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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Estimates by Rogue Klady

Weekend Estimates 2015-08-02 at 10.16.40 AM

So Mission: Impossible- Rogue Nation did a bit better over the weekend than expected, at least in estimates, which is good. Another $85m overseas… also good. Now the movie needs to do the work. The Fantastic Four numbers are going to be interesting. The two previous films opened in the high-50s, even with nasty reviews. It would be surprising if this one doesn’t do likewise. The week after, also theoretically in the way of strong legs for M:I5, I expect The Man From U.N.C.L.E. to underwhelm at the box office… I’d love to be wrong, but I haven’t seen an ad that convinces me yet, and I am a fan of Armie’s and a deep believer in Vikander. That said, there is plenty of elasticity for M:I5 to do 4x or even 5x opening if the audience reaction is super-strong. It really is on the film.

Vacation is not all audiences ever wanted. In a 4-tier summer for wide releases ($90m+, $45m-$70m, $22m-$34m, and $5m-$17m), Vacation is in Tier 4 with every other comedy except Spy and Ted 2. Amazingly, Warner Bros owns this tier with 6 of its 11 entries this summer. WB only has 2 non-Tier 1 openings this summer, both in Tier 3. And Dan Fellman seems to have paid the price.

Ant-Man continues to track about $10m behind the first Captain America, seemingly heading to around $165m domestic. The film will crack $300m worldwide this weekend and has really only started its international run, so it has a real chance at outdoing Cap worldwide when all is said and done.

Trainwreck is heading to and just past $100m domestic.

Mr. Holmes cracks $10 million and is now Top 5 for Roadside Attractions all-time.

Seeing Mad Max: Fury Road fighting to catch up with and pass (barely) San Andreas on domestic box office is painful. I’ll be rooting extra hard for a Best Picture slot for the film, as it deserves the respect, even if audiences didn’t offer it.

As noted yesterday, strong limited starts for The End of The Tour (or according to Vulture, The End of the Affair), The Best of Enemies, and Listen To Me Marlon.

71 Responses to “Weekend Estimates by Rogue Klady”

  1. movieman says:

    Kind of surprised “Testament of Youth” didn’t catch on w/ its buzzy young cast and very strong reviews.

  2. chris says:

    Being a “fan of Armie’s” will definitely help. To me, not necessarily a fan, his lack of personality is what holds “U.N.C.L.E.” back from being really fun.

  3. EtGuild2 says:

    MINIONS is certainly a strange beast. It’s going to end up passing DESPICABLE ME 2 internationally before even opening in China, and will likely end as the 2nd biggest overseas animated movie ever behind FROZEN, but it’s been completely overshadowed (thankfully) this summer.

  4. eric says:

    If Fantastic Four does overperform and get into the $50 million range it will be because of regular joblo moviegoer and not fanboys/movie buffs. It seems like a good portion of the general audiences have a pavlovian response to see any comic book movie regardless of whether the reviews are good, bad, or indifferent. At least on opening weekend. Word of mouth will take care of it after that. Hopefully that strong Mission wom keeps it from getting hurt by Fantastic Four too much.

  5. movieman says:

    Finally caught up w/ “Tangerine” this afternoon.
    Wow! It’s one of those (increasingly) rare movies I hated to see end.
    Would love it if HBO spun it off into a series–w/ the same cast, director, iPhone, etc.
    It’s my favorite L.A. movie since “Into the Night” 30 years ago.
    On the basis of this and “Starlet,” Sean Baker is the real deal.
    (Fingers crossed he doesn’t get seduced over to the dark side and wind up directing Marvel Comic Book merchandise.)

  6. Ray Pride says:

    Try TAKE OUT, if you can find it. Baker’s definitely bright side-averse.

  7. movieman says:

    I actually saw “Take Out,” Ray.
    And–holy crap–I just realized I have a copy of Baker’s “Prince of Broadway” laying around the house that (for one reason or another: most likely time) I never got around to.
    Guess I’ll have to make a point of watching “Prince” sometime this week.

