Gurus o’ Gold: In The Starting Gate

gurus nov 4 2015

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Spotlight
1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 11 124
2 The Martian
9 6 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 4 2 11 112
3 Room
3 7 7 7 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 11 85
4 Bridge of Spies
7 5 5 4 7 6 6 4 7 6 4 11 82
5 The Revenant
4 4 4 5 4 10 3 3 5 9 75
6 Joy
2 9 2 2 6 5 10 6 2 9 73
7 Brooklyn
5 2 12 6 10 7 5 7 9 11 5 11 64
8 Steve Jobs
8 8 9 11 5 2 7 8 2 10 12 11 61
9 Carol
6 12 6 9 8 11 9 4 3 3 10 59
10 Inside Out
3 11 8 8 8 9 9 7 35
The Hateful 8
10 10 10 9 8 11 11 8 8 27
Mad Max: Fury Road
12 11 10 10 6 12 6 17
Son of Saul
8 12 12 8 4 12
The Danish Girl
11 11 9 12 11 5 11
The BIg Short
12 7 2 7
Youth
12 10 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Sicario
9 1 4
Beasts of No Nation
10 1 3
45 Years
11 1 2
Trumbo
12 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Brie Larson
Room
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 11 74
2 Saoirse Ronan
Brooklyn
4 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 5 6 3 11 51
3 Cate Blanchett
Carol
2 5 3 4 5 4 6 4 2 1 2 11 50
4 Jennifer Lawrence
Joy
3 4 1 2 4 2 3 3 2 9 48
5 Carey Mulligan
Suffragette
5 6 5 4 5 6 4 5 8 24
Lily Tomlin
Grandma
6 6 2 6 5 6 7 5 8 21
Charlotte Rampling
45 Years
5 3 7 7 7 3 7 4 8 21
Charlize Theron
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 6 7 7 6 5 7
Emily Blunt
Sicario
7 7 5 7 4 6
One Vote Wonders
Maggie Smith
The Lady In The Van
4 1 4
Blythe Danner
I'll See You In My Dreams
6 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 MIchael Fassbender
Steve Jobs
2 2 3 6 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 11 63
2 Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
1 1 1 1 2 2 5 1 1 9 57
3 Eddie Redmayne
The Danish Girl
4 3 6 4 3 4 4 7 6 5 4 11 38
4 Matt Damon
The Martian
5 2 2 6 3 5 2 4 7 9 36
5 MIchael Caine
Youth
6 5 5 4 2 4 4 6 5 9 31
Johnny Depp
Black Mass
3 5 7 6 2 7 3 1 8 30
Tom Hanks
Bridge of Spies
6 4 3 3 3 5 21
Steve Carrell
The Big Short
6 2 2 8
Bryan Cranston
Trumbo
7 7 7 5 7 5 7
Ian McKellen
Mr. Holmes
5 7 5 3 7
Will Smith
Concussion
4 7 2 5
One Vote Wonders
Geza Rohrig
Son of Saul
6 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Rooney Mara
Carol
1 6 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 11 69
2 Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
2 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 2 2 11 66
3 Kate WInslet
Steve Jobs
3 3 3 2 2 3 3 5 1 5 3 11 55
4 Jane Fonda
Youth
5 2 4 4 4 5 4 6 3 5 10 38
5 Jennifer Jason Leigh
The Hateful 8
4 4 5 4 4 5 19
Joan Allen
Room
5 6 6 4 6 4 6 17
Elizabeth Banks
Love & Mercy
6 5 7 6 3 4 6 17
Rachel McAdams
Spotlight
7 7 5 7 6 5 8
Kristin Stewart
The Clouds of Sils Maria
6 6 6 3 6
Julie Waters
Brooklyn
7 7 5 3 5
Jessica Chastain
The Martian
5 7 2 4
Helen Mirren
Trumbo
7 7 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Marion Cotillard
MacBeth
7 1 1
Julianne Nicholson
Black Mass
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporing Actor AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
t1 Mark Rylance
Bridge of Spies
4 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 3 1 11 64
t1 Michael Keaton
Spotlight
5 1 2 1 2 1 2 6 1 1 2 11 64
3 Mark Ruffalo
Spotlight
2 6 3 5 3 4 2 4 4 9 39
4 Tom Hardy
The Revenance
1 4 3 3 4 6 7 6 8 30
5 Idris Elba
Beasts of No Nation
3 4 3 4 2 3 6 29
Benicio del Toro
Sicario
2 5 4 4 6 4 5 7 8 27
Paul Dano
Love & Mercy
5 6 5 5 7 1 5 7 5 9 26
Jacob Tremblay
Room
7 7 5 2 6 5 13
Samuel L. Jackson
The Hateful 8
7 5 2 4
Robert DeNiro
Joy
7 6 2 3
Joel Edgerton
Black Mass
7 6 2 3
One Vote Wonders
Edgar Ramirez
Joy
6 1 2
Sylvester Stallone
Creed
6 1 2
Jason Segal
The End of the Tour
7 1 1
Harvey Keitel
Youth
7 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsEllwoodFeinbergHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondNathanielRStoneThompsonWloszczynaWhipp Votes Total
1 Tom McCarthy
Spotlight
1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 4 2 2 11 68
2 Ridley Scott
The Martian
3 1 2 2 1 1 1 5 1 9 55
3 Alejandro Inarritu
The Revenant
4 1 4 6 3 7 3 3 3 9 38
4 George Miller
Mad Max: Fury Road
5 3 4 6 4 2 7 4 8 29
t5 Steven Spielberg
Bridge of Spies
6 4 6 4 7 5 4 6 5 9 25
t5 David O. Russell
Joy
3 2 4 5 1 5 25
Todd Haynes
Carol
2 5 5 5 4 3 6 24
Danny Boyle
Steve Jobs
5 6 3 5 3 6 7 7 21
Lenny Abrahamson
Room
3 5 6 7 7 5 12
Lazlo Nemes
Son of Saul
6 6 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Quentin Tarantino
The Hateful 8
6 1 2
Pete Docter/Ronaldo del Carmen
Inside Out
7 1 1
JJ Abrams
Star Wars 7
7 1 1
Denis Villenueve
Sicario
7 1 1
Angelina Jolie
By The Sea
7 1 1
John Crowley
Brooklyn
7 1 1

