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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Labor Day Weekend Estimates

Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume
Don’t Breathe Sony 15.8 (5,170) -40% 3051 51.2
Suicide Squad WB 10.1 (3,070) -18% 3292 297.5
Pete’s Dragon BV 6.4 (1,950) -14% 3272 64.1
Kubo and the Two Strings Focus 6.4 (2,150) -18% 2985 34.3
Sausage Party Sony 5.3 (1,910) -30% 2766 88.4
The Light Between Oceans BV 4.8 (3,210) NEW 1500 4.8
Bad Moms STX/eOne 4.8 (2,070) -14% 2306 102.6
War Dogs WB 4.7 (1,660) -33% 2848 35.2
Hell or High Water CBS/VVS 4.5 (3,450) 26% 1303 14.6
Mechanic: Resurrection Lionsgate/VVS 4.2 (1,860) -44% 2258 14.3
Jason Bourne Uni 4.0 (2,120) -22% 1876 155.2
No Manches Frida Lionsgate 3.6 (10,030) NEW 362 3.6
The Secret Life of Pets Uni 3.5 (1,700) -9% 2069 358.5
Star Trek Beyond Par 2.5 (2,050) 9% 1202 154.3
Ben-Hur Par 2.2 (1,010) -52% 2167 23.7
Florence Foster Jenkins Par/eOne 2.2 (1,630) -26% 1341 23.6
Finding Dory BV 1.9 (930) 205% 2075 481.8
Morgan Fox 1.9 (950) NEW 2020 1.9
Southside With You Roadside Attractions 1.4 (1,760) -50% 813 5.1
Hands of Stone Weinstein Co. 1.3 (1,570) -28% 810 3.7
Ghostbusters Sony 1.1 (990) 95% 1091 126.3
Janatha Garage Ficus .77 (4,710) 164 1.5
Ice Age: Collision Course Fox .73 (1,050) 43% 692 62.6
Nerve Lionsgate .66 (870) 29% 761 37.6
Lights Out WB .54 (1,210) -19% 446 66.2
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $95.30
% Change (Last Year) 12%
% Change (Last Week) -15%
Also debuting/expanding
Don’t Think Twice Film Arcade .46 (2,790) 5% 165 3
Café Society Lionsgate/Mongrel .28 (1,460) -18% 190 10.4
Equity Sony Classics .20 (920) -38% 221 1.3
Nitro Rush Seville .15 (2,150) 71 0.21
Captain Fantastic Bleecker Street/eOne .14 (1,280) -31% 112 5.3
Indignation Roadside Attractions .13 (1,150) -47% 116 3.1
Naam Hai Akira Fox Intl .13 (1,870) 71 0.13
Hunt for the Wilderpeople Orchard .12 (1,430) -1% 85 4.6
A Tale of Love and Darkness Focus .12 (4,580) 3% 66 0.33
The Hollars Sony Classics .10 (4,270) 157% 23 0.15
The 9th Life of Louis Drax Lionsgate 73,300 (430) 171 0.07
White Girl FilmRise 29,900 (9,970) 3 0.03
Yoga Hosers Invincible 28,800 (360) 81 0.03
Pretham Central 18,200 (1,120) 16 0.02
Kickboxer: Vengeance RLJ Entertainment 13,800 (150) 91 0.01
Dekalog (reissue) Janus 12,500 (3,120) 4 0.01
Darra Guraya 11,300 (940) 12 0.01
Pepo Pal Senado K Torce 10,400 (1,490) 7 0.01
The Girl King Wolfe 8,200 (1,370) 6 0.01
Skiptrace Saban 7,600 (690) 11 0.01
Seasons in Quincy Icarus 5,100 (5,100) 1 0.01
Summer of 8 FilmBuff 3,800 (630) 6 0.01
Max Rose Paladin 3,300 (3,300) 1 0.01
Tunnel Well Go .17 (4,640) 36 0.17

29 Responses to “Labor Day Weekend Estimates”

  1. EtGuild2 says:

    Help me here…DON’T BREATHE is the first original hard-R horror movie to break $70 million since _______. Drawing a blank. I realize hard-R is relative, but Conjuring and Paranormal Activity are questionably R-rated.

    Any thoughts on how the studios fared this summer DP?