  8. Ray Pride says:

    Lucky! Those four features together… Perhaps the Duplass factory will again come in on whatever’s next for Baker.

  9. Jack says:

    “Mad Max: Fury Road” flopped at box office because it is not a good film, and R-rating is box office poison. (The film’s IMDB rating is dropping, proving more and more audience are annoyed by how overrated the film is.)

    I think “Mad Max: Fury Road” will get no major nominations at Oscar. if “The Dark Knight” couldn’t get major nominations at Oscar, why “Mad Max: Fury Road” can? (especially “The Dark Knight” is a much better film than “Mad Max: Fury Road”; “The Dark Knight” is a truly masterpiece, while “Mad Max: Fury Road” is just a highly overrated film.)

    beside, Warner Bros wouldn’t pay more money to do Oscar campaign for “Mad Max: Fury Road”.
    Warner Bros have another four strong awards plays: “Our Brand Is Crisis”, “In the Heart of the Sea”, “Pan” and “Black Mass”. Why would Warner Bros spend more money on this Mad disaster (which is already one of the biggest money loser in 2015)?

  10. Hmmm says:

    Your taste is shit, Jack.

  11. Pete B. says:

    His taste is MEDIOCRE!

  12. Hmmm says:

    Better joke. Well done.

  13. brack says:

    Mad Max wasn’t a money loser. Blackhat is probably the biggest money loser of 2015, at least of major film releases (though I’d argue Blackhat was dumped).

  14. Jack says:

    “Mad Max: Fury Road” is a money loser. A $200 million movie grossing only $370 million worldwide is a money loser. (Warner Bros’s $150 million figure is clearly wrong.)

    Taste is subjective. However, “Mad Max: Fury Road” performed weakly at box office, it also only got B+ Cinemascore rating, so clearly mainstream audience don’t buy it.

    Agd then, if the much-better “The Dark Knight” couldn’t get major nominations at Oscar, “Mad Max: Fury Road” wouldn’t too. Even if Oscar really want to award a genre film, they would not award “Mad Max: Fury Road”; Oscar will award “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”.

  15. palmtree says:

    An equal amount of circumstantial evidence proves Mad Max is a success and will get lots of Oscars nominations, so there!

  16. Hallick says:

    “However, ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ performed weakly at box office, it also only got B+ Cinemascore rating, so clearly mainstream audience don’t buy it.”

    Here’s the headline in Jack’s mind: “Mad Max: Fury Road gets a B+, damned with high praise by audiences”.

  17. Jack says:

    For Cinemascore standard, B+ is weak. Even films like TERMINATOR GENISYS, TED 2 and SELF/LESS got B+.

  18. Hmmm says:


  19. EtGuild2 says:

    Jack: No.

    Keep in mind MAD MAX wasn’t released in China. So the studio share of international gross is much higher than a regular release (essentially, it “grossed” $410 million worldwide). And no, it didn’t hit $200 million…180 maybe. And I’m going to give you some breaking news: some titles find new life on the home market.

  20. Jack says:

    Deadline reported that MAD MAX budget is $200 million-plus.

    Looks like MAD MAX will not be an overperformer in home market, too. In’s Blu-ray pre-sales chart, MAD MAX is being outsold by PITCH PERFECT 2, CINDERELLA, MINIONS, FURIOUS 7 and others, so look likes there is no miracle in here.

  21. Pete B. says:

    Just curious Jack, did George Miller run over your dog or something?

    And why wouldn’t those other movies be tracking higher in pre-sales? Most of them are kid-friendly. And MM:FR is the only one rated R.

  22. Arisp says:

    Mad max is an action movie masterpiece. Joe and Jane popcorn are morons. End of story.

  23. Mostly Lurking says:

    A couple of quick points. First, I’d be remiss if I didn’t show some appreciation for David’s subtle Go Go’s reference. A bit of a stretch, but I certainly appreciate the effort.

