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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

Friday Estimates by Modest Fireworks Klady

Friday Estimates 2015-07-04 at 8.42.17 AM

For reference…
Wednesday/Thursday numbers
Terminator: Genisys – $15.5m
Inside Out – $15.2m
Magic Mike XXL – $15m
Jurassic World – $12.9m

So, a lot of opening heat for Magic Mike XXL  and Terminator: Genisys followed by less. This is the double-edged sword of Wednesday openings, though in this case, it is wildly complicated by the Saturday U.S. national holiday. On one hand, you get your core to show up early. On the other hand, your ability to expand past the base is inhibited by the holiday.

In any case, $30 million and change for MMXXL in 5 days is still a win for a relatively inexpensive film and it should show strong summer legs. $45 million-ish for Gen T over 5 is not so thrilling and the reviews and buzz don’t seem likely to inspire a second wave.

Holdovers Jurassic World and Inside Out continue their mighty runs. Pixar is going to win the weekend, but the dinos have won the war.

Melissa McCarthy is about to have her fourth $100m grosser in five years. It’s amusing to read people hypothesize about the power of women at the cinema, but Melissa McCarthy is a phenom of funny, not gender. Kristen Wiig may get the finger snaps, but Melissa McCarthy is a bona fide box office star and Wiig has not become one… at least, not yet. McCarthy’s power resembles that of Will Ferrell at similar points in their movie careers.

In indieville, there are some decent results. Dope is almost done and Me & Earl & The Dying Girl are slot by slot, as M&E continues a slow expansion. I’m fascinated by the perception out there that Dope did poorly. It did more than Whiplash without the months of passionate love being expressed or the Oscar run. What it didn’t do is Kevin Hart or Top Five numbers. But I don’t know how a movie with no stars (of the black community or the rest of stardomland) and no apparent street cred was expected to do more. It would have had to become a phenomenon. And that just didn’t happen.

Amy is killing it with $60k per screen for the 3-day on five, showing the public’s continuing interest in experiencing music docs in theaters.

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24 Responses to “Friday Estimates by Modest Fireworks Klady”

  1. Jerryishere says:

    I think you mean Wednesday/Thursday numbers

  2. Doug R says:

    Inside Out’s showing some legs already.
    Ted 2 not so much.

  3. Bulldog68 says:

    Thought for sure that Ted2 and Terminator would be locks for $100m. Magic Mike not so much. At least Ted and Mike are cheap. But for Terminator that’s a disastrous opening. That 3 day Fri/Sun is Battleship numbers. They are going to be counting every penny of those international numbers.

  4. movieman says:

    Wow.
    I can’t remember the last time a sequel to a comedy smash was as universally rejected by audiences as “Ted 2.”
    Yeah, there was “Horrible Bosses 2,” but the original–while a decent-sized hit–made a fraction of the cash “Ted” did.

  5. Bulldog68 says:

    Hangover 3 comes to mind. From $254m to $112m. But this worse from a gross standpoint. From a budget standpoint, they’ll still turn a profit.

  6. movieman says:

    It’s like there was a big meeting of “Ted” fans somewhere, and they all decided they didn’t like the foul-mouthed teddy bear and his stoner buddy anymore.
    Not being a fan of either movie (or of Seth MacFarlane), I don’t really give a shit.
    But the universal rejection of the sequel–and it wasn’t like MacFarlane and Wahlberg waited too long between movies or anything–is mystifying.

  7. movieman says:

    The failure of “Earl” to catch on–I actually thought it might replicate the success of FS’s “(500) Days of Summer” from six summers ago–feels really odd, too.
    Maybe “Dying” is a turn-off.

  8. Doug R says:

    It’s not mystifying. Ted 2 has a lot of not funny spots. It’s like they had 1 1/2 movies worth of ideas, Ted 2 is the 1/2.

  9. dinovelvet says:

    Eh, I dunno, I found Ted 2 to be just as funny as the first one, and the trailer got big laughs every time I saw it.

    No idea why it’s being mass rejected? The review scores were lower, but its not like 48% on rottentomatoes is an out and out disaster. The first one was a great word of mouth hit with a 54 opening and 218 finish. (By comparison, Hangover 2 had much worse reviews yet still almost doubled the opening weekend of the first one). Novelty wore off? Mila Kunis’ all powerful fanbase staying away? Did the court case/civil rights angle come off as too preachy? Jurassic Park/Inside Out combo destroying everything in its path?