    I’d go:

    WB: B+
    Disney: B
    Universal: B
    Sony: C+
    Fox: D+
    Paramount: F

    WB didn’t have any monstrous successes, but had a somewhat dicey slate on paper, and everything beat or met expectations pretty much. Disney and Universal both had underwhelming summers bailed out by huge tentpoles. Sony had no big misfires, but it’s tough to get excited when your top earner is either ANGRY BIRDS or SAUSAGE PARTY. Fox and Paramount were disasters, with big Fox franchises in serious shape, and Paramount’s in catastrophic shape.

  2. TrackerBacker says:

    I’m still waiting on the explanation of the story of how STX “bought” their gross on Bad Moms…

  3. Sideshow Bill says:

    I Googled it EtGuild and IMDB has Saw 3 at $80.15 million back in 2006. I consider that hard R. Nothing else since then that I would consider hard R seems to have done so well. I was originally thinking Dawn Of the Dead in ’04 or the Hills Have Eyes remake but neither of them come close. Even if you consider inflation, I think.

    http://www.imdb.com/search/title?genres=horror&sort=boxoffice_gross_us,desc

  4. Geoff says:

    “I’d go:

    WB: B+
    Disney: B
    Universal: B
    Sony: C+
    Fox: D+
    Paramount: F”

    Etguild, I’m actually surprised you would rate Disney that low – yes they are probably going to lose money on Alice, The BFG, and even Pete’s Dragon but I think that’s somewhat mitigated by the other blockbusters. I STILL believe that ‘Civil War technically performed below expectations but $1.15 billion is still $1.15 billion….and surprisingly, no other summer release even came close. Part of that is the Zootopia and Jungle Book overseas grosses carried over well into the summer as well. I knew Finding Dory would do well but not bigger than Shrek 2 domestically-well.

    And Warners did have a pretty strong summer – Suicide Squad has already been discussed ad nasauem but was ANY ONE really predicting $300 million plus domestic for this a few months ago?? I know I wasn’t. Tarzan overperformed, Lights Out and Me Before You were both VERY profitable and yes The Nice Guys was a disappointment but they didn’t spend that much on it.

    Yes indeed Fox did have a shit summer to say the least….at the beginning, I was predicting Independence Day Resurgence to dominate, boy was I wrong about that one! They genuinely bungled X-Men as well but at least that will make profit.

    And Paramount….have they EVER had this terrible of a year?? I mean do you have to go back to before the Gulf & Western days in the ’70’s to find them floundering so much?

    Here would be my grades for the studios:

    Disney: A-
    Warner Bros: A-
    Universal: B
    Sony: B
    Fox: D
    Paramount: F

    “Help me here…DON’T BREATHE is the first original hard-R horror movie to break $70 million since _______. Drawing a blank. I realize hard-R is relative, but Conjuring and Paranormal Activity are questionably R-rated.”

    I don’t know is Don’t Breathe really hard-R? There is THAT scene towards the end that skirts the line for sure, but they never cross over into “I Spit On Your Grave” or “Hostel” territory regardless. The film gets rough but never gratuitous and this is probably a genuine stretch but…..The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Fincher’s version) was a pretty hard R and crossed $100 million domestic about five years ago. The third act KIND of plays like a hard R-rated horror movie. 😉

  5. michael bergeron says:

    I saw DON’T BREATHE and consider it less of a horror film and more of a Home Invasion Thriller

  6. Stella's Boy says:

    I’m not sure I’d call Don’t Breathe hard R. It is quite gross at the end, but the kills are more felt than seen. Not very graphic. It’s violent but not all that gory/bloody. Especially considering the last movie Alvarez made.

  7. EtGuild2 says:

    That’s a good point…I was going for originals Bill btw, and it feels weird to compare this movie to the two films above it, PARANORMAL ACTIVITY (Rated R for f-bombs) and CONJURING, but on second thought CONJURING may be gorier than I remember and DON’T BREATHE might be less as you all say. Perhaps THE STRANGERS, which I totally forgot about, is actually the best comparison as michael suggests a home invasion angle. Either way, a $70 million total for this is pretty astounding.

    @Geoff, I don’t know…CAP and DORY were guaranteed smashes, 1-1.3 billion was expected. There’s a case to be made that BFG is the 2nd-biggest bomb of the summer, sadly. So what did Disney really do?