    As for Mad Max receiving a nomination when The Dark Knight could not, I believe the Dark Knight was the last year of five nominations, with the whole point of the expansion being so that films like The Dark Knight and Mad Max would have a better shot.

  24. PTA Fluffer says:

    Naysaying Jacks of the world can’t change the fact that MM:FR arrived as a remarkable piece of transgressive art compared to most of these big ticket digital baubles called movies. It is a love letter to the idea of pure cinema whose admirers will only grow over time. In fact, let’s all agree RIGHT NOW to meet back here in five or ten years to discuss how the picture’s reputation has aged.

  25. Ray Pride says:

    CinemaScore and Deadline rule!!

  26. amblinman says:

    “Agd then, if the much-better “The Dark Knight”

    It’s all subjective yada yada but..G. T. F. O. The Dark Knight was okay, people just lost their collective shit over it at the time because a.) Ledger and b.) Nolan remade Heat with comic book characters.

    Whoop dee fuckin doo.

  27. Chris says:

    ‘“Mad Max: Fury Road” flopped at box office because it is not a good film.’

    I can think of at least two things that are wrong with this sentence.

  28. Tuck Pendelton says:

    Mad Max: FR will make money…eventually. With DVD’s and TV and the (I’m sure) many special edition discs coming in the next few years. Will eventually make dough. But Lets keep it real, the trailer with completed special effects debuted at Comic Con LAST year, they clearly were hoping for +200 domestic.

    To correct Jack on one thing, they ain’t going to do an award push for “Pan.” those other three, sure, but not Pan.

  29. js partisan says:

    I dig Fury Road, but it’s so much like Rango. It’s not even funny.

  30. Doug R says:

    That’s because animation forced Gore Verbinski into a tight story structure, so it was Pirates without the padding.

  31. PanopticonNYC says:

    Re: Mad Max falling down the IMDB Top 250…. it’s still in the top 100 films of ALL TIME and is the #2 film of 2015 next to Inside Out. I’d argue for such a bizarre, R-Rated, 2 hour action film with little franchise recognition (ask your average person on the street, and most would have heard of Jurassic Park… not so much the original Mad Max films)… I’d say $370 million (without China) is pretty damned good.

    And it’s a masterpiece, so DVD/Blu-Ray and streaming will have legs.

  32. Jack says:

    Brent Lang (the Variety writer) also said that “Mad Max: Fury Road” will lose money and doesn’t justify sequel.

    “Mad Max: Fury Road” is a box office flop, and it won’t get any sequel (and major Oscar nominations). It is time to get real.

  33. palmtree says:

    Sequels have been made for movies far less successful or deserving. Enough with the spin.

  34. leahnz says:

    jack’s a persistent little fucker isn’t he

  35. Bulldog68 says:

    I wish Max would get some Academy love, but I doubt it would get any in the major categories.

    That being said Jack, seems like you have some kind of bug up your ass. Captain America topped out at $370m worldwide on about the same budget and no one was crying that it bombed at the box office.

  36. Hcat says:

    Not only will Pan not get an awards push, it’s box office is going to make Max look great in comparison. I don’t see this thing crossing a hundred domestic.

    As for the other titles Warner’s almost always has one or two prestige titles collapse upon release (cloud atlas). Now I am not saying that title or the others weren’t great movies but their Oscar picture is certainly different in November than August. In August of 08 you would have probably expected a bigger push for Body of Lies than Dark Knight, yet when the former arrived with a thud…..

  37. leahnz says:

    box office = quality
    imbd ratings = quality
    oscar campaigns/noms = quality
    cinema score = quality
    presales = quality

    hahahaha (this has got to be satire right? if not, then it’s a scary glimpse at the current “what’s this thinking thing again?” zeitgeist of ‘movie fans’)

  38. YancySkancy says:

    ditto leah

    Whether Fury Road made a nickel or gets any awards should hardly matter to those who dig it, and even less to those who don’t. Except this guy Jack, I guess.

