MCN Blogs
David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by S.O.K.


21 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by S.O.K.”

  1. movieman says:

    I loved the Bogdanovich movie.
    Such a fun, slick, expertly played farce (and Aniston has never been better).
    Can’t understand how it wound up as a VOD D&D w/ “limited theatrical” release.

  2. EtGuild2 says:

    9 of the Top 10 American Box Office hits of 2015 were now released by either Universal or Disney. It’s almost September. That’s tough to wrap your head around.

    It’s amazing that in a record-breaking summer, 3 of the 6 “major” studios (WB, Sony, Fox) will probably lose money. A 4th (Paramount) is close to break-even.

    Btw…with all the drama around F4, ANT-MAN has quietly outperformed and is sneaking up on CAP and THOR. No wonder theres buzz (HAH!) re: Evangeline Lilly as Wasp.

    Most profitable MCU movies by Box Office, not starring RDJ:

    1. Guardians
    2. Cap 2
    3. Thor 2
    4. Ant-Man (assuming it does bare minimum in Asia)
    5. Thor 1
    6. Cap 1
    7. The Incredible Hulk

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    To be fair, MI:5, VACATION, THE GIFT *AND* ANT-MAN have held unusually well for multiple weeks. And it hasn’t coincided with a major box office dip. This is a good thing.

    VACATION, pegged as a bomb, has made probably only a bit less than the studio initially expected at $52 mil (hopes for a breakout are a different story).

    THE GIFT? $35 million for an R-Rated directorial debut, distributed by an upstart is INSANE. Go Edgerton.

  4. movieman says:

    I bet none of the people (including some WB execs) who wrote opening weekend b.o. obits for “Vacation” thought it would outgross “U.N.C.L.E.”

  5. Delgado says:

    The failure of AMERICAN ULTRA this weekend reminds me of what happened on this weekend 6 years ago to another comedy that had to find an audience on Epix, THE GOODS: LIVE HARD, SELL HARD. I wonder if Lionsgate should have held back on this movie until next year and released it after BATMAN VS. SUPERMAN and the NOW YOU SEE ME sequel, to make next summer the Summer of Eisenberg the way this year has been the Summer of Giamatti. Obviously “Kristen” will appear in 3 or 4 straight-to-VOD releases each year, as is her custom, but I wonder if she’ll get a starring role in a wide-release movie for the rest of her 20s. Maybe she can become the female Ethan Hawke and do nothing but long-delayed indies and Blumhouse movies.

  6. cadavra says:

    Spot on about the Bogdanovich, movieman. Why anyone would open an adult-driven movie (when adults are the one demo that clearly wants to go out to the movies but is frustrated by the lack of things they’d like to see) D&D with VOD is simply bewildering. If the Blythe Danner picture–which almost nobody under 50 saw–can get close to $8 million, then FUNNY certainly could have gotten there as well.

  7. Jack says:

    More important box office news:

    “Terminator Genisys” opened huge in China, and the film is very likely to become the first Hollywood film in history to earn over $400m worldwide while also failing to crack $100m in USA. (thanks to China, the sequel is likely to get made.)

  8. movieman says:

    Check out what I said re: “She’s Funny” on the “Grandma” blog, Cad.

  9. movieman says:

    Puzzled as to why “Sinister 2″ and “Hitman” got such shitty reviews (under 10% on RT) while so many worse movies (“U.N.C.L.E.,” “Minions,” “F7,” the dread “San Andreas,” etc., etc.) routinely get a pass.
    For late-summer genre throwaways, “S2″ and “Agent 47″ aren’t bad.

  10. Smith says:

    Movieman, Cad – She’s Funny That Way has received mostly terrible reviews – 34% on RT, 44% on Metacritic. Glad you both liked it, and I’m looking forward to seeing it, but I imagine the reviews would’ve been the kiss of death even if Lionsgate had aggressively pushed for a wider release.

  11. movieman says:

    That kills me, Smith.
    So many of my critical brethren bend over backwards to give thumb’s up to trash w/ a strong fanboy base (e.g., juvenile comic book stuff and brainless franchises like the “F&F” movies) for fear they’ll appear uncool to the geek squad. (Since we all know that geeks rule the world–at least the internet.)
    Yet they love shitting on anything that doesn’t have the appearance of “cool,” “trendy” or “now.” And an old-fashioned romantic farce directed by Peter Bogdanovich, in 2015, no less, is apparently the ultimate in unhip to most of them. Hence, those ridiculous RT and Meta ratings.
    Hope you get a chance to see “She’s Funny” and enjoy it as much as me and Cad.