    Also, I couldn’t justify giving Sony a B given nothing really made that much money in a “summer” sense. It appears there are only 5 movies that really raked it in this summer: two from Disney, two from WB (conjuring 2 being the other), and one from Universal. I like your points though.

  8. Christian says:

    I noticed “Little Men” isn’t factoring into the end-of-summer specialty-release wrap-up articles I’m seeing. That’s a shame. I just checked, and the Magnolia release has brought in a little over $300K.

    I saw it Saturday night at the Avalon in D.C., where it’s been playing for over a month. It’s down to just two shows a day, but the theater was so full I had to sit in the front row. It’s a beautiful film, superbly performed.

    Ira Sachs is, to my mind, a much more interesting director to watch after this and “Love Is Strange” than any number of hyped up-and-coming filmmakers.

  9. Movieman says:

    Liked, but didn’t love “Light Between Oceans.” My favorite part was the first third. Once the melodrama kicked in, I kept waiting for that transformative emotional wallop, but it never came.
    Imagine what a “Days of Wrath”/”Ordet”-era Dreyer, or even the “Breaking the Waves”/”Dancer in the Dark” Lars von Trier could have done with the material! At times, I fantasized that I was watching an Ingmar Bergman adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks novel. (Max Von Sydow, Liv Ullmann and Bibi Andersson would have played the leads. I can already picture Sven Nykvist’s luminous b&w cinematography, lol.)
    Did it sit on the shelf for a year because of DreamWorks’ split from Disney, or were there reshoots, etc.?

  10. Geoff says:

    Yeah it is looking increasingly obvious that over the past couple of years, Disney has pretty much dumped their Dreamworks co-productions it seems since Need for Speed under-performed domestically after a pretty aggressive marketing campaign.

    Et and Dave I’m curious, but would that have factored into The BFG as well? Were they just cutting ties to Spielberg with that movie? I honestly don’t know but it seemed that way – seemed ridiculous to launch it just two weeks after ‘Dory especially while that film was still rolling out overseas.

    And yeah Disney definitely did cannabalize themselves a bit this summer – they had WAY too many big budget family films opening in rapid succession: no way Alice 2 had any breathing room with The Jungle Book, ‘Dory, and even Zootopia still chugging overseas.

    “@Geoff, I don’t know…CAP and DORY were guaranteed smashes, 1-1.3 billion was expected. There’s a case to be made that BFG is the 2nd-biggest bomb of the summer, sadly. So what did Disney really do?”

    That’s the thing, I thought there were OTHER guaranteed smashes too: I thought Independence Day Regurgitation was a GUARANTEED $100 million domestic opening a few months back….the audience was there just like Jurassic World a year prior, Fox just didn’t figure out how to connect with them. I thought ‘Ninja Turtles was GUARANTEED to at least out-open it predecessor considering how hard Paramount was pushing it and….they were pushing all of the elements (B-Bop, Casey Jones) that fans had apparently been clamoring for. THESE films were supposed to be “guaranteed smashes” too…but they didn’t happen. ‘Dory and ‘Civil War did what Disney needed them to do….doesn’t mean that Disney doesn’t deserve credit for that.

    I think next summer if Disney STILL opens Pirates 5 three weeks after ‘Guardians 2, then they just didn’t learn their lesson…it’s going to be Tomorrowland and Alice 2 all over again.

    “Also, I couldn’t justify giving Sony a B given nothing really made that much money in a “summer” sense.”

    Yeah Sony’s a tough call too – Ghostbusters not even cracking $250 million WW is a HUGE embarrassment, even forgetting how much money they lost on it. That was supposed to be their PREMIERE franchise and they bungled it completely. But….everything else made pretty good money: Don’t Breathe, The Shallows, Sausage Party, Angry Birds, even Money Monster – ALL of those films more than exceeded 3X their budgets. I might actually give them a B.

  11. EtGuild2 says:

    Yeah I wondered the same thing about BFG…asked about the Dreamworks issue on another blog, but got no response.

    Sony…yeah, maybe this is just them now. Aside from their Marvel assist, only JUMANJI is a clear attempt at a tentpole next summer. Otherwise they’re delivering movies about Barbies and Emojis, a FLATLINERS remake, another horror movie and a ScarJo dramedy. It seems like we’re in a period where Sony and Paramount should be classified separately from the other 4 studios. They are the Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry in the Republican debates…seemingly credible, but deeply flawed as prime-time players these days. At least Sony is hitting singles and doubles lately, though.