  39. Jack says:

    The box office disappointment of “Mad Max : Fury Road” does matter.

    Warner Bros won’t make Mad Max sequel. On the other hand, it would also lead other studios to be more risk-averse (and less willing to make R-rated adult films).

  40. palmtree says:

    MORE risk-averse? Can you even hear yourself?

  41. Nux says:

    Jack is everything wrong with the internet.

  42. scooterzz says:

    is jack related to io? the patois seems very familiar…just wondering….

  43. Hcat says:

    Wow this must be your first day on the Internet.

    But you can’t fault Warner’s for overspending that would be like curseing the birds for singing.

  44. Warren says:

    I suspect Jack might be one of those MRAs that hate Mad Max because of the Charlize Theron character.

  45. Jack says:

    Sorry, but I don’t think “Mad Max : Fury Road” is a good feminist movie; “Pitch Perfect 2″ is a truly good feminist movie, and it seems like a lot of women agree with that.

  46. leahnz says:

    why am i always so hopeful of satire and it turns out to be just garden variety idiocy

    (i don’t think ‘jack’ is io/js unless it’s some alter-ego thing; must admit i hadn’t thought about a ‘fury road’/’rango’ comparison — ‘Chinatown’ by way of the ‘man with no name’ flicks with a touch of high noon and blazing saddles, even star wars, comes to mind when Rango-ing — but now it’s in my head i can see it)

  47. amblinman says:

    “Warner Bros won’t make Mad Max sequel. On the other hand, it would also lead other studios to be more risk-averse (and less willing to make R-rated adult films).”

    Oh bullshit. Studios are already risk averse and already less willing to make R-rated adult films. Even if Max had been the biggest movie of the summer, the only lesson the studios would take away from it is “DUDE! See, Fast and Furious works in *any* setting! Let’s make more of those!”

    Don’t worry, Jack. There won’t be any more Max’s because there aren’t any more George Millers out there. Enjoy Batman V Superman II: MId-afternoon Of Vengeance.

  48. PcChongor says:

    At this point, isn’t it pretty obvious who “Jack” really is?

    Hint: He was in the first three Mad Max movies, fought for freedom against the British while wearing a mullet, and blames the Jews for letting “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” get to “Lethal Weapon 5″ first.

  49. js partisan says:

    Jack, doesn’t come close to writing anything like me. Also, I enjoyed fucking Mad Max, even if the fucking TRAILERS DID NOTHING FOR ME! Seriously, they were terrible at conveying how awesome that movie is. Warners should make a sequel, because they are FUCKING WARNERS! They can afford it.

  50. Triple Option says:

    Meh, I didn’t think the latest Mad Max was all that, either. I wasn’t that engrossed by the story. Things were flying about but nothing really surprised me. I didn’t find any of the characters to be that compelling or add a sense of irony. I get what he was trying to do in keeping objects center focus all the time but there were times when I wanted the camera to pull back and capture all the chaos. Every post apocalypse film has a focus on an unexpected natural resource, this one had two. Unfortunately they were played out more dramatically irl by TSA agents and mailmen who deliver the annual SI Swimsuit edition to the wrong address.

    The good news for those who loved it, I’m sure you’ll be able to find it in the $5 bin at Best Buy come Christmas time 2016.

  51. Amblinman says:

    “The good news for those who loved it, I’m sure you’ll be able to find it in the $5 bin at Best Buy come Christmas time 2016.”

    You could say that about every movie released this summer. Physical media retains no value over a year after release.

    Oh. You were taking a shot at the movie. Whoops!

  52. Hcat says:

    It could maybe, MAYBE, get a sequel if they found a way to bring it in around a hundred million and got someone outside like a legendary or sky dance to pick up half the risk, but seeing as it didn’t even clear clash of the titans box office along with the fact that potter spinoffs DC heros and Lego films are going to be sucking up all the production cash and prime release dates……I am thinking a sequel is highly unlikely,

    And that’s what’s such a shame about these comic book universal monster shared universe attempts, they’re going to taking up precious resources and real estate. I am fine with marvel since Disney would just make some other POS instead, but based on the early reviews of Fantastic Four it sounds like Fox could have used the money better by greenlighting John Cena in Firestorm 2: Firestormier!