18 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold: In The Starting Gate”

  1. Danny says:

    Come on, you all know Will Smith is getting that nomination.

    You all slept on (and refused to consider) American Sniper last year. Week after week we told yall to wake up and include it.
    And there you go: 6 Oscar nominations (including Best Picture, Editing, Actor).

    This year it seems Steve Jobs and Son of Saul will be the films the weird Gurus will dismiss.

    And Will Smith.

  2. Daniella Isaacs says:

    You can’t compare STEVE JOBS to AMERICAN SNIPER, Danny. JOBS has the “stink” of being a big money loser for Hollywood (which is a shame, since it’s a good film), whereas, when the voting took place for SNIPER (before it’s wide release, admittedly), Eastwood’s film was rightly thought to be another big success. The Academy doesn’t mind occasionally voting for small films that don’t make much money for them (HURT LOCKER) but they don’t vote for films that they know left a huge puddle of red ink on the ledgers. As for Will Smith, you may be right. Unless that film is really bad (has anyone seen it? Have you? Maybe it is) the Academy had BETTER fairly consider it. They don’t want another “Oscar So White” protest again this year.

  3. Patryk says:

    I have heard Jane Fonda’s performance lasts 2.5 minutes. And people are still bitching about Beatrice Straight and Judi Dench winning for perfs with more screen time.
    Is she that beloved by the Academy? Is it really good enough to keep Elizabeth Banks or Joan Allen out of one of the entirely appropriate spots? With Vikander and Mara dubiously up for “supporting” roles, and Kate Winslet riding on Fassbender’s work (Come on, that accent is bogus), one would hope the true supporting actresses win their deserved consideration.

  4. Daniella Isaacs says:

    Patryk, I spend some time with people from Eastern Europe including Poland. I thought Winslet’s accent was actually spot on. It’s a hard accent to do, and it does sound “wrong” to our ears sometimes. I knew a guy from Bulgaria who had such a strange sounding accent that people, upon first meeting him, occasionally thought he was putting them on! Just sayin’.

    And Melinda Dillon received an Oscar nomination for ABSENCE OF MALICE when she was only on screen for something like 2-3 minutes, and she’s hardly as beloved as Fonda. It could happen, though you are right that it doesn’t quite seem appropriate. Though, it’s less unfair, really, than someone who’s a lead coming into the supporting category and beating REAL supporting performances.

