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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates by The Magnificent Klady

Friday Estimates 2016-09-24 at 9.07.27 AM

Is this the moment where Tom Hanks and Denzel Washington officially become movie star equals? Or has it already happened? Or is Denzel ahead? Or do we credit Chris Pratt?

All moot, really. Denzel has a great September history. We are reminded that he can still open movies. We are reminded that $35m in September is not a surprise.

But mostly, we look at domestic on both of these movies and wonder whether either will play overseas. Genres and all.

Storks barely achieved lift-off. Not a complete car wreck, but under $20m for a major studio animated opening is not good. Is this a loss-leader for international like Ice Age ’16 (now over $400m ww)? Is this the canary in the coal mine for comic book extravaganzas? International often reflects the domestic trend, just a few years later (just as international often doesn’t come on-trend for a year or two).

Weak arthouse weekend. With a couple of niche exceptions, under $5k per screen.

11 Responses to “Friday Estimates by The Magnificent Klady”

  1. Movieman says:

    I’m guessing that Disney had hoped for a much better launch for “Queen of Katwe.” I wonder if they’ll scale back plans to take it to 1,5000 add’l screens next weekend.
    Amazon/Broad Green’s “Dressmaker” nearly did as well, and that had “damaged goods” written all over it.

  2. JWK says:

    Can’t help but be disappointed with the numbers for Magnificent 7. I expected a 40M weekend with the big marketing push and great cast. I hope the legs are good. Problem with good legs forming is the release of Deepwater Horizon next weekend and Girl on the Train the following weekend.

    I wonder of Magnificent will have enough staying power to top 100M?

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    Speaking of QUEEN OF KATWE, it is the last live-action movie on Disney’s slate that isn’t a franchise property…, their whole slate through Thanksgiving 2020. They have a whopping 4 movies due in the next 7 months…a Marvel, a D. Animation, a Star Wars, and BEAUTY AND THE BEAST. I guess their transformation into All Branding All The Time is complete now.

  4. Christian says:

    Don’t forget to support Art House Theater Day! I’m headed to AFI Silver tonight for the 2K print of PHANTASM. That one was never a favorite during my horror-lovin’ teen years in the mid to late ’80s, even though it was a Fangoria fave (I was a subscriber) and was already, by then, considered a cult classic. I’m hoping it feels fresh, or is simply fun to revisit, tonight.

  5. Sideshow Bill says:

    I’m eager to see that print of Phantasm, also. Like you, Christian, it was never a favorite but it’s grown on me. And I love the score. I was a Fango subscriber, too, in my teens to early 20s. Saved every one. Ended up losing them due to their storage in a locker I forgot about after my wife died. Bummer for sure. Luckily there wasn’t much else in there

    Rings being pushed back to February means there would have been Halloween space for Blair Witch. Might have at least opened a bit better then. Lionsgate lost that gamble.

  6. John E. says:

    How is Storks the canary in the coalmine for comic book movies again?

  7. David Poland says:

    Not just Storks, John, but Ice Age domestically as well. There is a point of saturation. There are so many big animated movies now. Exhaustion could finally be fully setting in for those not on the top shelf (As Dreamworks Animation felt already)

    Animation seems untouchable. Isn’t quite anymore.

    Same possibility for comic book movies as we see the number expand to 8 an 9 and more than 10 a year. Trends change.

  8. David Poland says:

    My main memory of Phantasm is “romance” in the back row of the balcony of the theater (which is no longer a theater). Sexy movie! Hee hee. (God, being a teenager has some golden moments.)

  9. Bob Burns says:

    thanks to whomever posted the link to the article about Leonard Cohen’s soon to be released new album.

  10. palmtree says:

    Queen of Katwe may seem like unbranded Disney, but it’s in a line of real-life underdog sports movies featuring people of color. McFarland USA featured Latinos. Million Dollar Arm featured Indians.

    The difference though is Queen of Katwe doesn’t have a Jon Hamm or Kevin Costner to guide the people of color. Every character in Katwe is African. And the focal point of the story isn’t the coach but the female chess star who is a promising newcomer. I’m hoping that doesn’t make it a harder sell, because it really is one of the most sensitive portrayals of modern life in Uganda.

  11. Ray Pride says:

    Glad you read it!

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