  12. Dr Wally Rises says:

    It doesn’t make sense to me that Disney wanted to cut ties to Spielberg on BFG. To me it seems that BFG was a loss leader to land him a bigger fish. Indy 5 was the endgame, BFG was the price they had to pay to get it.

  13. Ray Pride says:

    Ira Sachs gets better each film.

  14. Geoff says:

    Dr. Wally, that’s a really good point – he’s key to rebooting the Indy IP for them.

  15. EtGuild2 says:

    Hmmm I definitely think LOVE IS STRANGE is overrated, and FORTY SHADES is underrated, but yeah I’d put LITTLE MEN at the top.

  16. Stella's Boy says:

    Kubo and the Two Strings is a delightful movie. Really enjoyed it, as did my 8-year-old. However, it is a little weird to watch Charlize Theron, Matthew McConaughey, Rooney Mara, and Ralph Fiennes give voice to Japanese characters. Why not cast Japanese actors? It’s not like Coraline, ParaNorman, or The Boxtrolls have A-list household names as their voice cast. It sure didn’t help Kubo’s box office either.

  17. EtGuild2 says:

    @Stella, Disney did this in their Ghibli deal for dubs (Cate Blanchett, Matt Damon, Joseph Gordon Levitt, you name it) so I guess they’re following suit. I personally find it off-putting, but as LAIKA needs to make bank here to succeed, I guess they thought it was a brilliant idea.

  18. Stella's Boy says:

    Makes sense Ethan and I figured that was the case. But did it really help here? Doesn’t seem like it, and it doesn’t seem like LAIKA has been concerned with famous voice casts in the past. I agree, it’s definitely off-putting.

  19. palmtree says:

    Kubo got called out on the casting, especially since they mentioned Japanese American George Takei in the trailer but failed to mention he was only a small secondary character. Seems someone was trying to cover their asses.

  20. Pete B. says:

    Hey, Cary-Hirouki Tagawa has at least 2 lines in Kubo too!

  21. palmtree says:

    Pete, that’s hilarious and sad. Kung Fu Panda was way better at representation in voice casting…and that was back in 2008 when diversity wasn’t even taken half as seriously as it is today.

  22. Steve D. says:

    It seems a little silly to worry that the voice cast of Kubo was not Japanese enough. When American films get dubbed in Japan (mostly animated films like Frozen), they don’t hire Americans to do it. The voice casts are 100% Japanese.

  23. Stella's Boy says:

    Not Japanese enough? The main voice cast isn’t Japanese at all. I think your defense is a little silly.

  24. palmtree says:

    Honestly, what Japan does should have zero bearing on the US, which has a completely different history and sets of issues. Japan does NOT have an immigrant population and they really discourage immigration. But many Japanese Americans are proud Americans who have been here as long as five or six generations. And they are as American as people in Japan are Japanese. And many of them are really great actors, who are under-utilized by a film industry that doesn’t believe they can sell their names and faces.

    So I guess the point is…let’s not compare apples to oranges.

  25. Krazy Eyes says:

    How does one tell the difference between an Asian-American voice and a non Asian-American voice? They sound the same to me.

  26. YancySkancy says:

    Um, Steve D, maybe I’m dense, but surely the reason that Japanese actors are hired to dub American films into Japanese is because they can, you know, speak Japanese. While I’m sure there must be some Japanese-speaking American actors living in Japan, they probably have no more box office value than their Japanese counterparts. Maybe less.

  27. palmtree says:

    Exactly, Krazy Eyes! Which is why putting George Takei’s name in the trailer is so telling. They wanted his name as a prominent Japanese American to sell their Japanese-themed film, but just forgot to, you know, give him an actual role. That’s what sucks. That even when there’s a great opportunity to feature a great actor of color, they still don’t.

  28. John E. says:

    By the way, don’t read THR’s Magnificent Seven review if you don’t want to read in the first paragraph which ones are alive at the end of the movie.

  29. EtGuild2 says:

    BEHOLD: The power of fetish schoolgirl outfits in Japan.

    https://www.japantoday.com/category/arts-culture/view/harley-quinn-cosplay-spreading-across-japan-ahead-of-suicide-squad-release

    We’ll see if it pops this weekend or not, but it appears the immutable Law of Japanese Box Office is as strong as ever.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
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The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
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The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
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The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4