 million. The #1 vs #2 opener, previously held by AVENGERS 1 over Think Like a Manwas broken with a +$230 million difference. Ditto the overall record, now also at +$230, which was previously held by POTTER over POOH.

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    Thanks, EtGuild! The Avengers number makes $67 million look like nothing.

  6. Movieman says:

    Unlike “The Founder” which I really liked, I can see why Harvey lost faith in “Gold” as a legit awards contender.
    But as a “wintry Saturday afternoon in bed kind of movie,” it’s a decent watch.
    Edgar Ramirez is easily the best thing in it: McConaughey and Bryce Dallas Howard chewed way too much scenery for my taste.
    Bombs away at the box office next month, though. I can’t imagine it’ll do any better than Ramirez’s last Weinstein release, August’s “Hands of Stone.”

  7. JS Partisan says:

    Dave, sums up the problem with Rogue One: it’s nothing you have to see twice! DISNEY: BLEEDING FROM ESPN, AND LEAVING STAR WARS MONEY ON THE TABLE! Much like 2016, it’s something that could have been something, but is just much fucking worse.

  8. Stella's Boy says:

    That’s too bad re: Gold. I was really looking forward to the return of Stephen Gaghan.

  9. charlesmayaki says:

    @Stella’s Boy
    Gold is much better to the average movie than to movieman’s taste.

    It is actually a well-written, well-crafted movie.

    Award-worthy subjective but it’s on the same level as Syriana.

    As entertaining and as plotty.

    Could completely flop or do 50 million but anyone who sees it will be entertained.

    It’s no Sunday afternoon movie. That’s for sure.

  10. Nick Rogers says:

    Having gone trailer-free this year, I had no idea what to expect from “Gold.” But it’s much more “American Hustle” meets “Big Short” meets “Wolf of Wall Street” in spirit than I’d have thought (right down to McConaughey’s “fairydust” whistle and tubby-Bale dishevelment). I think his involvement alone would help it do better than “Hands of Stone,” but I see it topping out at $20 million tops. Solid programmatic entertainment, though, and props for turning McConaughey into a combination of Roy Munson and Dwight Yoakam, and male pattern baldness to match that of the guy who plays his pops (Craig T. Nelson).

  11. Movieman says:

    I said, “wintry Saturday afternoon in bed kind of movie,” Charles, lol.

    Enjoyed it overall, Nick, but the first half was rough going.
    It definitely took awhile to kick in for me. As stated earlier, Ramirez was definitely my favorite part of the movie.
    I think you’re right about Gaghan aiming for an “American Hustle,” “Big Short” or “Wolf of WS.” But he remains a better screenwriter than director. (Curiously, he didn’t write “Gold.)

  12. Glamourboy says:

    Dave Poland…please make a New Year’s resolution to stop starting articles with…’What more is there to say…”

    Thank you.

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“Last night’s Oscar bizarreness was not just bizarre but bizarre in a way that is typical of this entirely bizarre time. The rhythm of the yes-they-won-oh-my-God-no-they-didn’t event, with La La Land replaced by Moonlight as Best Picture, was weirdly like that of… Election Night. First, a more or less expected, if “safe,” result was on its way—though Hillary Clinton never got all the way to the stage, so to speak, the result did seem safely in hand at 7pm., according to the polling—and the expected and safe people were ready to deliver their touching but obviously polished pieces. Then the sudden confusion and visible near-panic of people running around in the backgroun, with the same slightly horrified spirit that one felt on Election Night as shocking results began emerging from exurban counties in Florida. Then, yes—can this be happening?—the revised and unexpected result.

“In this case, obviously, the result was positive to all but the poor La La Land producers, with their earnest and spouse-approved speeches already delivered. Moonlight was no Donald Trump of cinema, and obviously a popular favorite. But the rhythm of the night was disconcertingly the same, and the sheer improbability of the happenstance scarily alike. Nothing like this has remotely happened before. This wasn’t just a minor kerfuffle. This was a major malfunction. Trump cannot be President. People don’t say “Grab ’em by the pussy” and get elected President. Can’t happen. In the same way, while there have been Oscar controversies before—tie votes and rejected trophies—never before has there been an occasion when the entirely wrong movie was given the award, the speeches delivered, and then another movie put in its place. That doesn’t happen. Ever.

“And so both of these bizarre events put one in mind of a simple but arresting thesis: that we are living in the Matrix, and something has gone wrong with the controllers. This idea was, I’m told, put forward first and most forcibly by the NYU philosopher David Chalmers: what is happening lately, he says, is proof that we are living in a computer simulation and that something has recently gone haywire within it. The people or machines or aliens who are supposed to be running our lives are having some kind of breakdown. There’s a glitch, and we are in it. There may be not merely a glitch in the Matrix. There may be a Loki, a prankster, suddenly running it.”
~ Adam Gopnik

“I think they were focused so hard on politics that they didn’t get the act together at the end,” President Trump said. “It was a little sad. It took away from the glamour of the Oscars. It didn’t feel like a very glamorous evening. I’ve been to the Oscars. There was something very special missing, and then to end that way was sad.”
~ Trump Offers Breitbart Exclusive On His Thinking About Oscar