  12. cadavra says:

    Indeed. Because FUNNY got such a limited release, it was reviewed mostly by young third-stringers who don’t get it. I’m sure Turan, Dargis, et al would have viewed it much more favorably.

    And NO ESCAPE gets the full release because they blow shit up!

  13. leahnz says:

    i’m to the point now where i expect movies that get a full on mainstream wide release will quite likely to be middling-mediocrities (or worse; always exceptions here and there but in general), thank goodness for the festivals and limited release flicks hanging in there – cinema’s circling the drain but i continue to carry a little tea-strainer in my handbag and live in hope

  14. Doug R says:

    I’d call Fury Road quite the exception.

  15. leahnz says:


  16. Bulldog68 says:

    Just brutal ain’t it.
    Boxofficeguru tweet: “17 days into its run & #FantasticFour STILL hasn’t made as much as past FF pics did on just their opening wknds!”

    Just wished it didn’t happen to a talented bunch of young actors like these guys.

  17. Hallick says:

    The success of “San Andreas” deserves more ridicule than the failure of “Fantastic Four”, but like the man said, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.

  18. movieman says:

    Nice “Unforgiven” reference, Hallick!
    23 years ago that was WB’s big August release.
    This year?
    “The Man From U.N.C.L.E.”
    (Or is it “We Are Your Friends”?)

  19. cadavra says:

    Oh, man, what a crushing disappointment U.N.C.L.E. was. Nothing in common with the series except the character names and the period setting–and they didn’t even get THAT right. Where are the narrow lapels and skinny ties? Where is the bright red lipstick? Why are they always called “Russians” and not “Soviets?” Nobody “jogged” in 1963, and if they did, they didn’t call it that. And how come no one smokes, not even the goddamn Nazis? Not since X-MEN: FIRST CLASS has a major movie felt less like the year it takes place in.

    What’s really depressing is that 1) Ritchie did this instead of that long-promised sequel to ROCKNROLLA, 2) Armie Hammer can’t buy a hit to save his soul, 3) Elizabeth Debicki was utterly wasted, and most importantly, studios will apparently never learn to be faithful to their source. Did they learn nothing from THE LONE RANGER, PEABODY & SHERMAN, BEWITCHED, I SPY, et al?

  20. leahnz says:

    not only ‘soviets’ as per the era, but CCCP as per the correct authentic soviet abbreviation (i have a CCCP olympic team sweatshirt someone can borrow for their period flick if anyone cares to get it right for fucks sake)

    “Nice “Unforgiven” reference, Hallick!
    23 years ago that was WB’s big August release.”

    you lie, movieman, everybody knows good movies for people of the non-children variety only get released in the hallowed ‘quarterly october-to-december oscar dog-n-pony show window’!

  21. Triple Option says:

    The original Man From U.N.C.L.E was before my time. I remember watching the old The Avengers series as a late Saturday night re-run but never watched UNCLE. I agree though, apart from when they took Gaby shopping, and a couple of shots early on, it certainly didn’t look or feel like the 60s. That was pretty disappointing. I realize pacing then as compared to film & TV of today is much different but can you at least make it feel like the thing didn’t happen last Tuesday.

    I wouldn’t mind diverging from the source material if these big budget adaptations of shows or remakes ever tried to put the heart of the original in the new releases. I’m not sure when I first saw Get Smart as a kid, quite some time since the new episodes were being produced, but it original, great and funny. Charming, may be a good word. And yes, I get there’s only one Don Adam, and I know they didn’t go back in time for the setting but there was nothing, absolutely NOTHING, about the film from ’08, yikes, has it been that long?? – that resembled brilliance or hilarity of the original show. It’s not like Steve Carell isn’t funny. It’s like they said, “OK, we’ll give you a trench coat and call you 99, slap Get Smart on across the top and that’ll be good enough.”

    I know I have to consider that though I’m not old enough to have seen the new releases of UNCLE, I’m older than the studio’s target demo. I’d be surprised if they, knowing even less about the original series, would have thought this new release was anything special.

The Hot Blog

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4