  5. Gustavo says:

    It is a myth that Jane Fonda is in YOUTH for just two minutes. One scene that lasts at least 5 minutes, then two other shorter ones.

  6. Glamourboy says:

    Have all these films been seen? When I see these lists I always wonder which predictions are based on fact and which are based on faith…

  7. movielocke says:

    Heart of the sea is this year’s sniper.

    Onside out can’t get enough number ones to avoid being eliminated in round one.

  8. movielocke says:

    1. Joy
    2. Bridge of Spies
    3. The Martian
    4. Spotlight
    5. Brooklyn
    6. The hateful 8
    7. In the heart of the sea
    8. Revenent
    9. Star wars
    10. Room

  9. Jerry says:

    It is shocking to see Jacob Tremblay in 8th place so far behind the others. I think he is much closer than that but perhaps A24 spending almost to advertise their films has him so far behind.

  10. Joe Gillis says:

    I think it’s embarrassing that all of you are trying to make predictions for films that you haven’t seen – that NO ONE has seen yet – like Joy, Hateful 8, and Revenant. Stick to making predictions for films that you already have seen and know are good enough to be featured in the conversation.

  11. Jerry says:

    Joe Gillis is pretty silly since that would be no Oscar predictions until mid December.

  12. Daniella Isaacs says:

    And Joe seems to think our personal reactions to the films is the only barometer, too. That’s actually one of the least reliable barometers. We don’t have to see CAROL to know from industry sources that TWC isn’t supporting it very well right now, but, that, on the other hand it won an award at Cannes and has the support of critics; therefore we can make predictions about it. Sheesh. Every year there are people who are absolutely stunned that, say, THE DARK KNIGHT didn’t get nominated for 10 Oscars, because… well they saw it and it was obviously “the best.” Not how it works.

  13. movieman says:

    Another Best Supporting Actress nominee w/ minimal screen time:
    Jane Alexander in “All the President’s Men.”

  14. Vanessa says:

    Pretty decent predictions, although I think The Martian is currently the one to beat for BP.

    Best Actress is interesting. I don’t see a clear frontrunner to win. It could go in so many different directions. If Lawrence delivers, she could win her second. But I think it’ll go to a newbie this year.

    2015 seems like it’s shaping up to be Leo’s year in the same way that 2008 was Kate’s year. Fassbender is benefitting from quality at this point (he really is outstanding) but the disappointing box office will hurt him for the win. The movie is simply too great to ignore, so it will go back to getting glowing press like it did during the festival circuit, but a nomination will be as far as he goes. Voters are reluctant to award “flops”. I’m predicting that this will be Leo’s race to lose. We just have to wait and see if he delivers and if he does, that’s it.

    First three ladies in Supporting Actress are pretty much unmovable at this point. They’ve been up there from the beginning and aren’t budging. There is no strong case for any of them being snubbed. Kate has already come out completely unscathed by SJ box office. Fonda is a big question mark. I would put Leigh over her. I also wouldn’t count out someone from Joy. DOR seems to have a knack for racking up acting nominations. The last 2 spots are definitely still open.

    I can see Keaton winning Supporting Actor, maybe as a makeup for last year. I also think De Niro is way too low on the list.

  15. Sam says:

    You all are seriously underestimating BROOKLYN.

    Spotlight is obviously this year’s BOYHOOD, and it is way too emotionally devoid to be a Best Picture winner.
    It’s too meagre. Too low brow. There is no emotional pay-off. So it is not winning Best Picture. AMPAS voters will make sure of that.

    BROOKLYN is going to sweep. And these Gurus will proclaim it a shock and surprise. But we all know it won’t be.

  16. Ffranco says:

    Bryan Cranston is FANTASTIC in “Trumbo”

  17. Ffranco says:

    Tom Hardy as Demonic Twins in Legend is Excellent, and Eddie Redmayne is again OUTSTANDING in “The Danish Girl” add in Michael Fassbender, and there is only one spot left. But these 4 gave the Best performances by a lead actor so far this year!

  18. Ffranco says:

    Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
    Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl
    Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
    Tom Hardy in Legend

    and either Leonardo, Depp, McKellen, or Caine