  53. Ray Pride says:

    Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, by David Lowery, and the Winnie the Pooh movie by Alex Ross Perry.

  54. PcChongor says:

    And Joe Swanberg’s “Everyone Poops.”

  55. Bulldog68 says:

    The early reviews on The Gift are excellent however. Could this be the one surprise blockbuster for adults that no one saw coming?

  56. Hmmm says:

    It’s not going to make any money because the campaign is incompetent.

  57. Stella's Boy says:

    I am psyched for The Gift. Reminds me of awesome ’90s fare like Unlawful Entry. But yeah I don’t see it making much money. Release date isn’t great.

  58. Hcat says:

    Ray Pride – I can understand the optimism in the pairing those directors with those titles….but were you equally optimistic on Bird getting Tomorrowland, Raimi doing Oz, or Stanton getting John Carter?

  59. Bulldog68 says:

    Release date, schmelease date. It’s all about the movie.
    The Sixth Sense, The Butler, The Help, Space Cowboys, Unforgiven, Julie & Julia, Dangerous Minds, all found varying degrees of success with August openings.

    After a summer of men in tights, fast cars, and rampaging beasts, an adult thriller could be just be coming in at the right time.

    I’m not predicting it will be a smash, I’m just saying it could surprise.

  60. Ray Pride says:

    I didn’t mean to indicate optimism, just that Disney is still making off-the-wall pairings with material.

  61. Stella's Boy says:

    Schmelease? And yes many movies have been successful in August. Never said otherwise. It’s definitely possible Bulldog, but I feel like many males who might otherwise be interested will pick the new superhero movie and many females who might otherwise be interested will pick the new Meryl Streep movie, leaving The Gift with scraps. But I hope you’re right. I want it to do well.

  62. Pete B says:

    Waiting for Jack to resurface to say that the fact there were only 6 patrons in the Tennessee theater that the hatchet-welding gunman showed up at is further proof that MM:FR isn’t a money maker.

  63. Bulldog68 says:

    9% Rotten Tomato score for FF. Wow. I think that’s the worst of the summer. When your score is half of what Pixels got, that’s really bad.

  64. Amblinman says:

    Well. Guess Trank won’t be, like, working. Ever again.

  65. brack says:

    The Gift looks okay, but the trailer I just saw recently appears to spoil the whole plot, so I’ll probably just wait for Redbox/streaming or whatever.

  66. amblinman says:

    Funny, you mention waiting for streaming. I just paid to watch “Extinction” (Matthew Fox zombie movie…I was in the mood…it happens). Anyway, as I”m watching it I realized this is exactly the kind of movie that lands on Netflix almost weeks after it appears on VOD. I wonder how movies like that make a cent (like Creep with Duplass. That was on Netflix so quickly after VOD. The Netflix rights can’t possibly be that lucrative).

  67. brack says:

    I guess if a VOD movie isn’t in too much of a demand (no pun intended), you’ll probably take whatever money you can get.

  68. YancySkancy says:

    Don’t the Duplass brothers have some sort of standing deal with Netflix?

  69. Fitzgerald says:

    Netflix deals for lower budget festival films (like say the upcoming 6 Years) can actually be, relative to the budget, lucrative. It is increasingly a top home for fresh, high quality, but not “breakout commercial” indies. I’m assuming it’s worth paying what they’re paying, in whatever model they have, to establish that identity.

  70. movieman says:

    If there was any justice in Hollywood, Meryl Streep would be reduced to the sort of gargoyle roles Davis and Crawford had to scramble for in their twilight years.
    La Streep as the new (femme) Jigsaw in a “Saw” reboot?
    Sounds about right to me.

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