  10. Big G says:

    All of the above, I think, dino.

  11. John E. says:

    Looks like we won’t be getting Terminator: Exxodis, but probably get Jurassic World 2 in 2018 and Inside Out 2 around 2023.

    I was the only guy at a showing of Magic Mike XXL and many of the women hooted and hollered like they were at an actual strip show. I see it having long-term camp value.

    Paul Blart 2, Ted 2, Magic Mike 2 all eliminated the love interest from their first movies by having them dump the protagonists. Which seems out of character for what we saw from them in the first movie. Someone else can write the thinkpiece on it.

  12. Kevin says:

    Saw DOPE today and I loved the hell out of it.

    Rick Famuyiwa for BLACK PANTHER?

  13. JS Partisan says:

    Chadwick Boseman is Black Panther. See him next year in CIVIL WAR! Come for the Avengers! Leave for Giant Man!

    Ted 2’s fate, will be judged internationally. If it can some how manage to make 500/600m worldwide, then everything will be gravy. Hold on. Universal has SDM and Minions coming next weekend this Summer. They probably don’t even care about Ted 2 sucking domestically.

    SDM is ridiculous. It’s ridiculous, and it would be nice to live in a world where Inside Out and SDM flipped grosses, but Inside Out is still doing what a movie up against a fucking phenom can do.

    Finally, does anyone else think Minions can outgross SDM’s opening weekend next weekend? I can totally see Minions having a stupid big opening, because it’s not like it’s predecessor’s weren’t two of the biggest animated movies ever.

  14. Ray Pride says:

    What is SDM?

  15. Tracker Backer says:

    JS said:

    “Chadwick Boseman is Black Panther.”

    Hey, bozo, Rick Famuyiwa is the director of Dope, not the star. That’s why Kevin mentioned him for Black Panther.

    And what is “SDM?”

  16. Bulldog68 says:

    WTF is SDM?

  17. Mr. Peel says:

    Maybe there’s a SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE reboot we don’t know about.

  18. PcChongor says:

    I think Marvel forgot to update JS with the latest patch and now its algorithm is starting to go haywire:

    “‘Star-Man’ is going to FUCKING DESTROY ‘Ant Wars’ this Christmas!”

  19. Tracker Backer says:

    Looking at the context, “SDM” is apparently his abbreviation for Jurassic World, though I have no idea why.

  20. Big G says:

    SDM = “Sucky Dinosaur Movie”???

  21. Geoff says:

    So is it ok to just refer to Avengers: Age of Ultron as MMS now??

  22. Amblinman says:

    Watched T2 last night, haven’t seen it in years. Jesus does it still hold up, even the effects. What a perfect summer movie. Makes me sad that we’ve lost Cameron up his own Avatar hole.

  23. JS Partisan says:

    STUPID DINOSAUR MOVIE!

    Geoff, you really shouldn’t try that hard.

    Tracker, excuse me, Princess!

    Man, for fucking real. He made the biggest movie of all time, so he had to go and fucking expand on it. Which sucks, because Battle Angel should have come out, like in 1998!

  24. dinovelvet says:

    John E – Interesting Ted/Mike/Blart parallels there. I don’t know anything about the Blart movies (other than they waited way too long to do a sequel – Taken put out two sequels in the time it took for Blart to do one), but the other two are following the exact same pattern.

    June 2012 – Ted and Magic Mike open on the same weekend, Ted 54, Mike 39, both with positive reviews, both performing better than predicted

    June/July 2015 – Ted and Magic Mike sequels open within 5 days of each other. Both lose a key cast member (McConaughey/Kunis), both come in with lesser reviews, both separate the hero from the love interest from the first one. Ted 2 opens with 33, Mike with 21 (first 3 days), down 61 and 54 per cent each from the original, both under predictions/tracking. Mike had a 60% drop on its second weekend, I expect this one will also get a 65 drop to match Ted.

    What does any of this mean? I dunno. Sometimes you should just leave hit movies as a one off?

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I feel strongly connected to young cinephile culture. The thing about filmmaking—and cinephilia—is that you can’t keep hanging out with your own age group as you get older. They drop off, move somewhere. You can’t put together a crew of sixty-somethings. It’s the same for cinephilia: my original set of cinephile friends are watching DVDs at home or delving into 1958 episodes of ‘Gunsmoke,’ something like that. The people who are out there tend to be young, and I happen to be doing the same thing still, so it’s natural that I move in their circles.

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